Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
03 Apr 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 03 Apr 2024
| 03 Apr 2024
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Nils Poncet
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Philippe Lucas-Picher
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Département Des Sciences de La Terre Et de L'atmosphère, Université du Québec À Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
Yves Tramblay
Espace-Dev, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Montpellier, France
Guillaume Thirel
Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, HYCAR Research Unit, Antony, France
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Humberto Vergara
Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
Jonathan Gourley
Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
Antoinette Alias
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Eric Sauquet, Guillaume Evin, Sonia Siauve, Ryma Aissat, Patrick Arnaud, Maud Bérel, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Yvan Caballero, François Colléoni, Agnès Ducharne, Joël Gailhard, Florence Habets, Frédéric Hendrickx, Louis Héraut, Benoît Hingray, Peng Huang, Tristan Jaouen, Alexis Jeantet, Sandra Lanini, Matthieu Le Lay, Claire Magand, Louise Mimeau, Céline Monteil, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Olivier Robelin, Fabienne Rousset, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Laurent Strohmenger, Guillaume Thirel, Flore Tocquer, Yves Tramblay, Jean-Pierre Vergnes, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1788, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
The Explore2 project has provided an unprecedented set of hydrological projections in terms of the number of hydrological models used and the spatial and temporal resolution. The results have been made available through various media. Under the high-emission scenario, the hydrological models mostly agree on the decrease in seasonal flows in the south of France, confirming its hotspot status, and on the decrease in summer flows throughout France, with the exception of the northern part of France.
Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Strohmenger, Guillaume Evin, Lola Corre, Louis Heraut, and Eric Sauquet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1635, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
How climate change impacts floods in France? Using simulations for 3000 rivers in climate projections, results show that flood trends vary depending on the region. In the north, floods may become more severe, but in many other areas, the trends are mixed. Floods from intense rainfall are becoming more frequent, while snowmelt floods are strongly decreasing. Overall, the study shows that understanding what causes floods is key to predicting how they are likely to change with the climate.
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
West Africa is very vulnerable to rivers floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates how hydrological models are transferred to a period in which climate conditions are different to the ones of the period in which they were set up. The robustness assessment test built to detect dependencies between model error and climatic drivers was applied to three hydrological models in 352 catchments in Denmark, France and Sweden. Potential issues are seen in a significant number of catchments for the models, even though the catchments differ for each model.
Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, Jong Cheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Tan Jackson, and Hylke E. Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study evaluated 23 precipitation datasets using a hydrological model at global scale to assess their suitability and accuracy. We found that MSWEP V2.8 excels due to its ability to integrate data from multiple sources, while others, such as IMERG and JRA-3Q, demonstrated strong regional performances. This research assists in selecting the appropriate dataset for applications in water resource management, hazard assessment, agriculture, and environmental monitoring.
Guillaume Thirel, Léonard Santos, Olivier Delaigue, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4837–4860, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how mathematical transformations impact calibrated hydrological model simulations. We assess how 11 transformations behave over the complete range of streamflows. Extreme transformations lead to models that are specialized for extreme streamflows but show poor performance outside the range of targeted streamflows and are less robust. We show that no a priori assumption about transformations can be taken as warranted.
Diego Monteiro, Cécile Caillaud, Matthieu Lafaysse, Adrien Napoly, Mathieu Fructus, Antoinette Alias, and Samuel Morin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7645–7677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7645-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling snow cover in climate and weather forecasting models is a challenge even for high-resolution models. Recent simulations with CNRM-AROME have shown difficulties when representing snow in the European Alps. Using remote sensing data and in situ observations, we evaluate modifications of the land surface configuration in order to improve it. We propose a new surface configuration, enabling a more realistic simulation of snow cover, relevant for climate and weather forecasting applications.
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow forecasting is useful for many applications, ranging from population safety (e.g. floods) to water resource management (e.g. agriculture or hydropower). To this end, hydrological models must be optimized. However, a model is inherently wrong. This study aims to analyse the contribution of a multi-model approach within a variable spatial framework to improve streamflow simulations. The underlying idea is to take advantage of the strength of each modelling framework tested.
François Roberge, Alejandro Di Luca, René Laprise, Philippe Lucas-Picher, and Julie Thériault
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1497–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study addresses a challenge in dynamical downscaling using regional climate models, focusing on the lack of small-scale features near the boundaries. We introduce a method to identify this “spatial spin-up” in precipitation simulations. Results show spin-up distances up to 300 km, varying by season and driving variable. Double nesting with comprehensive variables (e.g. microphysical variables) offers advantages. Findings will help optimize simulations for better climate projections.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Olivier Delaigue, Pierre Brigode, Guillaume Thirel, and Laurent Coron
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3293–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. It requires appropriate tools and teaching material. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source software tool relying on widely used hydrological models. This tool proposes an interface and numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications. We show how this tool can be applied to simple but real-life cases.
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean floods are causing major damage, and recent studies have shown that, despite the increase in intense rainfall, there has been no increase in river floods. This study reveals that the seasonality of floods changed in the Mediterranean Basin during 1959–2021. There was also an increased frequency of floods linked to short episodes of intense rain, associated with a decrease in soil moisture. These changes need to be taken into consideration to adapt flood warning systems.
Simon Ricard, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Antoine Thiboult, and François Anctil
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2375–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations. Results confirm that the proposed workflow produces equivalent projections of the seasonal mean flows in comparison to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling approach. The proposed approach supports the participation of end-users in interpreting the impact of climate change on water resources.
Hanqing Chen, Debao Wen, Bin Yong, Jonathan J. Gourley, Leyang Wang, and Yang Hong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-42, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
A novel multi-source precipitation data fusion (MPDF) algorithm, which considers the dependency of precipitation errors on seasonality, was proposed to fully take advantage of the complementary strengths from satellite-only IMERG-Late, ERA5 reanalysis, and ground-based precipitation observations for generating a higher-quality global precipitation product. A new global precipitation product, namely MGP, is provided to the public.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Zhi Li, Shang Gao, Mengye Chen, Jonathan Gourley, Naoki Mizukami, and Yang Hong
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6181–6196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Operational streamflow prediction at a continental scale is critical for national water resources management. However, limited computational resources often impede such processes, with streamflow routing being one of the most time-consuming parts. This study presents a recent development of a hydrologic system that incorporates a vector-based routing scheme with a lake module that markedly speeds up streamflow prediction. Moreover, accuracy is improved and flood false alarms are mitigated.
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Ludovic Oudin, Guillaume Thirel, and Lila Collet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2147–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2147-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2147-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing temperature will impact evaporation and water resource management. Hydrological models are fed with an estimation of the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, called potential evapotranspiration (PE). The objectives of this study were (1) to compute the future PE anomaly over France and (2) to determine the impact of the choice of the method to estimate PE. Our results show that all methods present similar future trends. No method really stands out from the others.
Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
Paul Royer-Gaspard, Vazken Andréassian, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5703–5716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5703-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most evaluation studies based on the differential split-sample test (DSST) endorse the consensus that rainfall–runoff models lack climatic robustness. In this technical note, we propose a new performance metric to evaluate model robustness without applying the DSST and which can be used with a single hydrological model calibration. Our work makes it possible to evaluate the temporal transferability of any hydrological model, including uncalibrated models, at a very low computational cost.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Pierre Nicolle, Vazken Andréassian, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Charles Perrin, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Coron, and Léonard Santos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5013–5027, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this note, a new method (RAT) is proposed to assess the robustness of hydrological models. The RAT method is particularly interesting because it does not require multiple calibrations (it is therefore applicable to uncalibrated models), and it can be used to determine whether a hydrological model may be safely used for climate change impact studies. Success at the robustness assessment test is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition of model robustness.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, Antoinette Alias, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 15, 3615–3635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use empirical run-time bias correction (also called flux correction) to correct the systematic errors of the ARPEGE atmospheric climate model. When applying the method to future climate projections, we found a lesser poleward shift and an intensification of the maximum of westerly winds present in the southern high latitudes. This yields a significant additional warming of +0.6 to +0.9 K of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with respect to non-corrected control projections using the RCP8.5 scenario.
Zhi Li, Mengye Chen, Shang Gao, Jonathan J. Gourley, Tiantian Yang, Xinyi Shen, Randall Kolar, and Yang Hong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3755–3766, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3755-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3755-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset is a compilation of multi-sourced flood records, retrieved from official reports, instruments, and crowdsourcing data since 1900. This study utilizes the flood database to analyze flood seasonality within major basins and socioeconomic impacts over time. It is anticipated that this dataset can support a variety of flood-related research, such as validation resources for hydrologic models, hydroclimatic studies, and flood vulnerability analysis across the United States.
Paul C. Astagneau, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Delaigue, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, Juraj Parajka, Claudia C. Brauer, Alberto Viglione, Wouter Buytaert, and Keith J. Beven
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3937–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The R programming language has become an important tool for many applications in hydrology. In this study, we provide an analysis of some of the R tools providing hydrological models. In total, two aspects are uniformly investigated, namely the conceptualisation of the models and the practicality of their implementation for end-users. These comparisons aim at easing the choice of R tools for users and at improving their usability for hydrology modelling to support more transferable research.
Yves Tramblay, Nathalie Rouché, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Gil Mahé, Jean-François Boyer, Ernest Amoussou, Ansoumana Bodian, Honoré Dacosta, Hamouda Dakhlaoui, Alain Dezetter, Denis Hughes, Lahoucine Hanich, Christophe Peugeot, Raphael Tshimanga, and Patrick Lachassagne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1547–1560, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1547-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1547-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset provides a set of hydrometric indices for about 1500 stations across Africa with daily discharge data. These indices represent mean flow characteristics and extremes (low flows and floods), allowing us to study the long-term evolution of hydrology in Africa and support the modeling efforts that aim at reducing the vulnerability of African countries to hydro-climatic variability.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Manon Cassagnole, Maria-Helena Ramos, Ioanna Zalachori, Guillaume Thirel, Rémy Garçon, Joël Gailhard, and Thomas Ouillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1033-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1033-2021, 2021
Louise Mimeau, Yves Tramblay, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Stefania Camici, and Pascal Finaud-Guyot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture is a key variable related to droughts and flood genesis, but little is known about the evolution of soil moisture under climate change. Here, using a simulation approach, we show that changes in soil moisture are driven by changes in precipitation intermittence rather than changes in precipitation intensity or in temperature.
Zachary L. Flamig, Humberto Vergara, and Jonathan J. Gourley
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4943–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4943-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4943-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) is used in the US National Weather Service for operational monitoring and short-term forecasting of flash floods. This article describes the hydrologic models supported by the framework and evaluates their accuracy by comparing simulations of streamflow from 2001 to 2011 at 4 366 observation sites with catchments less than 1000 km2. Overall, the uncalibrated models reasonably simulate flash flooding events.
El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Vincent Simonneaux, Simon Gascoin, and Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2591–2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In North Africa, the vulnerability to floods is high, and there is a need to improve the flood-forecasting systems. Remote-sensing and reanalysis data can palliate the lack of in situ measurements, in particular for soil moisture, which is a crucial parameter to consider when modeling floods. In this study we provide an evaluation of recent globally available soil moisture products for flood modeling in Morocco.
Julien Beaumet, Michel Déqué, Gerhard Krinner, Cécile Agosta, and Antoinette Alias
The Cryosphere, 13, 3023–3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid in order to reach an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over 1981–2010, we forced the model with observed and modelled sea surface conditions (SSCs). For the late 21st century, we use original and bias-corrected sea surface conditions from RCP8.5 climate projections. We assess the impact of using direct or bias-corrected SSCs for the evolution of Antarctic climate and surface mass balance.
Yves Tramblay, Louise Mimeau, Luc Neppel, Freddy Vinet, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4419–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4419-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study the flood trends have been assessed for a large sample of 171 basins located in southern France, which has a Mediterranean climate. Results show that, despite the increase in rainfall intensity previously observed in this area, there is no general increase in flood magnitude. Instead, a reduction in the annual number of floods is found, linked to a decrease in soil moisture caused by the increase in temperature observed in recent decades.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Louise J. Slater, Guillaume Thirel, Shaun Harrigan, Olivier Delaigue, Alexander Hurley, Abdou Khouakhi, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Claudia Vitolo, and Katie Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2939–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the benefits and advantages of R's usage in hydrology. We provide an overview of a typical hydrological workflow based on reproducible principles and packages for retrieval of hydro-meteorological data, spatial analysis, hydrological modelling, statistics, and the design of static and dynamic visualizations and documents. We discuss some of the challenges that arise when using R in hydrology as well as a roadmap for R’s future within the discipline.
Theano Iliopoulou, Cristina Aguilar, Berit Arheimer, María Bermúdez, Nejc Bezak, Andrea Ficchì, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Juraj Parajka, María José Polo, Guillaume Thirel, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 73–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the seasonal memory properties of a large sample of European rivers in terms of high and low flows. We compute seasonal correlations between peak and low flows and average flows in the previous seasons and explore the links with various physiographic and hydro-climatic catchment descriptors. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be employed to reduce uncertainty and improve probabilistic predictions of floods and droughts.
Léonard Santos, Guillaume Thirel, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4583–4591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Kling and Gupta efficiency (KGE) is a score used in hydrology to evaluate flow simulation compared to observations. In order to force the evaluation on the low flows, some authors used the log-transformed flow to calculate the KGE. In this technical note, we show that this transformation should be avoided because it produced numerical flaws that lead to difficulties in the score value interpretation.
Gaia Piazzi, Guillaume Thirel, Lorenzo Campo, and Simone Gabellani
The Cryosphere, 12, 2287–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2287-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2287-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The study focuses on the development of a multivariate particle filtering data assimilation scheme into a point-scale snow model. One of the main challenging issues concerns the impoverishment of the particle sample, which is addressed by jointly perturbing meteorological data and model parameters. An additional snow density model is introduced to reduce sensitivity to the availability of snow mass-related observations. In this configuration, the system reveals a satisfying performance.
Léonard Santos, Guillaume Thirel, and Charles Perrin
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1591–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1591-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1591-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Many rainfall–runoff models are based on stores. However, the differential equations that describe the stores' evolution are rarely presented in literature.
This represents an issue when the temporal resolution changes. In this work, we propose and evaluate a state-space version of a simple rainfall–runoff model within a robust resolution scheme. The results show that the proposed model performs equally well or slightly better than the original one and is independent of the temporal resolution.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Philippe Riboust, Nicolas Le Moine, Guillaume Thirel, and Pierre Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-539, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In hydrological modelling complex forcing data are often needed to reproduce the energy balance, mainly for simulating snowmelt and evapotranspiration processes. Incoming radiation data are not widely measured and are often derived from reanalyses. We provide a method for simulating these radiations in mountainous areas using only daily temperature range data and a digital elevation model. The method has been validated on 105 weather stations and a simple snow surface temperature model.
Tanja de Boer-Euser, Laurène Bouaziz, Jan De Niel, Claudia Brauer, Benjamin Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Benjamin Grelier, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Hubert Savenije, Guillaume Thirel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 423–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the rainfall–runoff models of eight international research groups were compared for a set of subcatchments of the Meuse basin to investigate the influence of certain model components on the modelled discharge. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics, clear differences could be observed for specific events. The differences during drier conditions could indeed be linked to differences in model structures.
Ke Zhang, Xianwu Xue, Yang Hong, Jonathan J. Gourley, Ning Lu, Zhanming Wan, Zhen Hong, and Rick Wooten
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 5035–5048, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5035-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-5035-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new approach to couple a distributed hydrological model, CREST, to a geotechnical landslide model, TRIGRS, to simulate both flood- and rainfall-triggered landslide hazards. By implementing more sophisticated and realistic representations of hydrological processes in the coupled model system, it shows better performance than the standalone landslide model in the case study. It highlights the important physical connection between rainfall, hydrological processes and slope stability.
Alban de Lavenne, Guillaume Thirel, Vazken Andréassian, Charles Perrin, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Proc. IAHS, 373, 87–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-87-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-87-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Developing modelling tools that help to understand the spatial distribution of water resources is a key issue for better management. Ideally, hydrological models which discretise catchment space into sub-catchments should offer better streamflow simulations than lumped models, along with spatially-relevant water resources management solutions. However we demonstrate that those model raise other issues related to the calibration strategy and to the identifiability of the parameters.
M.-P. Moine, S. Valcke, B. N. Lawrence, C. Pascoe, R. W. Ford, A. Alias, V. Balaji, P. Bentley, G. Devine, S. A. Callaghan, and E. Guilyardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 479–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-479-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-479-2014, 2014
Y. Tramblay, S. El Adlouni, and E. Servat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3235–3248, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013, 2013
P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas Y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, and T. Halenka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10027–10048, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10027-2013, 2013
Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3721–3739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3721-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3721-2013, 2013
V. Masson, P. Le Moigne, E. Martin, S. Faroux, A. Alias, R. Alkama, S. Belamari, A. Barbu, A. Boone, F. Bouyssel, P. Brousseau, E. Brun, J.-C. Calvet, D. Carrer, B. Decharme, C. Delire, S. Donier, K. Essaouini, A.-L. Gibelin, H. Giordani, F. Habets, M. Jidane, G. Kerdraon, E. Kourzeneva, M. Lafaysse, S. Lafont, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, A. Lemonsu, J.-F. Mahfouf, P. Marguinaud, M. Mokhtari, S. Morin, G. Pigeon, R. Salgado, Y. Seity, F. Taillefer, G. Tanguy, P. Tulet, B. Vincendon, V. Vionnet, and A. Voldoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 929–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-929-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Drought propagation in high-latitude catchments: insights from a 60-year analysis using standardized indices
Brief communication: Hydrological and hydraulic investigation of the extreme September 2024 flood on the Lamone River in Emilia-Romagna, Italy
Improving pluvial flood simulations with a multi-source digital elevation model super-resolution method
It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Recent large-inland-lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: processes, causes, and mechanisms
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Dynamics and impacts of monsoon-induced geological hazards: a 2022 flood study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany
Climate change impacts on floods in West Africa: New insight from two large-scale hydrological models
Mind the gap: misalignment between drought monitoring and community realities
Forecasting agricultural drought: the Australian Agriculture Drought Indicators
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona, USA, case study
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Groundwater recharge in Brandenburg is declining – but why?
Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA
Evaluating Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration flood risk using hybrid method of AutoML and AHP
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Hail events in Germany, rare or frequent natural hazards?
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
Claudia Teutschbein, Thomas Grabs, Markus Giese, Andrijana Todorović, and Roland Barthel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2541–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study is an exploration of how droughts develop and spread in high-latitude regions, focusing on the unique conditions found in areas like Scandinavia. It reveals that droughts affect soil, rivers, and groundwater differently, depending on such factors as land cover, water availability, and soil properties. The findings highlight the importance of tailored water management strategies to protect resources and ecosystems in these regions, especially as climate change continues to affect weather patterns.
Alessia Ferrari, Giulia Passadore, Renato Vacondio, Luca Carniello, Mattia Pivato, Elena Crestani, Francesco Carraro, Francesca Aureli, Sara Carta, Francesca Stumpo, and Paolo Mignosa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2473–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2473-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Between 17 and 20 September 2024, the Lamone River basin in northern Italy was hit by extreme precipitation. This study adopts the hydrological model Rhyme and the hydrodynamic model PARFLOOD to simulate the hydrological processes in the watershed and the levee-breach-induced inundation affecting the village of Traversara. The close match between the resulting flooded areas and the observed ones shows the capability of these numerical models to support the preparedness for at-risk populations.
Yue Zhu, Paolo Burlando, Puay Yok Tan, Christian Geiß, and Simone Fatichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2271–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2271-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2271-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting floods in regions with limited terrain data. By utilising a deep learning model, we developed a method that improves the resolution of digital elevation data by fusing low-resolution elevation data with high-resolution satellite imagery. This approach not only substantially enhances flood prediction accuracy, but also holds potential for broader applications in simulating natural hazards that require terrain information.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D (Rapid Inundation Model 2D), a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions that is ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out and structural changes challenge water resources management of the German capital Berlin. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater and surface water. Analysing the impacts of the 2018–2023 drought helps to address water-related challenges and implement effective measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5 m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced by urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 monsoon in Pakistan's Swat River basin brought record rainfall, exceeding averages by 7–8%, triggering catastrophic debris flows and floods. Key factors include extreme rainfall, deforestation, and steep slopes. Fieldwork, remote sensing, and simulations highlight land degradation's role in intensifying floods. Recommendations include reforestation, early warning systems, and land use reforms to protect communities and reduce future risks
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
West Africa is very vulnerable to rivers floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Andrew Schepen, Andrew Bolt, Dorine Bruget, John Carter, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Zvi Hochman, Neal Hughes, Chris Sharman, Peter Tan, and Peter Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important factors like soil conditions and market prices. We have developed an agricultural drought forecasting system to help drought analysts and policymakers more accurately identify communities that are enduring financial stress. By coupling climate forecasts and agricultural models, we can skillfully predict crop yields and farm profits for the coming seasons, which will support proactive responses.
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Post-wildfire flooding and debris are dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Till Francke and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Brandenburg is among the driest federal states in Germany. The low ground water recharge (GWR) is fundamental to both water supply and the support of natural ecosystems. In this study, we show that the decline of observed discharge and groundwater tables since 1980 can be explained by climate change in combination with an increasing leaf area index. Still, simulated GWR rates remain highly uncertain due to the uncertainty of precipitation trends.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Ann M. Youberg, Charles J. Abolt, and Adam L. Atchley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
After a fire, soil infiltration decreases, increasing flash flood risks, worsened by intense rainfall from climate change. Using data from a burned watershed in Arizona and a hydrological model, we examined postfire soil changes under medium and high emissions scenarios. Results showed soil infiltration increased sixfold from the first to third postfire year. Both scenarios suggest that rainfall intensification will extend high flood risks after fires by late century.
Yu Gao, Haipeng Lu, Yaru Zhang, Hengxu Jin, Shuai Wu, Yixuan Gao, and Shuliang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), where we determined flood risk assessment indices across different dimensions, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. We constructed a flood risk assessment model using AutoML and AHP to examine the spatial and temporal changes in flood risk in the region over the past 30 years (1990 to 2020), aiming to provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and resilience strategies in the YRDUA.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Tabea Wilke, Katharina Lengfeld, and Markus Schultze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hail in Germany is a natural hazard that is not in everyone's focus, even though it can cause great damage. In this study we focus on hail frequency, sizes and spatial distribution in Germany based on crowd sourcing and weather radar data. We compare different algorithms based on weather radar data with crowd sourced data and show the annual and diurnal cycle of hail in Germany.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Cited articles
Addor, N. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction for hydrological impact studies – beyond the daily perspective: Invited Commentary, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4823–4828, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10238, 2014. a
AERIS: Home Page, https://radarsmf.aeris-data.fr/ (last access: 21 March 2024), 2024. a
Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del Pozo, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cévennes region, Adv. Geosci., 29, 13–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011, 2011. a
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015. a
Amponsah, W., Ayral, P.-A., Boudevillain, B., Bouvier, C., Braud, I., Brunet, P., Delrieu, G., Didon-Lescot, J.-F., Gaume, E., Lebouc, L., Marchi, L., Marra, F., Morin, E., Nord, G., Payrastre, O., Zoccatelli, D., and Borga, M.: Integrated high-resolution dataset of high-intensity European and Mediterranean flash floods, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1783–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1783-2018, 2018. a
Ascott, M. J., Christelis, V., Lapworth, D. J., Macdonald, D. M. J., Tindimugaya, C., Iragena, A., Finney, D., Fitzpatrick, R., Marsham, J. H., and Rowell, D. P.: On the application of rainfall projections from a convection-permitting climate model to lumped catchment models, J. Hydrol., 617, 129097, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129097, 2023. a
Astagneau, P. C., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: When does a parsimonious model fail to simulate floods? Learning from the seasonality of model bias, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 66, 1288–1305, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1923720, 2021. a
Ban, N., Caillaud, C., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Sobolowski, S., Adinolfi, M., Ahrens, B., Alias, A., Anders, I., Bastin, S., Belšić, D., Berthou, S., Brisson, E., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S. C., Christensen, O. B., Fernández, J., Fita, L., Frisius, T., Gašparac, G., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Haugen, J. E., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lenderink, G., Leutwyler, D., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Mercogliano, P., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Raffa, M., Remedio, A. R., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Srnec, L., Steensen, B. M., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., de Vries, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zander, M. J.: The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 57, 275–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w, 2021. a, b
Bertola, M., Viglione, A., Vorogushyn, S., Lun, D., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Do small and large floods have the same drivers of change? A regional attribution analysis in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, 2021. a
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and vZivković, N.: Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods, Nature, 573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019. a
Boé, J., Terray, L., Habets, F., and Martin, E.: Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1643–1655, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1602, 2007. a
Boudou, M., Lang, M., Vinet, F., and Cœur, D.: Comparative hazard analysis of processes leading to remarkable flash floods (France, 1930–1999), J. Hydrol., 541, 533–552, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.032, 2016. a
Brunner, M. I., Swain, D. L., Wood, R. R., Willkofer, F., Done, J. M., Gilleland, E., and Ludwig, R.: An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes, Commun. Earth Environment, 2, 173, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00248-x, 2021. a, b
Caillaud, C., Somot, S., Alias, A., Bernard-Bouissières, I., Fumière, Q., Laurantin, O., Seity, Y., and Ducrocq, V.: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model, Clim. Dynam., 56, 1717–1752, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Caldas-Alvarez, A., Feldmann, H., Lucio-Eceiza, E., and Pinto, J. G.: Convection-parameterized and convection-permitting modelling of heavy precipitation in decadal simulations of the greater Alpine region with COSMO-CLM, Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023. a
Caumont, O., Mandement, M., Bouttier, F., Eeckman, J., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Lovat, A., Nuissier, O., and Laurantin, O.: The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021. a
Chauveau, M., Chazot, S., Perrin, C., Bourgin, P.-Y., Sauquet, E., Vidal, J.-P., Rouchy, N., Martin, E., David, J., Norotte, T., Maugis, P., and De Lacaze, X.: Quels impacts des changements climatiques sur les eaux de surface en France à l'horizon 2070?, La Houille Blanche, 99, 5–15, https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2013027, 2013. a
Clark, R. A., Flamig, Z. L., Vergara, H., Hong, Y., Gourley, J. J., Mandl, D. J., Frye, S., Handy, M., and Patterson, M.: Hydrological Modeling and Capacity Building in the Republic of Namibia, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 1697–1715, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00130.1, 2017. a
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, N., Bastin, S., Belda, M., Belusic, D., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Cardoso, R. M., Davolio, S., Dobler, A., Fernandez, J., Fita, L., Fumiere, Q., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Heinzeller, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jacob, D., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E., Khodayar, S., Kunstmann, H., Knist, S., Lavín-Gullón, A., Lind, P., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Marelle, L., van Meijgaard, E., Milovac, J., Myhre, G., Panitz, H.-J., Piazza, M., Raffa, M., Raub, T., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Sieck, K., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., de Vries, H., and Warrach-Sagi, K.: A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean, Clim. Dynam., 55, 3–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8, 2020. a
Coron, L., Thirel, G., Delaigue, O., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.: The suite of lumped GR hydrological models in an R package, Environ. Model. Softw., 94, 166–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.05.002, 2017. a
Coron, L., Delaigue, O., Thirel, G., Dorchies, D., Perrin, C., and Michel, C.: airGR: Suite of GR Hydrological Models for Precipitation-Runoff Modelling, R package version 1.7.4, HYCAR [code], https://doi.org/10.15454/EX11NA, 2020. a, b
Cunnane, C.: A particular comparison of annual maxima and partial duration series methods of flood frequency prediction, J. Hydrol., 18, 257–271, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(73)90051-6, 1973. a
Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.: Flood hazard in Europe in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D16108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011523, 2009. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Delrieu, G., Nicol, J., Yates, E., Kirstetter, P.-E., Creutin, J.-D., Anquetin, S., Obled, C., Saulnier, G.-M., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Payrastre, O., Andrieu, H., Ayral, P.-A., Bouvier, C., Neppel, L., Livet, M., Lang, M., du Châtelet, J. P., Walpersdorf, A., and Wobrock, W.: The Catastrophic Flash-Flood Event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard Region, France: A First Case Study for the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 34–52, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-400.1, 2005. a, b, c
Ficchì, A., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.: Hydrological modelling at multiple sub-daily time steps: Model improvement via flux-matching, J. Hydrol., 575, 1308–1327, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.084, 2019. a, b, c
Flamig, Z. L., Vergara, H., and Gourley, J. J.: The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) v1.2: description and case study, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4943–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4943-2020, 2020. a, b, c
FLASH: 20240321/1300, http://ef5.ou.edu/ (last access: 21 March 2024), 2024. a
Fumière, Q., Déqué, M., Nuissier, O., Somot, S., Alias, A., Caillaud, C., Laurantin, O., and Seity, Y.: Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model, Clim. Dynam., 55, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8, 2020. a, b
Giorgi, F.: Thirty Years of Regional Climate Modeling: Where Are We and Where Are We Going next?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 5696–5723, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030094, 2019. a, b, c
Giorgi, F. and Gutowski, W. J.: Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 40, 467–490, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217, 2015. a
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009. a
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration, J. Irrig. Drain. Div., 108, 225–230, https://doi.org/10.1061/JRCEA4.0001390, 1982. a
Huang, S., Krysanova, V., and Hattermann, F. F.: Does bias correction increase reliability of flood projections under climate change? A case study of large rivers in Germany, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3780–3800, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3945, 2014. a
HydroPortail: Accédez gratuitement aux données publiques quantitatives relatives à l'écoulement des cours d'eau, https://hydro.eaufrance.fr/ (last access: 21 March 2024), 2024. a
Kay, A.: Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data, Climatic Change, 173, 11, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03405-z, 2022. a
Kay, A. L., Reynard, N. S., and Jones, R. G.: RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. I. Method and validation, J. Hydrol., 318, 151–162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.012, 2006. a
Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Kendon, E. J., and Jones, R. G.: Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: baseline performance and future flood changes, Climatic Change, 133, 193–208, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1455-6, 2015. a
Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., Senior, C. A., and Roberts, M. J.: Realism of Rainfall in a Very High-Resolution Regional Climate Model, J. Climate, 25, 5791–5806, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00562.1, 2012. a
Khodayar, S., Fosser, G., Berthou, S., Davolio, S., Drobinski, P., Ducrocq, V., Ferretti, R., Nuret, M., Pichelli, E., Richard, E., and Bock, O.: A seamless weather–climate multi-model intercomparison on the representation of a high impact weather event in the western Mediterranean: HyMeX IOP12, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2700, 2016. a
Khodayar, S., Kalthoff, N., and Kottmeier, C.: Atmospheric conditions associated with heavy precipitation events in comparison to seasonal means in the western mediterranean region, Clim. Dynam., 51, 951–967, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3058-y, 2018. a
Köplin, N., Schädler, B., Viviroli, D., and Weingartner, R.: Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change, Hydrol. Process., 28, 2567–2578, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9757, 2014. a
Lang, M., Ouarda, T., and Bobée, B.: Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling, J. Hydrol., 225, 103–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00167-5, 1999. a, b
Laurantin, O., Tabary, P., Dupuy, P., L'Henaff, G., Merlier, C., and Soubeyroux, J.-M.: A 10-year (1997–2006) reanalysis of quantitative precipitation estimation over France, in: vol. 1000, 7th European conference on radar in meteorology and hydrology, http://www.meteo.fr/cic/meetings/2012/ERAD/extended_abs/QPE_199_ext_abs.pdf (last access: 14 November 2023), 2012. a, b
Lemaitre-Basset, T., Collet, L., Thirel, G., Parajka, J., Evin, G., and Hingray, B.: Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis on hydrological extremes in a French Mediterranean catchment, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 66, 888–903, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1895437, 2021. a, b, c
Li, Z., Chen, M., Gao, S., Luo, X., Gourley, J. J., Kirstetter, P., Yang, T., Kolar, R., McGovern, A., Wen, Y., Rao, B., Yami, T., and Hong, Y.: CREST-iMAP v1.0: A fully coupled hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework dedicated to flood inundation mapping and prediction, Environ. Model. Softw., 141, 105051, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105051, 2021. a
Li, Z., Gao, S., Chen, M., Gourley, J. J., and Hong, Y.: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of US Floods: Current Status and Forecast Under a Future Warmer Climate, Earth's Future, 10, e2022EF002700, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002700, 2022a. a, b, c
Li, Z., Gao, S., Chen, M., Gourley, J. J., Liu, C., Prein, A. F., and Hong, Y.: The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 86, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00409-6, 2022b. a, b, c, d
Lobligeois, F.: Mieux connaitre la distribution spatiale des pluies améliore-t-il la modélisation des crues? Diagnostic sur 181 bassins versants français, p. 313, https://pastel.hal.science/tel-01134990 (last access: 21 March 2024), 2014. a
Lucas-Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., and Caillaud, C.: Convection-permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps, WIREs Clim. Change, 12, e731, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.731, 2021. a, b
Lucas-Picher, P., Brisson, E., Caillaud, C., Alias, A., Nabat, P., Lemonsu, A., Poncet, N., Cortés Hernandez, V. E., Michau, Y., Doury, A., Monteiro, D., and Somot, S.: Evaluation of the convection-permitting regional climate model CNRM-AROME41t1 over Northwestern Europe, Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06637-y, in press, 2023. a, b, c, d, e
Maraun, D.: Bias Correcting Climate Change Simulations – a Critical Review, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 2, 211–220, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x, 2016. a
Massari, C., Pellet, Vi., Tramblay, Y., Crow, W. T., Gründemann, G. J., Hascoetf, T., Penna, D., Modanesi, S., Brocca, L., Camici, S., and Marra, F.: On the relation between antecedent basin conditions and runoff coefficient for European floods, J. Hydrol., 625, 130012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130012, 2023. a
Maurer, E. P., Brekke, L., Pruitt, T., and Duffy, P. B.: Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies, Eos Trans. Am. Geophys.Union, 88, 504–504, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO470006, 2007. a
Mendoza, P. A., Mizukami, N., Ikeda, K., Clark, M. P., Gutmann, E. D., Arnold, J. R., Brekke, L. D., and Rajagopalan, B.: Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes, J. Hydrol., 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.010, 2016. a
Michelangeli, P.-A., Vrac, M., and Loukos, H.: Probabilistic downscaling approaches: Application to wind cumulative distribution functions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038401, 2009. a, b
Monteiro, Di., Caillaud, C., Samacoïts, R., Lafaysse, M., and Morin, S.: Potential and limitations of convection‐permitting CNRM-AROME climate modelling in the French Alps, Int. J. Climatol., 42, 7162–7185, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7637, 2022. a
Moussa, R.: When monstrosity can be beautiful while normality can be ugly: assessing the performance of event-based flood models, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 1074–1084, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.505893, 2010. a
Nabat, P., Somot, S., Cassou, C., Mallet, M., Michou, M., Bouniol, D., Decharme, B., Drugé, T., Roehrig, R., and Saint-Martin, D.: Modulation of radiative aerosols effects by atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Mediterranean region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8315–8349, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8315-2020, 2020. a, b
Nash, J. and Sutcliffe, J.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970. a
Neppel, L., Renard, B., Lang, M., Ayral, P.-A., Coeur, D., Gaume, E., Jacob, N., Payrastre, O., Pobanz, K., and Vinet, F.: Flood frequency analysis using historical data: accounting for random and systematic errors, Hydrolog. Scie. J. – Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 55, 192–208, 2010. a
Nuissier, O., Joly, B., Joly, A., Ducrocq, V., and Arbogast, P.: A statistical downscaling to identify the large-scale circulation patterns associated with heavy precipitation events over southern France, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soci., 137, 1812–1827, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.866,, 2011. a
Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., Anctil, F., and Loumagne, C.: Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped rainfall–runoff model?, J. Hydrol., 303, 290–306, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.026, 2005. a
Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Mishra, A. N., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Truhetz, H., and Vergara-Temprado, J.: The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3581–3602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4, 2021. a, b
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung, R.: A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015. a
Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Keuler, K., Goergen, K., Teichmann, C., Fox Maule, C., van Meijgaard, E., Déqué, M., Nikulin, G., Vautard, R., Colette, A., Kjellström, E., and Jacob, D.: Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?, Clim. Dynam., 46, 383–412, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2589-y, 2016. a
Quintero, F., Villarini, G., Prein, A. F., Krajewski, W. F., and Zhang, W.: On the Role of Atmospheric Simulations Horizontal Grid Spacing for Flood Modeling, ResearchSquare, https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-821389/v1 (last access: 7 November 2021), 2021. a
Reszler, C., Switanek, M. B., and Truhetz, H.: Convection-permitting regional climate simulations for representing floods in small- and medium-sized catchments in the Eastern Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2653–2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2653-2018, 2018. a, b
Ribes, A., Thao, S., Vautard, R., Dubuisson, B., Somot, S., Colin, J., Planton, S., and Soubeyroux, J.-M.: Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean, Clim. Dynam., 52, 1095–1114, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4179-2, 2019. a
Ricard, D., Ducrocq, V., and Auger, L.: A Climatology of the Mesoscale Environment Associated with Heavily Precipitating Events over a Northwestern Mediterranean Area, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 51, 468–488, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-017.1, 2012. a
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., Dosio, A., and Bavera, D.: Improving pan-European hydrological simulation of extreme events through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2599–2620, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2599-2011, 2011. a
Roux, H., Labat, D., Garambois, P.-A., Maubourguet, M.-M., Chorda, J., and Dartus, D.: A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2567–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2567-2011, 2011. a
Rummukainen, M.: State-of-the-art with regional climate models, WIREs Clim. Change, 1, 82–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.8, 2010. a
Sharma, A., Wasko, C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?, Water Resour. Res., 54, 8545–8551, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023749, 2018. a
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Regional Climate Models for Hydrological Impact Studies at the Catchment Scale: A Review of Recent Modeling Strategies, Geogr. Compass, 4, 834–860, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00357.x, 2010. a
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456-457, 12–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052, 2012. a
Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Marx, A., Pan, M., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Zink, M.: Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 014003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35, 2018. a
Toukourou, M., Johannet, A., Dreyfus, G., and Ayral, P.-A.: Rainfall-runoff modeling of flash floods in the absence of rainfall forecasts: the case of “Cévenol flash floods”, Appl. Intel., 35, 178–189, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-010-0210-y, 2011. a
Tramblay, Y. and Somot, S.: Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean, Climatic Change, 151, 289–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5, 2018. a
Tramblay, Y., Mimeau, L., Neppel, L., Vinet, F., and Sauquet, E.: Detection and attribution of flood trends in Mediterranean basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4419–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4419-2019, 2019. a
Tramblay, Y., Arnaud, P., Artigue, G., Lang, M., Paquet, E., Neppel, L., and Sauquet, E.: Changes in Mediterranean flood processes and seasonality, Hydrol. Earh Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023, a, b
Vannier, O., Braud, I., and Anquetin, S.: Regional estimation of catchment-scale soil properties by means of streamflow recession analysis for use in distributed hydrological models, Hydrol. Process., 28, 6276–6291, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10101, 2014. a
Vautard, R., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Bülow, K., Coppola, E., Corre, L., van Meijgaard, E., Nogherotto, R., Sandstad, M., Schwingshackl, C., Somot, S., Aalbers, E., Christensen, O. B., Ciarlo, J. M., Demory, M.-E., Giorgi, F., Jacob, D., Jones, R. G., Keuler, K., Kjellström, E., Lenderink, G., Levavasseur, G., Nikulin, G., Sillmann, J., Solidoro, C., Sørland, S. L., Steger, C., Teichmann, C., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Evaluation of the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model Ensemble, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2019JD032344, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032344, 2021. a
Vinet, F.: Geographical analysis of damage due to flash floods in southern France: The cases of 12–13 November 1999 and 8–9 September 2002, Appl. Geogr., 28, 323–336, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.02.007, 2008. a
Vinet, F., Cherel, J.-P., Weiss, K., Lewandowski, M., and Boissier, L.: Flood related mortality in the French Mediterranean region (1980–2020), Hydrosci. J., 108, 2097022, https://doi.org/10.1080/27678490.2022.2097022, 2022. a
Voldoire, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Salas y Mélia, D., Decharme, B., Cassou, C., Sénési, S., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., Déqué, M., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Fernandez, E., Madec, G., Maisonnave, E., Moine, M.-P., Planton, S., Saint-Martin, D., Szopa, S., Tyteca, S., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Braun, A., Coquart, L., and Chauvin, F.: The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2091–2121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y, 2013. a
Vrac, M., Drobinski, P., Merlo, A., Herrmann, M., Lavaysse, C., Li, L., and Somot, S.: Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2769–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2769-2012, 2012. a
Vrac, M., Noël, T., and Vautard, R.: Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because occurrences matter, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 5237–5258, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024511, 2016. a
Vrugt, J. A., ter Braak, C. J., Diks, C. G., Robinson, B. A., Hyman, J. M., and Higdon, D.: Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation by Differential Evolution with Self-Adaptive Randomized Subspace Sampling, Int. J. Nonlin. Sci. Numer. Simul., 10, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.1515/IJNSNS.2009.10.3.273, 2009. a
Wang, J., Hong, Y., Li, L., Gourley, J. J., Khan, S. I., Yilmaz, K. K., Adler, R. F., Policelli, F. S., Habib, S., Irwn, D., Limaye, A. S., Korme, T., and Okello, L.: The coupled routing and excess storage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 56, 84–98, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.543087, 2011. a, b
Wasko, C. and Guo, D.: Understanding event runoff coefficient variability across Australia using the hydroEvents R package, Hydrol. Process., 36, e14563, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14563, 2022. a
Wasko, C., Guo, D., Ho, M., Nathan, R., and Vogel, E.: Diverging projections for flood and rainfall frequency curves, J. Hydrol., 620, 129403, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129403, 2023. a, b
Zittis, G., Bruggeman, A., and Lelieveld, J.: Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean, Weather Clim. Extrem., 34, 100380, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100380, 2021. a
Executive editor
This paper brings forward a new use for recent climate models, allowing the representation of convection at a fine spatial scale for the analysis of flash floods in a Mediterranean context. Results indicate a better performance to reproduce floods compared to the previous generation of climate models. This study is the first one that obtains future flood scenarios from the input of a hydrological model whose input is the output of Convection-Permitting regional climate Models over the Mediterranean. There are also hardly any studies on the impact of climate change on floods in the Mediterranean region, and this work provides that information, based on a rigorous hydrometeorological study.
This paper brings forward a new use for recent climate models, allowing the representation of...
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint