Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024
Brief communication
 | 
11 Jun 2024
Brief communication |  | 11 Jun 2024

Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data

Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington

Related authors

Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields
Mark S. Bebbington, Melody G. Whitehead, and Gabor Kereszturi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2010,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2010, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Recent large-inland-lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: processes, causes, and mechanisms
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary
Dynamics and impacts of monsoon-induced geological hazards: a 2022 flood study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Arnaud, P., Bouvier, C., Cisneros, L., and Dominguez, R.: Influence of rainfall spatial variability on flood prediction, J. Hydrol., 260, 216–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00611-4, 2002. 
Burton, A., Kilsby, C., Fowler, H., Cowpertwait, P., and O'Connell, P.: RainSim: A spatial–temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system, Environ. Modell. Softw., 23, 1356–1369, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.04.003, 2008. 
Chappell, P. R.: The climate and weather of Bay of Plenty, 3rd edn., NIWA Science and Technology Series, Number 62, https://niwa.co.nz/static/BOP ClimateWEB.pdf (last access: 23 August 2023), 2013. 
DiCiccio, T. and Efron, B.: Bootstrap Confidence Intervals, Stat. Sci., 11, 189–212, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2246110 (last access: 5 June 2024), 1996. 
Fox, J. and Weisberg, S.: An R Companion to Applied Regression, 3rd edn., Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks CA, USA, 576 pp., https://socialsciences.mcmaster.ca/jfox/Books/Companion/ (last access: 5 June 2024), 2019. 
Download
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint