Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 May 2024
Research article |
| 08 May 2024
| 08 May 2024
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Thomé Kraus
Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Bruno Mazzorana
Faculty of Sciences, Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile
Johannes Holzner
Faculty of Agricultural, Environmental and Food Sciences, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, 39100 Bozen-Bolzano, Italy
Andrea Andreoli
Faculty of Agricultural, Environmental and Food Sciences, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, 39100 Bozen-Bolzano, Italy
Francesco Comiti
Faculty of Agricultural, Environmental and Food Sciences, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, 39100 Bozen-Bolzano, Italy
Bernhard Gems
Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Related authors
No articles found.
Giulia Zuecco, Anam Amin, Jay Frentress, Michael Engel, Chiara Marchina, Tommaso Anfodillo, Marco Borga, Vinicio Carraro, Francesca Scandellari, Massimo Tagliavini, Damiano Zanotelli, Francesco Comiti, and Daniele Penna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3673–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the variability in the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by two different methods, i.e., cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD) and Scholander-type pressure chamber (SPC). Our results indicated that the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by CVD and SPC was significantly different. We concluded that plant water extraction by SPC is not an alternative for CVD as SPC mostly extracts the mobile plant water whereas CVD retrieves all water stored in the sampled tissue.
Andreas Schimmel, Velio Coviello, and Francesco Comiti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of debris flow velocity and volume is a fundamental task for the development of early warning systems and other mitigation measures. This work provides a first approach for estimating the velocity and the total volume of debris flows based on the seismic signal detected with simple, low-cost geophones installed along the debris flow channel. The developed method was applied to seismic data collected at three test sites in the Alps: Gadria and Cancia (IT) and Lattenbach (AT).
Andrea Franco, Jasper Moernaut, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, Michael Strasser, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2255–2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2255-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2255-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study highlights the use of the software Flow-3D in reproducing landslide-generated impulse waves. Due to the available data and the possibility of comparing the results with other previous works, a numerical modelling investigation on the 1958 Lituya Bay tsunami event is proposed. It is noted that the rockslide impact into the waterbody has a key role in the wave initiation and thus its propagation. The concept used in this work can be applied to prevent such phenomena in future.
Michael Engel, Daniele Penna, Giacomo Bertoldi, Gianluca Vignoli, Werner Tirler, and Francesco Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2041–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2041-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2041-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometric and geochemical dynamics are controlled by interplay of meteorological conditions, topography and geological heterogeneity. Nivo-meteorological indicators (such as global solar radiation, temperature and decreasing snow depth) explain monthly conductivity and isotopic dynamics best. These insights are important for better understanding hydrochemical responses of glacierized catchments under a changing cryosphere.
Joshua I. Theule, Stefano Crema, Lorenzo Marchi, Marco Cavalli, and Francesco Comiti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1-2018, 2018
Diego Ravazzolo, Luca Mao, Bruno Mazzorana, and Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2053–2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2053-2017, 2017
A. Antonello, S. Franceschi, V. Floreancig, F. Comiti, and G. Tonon
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-4-W2, 27–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W2-27-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W2-27-2017, 2017
Daniele Penna, Michael Engel, Giacomo Bertoldi, and Francesco Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-23-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-23-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this research we used environmental tracers in the Saldur River catchment, Italian Alps to obtain new insight into the hydrology of glacierized catchments. We analysed the spatio-temporal variability of the tracer signature within the catchment, distinguished the contribution of groundwater, glacier melt and snowmelt to stream discharge, identified the sources of uncertainty in the estimation of streamflow components and presented a paradigm of hydrological function of glacierized catchments.
Bernhard Gems, Bruno Mazzorana, Thomas Hofer, Michael Sturm, Roman Gabl, and Markus Aufleger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1351–1368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The presented study deals with numerical modelling of floods and their interactions with buildings. By means of a case study application, a commercial software is applied to simulate flooding within a test site situated in South Tyrol (Italy). A single-family house is thereby considered and exposed to specific flood discharges. The study shows possibilities and limits of numerical modelling techniques within flood risk management and, thereby, the planning of local structural protection measures.
R. Gabl, J. Seibl, B. Gems, and M. Aufleger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2617–2630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2617-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2617-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on a new and practical way to model an avalanche for a 3D-numerical simulation with the software FLOW-3D. The main goal is to simulate the induced impulse wave in a reservoir in order to quantify the amount of overtopping water. A generalised geometry is used to validate the concept with the help of existing simplified formulas for this paper.
A. Dell'Agnese, F. Brardinoni, M. Toro, L. Mao, M. Engel, and F. Comiti
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 527–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-527-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-527-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper assesses bedload transport in a formerly glaciated high-mountain basin by means of a virtual velocities approach. Virtual velocities were derived by surveying tracers movement over a 3-year study period. Tracers were deployed in two contrasting sites, a fluvially dominated hanging valley and a downstream relict glacial trough where periodic colluvial sediment inputs from tributaries are experienced. We also investigate contribution given to bedload transport by rainfall and snowmelt.
A. Lucía, F. Comiti, M. Borga, M. Cavalli, and L. Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1741–1755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1741-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1741-2015, 2015
M. Arattano, V. Coviello, M. Cavalli, F. Comiti, P. Macconi, J. Theule, and S. Crema
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1545–1549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1545-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A testing field for debris flow Early Warning Systems (EWSs) has been equipped in the Gadria basin (eastern Italian Alps). The installation is conceived to produce didactic videos and host informative visits. The populace involvement and education is an essential step in hazard mitigation interventions and it should be planned during any research activity on that topic. In the summer of 2014, the occurrence of a debris flow in the Gadria creek allowed for a first test of a geophone-based EWS.
D. Penna, M. Engel, L. Mao, A. Dell'Agnese, G. Bertoldi, and F. Comiti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5271–5288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5271-2014, 2014
B. Mazzorana, S. Simoni, C. Scherer, B. Gems, S. Fuchs, and M. Keiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3817–3836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3817-2014, 2014
B. Gems, M. Wörndl, R. Gabl, C. Weber, and M. Aufleger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 175–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-175-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-175-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
A downward counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Text-mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts during multi-year drought
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
The value of ultra-detailed survey data for an improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Brief communication: SWM: Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings
Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysis
A multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depth
Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain
Interactions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model data
Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Mülchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all investigated regions of Switzerland. Our results highlight the benefits and need of both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent run off reaction.
Our results show, that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks by the factor 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects . We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it's crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinasa, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on experiences in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions in order to maximise efficiency and estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents SWM, a stochastic weather model that produces catchment-scale stochastically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time- and spatially varying, risk assessments.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Cited articles
Ancey, C.: Bedload transport: A walk between randomness and determinism. part 1. the state of the art, J. Hydraul. Res., 58, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2019.1702594, 2020a.
Ancey, C.: Bedload transport: A walk between randomness and determinism. part 2. challenges and prospects, J. Hydraul. Res., 58, 18–33, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2019.1702595, 2020b.
Aufleger, M.: Flussmorphologische Modell. Grundlagen und Anwendungsgrenzen. Berichte des Lehrstuhls und der Versuchsanstalt für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtshaft, Band Nr. 104, TU München, 198–207, 2006.
Aulitzky, H.: Preliminary two-fold classification of debris torrents, in: Vol. 4, Conference Proceedings of Interpraevent 1980, 8–12 September 1980, Bad Ischl, Austria, 285–309, 1980.
Aulitzky, H.: The debris flows of Austria, Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ., 40, 5–13, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02590338, 1989.
Baranovskiy, N. V.: The development of application to software origin pro for informational analysis and forecast of forest fire danger caused by thunderstorm activity, J. Automat. Inf. Sci., 51, 12–23, https://doi.org/10.1615/jautomatinfscien.v51.i4.20, 2019.
Benda, L., Andras, K., Miller, D., and Bigelow, P.: Confluence effects in rivers: Interactions of basin scale, network geometry, and disturbance regimes, Water Resour. Res., 40, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003wr002583, 2004.
Best, J. L.: Flow Dynamics at River Channel Confluences: Implications for Sediment Transport and Bed Morphology, in: Recent Developments in Fluvial Sedimentology, SEPM Special Publication, edited by: Etheridge, F. G., Flores, R. M., and Harvey, M. D., Society for Sedimentary Geology, Tulsa, OK, 27–35, https://doi.org/10.2110/pec.87.39.0027, 1987.
Best, J. L.: Sediment transport and bed morphology at river channel confluences, Sedimentology, 35, 481–498, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3091.1988.tb00999.x, 1988.
Biron, P., Roy, A. G., Best, J. L., and Boyer, C. J.: Bed morphology and sedimentology at the confluence of unequal depth channels, Geomorphology, 8, 115–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-555x(93)90032-w, 1993.
Biron, P., Roy, A. G., and Best, J. L.: Turbulent flow structure at concordant and discordant open-channel confluences, Exp. Fluids, 21, 437–446, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00189046, 1996.
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R. A., Merz, B., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Frolova, N., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Živković, N.: Changing climate shifts timing of European floods, Science, 357, 588–590, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506, 2017.
Blöschl, G., Kiss, A., Viglione, A., Barriendos, M., Böhm, O., Brázdil, R., Coeur, D., Demarée, G., Llasat, M. C., Macdonald, N., Retsö, D., Roald, L., Schmocker-Fackel, P., Amorim, I., Bělínová, M., Benito, G., Bertolin, C., Camuffo, D., Cornel, D., Doktor, R., Elleder, L., Enzi, S., Garcia, J. C., Glaser, R., Hall, J., Haslinger, K., Hofstätter, M., Komma, J., Limanówka, D., Lun, D., Panin, A., Parajka, J., Petrić, H., Rodrigo, F. S., Rohr, C., Schönbein, J., Schulte, L., Silva, L. P., Toonen, W. H. J., Valent, P., Waser, J., and Wetter, O.: Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years, Nature, 583, 560–566, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2478-3, 2020.
Boyer, C., Roy, A. G., and Best, J. L.: Dynamics of a river channel confluence with discordant beds: Flow turbulence, bed load sediment transport, and bed morphology, J. Geophys. Res., 111, F04007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jf000458, 2006.
Bradbrook, K. F., Biron, P. M., Lane, S. N., Richards, K. S., and Roy, A. G.: Investigation of controls on secondary circulation in a simple confluence geometry using a three-dimensional numerical model, Hydrol. Process., 12, 1371–1396, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19980630)12:8<1371::AID-HYP620>3.0.CO;2-C, 1998.
Bunte, K., and Abt, S. R.: Sampling surface and subsurface particle size distributions in wadable gravel- and cobble-bed streams for analysis in sediment transport, hydraulics, and streambed monitoring, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-74, US Dep. of Agric., For. Serv., Rocky Mt. Res. Stn., Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, p. 428, https://doi.org/10.2737/RMRS-GTR-74, 2001.
Chanson, H.: The hydraulics of open channel flow, Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, UK, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-7506-5978-9.X5000-4, 2004.
Chow, V. T.: Open Channel Hydraulics, McGraw-Hill, New York, ISBN 9780070859067, 1959.
Darby, S. E. and Van De Wiel, M. J.: Models in fluvial geomorphology, in Tools in Fluvial Geomorphology, edited by: Kondolf, G. M. and Piégay, H., John Wiley, Chichester, UK, 503–537, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118648551.ch17, 2003.
Davies, T. R. H., and A. J. Sutherland: Extremal hypotheses for river behaviour, Water Resour. Res., 19, 141–148, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR019i001p00141, 1983.
Delacre, M., Leys, C., Mora, Y., and Lakens, D.: Taking Parametric Assumptions Seriously: Arguments for the Use of Welch's F-test instead of the Classical F-test in One-Way ANOVA, Int. Rev. Soc. Psychol., 32, 13, https://doi.org/10.5334/irsp.198, 2019.
De Serres, B., Roy, A., Biron, P., and Best, J. L.: Three-dimensional flow structure at a river channel confluence with discordant beds, Geomorphology, 26, 313–335, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(98)00064-6, 1999.
Dunn, O. J.: Multiple comparisons using rank sums, Technometrics, 6, 241–252, https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1964.10490181, 1964.
Embleton-Hamann, C.: Geomorphological Hazards in Austria, in: Geomorphological Hazards of Europe, edited by: Embleton, C. and Embleton-Hamann, C., Elsevier Science Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0928-2025(97)80002-8, 1997.
Ferguson, R. and Hoey, T.: Effects of Tributaries on Main-Channel Geomorphology, in: River Confluences, Tributaries and the Fluvial Network, edited by: Rice, S. P, Roy, A. G., and Rhoads, B. L., John Wiley & Sons Hoboken, New Jersey, 183–206, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470760383.ch10, 2008.
Gems, B., Sturm, M., Vogl, A., Weber, C., and Aufleger , M.: Analysis of Damage Causing Hazard Processes on a Torrent Fan – Scale Model Tests of the Schnannerbach Torrent Channel and its Entry to the Receiving Water, in: Conference Proceedings of Interpraevent 2014 in the Pacific Rim, 25–28 November 2014, Nara, Japan, 170–178, 2014.
Gems, B., Kammerlander, J., Aufleger, M., and Moser, M.: Fluviatile Feststoffereignisse, in: ExtremA 2019, Aktueller Wissensstand zu Extremereignissen alpiner Naturgefahren in Österreich, edited by: Glade, T., Mergili, M., and. Sattler K., Vienna University Press, 287–321, ISBN 9783847110927, 2020.
Guillén-Ludeña, S., Franca, M. J., Cardoso, A. H., and Schleiss, A.: Hydro-morphodynamic evolution in a 90° movable bed discordant confluence with low discharge ratio, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 40, 1927–1938, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3770, 2015.
Guillén-Ludeña, S., Cheng, Z., Constantinescu, G., and Franca, M. J.: Hydrodynamics of mountain-river confluences and its relationship to sediment transport, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 122, 901–924, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jf004122, 2017.
Hanus, S., Hrachowitz, M., Zekollari, H., Schoups, G., Vizcaino, M., and Kaitna, R.: Future changes in annual, seasonal and monthly runoff signatures in contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3429–3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, 2021.
Heller, V.: Scale effects in physical hydraulic engineering models, J. Hydraul. Res., 49, 293–306, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2011.578914, 2011.
Hübl, J. and Moser, M.: Risk management in Lattenbach: A case study from Austria, WIT Press, 333–342, https://doi.org/10.2495/deb060321, 2006.
Hübl, J., Ganahl, E., Bacher, M., Chiari, M., Holub, M., Kaitna, R., Prokop, A., Dunwoody, G., Forster, A., and Schneiderbauer, S.: Dokumentation der Wildbachereignisse vom 22./23. August 2005 in Tirol, Band 1: Generelle Aufnahme (5W-Standard); IAN Report 109 Band 1, Institut für Alpine Naturgefahren, Universität für Bodenkultur-Wien, unveröffentlicht, 2005.
Hübl, J., Eisl, J., and Tadler, R.: Ereignisdokumentation 2012, Jahresrückblick der Ereignisse, IAN Report 150, Band 3, Institut für Alpine Naturgefahren, Universität für Bodenkultur – Wien, unveröffentlicht, 2012.
Kammerlander, J., Gems, B., Sturm, M., and Aufleger, M.: Analysis of Flood Related Processes at Confluences of Steep Tributary Channels and Their Respective Receiving Streams – 2d Numerical Modelling Application, in: Conference Proceedings of Interpraevent 2016, 30 May–2 June 2016,Lucerne, Switzerland, 319–326, 2016.
Keiler, M., Knight, J., and Harrison, S.: Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the Eastern European Alps, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 368, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0047, 2010.
Knight, J. and Harrison, S.: Sediments and future climate, Nat. Geosci., 2, 230–230, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo491, 2009.
Lane, E. W.: The importance of fluvial morphology in hydraulic engineering, J. Hydraul. Eng.-ASCE, 81, 1–17, 1955.
Leite Ribeiro, M., Blanckaert, K., Roy, A. G., and Schleiss, A. J.: Hydromorphological implications of local tributary widening for river rehabilitation, Water. Resour. Res., 48, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011wr011296, 2012a.
Leite Ribeiro, M., Blanckaert, K., Roy, A. G., and Schleiss, A. J.: Flow and sediment dynamics in channel confluences J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117, F01035, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jf002171, 2012b.
Liu, T., Fan, B., and Lu, J.: Sediment-flow interactions at channel confluences: A flume study, Adv. Mech. Eng., 7, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1177/1687814015590525, 2015.
Löschner, L., Herrnegger, M., Apperl, B., Senoner, T., Seher, W., and Nachtnebel, H. P.: Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities, Reg. Environ. Change, 17, 311–322, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1009-0, 2017.
Massey, F. J.: The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 46, 68–78, https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1951.10500769, 1951.
Maxwell, S. E. and Delaney, H. D.: Designing experiments and analyzing data, in: 2nd Edn., Routledge, New York, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781410609243, 2004.
McKnight, P. E. and Najab, J.: Mann–Whitney U Test, in: The Corsini Encyclopedia of Psychology 1-1, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470479216.corpsy0524, 2010.
Meunier, M.: Eìleìments d'hydraulique Torrentielle, Cemagref, France, EAN13 9782759212088, 1991.
Miller, J. P.: High mountain streams: effects of geology on channel characteristics and bed material. Mem. State Bureau of Mines and Mineral Resources, New Mexico Institute of Mining & Technology, Socorro, New Mexico, 1–53, https://geoinfo.nmt.edu/publications/monographs/memoirs/downloads/4/Memoir_04.pdf (last access: 1 August 2023), 1958.
Moder, K.: Alternatives to F-test in one-way ANOVA in case of heterogeneity of variances (a simulation study), Psychol. Test Assess. Model., 52, 343–353, 2010.
Mosley, M. P.: An experimental study of channel confluences, J. Geol., 84, 535–562, https://doi.org/10.1086/628230, 1976.
Mueller, E. R. and Pitlick, J.: Morphologically based model of bed load transport capacity in a headwater stream, J. Geophys. Res., 110, F02016, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jf000117, 2005.
Oliveto, G. and Hager, W. H.: Further results to time dependent local scour at bridge elements, J. Hydraul. Eng., 131, 97–105, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2005)131:2(97), 2005.
Penna, N., De Marchis, M., Canelas, O. B., Napoli, E., Cardoso, A. H., and Gaudio, R.: Effect of the Junction Angle on Turbulent Flow at a Hydraulic Confluence, Water, 10, 469, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040469, 2018.
Prenner, D., Hrachowitz, M., and Kaitna, R.: Trigger characteristics of torrential flows from high to low alpine regions, Austria, Sci. Total. Environ., 658, 958–972, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.206, 2018.
Rhoads, B. and Kenworthy, S.: Flow structure at an asymmetrical confluence, Geomorphology, 11, 273–293, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-555X(94)00069-4, 1995.
Rice, S.: Which tributaries disrupt downstream fining along gravel-bed rivers?, Geomorphology, 22, 39–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-555x(97)00052-4, 1998.
Roca, M., Martín-Vide, J. P., and Martin-Moreta, P.: Modelling a torrential event in a river confluence, J. Hydrol., 364, 207–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.10.020, 2009.
Rom, J., Haas, F., Hofmeister, F., Fleischer, F., Altmann, M., Pfeiffer, M., Heckmann, T., and Becht, M.: Analysing the large-scale debris flow event in July 2022 in Horlachtal, Austria, using remote sensing and measurement data, Geosci. J., 13, 100, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13040100, 2023.
Roy, A. and Bergeron, N.: Flow and particle paths at a natural river confluence with coarse bed material, Geomorphology, 3, 99–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-555x(90)90039-s, 1990.
Rudolf-Miklau, F. and Suda, J.: Design Criteria for Torrential Barriers, in: Dating Torrential Processes on Fans and Cones. Advances in Global Change Resource, vol. 47, edited by: Schneuwly-Bollschweiler, M., Stoffel, M., and Rudolf-Miklau, F., Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4336-6_26, 2013.
Ruxton, G. D. and Beauchamp, G.: Time for some a priori thinking about post hoc testing, Behav. Ecol., 19, 690–693, https://doi.org/10.1093/beheco/arn020, 2008.
Sawyer, S.: Analysis of Variance: The Fundamental Concepts, J. Man. Manipul. Ther., 17, 27E–38E, https://doi.org/10.1179/jmt.2009.17.2.27E, 2009.
Steinskog, D. J., Tjøstheim, D. B., and Kvamstø, N. G.: A cautionary note on the use of the Kolmogorov–Simonov test for normality, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 1151–1157, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr3326.1, 2007.
Stevenson, K. J.: Review of OriginPro 8.5, J. Am. Chem. Soc., 133, 5621–5621, https://doi.org/10.1021/ja202216h, 2011.
Stoffel, M.: Magnitude–frequency relationships of debris flows – a case study based on field surveys and tree-ring records, Geomorphology, 116, 67–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.10.009, 2010.
Stoffel, M. and Huggel, C.: Effects of climate change on mass movements in mountain environments, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 36, 421–439, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133312441010, 2012.
St. Pierre Ostrander, T., Holzner, J., Mazzorana, B., Gorfer, M., Andreoli, A., Comiti, F., and Gems, B.: Confluence morphodynamics in mountain rivers in response to intense tributary bedload input, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 48, 2277–2298, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5613, 2023.
Sturm, M., Gems, B., Keller, F., Mazzorana, B., Fuchs, S., Papathoma-Köhle, M., and Aufleger, M.: Experimental analyses of impact forces on buildings exposed to fluvial hazards, J. Hydrol., 565, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.070, 2018.
Trevisani, S., Cavalli, M., and Marchi, L.: Reading the bed morphology of a mountain stream: A geomorphometric study on high-resolution topographic data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 393–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-393-2010, 2010.
Wang, X. K., Wang, X., Lu, W., and Liu, T.: Experimental study on flow behavior at open channel confluences, Front. Struct. Civ. Eng., 1, 211–216, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-007-0025-z, 2007.
Welch, B. L.: The generalization of `student's' problem when several different population variances are involved, Biometrika, 34, 28–35, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/34.1-2.28, 1947.
White, W. R., R. Bettess, and Paris, E.: Analytical approach to river regime, J. Hydraul. Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 108, 1179–1193, https://doi.org/10.1061/JYCEAJ.0005914, 1982.
Williams, G. P.: Flume width and water depth effects in sediment-transport experiments – Sediment transport in alluvial channels, USGS Professional Paper, USGS, https://doi.org/10.3133/pp562h, 1970.
Witte, R. S. and Witte, J. S.: Statistics, in: 11th Edn., Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, ISBN 1119386055, 2017.
Wohl, E. E.: Mountain rivers revisited. American Geophysical Union/Geopress, Washington, D.C., ISBN 9780875903231, 2010.
Yang, C. T.: Minimum unit stream power and fluvial hydraulics, J. Hydraul. Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 102, 919–934, https://doi.org/10.1061/JYCEAJ.0004589, 1976.
Yang, C. T. and Song, C. C. S.: Theory of minimum rate of energy dissipation, J. Hydraul. Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 105, 769–784, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR017i004p01014, 1979.
Young, W. J. and Warburton, J.: Principles and practice of hydraulic modelling of braided gravel-bed rivers, J. Hydrol. NZ, 35, 175–198, 1996.
Zarn, B.: Lokale Gerinneaufweitung: Eine Massnahmezur Sohlenstabilisierung der Emme bei Utzenstorf (Localriver expansion: A measure to stabilize the bed of Emme River at Utzendorf), VAW Mitteilung 118, edited: Vischerr, D., ETH Zurich, Zurich, https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/baug/vaw/vaw-dam/documents/das-institut/mitteilungen/1990-1999/118.pdf (last access: 3 September 2023), 1992.
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint