Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 10 Dec 2024
| 10 Dec 2024
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
Frederick Letson
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
Related authors
Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are pronounced maxima in wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine performance and longevity. We present a climatology of LLJs over Iowa using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and determine the rotor plane conditions when they occur. LLJ characteristics are highly sensitive to the identification criteria applied, and different (unique) LLJs are extracted with each criterion. LLJ characteristics also vary with different model output resolution.
Sara C. Pryor, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 651–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variability (IAV) of annual energy production (AEP) from wind turbines due to IAV in wind speeds from proposed wind farms plays a key role in dictating project financing but is only poorly constrained. This study provides improved quantification of IAV over eastern N. America using purpose-performed long-term numerical simulations. It may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to preconstruction AEP estimates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.
Kelsey B. Thompson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-37, 2025
Preprint under review for WES
Short summary
Short summary
Wind turbines in offshore lease areas (LA) along the eastern U.S. may be impacted by hurricanes. Regional simulations with atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave regional models well reproduce historical hurricanes and indicate no exceedance of 50 m s-1 wind speeds in the LA and only brief periods with low power production. Coupled simulations lead to more intense hurricanes possibly indicating that previous atmosphere-only simulations underestimate the risk to offshore wind turbines.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Ville Vakkari, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 821–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the wind speed across the rotor of a wind turbine is key in making good predictions of the power production. However, models struggle to capture both the speed and the shape of the wind profile. Using machine learning methods based on the model data, we show that the predictions can be improved drastically. The work focuses on three coastal sites, spread over the Northern Hemisphere (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the US Atlantic coast) with similar results for all sites.
Rebecca Foody, Jacob Coburn, Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 263–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using lidar-derived wind speed measurements at approx. 150 m height at onshore and offshore locations, we quantify the advantages of deploying wind turbines offshore in terms of the amount of electrical power produced and the higher reliability and predictability of the electrical power.
Christoffer Hallgren, Jeanie A. Aird, Stefan Ivanell, Heiner Körnich, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Erik Sahlée
Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 1651–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-1651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are special types of non-ideal wind profiles affecting both wind energy production and loads on a wind turbine. However, among LLJ researchers, there is no consensus regarding which definition to use to identify these profiles. In this work, we compare two different ways of identifying the LLJ – the falloff definition and the shear definition – and argue why the shear definition is better suited to wind energy applications.
Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets (LLJs) are pronounced maxima in wind speed profiles affecting wind turbine performance and longevity. We present a climatology of LLJs over Iowa using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and determine the rotor plane conditions when they occur. LLJ characteristics are highly sensitive to the identification criteria applied, and different (unique) LLJs are extracted with each criterion. LLJ characteristics also vary with different model output resolution.
Frederick W. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kevin I. Hodges, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2001–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high-population-density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but have intensities 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Wind Energ. Sci., 5, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-331-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is potentially a significant source of energy loss and expense for wind farm operators. This study presents a novel approach to characterizing LEE potential from precipitation across the contiguous USA based on publicly available National Weather Service dual-polarization RADAR data. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments.
Rebecca J. Barthelmie and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 3463–3484, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-3463-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Wakes are volumes of air with low wind speed that form downwind of wind turbines. Their properties and behaviour determine optimal turbine spacing in wind farms. We use scanning Doppler lidar to accurately and precisely measure wake characteristics at a complex terrain site in Portugal. We develop and apply an automatic processing algorithm to detect wakes and quantify their characteristics. In higher wind speeds, the wake centres are lower. Wake centres are also lower in convective conditions.
Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Weifei Hu, and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3797–3819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3797-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Wind gusts are a key driver of aerodynamic loading, and common approximations used to describe wind gust behavior may not be appropriate in complex terrain at heights relevant to wind turbines and other structures. High-resolution observations from sonic anemometers and vertically pointing Doppler lidars collected in the Perdigão experiment are analyzed to provide a foundation for improved wind gust characterization in complex terrain.
Sara C. Pryor, Tristan J. Shepherd, and Rebecca J. Barthelmie
Wind Energ. Sci., 3, 651–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-3-651-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The interannual variability (IAV) of annual energy production (AEP) from wind turbines due to IAV in wind speeds from proposed wind farms plays a key role in dictating project financing but is only poorly constrained. This study provides improved quantification of IAV over eastern N. America using purpose-performed long-term numerical simulations. It may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to preconstruction AEP estimates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.
Paula Doubrawa, Alex Montornès, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Pau Casso
Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-61, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We perform time-resolved, high-resolution simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer with a numerical weather prediction model. The downscaling is done within the model by defining nested domains, and we investigate different ways of treating turbulence modeling at intermediate spatial scales in which traditional turbulence parameterizations are inadequate. We focus on quantities of interest to wind energy and compare the simulations with measurements collected at a complex-terrain site.
Sara C. Pryor, Ryan C. Sullivan, and Justin T. Schoof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14457–14471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14457-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14457-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The air temperature and water vapor content are increasing globally due to the increased concentration of "heat-trapping" (greenhouse) gases. But not all regions are warming at the same rate. This analysis is designed to improve understanding of the causes of recent trends and year-to-year variability in summertime heat indices over the eastern US and to present a new model that can be used to make projections of future events that may cause loss of life and/or decreased human well-being.
Paola Crippa, Ryan C. Sullivan, Abhinav Thota, and Sara C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1511–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1511-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Here we quantify WRF-CHEM sensitivity in simulating meteorological, chemical and aerosol properties as a function of spatial resolution.
We demonstrate that WRF-Chem at high resolution improves model performance of meteorological and gas-phase parameters and of mean and extreme aerosol properties over North America. A dry bias in specific humidity and precipitation in the coarse simulations is identified as cause of the better performance of the high-resolution simulations.
H. Wang, R. J. Barthelmie, P. Doubrawa, and S. C. Pryor
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4123–4139, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4123-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4123-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how long a sampling duration of lidar measurements should be in order to accurately estimate radial velocity variance to obtain turbulence statistics. Using observations and statistical simulations, it is demonstrated that large probe volumes in lidar measurements increase the autocorrelation values, and consequently the uncertainty in radial velocity variance estimates. It is further shown that the random error can exceed 10 % for 30–60 min sampling duration.
Hui Wang, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor, and Gareth. Brown
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1653-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1653-2016, 2016
P. Crippa, R. C. Sullivan, A. Thota, and S. C. Pryor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 397–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-397-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-397-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of high-resolution simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry in capturing spatiotemporal variability of aerosol optical properties by comparison with ground- and space- based remote-sensing observations and investigate causes of model biases. This work contributes to assessing the model's ability to describe drivers of aerosol direct radiative forcing in the contemporary climate and to improving confidence in future projections.
F. Yu, G. Luo, S. C. Pryor, P. R. Pillai, S. H. Lee, J. Ortega, J. J. Schwab, A. G. Hallar, W. R. Leaitch, V. P. Aneja, J. N. Smith, J. T. Walker, O. Hogrefe, and K. L. Demerjian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13993–14003, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13993-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The role of low-volatility organics in new particle formation (NPF) in the atmosphere is assessed. An empirical formulation in which formation rate is a function of the concentrations of sulfuric acid and low-volatility organics significantly overpredicts NPF in the summer.
Two different schemes predict quite different nucleation rates (including their spatial patterns), concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei, and aerosol first indirect radiative forcing in North America.
S. C. Pryor, K. E. Hornsby, and K. A. Novick
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11985–11996, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11985-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11985-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
What role do forests play in determining the concentration (and composition) of climate-relevant aerosol particles? This study seeks to address two aspects of this question. Firstly, we document high in-canopy removal of recently formed particles. Then we show evidence that growth rates of particles are a function of soil water availability via a reduction in canopy emissions of gases responsible for particle growth to climate-relevant sizes during drought conditions.
J. Ortega, A. Turnipseed, A. B. Guenther, T. G. Karl, D. A. Day, D. Gochis, J. A. Huffman, A. J. Prenni, E. J. T. Levin, S. M. Kreidenweis, P. J. DeMott, Y. Tobo, E. G. Patton, A. Hodzic, Y. Y. Cui, P. C. Harley, R. S. Hornbrook, E. C. Apel, R. K. Monson, A. S. D. Eller, J. P. Greenberg, M. C. Barth, P. Campuzano-Jost, B. B. Palm, J. L. Jimenez, A. C. Aiken, M. K. Dubey, C. Geron, J. Offenberg, M. G. Ryan, P. J. Fornwalt, S. C. Pryor, F. N. Keutsch, J. P. DiGangi, A. W. H. Chan, A. H. Goldstein, G. M. Wolfe, S. Kim, L. Kaser, R. Schnitzhofer, A. Hansel, C. A. Cantrell, R. L. Mauldin, and J. N. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6345–6367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored the possibility of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Adding mixtures of 3 to 5 amendment types substantially increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion and increased microorganism abundance, while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Cited articles
Adams-Selin, R. D., van den Heever, S. C., and Johnson, R. H.: Impact of graupel parameterization schemes on idealized bow echo simulations, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1241–1262, 2013.
Allen, J. T.: Climate change and severe thunderstorms, in: Oxford research encyclopedia of climate science, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.62, 2018.
Alpert, J. C. and Kumar, V. K.: Radial wind super-obs from the WSR-88D radars in the NCEP operational assimilation system, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 1090–1109, 2007.
Ashley, W. S. and Mote, T. L.: Derecho hazards in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1577–1592, 2005.
Bachmann, K., Keil, C., Craig, G. C., Weissmann, M., and Welzbacher, C. A.: Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational Forecasts: Effects of Radar Data Assimilation, Orography, and Synoptic Weather Regime, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-19-0045.1, 2020.
Banacos, P. C. and Ekster, M. L.: The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States, Weather Forecast., 25, 1082-1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010waf2222363.1, 2010.
Barrett, A. I., Wellmann, C., Seifert, A., Hoose, C., Vogel, B., and Kunz, M.: One Step at a Time: How Model Time Step Significantly Affects Convection-Permitting Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 641-658, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001418, 2019.
Bedard, A., Hooke, W., and Beran, D.: The Dulles airport pressure jump detector array for gust front detection, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 58, 920–927, 1977.
Bentley, E. S. and Logsdon, J.: An Examination of the Mesoscale Environment and Evolution of the Northern Indiana/Northwest Ohio Derecho of 29 June 2012, Elect. J. Severe Storms Metereol., 11, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.55599/ejssm.v11i1.61, 2016.
Blumberg, W. G., Halbert, K. T., Supinie, T. A., Marsh, P. T., Thompson, R. L., and Hart, J. A.: SHARPpy: An Open-Source Sounding Analysis Toolkit for the Atmospheric Sciences, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1625–1636, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-15-00309.1, 2017.
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., and Craven, J. P.: The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data, Atmos. Res., 67, 73–94, 2003.
Brown, A. and Dowdy, A.: Severe Convective Wind Environments and Future Projected Changes in Australia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2021JD034633, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034633, 2021a.
Brown, A. and Dowdy, A.: Severe convection-related winds in Australia and their associated environments, J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci., 71, 30–52, https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19052, 2021b.
Cattiaux, J. and Yiou, P.: U.S. Heat waves of spring and summer 2012 from the Flow-Analogue perspective [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”], B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, S10–S13, 2013.
Celiñski-Mysław, D. and Matuszko, D.: An analysis of selected cases of derecho in Poland, Atmos. Res., 149, 263–281, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.06.016, 2014.
Chen, Q., Fan, J., Hagos, S., Gustafson Jr., W. I., and Berg, L. K.: Roles of wind shear at different vertical levels: Cloud system organization and properties, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 6551–6574, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023253, 2015.
Coniglio, M. C. and Stensrud, D. J.: Simulation of a Progressive Derecho Using Composite Initial Conditions, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 1593–1616, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1593:Soapdu>2.0.Co;2, 2001.
Coniglio, M. C., Corfidi, S. F., and Kain, J. S.: Environment and Early Evolution of the 8 May 2009 Derecho-Producing Convective System, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1083–1102, 2011.
Copernicus Climate Change Service and Climate Data Store: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023.
Cordeira, J. M., Metz, N. D., Howarth, M. E., and Galarneau, T. J.: Multiscale Upstream and In Situ Precursors to the Elevated Mixed Layer and High-Impact Weather over the Midwest United States, Weather Forecast., 32, 905–923, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-16-0122.1, 2017.
Corfidi, S. F., Coniglio, M. C., Cohen, A. E., and Mead, C. M.: A proposed revision to the definition of “derecho”, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 935–949, 2016.
Crum, T. D., Saffle, R. E., and Wilson, J. W.: An update on the NEXRAD program and future WSR-88D support to operations, Weather Forecast., 13, 253–262, 1998.
Dai, D., Chen, L., Ma, Z., and Xu, Z.: Evaluation of the WRF physics ensemble using a multivariable integrated evaluation approach over the Haihe river basin in northern China, Clim. Dynam., 57, 557–575, 2021.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., and Bauer, D. P.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011a.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A.J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.:: ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f2f5241d, 2011b.
Du, J.: UCAR/NCAR – Earth Observing Laboratory, NCEP/EMC 4 KM Gridded Data (GRIB) Stage IV Data, Version 1.0, UCAR/NCAR – Earth Observing Laboratory [data set], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6PG1QDD, 2011.
Dudhia, J.: Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3077–3107, 1989.
Engerer, N. A., Stensrud, D. J., and Coniglio, M. C.: Surface characteristics of observed cold pools, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 4839–4849, 2008.
Evans, J. S. and Doswell, C. A.: Examination of derecho environments using proximity soundings, Weather Forecast., 16, 329–342, 2001.
Fan, J., Liu, Y.-C., Xu, K.-M., North, K., Collis, S., Dong, X., Zhang, G. J., Chen, Q., Kollias, P., and Ghan, S. J.: Improving representation of convective transport for scale-aware parameterization: 1. Convection and cloud properties simulated with spectral bin and bulk microphysics, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3485–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022142, 2015.
Fan, J., Han, B., Varble, A., Morrison, H., North, K., Kollias, P., Chen, B., Dong, X., Giangrande, S. E., Khain, A., Lin, Y., Mansell, E., Milbrandt, J. A., Stenz, R., Thompson, G., and Wang, Y.: Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I – Convective updrafts, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 9351–9378, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026622, 2017.
Federico, S., Torcasio, R. C., Avolio, E., Caumont, O., Montopoli, M., Baldini, L., Vulpiani, G., and Dietrich, S.: The impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the very short-term rainfall forecasts of RAMS@ISAC: application to two case studies in Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019.
Fierro, A. O., Gao, J., Ziegler, C. L., Mansell, E. R., MacGorman, D. R., and Dembek, S. R.: Evaluation of a cloud-scale lightning data assimilation technique and a 3DVAR method for the analysis and short-term forecast of the 29 June 2012 derecho event, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 183–202, 2014.
Fovell, R. G. and Ogura, Y.: Effect of vertical wind shear on numerically simulated multicell storm structure, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3144–3176, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3144:Eovwso>2.0.Co;2, 1989.
Gatzen, C.: A Derecho in Europe: Berlin, 10 July 2002, Weather Forecast., 19, 639–645, 2004.
Gatzen, C. P., Fink, A. H., Schultz, D. M., and Pinto, J. G.: An 18-year climatology of derechos in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020.
Geerts, B. W. A. F.: Estimating Downburst-Related Maximum Surface Wind Speeds by Means of Proximity Soundings in New South Wales, Australia, Weather Forecast., 16, 261–269, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0261:EDRMSW>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
Guastini, C. T. and Bosart, L. F.: Analysis of a progressive derecho climatology and associated formation environments, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 1363–1382, 2016.
Haberlie, A. M. and Ashley, W. S.: Climatological representation of mesoscale convective systems in a dynamically downscaled climate simulation, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1144–1153, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5880, 2019.
Hacker, J. P., Exby, J., Gill, D., Jimenez, I., Maltzahn, C., See, T., Mullendore, G., and Fossell, K.: A Containerized Mesoscale Model and Analysis Toolkit to Accelerate Classroom Learning, Collaborative Research, and Uncertainty Quantification, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1129–1138, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-15-00255.1, 2017.
Halverson, J. B.: A mighty wind: The derecho of June 29, 2012, Weatherwise, 67, 24–31, 2014.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hohenegger, C., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Predictability mysteries in cloud-resolving models, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2095–2107, 2006.
Houze Jr., R. A.: Mesoscale convective systems, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG4003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000150, 2004.
Hu, H., Leung, L. R., and Feng, Z.: Observed warm-season characteristics of MCS and non-MCS rainfall and their recent changes in the Central United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086783, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086783, 2020.
Jeworrek, J., West, G., and Stull, R.: Evaluation of cumulus and microphysics parameterizations in WRF across the convective gray zone, Weather Forecast., 34, 1097–1115, 2019.
Jiménez, P. A., Dudhia, J., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Montávez, J. P., and García-Bustamante, E.: A revised scheme for the WRF surface layer formulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 898–918, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00056.1, 2012.
Johns, R. H. and Hirt, W. D.: Derechos: Widespread convectively induced windstorms, Weather Forecast., 2, 32–49, 1987.
Johnson, A.: Multiscale characteristics and evolution of perturbations for warm season convection-allowing precipitation forecasts: Dependence on background flow and method of perturbation, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1053–1073, 2014.
Johnson, A. and Wang, X.: A Study of Multiscale Initial Condition Perturbation Methods for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 2579–2604, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-16-0056.1, 2016.
Johnson, A., Wang, X., Carley, J. R., Wicker, L. J., and Karstens, C.: A comparison of multiscale GSI-based EnKF and 3DVar data assimilation for midlatitude convective-scale precipitation forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 3087–3108, 2015.
Johnson, J., MacKeen, P. L., Witt, A., Mitchell, E. D. W., Stumpf, G. J., Eilts, M. D., and Thomas, K. W.: The storm cell identification and tracking algorithm: An enhanced WSR-88D algorithm, Weather Forecast., 13, 263–276, 1998.
Judt, F.: Insights into Atmospheric Predictability through Global Convection-Permitting Model Simulations, J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 1477–1497, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0343.1, 2018.
Kain, J. S.: The Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization: An Update, J. Appl. Meteorol., 43, 170–181, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:Tkcpau>2.0.Co;2, 2004.
Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M.: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain–Fritsch scheme, in: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Springer, 165–170, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-13-3_16, 1993.
Kearns, R. D., Wigal, M. S., Fernandez, A., Tucker, M. A., Zuidgeest, G. R., Mills, M. R., Cairns, B. A., and Cairns, C. B.: The 2012 derecho: Emergency medical services and hospital response, Prehosp. Disast. Med., 29, 542–545, 2014.
Knippertz, P., Trentmann, J., and Seifert, A.: High-resolution simulations of convective cold pools over the northwestern Sahara, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D08110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011271, 2009.
Knist, S., Goergen, K., and Simmer, C.: Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe, Clim. Dynam., 55, 325–341, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x, 2020.
Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Fischer, E., Lüthi, D., Zubler, E., and Schär, C.: Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European summer climate, Clim. Dynam., 48, 3425–3440, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3276-3, 2017.
Kuchera, E. L. and Parker, M. D.: Severe Convective Wind Environments, Weather Forecast., 21, 595–612, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF931.1, 2006.
Kumar, M., Kosoviæ, B., Nayak, H. P., Porter, W. C., Randerson, J. T., and Banerjee, T.: Evaluating the performance of WRF in simulating winds and surface meteorology during a Southern California wildfire event, Front. Earth Sci., 11, 1305124, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1305124, 2024.
Kunz, M.: The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 327–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-327-2007, 2007.
Labriola, J., Snook, N., Jung, Y., and Xue, M.: Explicit ensemble prediction of hail in 19 May 2013 Oklahoma City thunderstorms and analysis of hail growth processes with several multimoment microphysics schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1193–1213, 2019a.
Labriola, J., Snook, N., Xue, M., and Thomas, K. W.: Forecasting the 8 May 2017 Severe Hail Storm in Denver, Colorado, at a Convection-Allowing Resolution: Understanding Rimed Ice Treatments in Multimoment Microphysics Schemes and Their Effects on Hail Size Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 3045–3068, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-18-0319.1, 2019b.
Ladwig, W.: Visualization & Analysis Systems Technologies. Geoscience Community Analysis Toolkit: WRF-Python (Version v1.3.4.1), UCAR/NCAR [software], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6W094P1, 2017.
Langkamp, T. and Böhner, J.: Influence of the compiler on multi-CPU performance of WRFv3, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 611–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-611-2011, 2011.
Li, R., Liu, L., Yang, G., Zhang, C., and Wang, B.: Bitwise identical compiling setup: prospective for reproducibility and reliability of Earth system modeling, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 731–748, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-731-2016, 2016.
Li, Y., Li, Z., Zhang, Z., Chen, L., Kurkute, S., Scaff, L., and Pan, X.: High-resolution regional climate modeling and projection over western Canada using a weather research forecasting model with a pseudo-global warming approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4635–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4635-2019, 2019.
Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Rasmussen, R., Barlage, M., Newman, A. J., Prein, A. F., Chen, F., Chen, L., Clark, M., Dai, A., Dudhia, J., Eidhammer, T., Gochis, D., Gutmann, E., Kurkute, S., Li, Y., Thompson, G., and Yates, D.: Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America, Clim. Dynam., 49, 71–95, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3327-9, 2017.
Liu, W., Ullrich, P. A., Li, J., Zarzycki, C., Caldwell, P. M., Leung, L. R., and Qian, Y.: The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud-Resolving Scales, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 15, e2022MS003358, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003358, 2023.
Lucas-Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., and Caillaud, C.: Convection-permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Clim. Change, 12, e731, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.731, 2021.
Mahoney, K. M., Grell, G. A., Freitas, S. R., Wagner, A., Heinzeller, D., Wagner, S., Rummler, T., and Kunstmann, H.: The representation of cumulus convection in high-resolution simulations of the 2013 Colorado Front Range flood A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling Explicit convection and scale-aware cumulus parameterizations:High-resolution simulations over areas of different topography in Germany, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 4265–4278, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-16-0211.1, 2016.
Majewski, D.: Operational regional prediction, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 63, 89–104, 1997.
Mansell, E. R., Ziegler, C. L., and Bruning, E. C.: Simulated Electrification of a Small Thunderstorm with Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 171–194, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jas2965.1, 2010a.
Mansell, E. R., Ziegler, C. L., and Bruning, E. C.: Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 171–194, 2010b.
Mathias, L., Ludwig, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-resolving hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in western Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019.
McCumber, M., Tao, W. K., Simpson, J., Penc, R., and Soong, S. T.: Comparison of ice-phase microphysical parameterization schemes using numerical simulations of tropical convection, J. Appl. Meteorol., 30, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450-30.7.985, 1991.
Metz, N. D. and Bosart, L. F.: Derecho and MCS development, evolution, and multiscale interactions during 3–5 July 2003, Mon/ Weather Rev/, 138, 3048–3070, 2010.
Milbrandt, J. and Yau, M.: A multimoment bulk microphysics parameterization. Part I: Analysis of the role of the spectral shape parameter, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3051–3064, 2005a.
Milbrandt, J. A. and Yau, M. K.: A Multimoment Bulk Microphysics Parameterization. Part I: Analysis of the Role of the Spectral Shape Parameter, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3051–3064, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3534.1, 2005b.
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 16663–16682, 1997.
Moreno, R., Arias, E., Cazorla, D., Pardo, J. J., Navarro, A., Rojo, T., and Tapiador, F. J.: Analysis of a New MPI Process Distribution for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, Scient. Program., 2020, 8148373, https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8148373, 2020.
Morrison, H., Thompson, G., and Tatarskii, V.: Impact of Cloud Microphysics on the Development of Trailing Stratiform Precipitation in a Simulated Squall Line: Comparison of One- and Two-Moment Schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2556.1, 2009.
Morrison, H., Tessendorf, S. A., Ikeda, K., and Thompson, G.: Sensitivity of a simulated midlatitude squall line to parameterization of raindrop breakup, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 2437–2460, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-11-00283.1, 2012.
Morrison, H., Milbrandt, J. A., Bryan, G. H., Ikeda, K., Tessendorf, S. A., and Thompson, G.: Parameterization of Cloud Microphysics Based on the Prediction of Bulk Ice Particle Properties. Part II: Case Study Comparisons with Observations and Other Schemes, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 312–339, https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-14-0066.1, 2015.
Morrison, H., van Lier-Walqui, M., Fridlind, A. M., Grabowski, W. W., Harrington, J. Y., Hoose, C., Korolev, A., Kumjian, M. R., Milbrandt, J. A., Pawlowska, H., Posselt, D. J., Prat, O. P., Reimel, K. J., Shima, S.-I., van Diedenhoven, B., and Xue, L.: Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001689, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001689, 2020.
Nadolski, V.: Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) user's guide, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Defense, Federal Aviation Administration, United States Navy, https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/aum-toc.pdf (last access: 1 November 2021), 1998.
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: An improved Mellor–Yamada level-3 model: Its numerical stability and application to a regional prediction of advection fog, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 119, 397–407, 2006.
National Centers for Environmental Information: Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/radar/next-generation-weather-radar (last access: 1 November 2021), 2021a.
National Centers for Environmental Information: ASOS five minute (temporal resolution) data, National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/asos-fivemin/Inventory/ (last access: 1 November 2021), 2021b.
National Centers for Environmental Information: Storm Events Database, National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/ (last access: 1 November 2021), 2021c.
Niu, G.-Y., Yang, Z.-L., Mitchell, K. E., Chen, F., Ek, M. B., Barlage, M., Kumar, A., Manning, K., Niyogi, D., Rosero, E., Tewari, M., and Xia, Y.: The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, D12109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015139, 2011.
NOAA: Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) Release Note, Software Version 2.79, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Defense, Federal Aviation Administration, United States Navy, https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/ASOS Implementation/release_notes.279_final.pdf (last access: 1 November 2021), 2004.
NOAA: The Historic Derecho of 29 June 2012; Service Assessment, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce, https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/derecho12.pdf (last access: 1 November 2021), 2013.
NOAA: Federal Meteorological Handbook, No. 11 WSR-88D Meteorologic Observations Part A, System concepts, responsibilities, and procedures, FCM-H11A-2016, https://www.icams-portal.gov/resources/ofcm/fmh/FMH11/2016FMH11PTA.pdf (last access: 1 November 2021, 2016.
NOAA: WSR-88D Meteorological Observations: Part C WSR-88D products and algorithms, FCM-H11C-2017, Silver Spring, MD, https://www.icams-portal.gov/resources/ofcm/fmh/FMH11/fmh11partC.pdf (last access: 1 November 2021), 2017.
NOAA: NCEP Products Inventory, http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/sst/ (last access: 2 December 2024), 2024.
Panosetti, D., Schlemmer, L., and Schär, C.: Bulk and structural convergence at convection-resolving scales in real-case simulations of summertime moist convection over land, Q. J. Roy.Meteorol. Soc., 145, 1427–1443, 2019.
Parker, M. D. and Knievel, J. C.: Do meteorologists suppress thunderstorms: Radar-derived statistics and the behavior of moist convection, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 341–358, 2005.
Powers, J. G., Werner, K. K., Gill, D. O., Lin, Y.-L., and Schumacher, R. S.: Cloud Computing Efforts for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E1261–E1274, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0219.1, 2021.
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., and Feser, F.: A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, 2015.
Pryor, S. C., Nikulin, G., and Jones, C.: Influence of spatial resolution on Regional Climate Model derived wind climates, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016822, 2012.
Rasmussen, K. L., Prein, A. F., Rasmussen, R. M., Ikeda, K., and Liu, C.: Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States, Clim. Dynam., 55, 383–408, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4000-7, 2020.
Roh, W. and Satoh, M.: Evaluation of precipitating hydrometeor parameterizations in a single-moment bulk microphysics scheme for deep convective systems over the tropical central Pacific, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2654–2673, 2014.
Schmitt, I. V. and Chester, V.: A quality control algorithm for the ASOS ice free wind sensor, in: 13th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, 11–15 January 2009, Phoenix, AZ, USA, https://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_145755.htm (last access: 3 December 2024), 2009.
Schoen, J. M. and Ashley, W. S.: A climatology of fatal convective wind events by storm type, Weather Forecast., 26, 109–121, 2011.
Schumacher, R. S.: Resolution dependence of initiation and upscale growth of deep convection in convection-allowing forecasts of the 31 May–1 June 2013 supercell and MCS, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 4331–4354, 2015.
Schumacher, R. S. and Johnson, R. H.: Organization and environmental properties of extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 961–976, 2005.
Schumacher, R. S. and Rasmussen, K. L.: The formation, character and changing nature of mesoscale convective systems, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 300–314, 2020.
Seo, B.-C., Dolan, B., Krajewski, W. F., Rutledge, S. A., and Petersen, W.: Comparison of single-and dual-polarization-based rainfall estimates using NEXRAD data for the NASA Iowa Flood Studies project, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 1658–1675, 2015.
Shield, S. A., Quiring, S. M., Pino, J. V., and Buckstaff, K.: Major impacts of weather events on the electrical power delivery system in the United States, Energy, 218, 119434, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119434, 2021.
Short, J. R.: A perfect storm: climate change, the power grid, and regulatory regime change after network failure, Environ. Plan. C, 34, 244–261, 2016.
Shourd, K. N. and Kaplan, M. L.: The Multiscale Dynamics of the 29 June 2012 Super Derecho, Climate, 9, 155, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9110155, 2021.
Shpund, J., Khain, A., Lynn, B., Fan, J., Han, B., Ryzhkov, A., Snyder, J., Dudhia, J., and Gill, D.: Simulating a Mesoscale Convective System Using WRF With a New Spectral Bin Microphysics: 1: Hail vs Graupel, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 14072–14101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030576, 2019.
Siuta, D., West, G., Modzelewski, H., Schigas, R., and Stull, A. R.: Viability of Cloud Computing for Real-Time Numerical Weather Prediction, Weather Forecast., 31, 1985–1996, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0075.1, 2016.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, NCAR [code], https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH (code available at: https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources.html, last access: 8 December 2024), 2008.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, J. G., Duda, M. G., Barker, D. M., and Huang, X.-Y.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 4, NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-556+STR, NCAR [code], https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97 (code available at: https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_sources_new.php, last access: 8 December 2024), 2019.
Squitieri, B. J. and Gallus Jr., W. A.: On the forecast sensitivity of MCS cold pools and related features to horizontal grid spacing in convection-allowing WRF simulations, Weather Forecast., 35, 325–346, 2020.
Tao, W.-K., Simpson, J., and McCumber, M.: An ice-water saturation adjustment, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 231–235, 1989.
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Groenemeijer, P., Edwards, R., Brooks, H. E., Chmielewski, V., and Enno, S.-E.: Severe convective storms across Europe and the United States. Part I: Climatology of lightning, large hail, severe wind, and tornadoes, J. Climate, 33, 10239–10261, 2020.
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 5095–5115, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008mwr2387.1, 2008.
Tian, J., Liu, J., Yan, D., Li, C., and Yu, F.: Numerical rainfall simulation with different spatial and temporal evenness by using a WRF multiphysics ensemble, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 563–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-563-2017, 2017.
Toll, V., Männik, A., Luhamaa, A., and Rõõm, R.: Hindcast experiments of the derecho in Estonia on 08 August, 2010: Modelling derecho with NWP model HARMONIE, Atmos. Res., 158, 179–191, 2015.
Trapp, R. J.: Potential Effects of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Non-Synoptic Wind Storm Hazards, in: The Oxford Handbook of Non-Synoptic Wind Storms, Oxford University Press, 145–167, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190670252.013.4, 2021.
Wade, C. G.: A Multisensor Approach to Detecting Drizzle on ASOS, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 20, 820–832, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2003)020<0820:AMATDD>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Wagner, A., Heinzeller, D., Wagner, S., Rummler, T., and Kunstmann, H.: Explicit convection and scale-aware cumulus parameterizations: High-resolution simulations over areas of different topography in Germany, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 1925–1944, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-17-0238.1, 2018.
Wallace, R., Friedrich, K., Kalina, E. A., and Schlatter, P.: Using operational radar to identify deep hail accumulations from thunderstorms, Weather Forecast., 34, 133–150, 2019.
Wang, W. and Seaman, N. L.: A Comparison Study of Convective Parameterization Schemes in a Mesoscale Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 252–278, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0252:ACSOCP>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Warner, T.: Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511763243, 2010.
Weisman, M. L. and Rotunno, R.: “A theory for strong long-lived squall lines” revisited, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 361–382, 2004.
Weisman, M. L., Evans, C., and Bosart, L.: The 8 May 2009 superderecho: Analysis of a real-time explicit convective forecast, Weather Forecast., 28, 863–892, 2013.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, International geophysics series, Academic Press, Oxford, UK, ISBN 9780123850225,2011.
Witt, A., Eilts, M. D., Stumpf, G. J., Johnson, J., Mitchell, E. D. W., and Thomas, K. W.: An enhanced hail detection algorithm for the WSR-88D, Weather Forecast., 13, 286–303, 1998.
Xue, L., Fan, J., Lebo, Z. J., Wu, W., Morrison, H., Grabowski, W. W., , and Rasmussen, R. M.: Idealized simulations of a squall line from the MC3E field campaign applying three bin microphysics schemes: Dynamic and thermodynamic structure, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 4789–4812, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0385.1, 2017.
Yair, Y.: Lightning hazards to human societies in a changing climate, Environ. Rese. Lett., 13, 123002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaea86, 2018.
Zhang, F., Bei, N., Rotunno, R., Snyder, C., and Epifanio, C. C.: Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Convection-permitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3579–3594, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS4028.1, 2007.
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint
Similar articles
Compound winter low-wind and cold events...
Collet et al.
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme...
Kingston et al.
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger...
Szymczak et al.