Articles | Volume 24, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 12 Jul 2024
| 12 Jul 2024
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Antonio Giordani
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics and Astronomy (DIFA) “Augusto Righi”, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
ARPAE-SIMC Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Michael Kunz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Kristopher M. Bedka
NASA Langley Research Center, Science Directorate, Climate Science Branch, Hampton, VA, USA
Heinz Jürgen Punge
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Tiziana Paccagnella
ARPAE-SIMC Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Valentina Pavan
ARPAE-SIMC Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Ines M. L. Cerenzia
ARPAE-SIMC Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Silvana Di Sabatino
Department of Physics and Astronomy (DIFA) “Augusto Righi”, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Amit Kumar Pandit, Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas Duncan Fairlie, Kristopher M. Bedka, Melody A. Avery, Harish Gadhavi, Madineni Venkat Ratnam, Sanjeev Dwivedi, Kasimahanthi Amar Jyothi, Frank G. Wienhold, Holger Vömel, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Buduru Suneel Kumar, Tra Dinh, and Achuthan Jayaraman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14209–14238, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the formation mechanism of a tropopause cirrus cloud layer observed at extremely cold temperatures over Hyderabad in India during the 2017 Asian summer monsoon using balloon-borne sensors. Ice crystals smaller than 50 µm were found in this optically thin cirrus cloud layer. Combined analysis of back trajectories, satellite, and model data revealed that the formation of this layer was influenced by waves and stratospheric hydration induced by typhoon Hato.
Markus Augenstein, Susanna Mohr, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
A grid-based analysis of lightning in Europe shows a reduction in thunderstorm activity in many regions. Moving away from a grid-based analysis, a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm was used. The results show a slight trend towards the occurrence of smaller, more separated convective clustered events, suggesting changes in the organization of convective systems. One reason for this could be the increased occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the last decade.
Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes a new methodology to identify regional structures in the dependence of extreme rainfall on global climate indexes. The study area is north-central Italy, but the methods are highly adaptable to other regions. We observe that the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index has a strong influence, whose geographical pattern is in line with other studies. We show also that the use of the Index may improve the estimation of the extreme rainfall depth with a given probability.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Francesco Barbano, Erika Brattich, Carlo Cintolesi, Abdul Ghafoor Nizamani, Silvana Di Sabatino, Massimo Milelli, Esther E. M. Peerlings, Sjoerd Polder, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, and Antonio Parodi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3255–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3255-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3255-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The characterization of the urban microclimate starts with atmospheric monitoring using a dense array of sensors to capture the spatial variations induced by the different morphology, land cover, and presence of vegetation. To provide a new sensor for this scope, this paper evaluates the outdoor performance of a commercial mobile sensor. The results mark the sensor's ability to capture the same atmospheric variability as the reference, making it a valid solution for atmospheric monitoring.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Corey E. Clapp, Jessica B. Smith, Kristopher M. Bedka, and James G. Anderson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3279–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection in the Asian monsoon provides an important pathway for the transport of boundary layer and tropospheric air, and potentially pollution and chemically active species, into the stratosphere. We analyzed the distribution of the fastest and deepest convection with geostationary satellite detections for the months of May through October of 2017. We find significant differences in the geographic and monthly distributions of cross-tropopause convection across the Asian monsoon region.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Hazel Vernier, Neeraj Rastogi, Hongyu Liu, Amit Kumar Pandit, Kris Bedka, Anil Patel, Madineni Venkat Ratnam, Buduru Suneel Kumar, Bo Zhang, Harish Gadhavi, Frank Wienhold, Gwenael Berthet, and Jean-Paul Vernier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12675–12694, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12675-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical composition of the stratospheric aerosols collected aboard high-altitude balloons above the summer Asian monsoon reveals the presence of nitrate/nitrite. Using numerical simulations and satellite observations, we found that pollution as well as lightning could explain some of our observations.
Ditsuhi Iskandaryan, Silvana Di Sabatino, Francisco Ramos, and Sergio Trilles
AGILE GIScience Ser., 3, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-3-6-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/agile-giss-3-6-2022, 2022
Laura Tositti, Erika Brattich, Claudio Cassardo, Pietro Morozzi, Alessandro Bracci, Angela Marinoni, Silvana Di Sabatino, Federico Porcù, and Alessandro Zappi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4047–4073, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4047-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a thorough investigation of an anomalous transport of mineral dust over a region renowned for excess airborne particulate matter, the Italian Po Valley, which occurred in late March 2021. Both the origin of this dust outbreak, which was localized in central Asia (i.e., the so-called Aralkum Desert), and the upstream synoptic conditions, investigated here in extreme detail using multiple integrated observations including in situ measurements and remote sensing, were atypical.
Kristopher M. Bedka, Amin R. Nehrir, Michael Kavaya, Rory Barton-Grimley, Mark Beaubien, Brian Carroll, James Collins, John Cooney, G. David Emmitt, Steven Greco, Susan Kooi, Tsengdar Lee, Zhaoyan Liu, Sharon Rodier, and Gail Skofronick-Jackson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4305–4334, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4305-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper demonstrates the Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) lidar and High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) measurement capabilities across a range of atmospheric conditions, compares DAWN and HALO measurements with Aeolus satellite Doppler wind lidar to gain an initial perspective of Aeolus performance, and discusses how atmospheric dynamic processes can be resolved and better understood through simultaneous observations of wind, water vapour, and aerosol profile observations.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms (SCSs) and the related hail events constitute major atmospheric hazards in parts of Europe. In our study, we identified the regions of France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg that were most affected by hail over a 10 year period (2005 to 2014). A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousand SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help us understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Benjamin R. Scarino, Kristopher Bedka, Rajendra Bhatt, Konstantin Khlopenkov, David R. Doelling, and William L. Smith Jr.
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 5491–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlights a technique for facilitating anvil cloud detection based on visible observations that relies on comparative analysis with expected cloud reflectance for a given set of angles. A 1-year database of anvil-identified pixels, as determined from IR observations, from several geostationary satellites was used to construct a bidirectional reflectance distribution function model to quantify typical anvil reflectance across almost all expected viewing, solar, and azimuth angles.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
Arianna Valmassoi, Jimy Dudhia, Silvana Di Sabatino, and Francesco Pilla
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3179–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3179-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation affects the atmosphere and models are required to understand its full impact. However, there is no agreed procedure to describe irrigation within regional models. The present study introduces three new methods to integrate this process into the models and validates it for the Po Valley in northern Italy. All the tests done show that the results are improved with the new irrigation techniques when compared against some measures (e.g., temperature, potential evapotranspiration).
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Constanze Wellmann, Andrew I. Barrett, Jill S. Johnson, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Vogel, Ken S. Carslaw, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe hailstorms may cause damage to buildings and crops. Thus, the forecast of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models should be as reliable as possible.
Using statistical emulation, we identify those model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convection. We find that the impact of the input parameters on the uncertainty depends on the considered output variable.
Laddaporn Ruangpan, Zoran Vojinovic, Silvana Di Sabatino, Laura Sandra Leo, Vittoria Capobianco, Amy M. P. Oen, Michael E. McClain, and Elena Lopez-Gunn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 243–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-243-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-243-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article aims to provide a critical review of the literature and indicate some directions for future research based on the current knowledge gaps in the area of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for hydro-meteorological risk reduction. The final full analysis was performed on 146 closely related articles. A review showed that many advancements related to NBSs have been made to date, but there are still many challenges that will play an important role in extending knowledge in the coming years.
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1083–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited timescale with meteorological observations and an inhomogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrains. In this study a spatially high resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but is transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations is found.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Christopher R. Yost, Kristopher M. Bedka, Patrick Minnis, Louis Nguyen, J. Walter Strapp, Rabindra Palikonda, Konstantin Khlopenkov, Douglas Spangenberg, William L. Smith Jr., Alain Protat, and Julien Delanoe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accretion of cloud ice particles upon engine or instrument probe surfaces can cause engine malfunction or even power loss, and therefore it is important for aircraft to avoid flight through clouds that may have produced large quantities of ice particles. This study introduces a method by which potentially hazardous conditions can be detected using satellite imagery. It was found that potentially hazardous conditions were often located near or beneath very cold clouds and thunderstorm updrafts.
David Piper and Michael Kunz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1319–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, 2017
Robert L. Herman, Eric A. Ray, Karen H. Rosenlof, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael J. Schwartz, William G. Read, Robert F. Troy, Keith Chin, Lance E. Christensen, Dejian Fu, Robert A. Stachnik, T. Paul Bui, and Jonathan M. Dean-Day
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6113–6124, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6113-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study reports new aircraft field observations of elevated water vapor greater than 10 ppmv in the overworld stratosphere over the summertime continental US. Back trajectories from the flight track intersect overshooting convective tops within the previous 1 to 7 days, suggesting that ice is convectively and irreversibly transported to the stratosphere in the most energetic overshooting convective events. Satellite measurements (Aura MLS) indicate that such events are uncommon (< 1 %).
Benjamin R. Scarino, Patrick Minnis, Thad Chee, Kristopher M. Bedka, Christopher R. Yost, and Rabindra Palikonda
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-351-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-351-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global coverage of remotely sensed skin temperature, along with cloud/surface radiation parameters, produced in near-real time and from historical satellite data, is beneficial for weather and climate purposes. One key drawback is the dependence on view angle. Therefore, this article serves to validate a global, satellite-based skin temperature product, while highlighting an empirically adjusted theoretical model of satellite LST angular anisotropy, and the benefits gained from its application.
David Piper, Michael Kunz, Florian Ehmele, Susanna Mohr, Bernhard Mühr, Andreas Kron, and James Daniell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2835–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, 2016
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
T. D. Fairlie, J.-P. Vernier, M. Natarajan, and K. M. Bedka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7045–7057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7045-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7045-2014, 2014
M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
The Record-Breaking Precipitation Event of December 2022 in Portugal
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact-drivers in the context of food security
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored the possibility of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Adding mixtures of 3 to 5 amendment types substantially increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion and increased microorganism abundance, while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river leading to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on day 12.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographic setting.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Cited articles
Adams-Selin, R. D. and Ziegler, C. L.: Forecasting hail using a one-dimensional hail growth model within WRF, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 4919–4939, 2016. a
Adler, R. F., Markus, M. J., and Fenn, D. D.: Detection of severe Midwest thunderstorms using geosynchronous satellite data, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 769–781, 1985. a
Allen, J. T. and Allen, E. R.: A review of severe thunderstorms in Australia, Atmos. Res., 178, 347–366, 2016. a
Baldi, M., Ciardini, V., Dalu, J. D., De Filippis, T., Maracchi, G., and Dalu, G.: Hail occurrence in Italy: Towards a national database and climatology, Atmos. Res., 138, 268–277, 2014. a
Bang, S. D. and Cecil, D. J.: Constructing a multifrequency passive microwave hail retrieval and climatology in the GPM domain, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 1889–1904, 2019. a
Battaglioli, F., Groenemeijer, P., Tsonevsky, I., and Púčik, T.: Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023. a, b
Bica, B., Knabl, T., Steinacker, R., Ratheiser, M., Dorninger, M., Lotteraner, C., Schneider, S., Chimani, B., Gepp, W., and Tschannett, S.: Thermally and dynamically induced pressure features over complex terrain from high-resolution analyses, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 46, 50–65, 2007. a
Brimelow, J. C., Burrows, W. R., and Hanesiak, J. M.: The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 516–522, 2017. a
Brooks, H. E.: Proximity soundings for severe convection for Europe and the United States from reanalysis data, Atmos. Res., 93, 546–553, 2009. a
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., and Craven, J. P.: The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data, Atmos. Res., 67, 73–94, 2003. a
Bryan, G. H., Wyngaard, J. C., and Fritsch, J. M.: Resolution requirements for the simulation of deep moist convection, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 2394–2416, 2003. a
Cecil, D. J.: Passive microwave brightness temperatures as proxies for hailstorms, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 1281–1286, 2009. a
Cecil, D. J. and Blankenship, C. B.: Toward a global climatology of severe hailstorms as estimated by satellite passive microwave imagers, J. Climate, 25, 687–703, 2012. a
Cerenzia, I. M. L., Giordani, A., Paccagnella, T., and Montani, A.: Towards a convection-permitting regional reanalysis over the Italian domain, Meteorol. Appl., 29, e2092, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2092, 2022. a, b
Changnon, S. A. and Burroughs, J.: The tristate hailstorm: The most costly on record, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 1734–1739, 2003. a
Changnon Jr, S. A.: Hailstreaks, J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 109–125, 1970. a
Chen, J., Dai, A., Zhang, Y., and Rasmussen, K. L.: Changes in convective available potential energy and convective inhibition under global warming, J. Climate, 33, 2025–2050, 2020. a
Chen, Y., Paschalis, A., Kendon, E., Kim, D., and Onof, C.: Changing spatial structure of summer heavy rainfall, using convection-permitting ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090903, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090903, 2021. a
Clark, A. J., Gao, J., Marsh, P. T., Smith, T., Kain, J. S., Correia Jr., J., Xue, M., and Kong, F.: Tornado pathlength forecasts from 2010 to 2011 using ensemble updraft helicity, Weather Forecast., 28, 387–407, 2013. a
Clark, P., Roberts, N., Lean, H., Ballard, S. P., and Charlton-Perez, C.: Convection-permitting models: a step-change in rainfall forecasting, Meteorol. Appl., 23, 165–181, 2016. a
Cooney, J. W., Bedka, K. M., Bowman, K. P., Khlopenkov, K. V., and Itterly, K.: Comparing Tropopause-Penetrating Convection Identifications Derived From NEXRAD and GOES Over the Contiguous United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034319, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034319, 2021. a, b, c
Davini, P., Bechini, R., Cremonini, R., and Cassardo, C.: Radar-based analysis of convective storms over northwestern Italy, Atmosphere, 3, 33–58, 2012. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, 2011. a
De Martin, F., Carlon, N., Pavan, F., Carpentari, S., Giazzi, M., Peressutti, G., Miglietta, M. M., and Davolio, S.: Toward a dedicated warning system of severe storms in Italy: the PRETEMP project, Poster presented at the 11th European Conference on Severe Storms, Bucharest, Romania, 8–12 May 2023, ECSS2023-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/ecss2023-18, 2023. a
Ebert, E. E.: Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 51–64, 2008. a
Elliott, M. S., MacGorman, D. R., Schuur, T. J., and Heinselman, P. L.: An analysis of overshooting top lightning mapping array signatures in supercell thunderstorms, in: Proc. 22nd Int. Lightning Detection Conf., 2–3 April 2012, Broomfield, Colorado, USA, https://www.vaisala.com/sites/default/files/documents/An Analysis of Overshooting Top Lightning Mapping Array (last access: 10 July 2024), 2012. a, b
Flaounas, E., Davolio, S., Raveh-Rubin, S., Pantillon, F., Miglietta, M. M., Gaertner, M. A., Hatzaki, M., Homar, V., Khodayar, S., Korres, G., Kotroni, V., Kushta, J., Reale, M., and Ricard, D.: Mediterranean cyclones: current knowledge and open questions on dynamics, prediction, climatology and impacts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022. a
Fluck, E., Kunz, M., Geissbuehler, P., and Ritz, S. P.: Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021. a, b
Fujita, T. T.: Memoirs of an Effort to Unlock the Mystery of Severe Storms: During the 50 Years, 1942–1992, University of Chicago, https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1130572417839208210 (last access: 10 July 2024), 1992. a
Gagne, D. J., McGovern, A., Haupt, S. E., Sobash, R. A., Williams, J. K., and Xue, M.: Storm-based probabilistic hail forecasting with machine learning applied to convection-allowing ensembles, Weather Forecast., 32, 1819–1840, 2017. a
Gascón, E., Merino, A., Sánchez, J., Fernández-González, S., García-Ortega, E., López, L., and Hermida, L.: Spatial distribution of thermodynamic conditions of severe storms in southwestern Europe, Atmos. Res., 164, 194–209, 2015. a
Gensini, V. A., Converse, C., Ashley, W. S., and Taszarek, M.: Machine learning classification of significant tornadoes and hail in the United States using ERA5 proximity soundings, Weather Forecast., 36, 2143–2160, 2021. a
Giordani, A.: hail-analysis, GitHub [code], https://github.com/agiord/hail-analysis (last access: 10 July 2024), 2024. a
Giordani, A., Cerenzia, I. M. L., Paccagnella, T., and Di Sabatino, S.: SPHERA, a new convection-permitting regional reanalysis over Italy: Improving the description of heavy rainfall, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 781–808, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4428, 2023. a, b
Giovannini, L., Davolio, S., Zaramella, M., Zardi, D., and Borga, M.: Multi-model convection-resolving simulations of the October 2018 Vaia storm over Northeastern Italy, Atmos. Res., 253, 105455, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105455, 2021. a
Gobbo, S., Ghiraldini, A., Dramis, A., Dal Ferro, N., and Morari, F.: Estimation of hail damage using crop models and remote sensing, Remote Sens., 13, 2655, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13142655, 2021. a
Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Holzer, A. M., Antonescu, B., Riemann-Campe, K., Schultz, D. M., Kühne, T., Feuerstein, B., Brooks, H. E., Doswell III, C. A., Koppert, H. J., and Sausen, R.: Severe convective storms in Europe: Ten years of research and education at the European Severe Storms Laboratory, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 2641–2651, 2017. a
Gunturi, P. and Tippett, M.: Managing severe thunderstorm risk: Impact of ENSO on US tornado and hail frequencies, Technical Rep., WillisRe, Minneapolis, https://www.columbia.edu/~mkt14/files/WillisRe_Impact_of_ENSO_on_US_Tornado_and_Hail_frequencies_Final.pdf (last access: 10 July 2024), 2017. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, 2020. a
Hitchens, N. M. and Brooks, H. E.: Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlooks from day 3 through day 1, Weather Forecast., 29, 1134–1142, 2014. a
Hohl, R., Schiesser, H.-H., and Knepper, I.: The use of weather radars to estimate hail damage to automobiles: an exploratory study in Switzerland, Atmos. Res., 61, 215–238, 2002. a
Hoogewind, K. A., Baldwin, M. E., and Trapp, R. J.: The impact of climate change on hazardous convective weather in the United States: Insight from high-resolution dynamical downscaling, J. Climate, 30, 10081–10100, 2017. a
Houze Jr., R. A.: Cloud dynamics, Academic Press, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-374266-7.09984-4, 2014. a
Jelić, D., Megyeri, O. A., Malečić, B., Belušić Vozila, A., Strelec Mahović, N., and Telišman Prtenjak, M.: Hail climatology along the northeastern Adriatic, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD032749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032749, 2020. a, b, c, d
Johns, R. H. and Doswell III, C. A.: Severe local storms forecasting, Weather Forecast., 7, 588–612, 1992. a
Johnson, A. W. and Sugden, K. E.: Evaluation of sounding-derived thermodynamic and wind-related parameters associated with large hail events, E-J. Sev. Storms Meteorol., 9, 1–42, https://doi.org/10.55599/ejssm.v9i5.57, 2014. a
Jurković, P. M., Mahović, N. S., and Počakal, D.: Lightning, overshooting top and hail characteristics for strong convective storms in Central Europe, Atmos. Res., 161, 153–168, 2015. a
Knight, C. A. and Knight, N. C.: Hailstorms, in: Severe convective storms, Springer, 223–254, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-06-5_6, 2001. a
Kopp, J., Schröer, K., Schwierz, C., Hering, A., Germann, U., and Martius, O.: The summer 2021 Switzerland hailstorms: weather situation, major impacts and unique observational data, Weather, 78, 184–191, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4306, 2022. a
Kumjian, M. R. and Lombardo, K.: A hail growth trajectory model for exploring the environmental controls on hail size: Model physics and idealized tests, J. Atmos. Sci., 77, 2765–2791, 2020. a
Kunz, M.: The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 327–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-327-2007, 2007. a, b
Kunz, M., Blahak, U., Handwerker, J., Schmidberger, M., Punge, H. J., Mohr, S., Fluck, E., and Bedka, K. M.: The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on 28 July 2013: Characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 231–250, 2018. a
Kunz, M., Wandel, J., Fluck, E., Baumstark, S., Mohr, S., and Schemm, S.: Ambient conditions prevailing during hail events in central Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Labriola, J., Snook, N., Jung, Y., and Xue, M.: Explicit ensemble prediction of hail in 19 May 2013 Oklahoma City thunderstorms and analysis of hail growth processes with several multimoment microphysics schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1193–1213, 2019. a
Laviola, S., Levizzani, V., Ferraro, R. R., and Beauchamp, J.: Hailstorm detection by satellite microwave radiometers, Remote Sens., 12, 621 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12040621, 2020. a
Li, M., Zhang, D.-L., Sun, J., and Zhang, Q.: A statistical analysis of hail events and their environmental conditions in China during 2008–15, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 2817–2833, 2018. a
Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Rasmussen, R., Barlage, M., Newman, A. J., Prein, A. F., Chen, F., Chen, L., Clark, M., Dai, A., Dudhia, J., Eidhammer, T., Gochis, D., Gutmann, E., Kurkute, S., Li, Y., Thompson G., and Yates, D.: Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America, Clim. Dynam., 49, 71–95, 2017. a
Löffler-Mang, M., Schön, D., and Landry, M.: Characteristics of a new automatic hail recorder, Atmos. Res., 100, 439–446, 2011. a
Lupo, K. M., Torn, R. D., and Yang, S.-C.: Evaluation of stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies on convective-permitting ensemble forecasts of heavy rainfall events in New York and Taiwan, Weather Forecast., 35, 5–24, 2020. a
Malečić, B., Cui, R., Demory, M.-E., Horvath, K., Jelic, D., Schär, C., Prtenjak, M. T., Velasquez, P., and Ban, N.: Simulating Hail and Lightning over the Alpine Adriatic Region – A model Intercomparison Study, Authorea Preprints, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037989, 2022. a
Manzato, A.: Hail in northeast Italy: Climatology and bivariate analysis with the sounding-derived indices, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 51, 449–467, 2012. a
Manzato, A., Riva, V., Tiesi, A., and Marcello Miglietta, M.: Observational analysis and simulations of a severe hailstorm in northeastern Italy, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 3587–3611, 2020. a
Manzato, A., Cicogna, A., Centore, M., Battistutta, P., and Trevisan, M.: Hailstone Characteristics in Northeast Italy from 29 Years of Hailpad Data, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 61, 1779–1795, 2022a. a
Manzato, A., Serafin, S., Miglietta, M. M., Kirshbaum, D., and Schulz, W.: A pan-Alpine climatology of lightning and convective initiation, Mon. Weather Rev., 150, 2213–2230, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0149.1, 2022b. a, b
Marcos, J., Sánchez, J., Merino, A., Melcón, P., Mérida, G., and García-Ortega, E.: Spatial and temporal variability of hail falls and estimation of maximum diameter from meteorological variables, Atmos. Res., 247, 105142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105142, 2021. a
Marion, G., Trapp, R. J., and Nesbitt, S. W.: Using overshooting top area to discriminate potential for large, intense tornadoes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12520–12526, 2019. a
Markowski, P. and Richardson, Y.: Mesoscale meteorology in midlatitudes, in: Vol. 2, John Wiley & Sons, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470682104, 2011. a, b
Marsigli, C., Ebert, E., Ashrit, R., Casati, B., Chen, J., Coelho, C. A. S., Dorninger, M., Gilleland, E., Haiden, T., Landman, S., and Mittermaier, M.: Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1297–1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021, 2021. a
Mecikalski, J. R., Sandmæl, T. N., Murillo, E. M., Homeyer, C. R., Bedka, K. M., Apke, J. M., and Jewett, C. P.: A random-forest model to assess predictor importance and nowcast severe storms using high-resolution radar–GOES satellite-lightning observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 1725–1746, 2021. a, b
Melcón, P., Merino, A., Sánchez, J. L., López, L., and Hermida, L.: Satellite remote sensing of hailstorms in France, Atmos. Res., 182, 221–231, 2016. a
Mikuš, P., Prtenjak, M. T., and Mahović, N. S.: Analysis of the convective activity and its synoptic background over Croatia, Atmos. Res., 104, 139–153, 2012. a
Mohr, S., Kunz, M., and Keuler, K.: Development and application of a logistic model to estimate the past and future hail potential in Germany, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3939–3956, 2015. a
Morel, C. and Senesi, S.: A climatology of mesoscale convective systems over Europe using satellite infrared imagery. I: Methodology, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 1953–1971, 2002. a
Murillo, E. M. and Homeyer, C. R.: Severe hail fall and hailstorm detection using remote sensing observations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 947–970, 2019. a
Nisi, L., Martius, O., Hering, A., Kunz, M., and Germann, U.: Spatial and temporal distribution of hailstorms in the Alpine region: a long-term, high resolution, radar-based analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 1590–1604, 2016. a
Nisi, L., Hering, A., Germann, U., and Martius, O.: A 15-year hail streak climatology for the Alpine region, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 1429–1449, 2018. a
Ortega, K. L.: Evaluating multi-radar, multi-sensor products for surface hailfall diagnosis, E-J. Sever. Storms Meteorol., 13, 1–36, https://doi.org/10.55599/ejssm.v13i1.69, 2018. a
Palencia, C., Giaiotti, D., Stel, F., Castro, A., and Fraile, R.: Maximum hailstone size: Relationship with meteorological variables, Atmos. Res., 96, 256–265, 2010. a
Paterson, D. A. and Sankaran, R.: Hail impact on building envelopes, J. Wind Eng. Indust. Aerodynam., 53, 229–246, 1994. a
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung L.: A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, 2015. a, b
Prein, A. F., Rasmussen, R. M., Ikeda, K., Liu, C., Clark, M. P., and Holland, G. J.: The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 48–52, 2017. a
Proud, S. R.: Analysis of overshooting top detections by Meteosat Second Generation: a 5-year dataset, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 909–915, 2015. a
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rädler, A. T., Tijssen, L., Nikulin, G., Prein, A. F., van Meijgaard, E., Fealy, R., Jacob, D., and Teichmann, C.: Future changes in European severe convection environments in a regional climate model ensemble, J. Climate, 30, 6771–6794, 2017. a
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Taszarek, M., and Battaglioli, F.: Pre-storm environments and storm-scale properties of the major hailstorms of 2021 and 2022 in Europe, in: 11th European Conference on Severe Storms, 8–12 May 2023, Bucharest, Romania, ECSS2023-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/ecss2023-124, 2023. a
Punge, H. J., Bedka, K. M., Kunz, M., Bang, S. D., and Itterly, K. F.: Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d
Puskeiler, M., Kunz, M., and Schmidberger, M.: Hail statistics for Germany derived from single-polarization radar data, Atmos. Res., 178, 459–470, 2016. a
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P., Faust, E., and Sausen, R.: Detecting severe weather trends using an additive regressive convective hazard model (AR-CHaMo), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 569–587, 2018. a
Reynolds, D. W.: Observations of damaging hailstorms from geosynchronous satellite digital data, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 337–348, 1980. a
Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and Lunkeit, F.: Global climatology of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmos. Res., 93, 534–545, 2009. a
Sánchez, J., Gil-Robles, B., Dessens, J., Martin, E., Lopez, L., Marcos, J., Berthet, C., Fernández, J., and García-Ortega, E.: Characterization of hailstone size spectra in hailpad networks in France, Spain, and Argentina, Atmos. Res., 93, 641–654, 2009. a
Sartori, G.: Eventi meteorologici estremi, Dati e valutazioni sulla radicalizzazione del clima in Veneto, Rapporto Tecnico, Consiglio Regionale del Veneto, https://www.yumpu.com/it/document/view/15065933/eventi-meteorologici-estremi-consiglio-regionale-veneto (last access: 10 July 2024), 2012. a
Schättler, U., Doms, G., and Schraff, C.: A description of the nonhydrostatic regional COSMO-model. Part VII: user's guide, Rep. COSMO-Model, Deutscher Wetterdienst, p. 195, https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_pub/nwv/cosmo-doc_6.00_VII, 2018. a
Schmetz, J., Pili, P., Tjemkes, S., Just, D., Kerkmann, J., Rota, S., and Ratier, A.: An introduction to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 977–992, 2002. a
Seneviratne, S., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S., Wehner, M., and Zhou, B.: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2021. a
Setvák, M., Bedka, K., Lindsey, D. T., Sokol, A., Charvát, Z., Št'ástka, J., and Wang, P. K.: A-Train observations of deep convective storm tops, Atmos. Res., 123, 229–248, 2013. a
Sherwood, S. C., Chae, J.-H., Minnis, P., and McGill, M.: Underestimation of deep convective cloud tops by thermal imagery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019699, 2004. a
Svabik, O., Meyer, V., Tüchler, L., and Zenkl, G.: Hail risk areas in Austria, on the basis of reports 1971–2011 and weather radar images 2002–2011, in: 7th European Conference on Severe Storms, 3–7 June 2013, Helsinki, Finland, p. 2, https://www.essl.org/ECSS/2013/programme/abstracts/50.pdf (last access: 10 July 2024), 2013. a
Tang, B. H., Gensini, V. A., and Homeyer, C. R.: Trends in United States large hail environments and observations, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 1–7, 2019. a
Taszarek, M., Brooks, H. E., Czernecki, B., Szuster, P., and Fortuniak, K.: Climatological aspects of convective parameters over Europe: A comparison of ERA-Interim and sounding data, J. Climate, 31, 4281–4308, 2018. a
Thompson, R. L., Edwards, R., Hart, J. A., Elmore, K. L., and Markowski, P.: Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle, Weather Forecast., 18, 1243–1261, 2003. a
Tiesi, A., Mazzà, S., Conte, D., Ricchi, A., Baldini, L., Montopoli, M., Picciotti, E., Vulpiani, G., Ferretti, R., and Miglietta, M. M.: Numerical simulation of a Giant-hail-bearing Mediterranean supercell in the Adriatic Sea, Atmosphere, 13, 1219, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081219, 2022. a
Tippett, M. K., Sobel, A. H., Camargo, S. J., and Allen, J. T.: An empirical relation between US tornado activity and monthly environmental parameters, J. Climate, 27, 2983–2999, 2014. a
Torralba, V., Hénin, R., Cantelli, A., Scoccimarro, E., Materia, S., Manzato, A., and Gualdi, S.: Modelling hail hazard over Italy with ERA5 large-scale variables, Weather Clim. Extrem., 39, 100535, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100535, 2023. a, b, c, d
Trapp, R. J. and Hoogewind, K. A.: The realization of extreme tornadic storm events under future anthropogenic climate change, J. Climate, 29, 5251–5265, 2016. a
Trapp, R. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Brooks, H. E., Baldwin, M. E., Robinson, E. D., and Pal, J. S.: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 19719–19723, 2007. a
Wellmann, C., Barrett, A. I., Johnson, J. S., Kunz, M., Vogel, B., Carslaw, K. S., and Hoose, C.: Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, 2020. a
Wilhelm, J., Mohr, S., Punge, H. J., Mühr, B., Schmidberger, M., Daniell, J. E., Bedka, K. M., and Kunz, M.: Severe thunderstorms with large hail across Germany in June 2019, Weather, 76, 228–237, 2021. a
Wilhelmson, R. B. and Wicker, L. J.: Numerical modeling of severe local storms, in: Severe convective storms, Springer, 123–166, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-06-5_4, 2001. a
Wu, C.-M. and Arakawa, A.: A unified representation of deep moist convection in numerical modeling of the atmosphere. Part II, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2089–2103, 2014. a
Xie, B., Zhang, Q., and Wang, Y.: Trends in hail in China during 1960–2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L13801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034067, 2008. a
Yeo, S., Leigh, R., and Kuhne, I.: The April 1999 Sydney Hailstorm, Aust. J. Emerg. Manage., 14, 23–25, 1999. a
Zhou, J., Pavek, M. J., Shelton, S. C., Holden, Z. J., and Sankaran, S.: Aerial multispectral imaging for crop hail damage assessment in potato, Comput. Elect. Agricult., 127, 406–412, 2016. a
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint