Articles | Volume 24, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Joy Ommer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, United Kingdom
KAJO s.r.o., Bytca, 01401, Slovakia
Jessica Neumann
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, United Kingdom
Milan Kalas
KAJO s.r.o., Bytca, 01401, Slovakia
Sophie Blackburn
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, United Kingdom
Hannah L. Cloke
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, United Kingdom
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, United Kingdom
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Troubled water: Enhancing flood preparedness with eXtended reality L. Terfurth et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chbr.2026.101004
- From flood hazard to governable climate risk: An integrated framework for adaptive flood governance and the Flood Resilience and Sustainability Index (FRSI) R. Kemarau et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131102
- Mechanisms and scenarios of the unprecedent flooding event in South Brazil 2024 L. Laipelt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-573-2026
- Towards a Deliberative Framework for Systemic Risk Communication B. Hofbauer et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1668/1/012007
- Moving Towards Transilience: Rethinking the Role of Flood Early Warning Systems in a Changing World P. Painter et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-026-00751-9
- Assessing the value of impact-based forecasting and early action for floods R. Pontman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106497
- The Deliberative Imagination J. Richardson https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-026-01129-5
- Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication, and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production K. Schröter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025
- Alternative rainfall storylines for the Western European July 2021 floods from ensemble boosting V. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02386-y
- Reassessing the Roles of Confidence in Government, Risk Perception and Responsibility Attribution on Flood Preparedness L. Agyepong et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70087
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0293
- Certainly uncertain: the role of uncertainty perception for flood risk preparedness and response B. Höllermann & A. Heidenreich https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07675-5
- ‘That still haunts me a little bit’: Decision-makers and information providers' experiences of recurring flood events D. Johnson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105216
- River flow amplification under climate change: attribution and climate-driven storylines of the winter 2023/24 UK floods W. Chan et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adfdfe
- Turning regret into future disaster preparedness with no regrets J. Ommer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2929-2025
- Comparing flood forecasting and early warning systems in northwestern Europe T. Busker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Troubled water: Enhancing flood preparedness with eXtended reality L. Terfurth et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chbr.2026.101004
- From flood hazard to governable climate risk: An integrated framework for adaptive flood governance and the Flood Resilience and Sustainability Index (FRSI) R. Kemarau et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.131102
- Mechanisms and scenarios of the unprecedent flooding event in South Brazil 2024 L. Laipelt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-573-2026
- Towards a Deliberative Framework for Systemic Risk Communication B. Hofbauer et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1668/1/012007
- Moving Towards Transilience: Rethinking the Role of Flood Early Warning Systems in a Changing World P. Painter et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-026-00751-9
- Assessing the value of impact-based forecasting and early action for floods R. Pontman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106497
- The Deliberative Imagination J. Richardson https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-026-01129-5
- Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication, and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production K. Schröter et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3055-2025
- Alternative rainfall storylines for the Western European July 2021 floods from ensemble boosting V. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02386-y
- Reassessing the Roles of Confidence in Government, Risk Perception and Responsibility Attribution on Flood Preparedness L. Agyepong et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70087
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0293
- Certainly uncertain: the role of uncertainty perception for flood risk preparedness and response B. Höllermann & A. Heidenreich https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07675-5
- ‘That still haunts me a little bit’: Decision-makers and information providers' experiences of recurring flood events D. Johnson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105216
- River flow amplification under climate change: attribution and climate-driven storylines of the winter 2023/24 UK floods W. Chan et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adfdfe
- Turning regret into future disaster preparedness with no regrets J. Ommer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2929-2025
- Comparing flood forecasting and early warning systems in northwestern Europe T. Busker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 04 Nov 2026
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our...
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