How well are hazards associated with derechos  reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Shepherd, Tristan; Letson, Frederick; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Pryor, Sara C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 12

Research article

|

10 Dec 2024

Research article |

| 10 Dec 2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024-supplement

Data sets

ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis D. P. Dee et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f2f5241d

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service and Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

ASOS five minute (temporal resolution) data National Centers for Environmental Information https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/asos-fivemin/Inventory/

Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), National Centers for Environmental Information https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/radar/next-generation-weather-radar

Storm Events Database National Centers for Environmental Information https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents

UCAR/NCAR - Earth Observing Laboratory, NCEP/EMC 4\,KM Gridded Data (GRIB) Stage IV Data, Version 1.0 J. Du https://doi.org/10.5065/D6PG1QDD

Public Data Derecho Case T. J. Shepherd http://portal.nersc.gov/archive/home/projects/m2645/www/public_data_derecho_case

Model code and software

A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 W. C. Skamarock et al. https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH

Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 4 W. C. Skamarock et al. https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97

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Short summary

A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.