Flood risk assessment through large-scale  modeling under uncertainty

Pavesi, Luciano; Volpi, Elena; Fiori, Aldo

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

Research article

|

10 Dec 2024

Research article |

| 10 Dec 2024

Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty

Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori

Data sets

Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics Eurostat https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/nuts

Gross domestic product (GDP) of the NUTS 3 regions at current market prices Eurostat https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nama_10r_3gdp/default/table?lang=en

Confini dei comuni italiani Istat https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/222527

HANZE v2.0 exposure model input data [Data set]. In Scientific Data (v2.0, Vol. 10, Number 372) D. Paprotny https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6783023

Short summary

Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.