Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 24 Apr 2024
| 24 Apr 2024
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Cathryn E. Birch
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Steven J. Böing
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Thomas Willis
School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Linda Speight
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
Aurore N. Porson
Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Charlie Pilling
Flood Forecasting Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Kay L. Shelton
JBA Consulting, Skipton, BD23 3FD, United Kingdom
Mark A. Trigg
School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Related authors
No articles found.
Declan L. Finney, Alan M. Blyth, Paul R. Field, Martin I. Daily, Benjamin J. Murray, Mengyu Sun, Paul J. Connolly, Zhiqiang Cui, and Steven Böing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1227, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
We present observation-informed modelling from the Deep Convective Microphysics Experiment to study how environmental conditions and cloud processes affect anvil cloud albedo and radiation. Aerosols influencing cloud droplets or influencing ice formation yield varying radiative effects. We introduce fingerprint metrics to discern these effects. Using detailed observations and modelling, we offer insights into high cloud radiative effects and feedbacks.
Mike Bush, David L. A. Flack, Huw W. Lewis, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Chris J. Short, Charmaine Franklin, Adrian P. Lock, Martin Best, Paul Field, Anne McCabe, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Segolene Berthou, Ian Boutle, Jennifer K. Brooke, Seb Cole, Shaun Cooper, Gareth Dow, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Kalli Furtado, Kate Halladay, Kirsty Hanley, Margaret A. Hendry, Adrian Hill, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Richard W. Jones, Humphrey Lean, Joshua C. K. Lee, Andy Malcolm, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Stuart Moore, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Susan Rennie, Nigel Roberts, Belinda Roux, Claudio Sanchez, Chun-Hsu Su, Simon Tucker, Simon Vosper, David Walters, James Warner, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Michael Whitall, Keith D. Williams, and Hugh Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-201, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
RAL configurations define settings for the Unified Model atmosphere and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The third version of the Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL3) science configuration for kilometre and sub-km scale modelling represents a major advance compared to previous versions (RAL2) by delivering a common science definition for applications in tropical and mid-latitude regions. RAL3 has more realistic precipitation distributions and improved representation of clouds and visibility.
Helen Hooker, Sarah Dance, David Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-178, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a method that uses satellite data to enhance flood map selection for forecast-based financing applications. Tested on the 2022 Pakistan floods, it successfully triggered flood maps in four out of five regions, including those with urban areas. The approach ensures timely humanitarian aid by updating flood maps, even when initial triggers are missed, aiding in better disaster preparedness and risk management.
Emma Howard, Steven Woolnough, Nicholas Klingaman, Daniel Shipley, Claudio Sanchez, Simon C. Peatman, Cathryn E. Birch, and Adrian J. Matthews
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3815–3837, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean simulation setup that will be used to study weather processes in Southeast Asia. The set-up has been used to compare high-resolution simulations, which are able to partially resolve storms, to coarser simulations, which cannot. We compare the model performance at representing variability of rainfall and sea surface temperatures across length scales between the coarse and fine models.
Declan L. Finney, Alan M. Blyth, Martin Gallagher, Huihui Wu, Graeme J. Nott, Michael I. Biggerstaff, Richard G. Sonnenfeld, Martin Daily, Dan Walker, David Dufton, Keith Bower, Steven Böing, Thomas Choularton, Jonathan Crosier, James Groves, Paul R. Field, Hugh Coe, Benjamin J. Murray, Gary Lloyd, Nicholas A. Marsden, Michael Flynn, Kezhen Hu, Navaneeth M. Thamban, Paul I. Williams, Paul J. Connolly, James B. McQuaid, Joseph Robinson, Zhiqiang Cui, Ralph R. Burton, Gordon Carrie, Robert Moore, Steven J. Abel, Dave Tiddeman, and Graydon Aulich
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2141–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The DCMEX (Deep Convective Microphysics Experiment) project undertook an aircraft- and ground-based measurement campaign of New Mexico deep convective clouds during July–August 2022. The campaign coordinated a broad range of instrumentation measuring aerosol, cloud physics, radar signals, thermodynamics, dynamics, electric fields, and weather. The project's objectives included the utilisation of these data with satellite observations to study the anvil cloud radiative effect.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Zhiqiang Cui, Alan Blyth, Ralph Burton, Sandrine Bony, Steven Böing, Alan Gadian, and Leif Denby
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1999, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Cumulus clouds near Barbados can influence how much heat and energy reaches the Earth's surface. A cluster of clouds resembling a flower is presented. Satellite images, dropsonde data, and weather data are used to understand how this cloud system developed. A significant feature was the appearance of a large area of rain at the centre of the cloud system during its later stages. The paper also studied the environmental conditions around the cloud system.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Mike Bush, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Huw Lewis, Adrian Lock, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Belinda Roux, Stuart Webster, and Mark Weeks
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1713–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on the baseline of RAL1, the RAL2 science configuration is used for regional modelling around the UM partnership and in operations at the Met Office. RAL2 has been tested in different parts of the world including Australia, India and the UK. RAL2 increases medium and low cloud amounts in the mid-latitudes compared to RAL1, leading to improved cloud forecasts and a reduced diurnal cycle of screen temperature. There is also a reduction in the frequency of heavier precipitation rates.
Mirianna Budimir, Alison Sneddon, Issy Nelder, Sarah Brown, Amy Donovan, and Linda Speight
Geosci. Commun., 5, 151–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper extracts key learning from two case studies (India and Mozambique), outlining solutions and approaches to challenges in developing forecast products. These lessons and solutions can be used by forecasters and practitioners to support the development of useful, appropriate, and co-designed forecast information for institutional decision-makers to support more effective early action in advance of disasters.
Mark V. Bernhofen, Mark A. Trigg, P. Andrew Sleigh, Christopher C. Sampson, and Andrew M. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2829–2847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2829-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2829-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The use of different global datasets to calculate flood exposure can lead to differences in global flood exposure estimates. In this study, we use three global population datasets and a simple measure of a river’s flood susceptibility (based on the terrain alone) to explore how the choice of population data and the size of river represented in global flood models affect global and national flood exposure estimates.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Jennifer Saxby, Julia Crook, Simon Peatman, Cathryn Birch, Juliane Schwendike, Maria Valdivieso da Costa, Juan Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Chris Holloway, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Ashis Mitra, and Huw Lewis
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-46, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the ability of the new Met Office IND1 numerical model to simulate tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, such as high winds and heavy rainfall. The new system consists of both atmospheric and oceanic models coupled together, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of cyclones to important air–sea feedbacks. We find that the model can accurately simulate tropical cyclone position, structure, and intensity, which are crucial for predicting and mitigating hazards.
J. Browse, K. S. Carslaw, G. W. Mann, C. E. Birch, S. R. Arnold, and C. Leck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7543–7557, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored the possibility of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Adding mixtures of 3 to 5 amendment types substantially increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion and increased microorganism abundance, while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Cited articles
Aldridge, T., Gunawan, O., Moore, R. J., Cole, S. J., Boyce, G., and Cowling, R.: Developing an impact library for forecasting surface water flood risk, J. Flood Risk Manag., 13, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12641, 2020.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.
Archer, D., O'Donnell, G., Lamb, R., Warren, S., and Fowler, H. J.: Historical flash floods in England: New regional chronologies and database, J. Flood Risk Manag., 12, e12526, https://doi.org/10.1111/JFR3.12526, 2019.
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J.: Characterising flash flood response to intense rainfall and impacts using historical information and gauged data in Britain, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11, S121–S133, https://doi.org/10.1111/JFR3.12187, 2018.
Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016.
Arnal, L., Anspoks, L., Manson, S., Neumann, J., Norton, T., Stephens, E., Wolfenden, L., and Cloke, H. L.: “Are We talking just a bit of water out of bank? or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England, Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/GC-3-203-2020, 2020.
Beck, J., Bouttier, F., Wiegand, L., Gebhardt, C., Eagle, C., and Roberts, N.: Development and verification of two convection-allowing multi-model ensembles over Western Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2808–2826, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.2870, 2016.
Bell, V. A., Kay, A. L., Jones, R. G., Moore, R. J., and Reynard, N. S.: Use of soil data in a grid-based hydrological model to estimate spatial variation in changing flood risk across the UK, J. Hydrol., 377, 335–350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.031, 2009.
Birch, C. E., Rabb, B. L., Böing, S. J., Shelton, K. L., Lamb, R., Hunter, N., Trigg, M. A., Hines, A., Taylor, A. L., Pilling, C., and Dale, M.: Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User-led development and testing, J. Flood Risk Manag., 14, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12691, 2021.
Böing, S. J., Birch, C. E., Rabb, B. L., and Shelton, K. L.: A percentile-based approach to rainfall scenario construction for surface-water flood forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 27, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1963, 2020.
Böing, S. J., Maybee, B., and Willis, T.: sjboeing/fast_rainfall_processing: FOREWARNS publication version of code (1.0.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10987887, 2024.
Brousseau, P., Berre, L., Bouttier, F., and Desroziers, G.: Background-error covariances for a convective-scale data-assimilation system: AROME–France 3D-Var, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 409–422, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.750, 2011.
Brousseau, P., Seity, Y., Ricard, D., and Léger, J.: Improvement of the forecast of convective activity from the AROME-France system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2231–2243, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.2822, 2016.
de Bruijn, J. A., de Moel, H., Jongman, B., Wagemaker, J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: TAGGS: Grouping Tweets to Improve Global Geoparsing for Disaster Response, J. Geovisualization Spat. Anal., 2, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1007/S41651-017-0010-6/TABLES/4, 2018.
de Bruijn, J. A., de Moel, H., Jongman, B., de Ruiter, M. C., Wagemaker, J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: A global database of historic and real-time flood events based on social media, Sci. Data, 6, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0326-9, 2019.
Chen, Y., Paschalis, A., Kendon, E., Kim, D., and Onof, C.: Changing Spatial Structure of Summer Heavy Rainfall, Using Convection-Permitting Ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090903, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090903, 2021.
Cole, S. J., Moore, R. J., and Mattingley, P. S.: Surface Water Flooding Component for NHP HIM: Phase 1 report. Contract Report to the Environment Agency, Research Contractor: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 55 pp., https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513835 (last access: 18 April 2024), 2015.
Coles, D., Yu, D., Wilby, R. L., Green, D., and Herring, Z.: Beyond “flood hotspots”: Modelling emergency service accessibility during flooding in York, UK, J. Hydrol., 546, 419–436, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2016.12.013, 2017.
DEFRA: Surface Water Management: An Action Plan, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, 41 pp., https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/surface-water-management-action-plan (last access: 19 April 2024), 2018.
Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. L., and Pappenberger, F.: The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management, Hydrol. Process., 27, 147–157, https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.9419, 2013.
Dottori, F., Kalas, M., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., and Feyen, L.: An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1111–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1111-2017, 2017.
Environment Agency: A National Assessment of Flood Risk, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7ba398ed915d4147621ad6/geho0609bqds-e-e.pdf (last access: 18 April 2024), 2009.
Environment Agency: What is the Risk of Flooding from Surface Water map?, 51 pp., https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5db6ded540f0b6379a7acbb8/What-is-the-Risk-of-Flooding-from-Surface-Water-Map.pdf (last access: 18 April 2024), 2019.
Erickson, M. J., Kastman, J. S., Albright, B., Perfater, S., Nelson, J. A., Schumacher, R. S., and Herman, G. R.: Verification results from the 2017 HMT–WPC flash flood and intense rainfall experiment, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 58, 2591–2604, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0097.1, 2019.
Erickson, M. J., Albright, B., and Nelson, J. A.: Verifying and redefining the weather prediction center's excessive rainfall outlook forecast product, Weather Forecast., 36, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0020.1, 2021.
Ferro, C. A. T. and Stephenson, D. B.: Extremal dependence indices: Improved Verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events, Weather Forecast., 26, 699–713, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05030.1, 2011.
Flack, D. L. A., Skinner, C. J., Hawkness-Smith, L., O'Donnell, G., Thompson, R. J., Waller, J. A., Chen, A. S., Moloney, J., Largeron, C., Xia, X., Blenkinsop, S., Champion, A. J., Perks, M. T., Quinn, N., and Speight, L. J.: Recommendations for improving integration in national end-to-end flood forecasting systems: An overview of the FFIR (Flooding From Intense Rainfall) programme, Water, 11, 725, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040725, 2019.
Frick, J. and Hegg, C.: Can end-users' flood management decision making be improved by information about forecast uncertainty?, Atmos. Res., 100, 296–303, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2010.12.006, 2011.
Frogner, I. L., Singleton, A. T., Køltzow, M., and Andrae, U.: Convection-permitting ensembles: Challenges related to their design and use, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 90–106, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3525, 2019a.
Frogner, I. L., Andrae, U. L. F., Bojarova, J., Callado, A., Escribà, P. A. U., Feddersen, H., Hally, A., Kauhanen, J., Randriamampianina, R., Singleton, A., Smet, G., van der Veen, S., and Vignes, O. L. E.: HarmonEPS – The HARMONIE Ensemble Prediction System, Weather Forecast., 34, 1909–1937, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0030.1, 2019b.
Georgakakos, K. P., Modrick, T. M., Shamir, E., Campbell, R., Cheng, Z., Jubach, R., Sperfslage, J. A., Spencer, C. R., and Banks, R.: The Flash Flood Guidance System Implementation Worldwide: A Successful Multidecadal Research-to-Operations Effort, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E665–E679, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0241.1, 2022.
Golding, B., Roberts, N., Leoncini, G., Mylne, K., and Swinbank, R.: MOGREPS-UK convection-permitting ensemble products for surface water flood forecasting: Rationale and first results, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 1383–1406, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0083.1, 2016.
Golding, B. (Ed.): Towards the “Perfect” Weather Warning, Springer International Publishing, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7, 2022.
Gourley, J. J., Erlingis, J. M., Hong, Y., and Wells, E. B.: Evaluation of tools used for monitoring and forecasting flash floods in the united states, Weather Forecast., 27, 158–173, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05043.1, 2012.
Greater London Authority: Surface Water Flooding in London: Rountable Progress Report, 44 pp., https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/flooding_progress_report_final_1.pdf (last access: 18 April 2024), 2022.
Green, D., Yu, D., Pattison, I., Wilby, R., Bosher, L., Patel, R., Thompson, P., Trowell, K., Draycon, J., Halse, M., Yang, L., and Ryley, T.: City-scale accessibility of emergency responders operating during flood events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, 2017.
Hagelin, S., Son, J., Swinbank, R., McCabe, A., Roberts, N., and Tennant, W.: The Met Office convective-scale ensemble, MOGREPS-UK, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2846–2861, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3135, 2017.
Hand, W. H., Fox, N. I., and Collier, C. G.: A study of twentieth-century extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom with implications for forecasting, Meteorol. Appl., 11, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482703001117, 2004.
Harrison, D. L., Driscoll, S. J., and Kitchen, M.: Improving precipitation estimates from weather radar using quality control and correction techniques, Meteorol. Appl., 7, 135–144, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482700001468, 2000.
Harrison, D. L., Norman, K., Pierce, C., and Gaussiat, N.: Radar products for hydrological applications in the UK, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Manag., 165, 89–103, https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.2012.165.2.89, 2012.
Hawcroft, M., Lavender, S., Copsey, D., Milton, S., Rodríguez, J., Tennant, W., Webster, S., and Cowan, T.: The Benefits of Ensemble Prediction for Forecasting an Extreme Event: The Queensland Floods of February 2019, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 2391–2408, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0330.1, 2021.
Henonin, J., Russo, B., Mark, O., and Gourbesville, P.: Real-time urban flood forecasting and modelling – a state of the art, J. Hydroinform., 15, 717–736, https://doi.org/10.2166/HYDRO.2013.132, 2013.
Herman, G. R. and Schumacher, R. S.: Flash flood verification: Pondering precipitation proxies, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1753–1776, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0092.1, 2018.
Jackson, H.: Urban flash flooding in England – an exciting new project, Circ. – Newsl. Br. Hydrol. Soc., 156, 14–15, 2023.
Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, M. J., Chan, S. C., and Senior, C. A.: Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model, Nat. Clim. Chang., 4, 570–576, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2258, 2014.
Kendon, M.: Met Office case studies of past severe weather events: Heavy rainfall July 2019, 8 pp., https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2019/2019_008_july_rainfall.pdf (last access: 18 April 2024), 2019.
Kirk, P. J., Clark, M. R., and Creed, E.: Weather Observations Website, Weather, 76, 47–49, https://doi.org/10.1002/WEA.3856, 2021.
Klasa, C., Arpagaus, M., Walser, A., and Wernli, H.: An evaluation of the convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-E for three contrasting precipitation events in Switzerland, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 744–764, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3245, 2018.
Lehner, B. and Grill, G.: Global river hydrography and network routing: baseline data and new approaches to study the world's large river systems, Hydrol. Process., 27, 2171–2186, https://doi.org/10.1002/HYP.9740, 2013.
MacLeod, D., Kilavi, M., Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Osunga, M., Robbins, J., Graham, R., Rowhani, P., and Todd, M. C.: Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021, 2021.
McCabe, A., Swinbank, R., Tennant, W., and Lock, A.: Representing model uncertainty in the Met Office convection-permitting ensemble prediction system and its impact on fog forecasting, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2897–2910, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2876, 2016.
McEwen, L., Stokes, A., Crowley, K., and Roberts, C.: Using role-play for expert science communication with professional stakeholders in flood risk management, J. Geogr. Higher Educ., 38, 277–300, https://doi.org/10.1080/03098265.2014.911827, 2014.
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N., Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F., Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K., Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpts, A.: Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020.
Met Office: Met Office Rain Radar Data from the NIMROD System, NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre [data set], http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/82adec1f896af6169112d09cc1174499 (last access: 18 April 2024), 2003.
Milan, M., Macpherson, B., Tubbs, R., Dow, G., Inverarity, G., Mittermaier, M., Halloran, G., Kelly, G., Li, D., Maycock, A., Payne, T., Piccolo, C., Stewart, L., and Wlasak, M.: Hourly 4D-Var in the Met Office UKV operational forecast model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1281–1301, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3737, 2020.
Mittermaier, M. P.: Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 445–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-445-2008, 2008.
Moore, R. J., Cole, S. J., Dunn, S., Ghimire, S., Golding, B. W., Pierce, C. E., Roberts, N. M., and Speight, L.: Surface water flood forecasting for urban communities: CREW report CRW2012_03, https://www.crew.ac.uk/sites/www.crew.ac.uk/files/sites/default/files/publication/CREW Surface water flood forecasting for urban communities_full report.pdf (last access: 18 April 2024), 2015.
Neal, R. A., Boyle, P., Grahame, N., Mylne, K., and Sharpe, M.: Ensemble based first guess support towards a risk-based severe weather warning service, Meteorol. Appl., 21, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1377, 2014.
North, R., Trueman, M., Mittermaier, M., and Rodwell, M. J.: An assessment of the SEEPS and SEDI metrics for the verification of 6 h forecast precipitation accumulations, Meteorol. Appl., 20, 164–175, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1405, 2013.
Ochoa-Rodríguez, S., Wang, L. P., Thraves, L., Johnston, A., and Onof, C.: Surface water flood warnings in England: overview, assessment and recommendations based on survey responses and workshops, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11, S211–S221, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12195, 2018.
Pilling, C.: New developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre: operations and flood risk guidance, Urban Water III, 1, 237–248, https://doi.org/10.2495/uw160211, 2016.
Porson, A. N., Carr, J. M., Hagelin, S., Darvell, R., North, R., Walters, D., Mylne, K. R., Mittermaier, M. P., Willington, S., and Macpherson, B.: Recent upgrades to the Met Office convective-scale ensemble: An hourly time-lagged 5-day ensemble, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3844, 2020.
Ramos, M. H., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2219–2232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013, 2013.
Raynaud, L., Pechin, I., Arbogast, P., Rottner, L., and Destouches, M.: Object-based verification metrics applied to the evaluation and weighting of convective-scale precipitation forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 1992–2008, https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.3540, 2019.
Roberts, N., Ayliffe, B., Evans, G., Moseley, S., Rust, F., Sandford, C., Trzeciak, T., Abernethy, P., Beard, L., Crosswaite, N., Fitzpatrick, B., Flowerdew, J., Gale, T., Holly, L., Hopkinson, A., Hurst, K., Jackson, S., Jones, C., Mylne, K., Sampson, C., Sharpe, M., Wright, B., Backhouse, S., Baker, M., Brierley, D., Booton, A., Bysouth, C., Coulson, R., Coultas, S., Crocker, R., Harbord, R., Howard, K., Hughes, T., Mittermaier, M., Petch, J., Pillinger, T., Smart, V., Smith, E., and Worsfold, M.: IMPROVER: the new probabilistic post processing system at the UK Met Office, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 1–31, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-21-0273.1, 2023.
Roebber, P. J.: Visualizing multiple measures of forecast quality, Weather Forecast., 24, 601–608, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222159.1, 2009.
Saint-Martin, C., Fouchier, C., Javelle, P., Douvinet, J., and Vinet, F.: Assessing the exposure to floods to estimate the risk of flood-related damage in French Mediterranean basins, 3rd Eur. Conf. Flood Risk Manag. FLOODRisk 2016, E3SE3S Web Conf., 7, 04013, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160704013, 2016.
Schwartz, C. S. and Sobash, R. A.: Generating probabilistic forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using neighborhood approaches: A review and recommendations, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 3397–3418, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0400.1, 2017.
Sharpe, M. A.: A flexible approach to the objective verification of warnings, Meteorol. Appl., 23, 65–75, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1530, 2016.
Sharpe, M. A., Bysouth, C. E., and Stretton, R. L.: How well do Met Office post-processed site-specific probabilistic forecasts predict relative-extreme events?, Meteorol. Appl., 25, 23–32, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1665, 2018.
Smith, L., Liang, Q., James, P., and Lin, W.: Assessing the utility of social media as a data source for flood risk management using a real-time modelling framework, J. Flood Risk Manag., 10, 370–380, https://doi.org/10.1111/JFR3.12154, 2017.
Speight, L., Cole, S. J., Moore, R. J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B., Cranston, M., Tavendale, A., Dhondia, J., and Ghimire, S.: Developing surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11, S884–S901, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12281, 2018.
Speight, L. J., Cranston, M. D., White, C. J., and Kelly, L.: Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Water, 8, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1517, 2021.
Stephenson, D. B., Casati, B., Ferro, C. A. T., and Wilson, C. A.: The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 41–50, https://doi.org/10.1002/met, 2008.
Stewart, E. J., Jones, D. A., Svensson, C., Morris, D. G., Dempsey, P., Dent, J. E., Collier, C. G., and Anderson, C. A.: Reservoir Safety – Long Return Period Rainfall, Technical Report (two volumes), Project FD2613 WS 194/2/39, DEFRA/EA FCERM R&D Programme, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/602e43e2e90e0709e3127489/_long_return_report_1.pdf (last access: 18 April 2024), 2013.
Swinbank, R., Friederichs, P., and Wahl, S.: Forecasting high-impact weather using ensemble prediction systems, in: Dynamical Prediction of Large Scale High-Impact Weather Climate Events, edited by: Li, J., Swinbank, R., Grotjahn, R., and Volkert, H., 95–112, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107775541.008, 2016.
Tennant, W.: Improving initial condition perturbations for MOGREPS-UK, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 2324–2336, 141, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2524, 2015.
Vesuviano, G.: The FEH22 rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) model, 103 pp., Science centre technical report, https://fehwebdocs.hydrosolutions.co.uk/.attachments/The FEH22 rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) model-caa11347-4ff7-4c89-b707-bf5bb1c05d79.pdf (last access: 18 April 2024), 2022.
Vesuviano, G., Stewart, E., Spencer, P., and Miller, J. D.: The effect of depth-duration-frequency model recalibration on rainfall return period estimates, J. Flood Risk Manag., 14, e12703, https://doi.org/10.1111/JFR3.12703, 2021.
Welles, E., Sorooshian, S., Carter, G., and Olsen, B.: Hydrologic verification: A call for action and collaboration, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 503–511, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-4-503, 2007.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: Fourth Edition, Elsevier B.V., Oxford, ISBN 978-0-12-815823-4, 2019.
Witherow, M. A., Sazara, C., Winter-Arboleda, I. M., Elbakary, M. I., Cetin, M., and Iftekharuddin, K. M.: Floodwater detection on roadways from crowdsourced images, Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering: Imaging & Visualization, 7, 529–540, https://doi.org/10.1080/21681163.2018.1488223, 2018.
Wu, W., Emerton, R., Duan, Q., Wood, A. W., Wetterhall, F., and Robertson, D. E.: Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Water, 7, e1432, https://doi.org/10.1002/WAT2.1432, 2020.
Yu, D. and Coulthard, T. J.: Evaluating the importance of catchment hydrological parameters for urban surface water flood modelling using a simple hydro-inundation model, J. Hydrol., 524, 385–400, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2015.02.040, 2015.
Zhang, Q., Li, L., Ebert, B., Golding, B., Johnston, D., Mills, B., Panchuk, S., Potter, S., Riemer, M., Sun, J., Taylor, A., Jones, S., Ruti, P., and Keller, J.: Increasing the value of weather-related warnings, Sci. Bull., 64, 647–649, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCIB.2019.04.003, 2019.
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint