In volcanic fields, the location of an eruptive vent controls the hazards, their intensities, and ultimately the impact of the eruption. Estimates of where future eruptions are likely to occur inform evacuation plans, the (re)location of vital infrastructure, and the placement of early-warning monitoring equipment. Current estimates assume that locations with more past-vents are more likely to produce future-vents. We provide the formulae for an alternative hypothesis of magma depletion.

In this paper, we develop a model to quantify the future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand. We use the model to simulate 10 000 possible volcanic futures and collate results into risk-type metrics. The results highlight the variation in risk exposure across farms and show that volcanic risk should play an important role in shaping the future of Taranaki’s dairy sector. This model could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts.