Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 10 Dec 2024
| 10 Dec 2024
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
Frederick Letson
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
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Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, 2021
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are pronounced maxima in wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine performance and longevity. We present a climatology of LLJs over Iowa using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and determine the rotor plane conditions when they occur. LLJ characteristics are highly sensitive to the identification criteria applied, and different (unique) LLJs are extracted with each criterion. LLJ characteristics also vary with different model output resolution.
Sara C. Pryor, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 651–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, 2018
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The interannual variability (IAV) of annual energy production (AEP) from wind turbines due to IAV in wind speeds from proposed wind farms plays a key role in dictating project financing but is only poorly constrained. This study provides improved quantification of IAV over eastern N. America using purpose-performed long-term numerical simulations. It may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to preconstruction AEP estimates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.
Kelsey B. Thompson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-37, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
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Wind turbines in offshore lease areas (LA) along the eastern U.S. may be impacted by hurricanes. Regional simulations with atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave regional models well reproduce historical hurricanes and indicate no exceedance of 50 m s-1 wind speeds in the LA and only brief periods with low power production. Coupled simulations lead to more intense hurricanes possibly indicating that previous atmosphere-only simulations underestimate the risk to offshore wind turbines.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Ville Vakkari, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 821–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, 2024
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Knowing the wind speed across the rotor of a wind turbine is key in making good predictions of the power production. However, models struggle to capture both the speed and the shape of the wind profile. Using machine learning methods based on the model data, we show that the predictions can be improved drastically. The work focuses on three coastal sites, spread over the Northern Hemisphere (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the US Atlantic coast) with similar results for all sites.
Rebecca Foody, Jacob Coburn, Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 263–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, 2024
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Using lidar-derived wind speed measurements at approx. 150 m height at onshore and offshore locations, we quantify the advantages of deploying wind turbines offshore in terms of the amount of electrical power produced and the higher reliability and predictability of the electrical power.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1651–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, 2023
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are special types of non-ideal wind profiles affecting both wind energy production and loads on a wind turbine. However, among LLJ researchers, there is no consensus regarding which definition to use to identify these profiles. In this work, we compare two different ways of identifying the LLJ – the falloff definition and the shear definition – and argue why the shear definition is better suited to wind energy applications.
Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, 2021
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Low-level jets (LLJs) are pronounced maxima in wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine performance and longevity. We present a climatology of LLJs over Iowa using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and determine the rotor plane conditions when they occur. LLJ characteristics are highly sensitive to the identification criteria applied, and different (unique) LLJs are extracted with each criterion. LLJ characteristics also vary with different model output resolution.
Frederick W. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kevin I. Hodges, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2001–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, 2021
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Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high-population-density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but have intensities 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, 2020
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Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is potentially a significant source of energy loss and expense for wind farm operators. This study presents a novel approach to characterizing LEE potential from precipitation across the contiguous USA based on publicly available National Weather Service dual-polarization RADAR data. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments.
Rebecca J. Barthelmie and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3463–3484, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3463-2019, 2019
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Wakes are volumes of air with low wind speed that form downwind of wind turbines. Their properties and behaviour determine optimal turbine spacing in wind farms. We use scanning Doppler lidar to accurately and precisely measure wake characteristics at a complex terrain site in Portugal. We develop and apply an automatic processing algorithm to detect wakes and quantify their characteristics. In higher wind speeds, the wake centres are lower. Wake centres are also lower in convective conditions.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Weifei Hu, and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3797–3819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, 2019
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Wind gusts are a key driver of aerodynamic loading, and common approximations used to describe wind gust behavior may not be appropriate in complex terrain at heights relevant to wind turbines and other structures. High-resolution observations from sonic anemometers and vertically pointing Doppler lidars collected in the Perdigão experiment are analyzed to provide a foundation for improved wind gust characterization in complex terrain.
Sara C. Pryor, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 651–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, 2018
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The interannual variability (IAV) of annual energy production (AEP) from wind turbines due to IAV in wind speeds from proposed wind farms plays a key role in dictating project financing but is only poorly constrained. This study provides improved quantification of IAV over eastern N. America using purpose-performed long-term numerical simulations. It may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to preconstruction AEP estimates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.
Paula Doubrawa, Alex Montornès, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Pau Casso
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-61, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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We perform time-resolved, high-resolution simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer with a numerical weather prediction model. The downscaling is done within the model by defining nested domains, and we investigate different ways of treating turbulence modeling at intermediate spatial scales in which traditional turbulence parameterizations are inadequate. We focus on quantities of interest to wind energy and compare the simulations with measurements collected at a complex-terrain site.
Sara C. Pryor, Ryan C. Sullivan, and Justin T. Schoof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14457–14471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14457-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14457-2017, 2017
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The air temperature and water vapor content are increasing globally due to the increased concentration of "heat-trapping" (greenhouse) gases. But not all regions are warming at the same rate. This analysis is designed to improve understanding of the causes of recent trends and year-to-year variability in summertime heat indices over the eastern US and to present a new model that can be used to make projections of future events that may cause loss of life and/or decreased human well-being.
Paola Crippa, Ryan C. Sullivan, Abhinav Thota, and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1511–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1511-2017, 2017
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Here we quantify WRF-CHEM sensitivity in simulating meteorological, chemical and aerosol properties as a function of spatial resolution.
We demonstrate that WRF-Chem at high resolution improves model performance of meteorological and gas-phase parameters and of mean and extreme aerosol properties over North America. A dry bias in specific humidity and precipitation in the coarse simulations is identified as cause of the better performance of the high-resolution simulations.
H. Wang, R. J. Barthelmie, P. Doubrawa, and S. C. Pryor
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4123–4139, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4123-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4123-2016, 2016
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This paper investigates how long a sampling duration of lidar measurements should be in order to accurately estimate radial velocity variance to obtain turbulence statistics. Using observations and statistical simulations, it is demonstrated that large probe volumes in lidar measurements increase the autocorrelation values, and consequently the uncertainty in radial velocity variance estimates. It is further shown that the random error can exceed 10 % for 30–60 min sampling duration.
Hui Wang, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Gareth. Brown
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1653-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1653-2016, 2016
P. Crippa, R. C. Sullivan, A. Thota, and S. C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 397–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-397-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-397-2016, 2016
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We evaluate the performance of high-resolution simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry in capturing spatiotemporal variability of aerosol optical properties by comparison with ground- and space- based remote-sensing observations and investigate causes of model biases. This work contributes to assessing the model's ability to describe drivers of aerosol direct radiative forcing in the contemporary climate and to improving confidence in future projections.
F. Yu, G. Luo, S. C. Pryor, P. R. Pillai, S. H. Lee, J. Ortega, J. J. Schwab, A. G. Hallar, W. R. Leaitch, V. P. Aneja, J. N. Smith, J. T. Walker, O. Hogrefe, and K. L. Demerjian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13993–14003, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13993-2015, 2015
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The role of low-volatility organics in new particle formation (NPF) in the atmosphere is assessed. An empirical formulation in which formation rate is a function of the concentrations of sulfuric acid and low-volatility organics significantly overpredicts NPF in the summer.
Two different schemes predict quite different nucleation rates (including their spatial patterns), concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei, and aerosol first indirect radiative forcing in North America.
S. C. Pryor, K. E. Hornsby, and K. A. Novick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11985–11996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11985-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11985-2014, 2014
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What role do forests play in determining the concentration (and composition) of climate-relevant aerosol particles? This study seeks to address two aspects of this question. Firstly, we document high in-canopy removal of recently formed particles. Then we show evidence that growth rates of particles are a function of soil water availability via a reduction in canopy emissions of gases responsible for particle growth to climate-relevant sizes during drought conditions.
J. Ortega, A. Turnipseed, A. B. Guenther, T. G. Karl, D. A. Day, D. Gochis, J. A. Huffman, A. J. Prenni, E. J. T. Levin, S. M. Kreidenweis, P. J. DeMott, Y. Tobo, E. G. Patton, A. Hodzic, Y. Y. Cui, P. C. Harley, R. S. Hornbrook, E. C. Apel, R. K. Monson, A. S. D. Eller, J. P. Greenberg, M. C. Barth, P. Campuzano-Jost, B. B. Palm, J. L. Jimenez, A. C. Aiken, M. K. Dubey, C. Geron, J. Offenberg, M. G. Ryan, P. J. Fornwalt, S. C. Pryor, F. N. Keutsch, J. P. DiGangi, A. W. H. Chan, A. H. Goldstein, G. M. Wolfe, S. Kim, L. Kaser, R. Schnitzhofer, A. Hansel, C. A. Cantrell, R. L. Mauldin, and J. N. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6345–6367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, 2014
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2331–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, 2025
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Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2225–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2225-2025, 2025
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The authors performed verification on the relationships between extreme monsoon rainfall over Japan and Pacific sea surface temperature variability in the “database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate changes” (d4PDF). Observations showed widespread weak relationships between hourly extremes and the warming mode but reversed relationships between daily extremes and the decadal variability mode. Biases in d4PDF could be explained by the monsoon's slower movement over Japan in the model.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1865–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025, 2025
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The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
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Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
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Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
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A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the most extreme episodes globally during that year. The extreme rainfall was significantly underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and economic losses. We examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall based on simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
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We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
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In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
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During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
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This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
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We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
Killian P. Brennan, Iris Thurnherr, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-918, 2025
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Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation.
Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, 2025
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In the 2023/24 season, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heatwaves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2°C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to 1 in 3 fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heatwaves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
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Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
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We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
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We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
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Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
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We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
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Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Lixin Song, Feifei Shen, Zhixin He, Dongmei Xu, Aiqing Shu, and Jiajun Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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When retrieving hydrometeors from reflectivity, there are two methods to allocate hydrometeor types: temperature-based and background hydrometer-dependent schemes. The temperature-based method divides hydrometeor proportions based on the background temperature, while the other scheme calculates average weights of each hydrometeor in various reflectivity intervals from background fields. The blending scheme adaptively combines these methods and is found to improve precipitation forecast accuracy.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
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The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
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The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
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This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
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Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
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The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
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Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
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Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
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Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Diego Saúl Carrió, Vincenzo Mazzarella, and Rossella Ferretti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Populated coastal regions in the Mediterranean are known to be severely affected by extreme weather events that are initiated over maritime regions. These weather events are known to pose a serious problem in terms of numerical predictability. Different Data Assimilation techniques are used in this study with the main aim of enhancing short-range forecasts of two challenging severe weather events.
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
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Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanova, Karim Rizwan, Hassen Babaousmail, Mirindra Finaritra Tanteliniaina Rabezanahary, Kokou Romaric Posset, Donnata Alupot, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022 by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3, -6 and -12). Additionally, the impact of drought on vegetation over the studied area was assessed based on the relationship evaluation between SPI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2022.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
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To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
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European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
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Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
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The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
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A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
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Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
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We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
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High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
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Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Xiaoxiang Guan, Dung Viet Nguyen, Paul Voit, Bruno Merz, Maik Heistermann, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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We evaluated a multi-site stochastic regional weather generator (nsRWG) for its ability to capture the cross-scale extremity of high precipitation events (HPEs) in Germany. We generated 100 realizations of 72 years of daily synthetic precipitation data. The performance was assessed using WEI and xWEI indices, which measure event extremity across spatio-temporal scales. Results show nsRWG simulates well the extremity patterns of HPEs, though it overestimates short-duration, small-extent events.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
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What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
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The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
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EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
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Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths...
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