Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 06 Dec 2024
| 06 Dec 2024
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jens A. de Bruijn
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Water Security (WAT) Research Group, Laxenburg, Austria
Hans de Moel
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
W. J. Wouter Botzen
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
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Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kees Boersma, Tomris Cesuroglu, Nathan Clark, Tina Comes, Ashok Dahal, Sonja Fransen, Jasper Verschuur, Carmen Anthonj, Srijith Balakrishnan, Jens de Bruijn, Eefje Hendriks, Rodrigo Mena Fluhmann, Goda Perlaviciute, Linda Steg, Marc van den Homberg, Cees van Westen, Funda Atun, Anja Schreijer, and Nicole van Maanen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1331, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We explore five core challenges that need to be addressed in order to move towards the Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management approach. This approach has been proposed within the newly emerging paradigm of a more holistic approach to managing the risks associated with climatic and/or non-climatic hazards and non-climatic risk drivers. We elaborate on each challenge, discuss why they matter for comprehensive disaster risk management, and provide ideas of how to overcome them.
Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jaap Kwadijk, Davide Zoccatelli, Rafaella G. L. Oliveira, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret H. Thieken, Jan Verkade, Patrick Willems, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1457–1478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026, 2026
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In July 2021, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and Belgium were hit by an extreme flood event with over 200 fatalities. Our study provides, for the first time, critical insights into the operational flood early-warning systems in this entire region. Based on 14 expert interviews, we conclude that the systems strongly improved in all countries. Interviewees stressed the need for operational impact-based forecasts, but emphasized that its operational implementation is challenging.
Tarun Sadana, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Dirk Eilander, Bruno Merz, Hans de Moel, Tim Busker, Veerle Bril, and Jens de Bruijn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4387, 2025
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We evaluated a global flood model using satellite data from 499 historical flood events across 96 countries. Our study shows that larger upstream river basins are modelled more accurately, while using observed river gauges and high-resolution elevation data can improve results. Our findings highlight the importance of large-scale validation and sensitivity analyses to enhance future global flood hazard assessments and prediction accuracy.
Vylon Ooms, Thijs Endendijk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Peter J. Robinson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4283–4298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4283-2025, 2025
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Intense rainfall events cause increasingly severe damages to urban areas globally. We use unique insurance claims data to study the effect of nature-based and other adaptation measures on damage. We compare an area in Amsterdam where measures have been implemented to a similar, adjacent area without measures using an innovative method. We find a significant reduction of damage where the adaptation measures were implemented. Urban areas can reduce rain damage by implementing adaptation measures.
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4089–4113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025, 2025
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This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
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Global flood models are key to the mitigation of coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations when providing actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models and bridges the fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three historical storms. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
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Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
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This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. Van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4341–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, 2024
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Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. Vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in the literature. Our study reviews over 1510 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can be directly used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and landslides.
Ileen N. Streefkerk, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jens de Bruijn, Khalid Hassaballah, Rhoda Odongo, Teun Schrieks, Oliver Wasonga, and Anne F. Van Loon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2382, 2024
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In East Africa are conflict over water and vegetation prominent. On top of that, water abstraction of commercial farms are increasing the competition of water. Therefore, this study has developed a model which can investigate what the influence is of these farming activities on the water balance of the region and people's livelihood activities in times of dry periods. We do that by ‘replacing’ the farms in the model, and see what the effect would be if there were communities or forests instead.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
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An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
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We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
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Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Jens A. de Bruijn, Mikhail Smilovic, Peter Burek, Luca Guillaumot, Yoshihide Wada, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2437–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2437-2023, 2023
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We present a computer simulation model of the hydrological system and human system, which can simulate the behaviour of individual farmers and their interactions with the water system at basin scale to assess how the systems have evolved and are projected to evolve in the future. For example, we can simulate the effect of subsidies provided on investment in adaptation measures and subsequent effects in the hydrological system, such as a lowering of the groundwater table or reservoir level.
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
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Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
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Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
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We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
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It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Raed Hamed, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1371–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, 2021
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Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, 2021
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This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
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Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will...
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