Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
03 Apr 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 03 Apr 2024

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?

Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias

Related authors

Lack of robustness of hydrological models: A large-sample diagnosis and an attempt to identify the hydrological and climatic drivers
Léonard Santos, Vazken Andréassian, Torben O. Sonnenborg, Göran Lindström, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, Lila Collet, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-80, 2024
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Multi-model approach in a variable spatial framework for streamflow simulation
Cyril Thébault, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian, Guillaume Thirel, Sébastien Legrand, and Olivier Delaigue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1539–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Improvements of the land surface configuration to better simulate seasonal snow cover in the European Alps with the CNRM-AROME (cycle 46) convection-permitting regional climate model
Diego Monteiro, Cécile Caillaud, Matthieu Lafaysse, Adrien Napoly, Mathieu Fructus, Antoinette Alias, and Samuel Morin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-249,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-249, 2024
Short summary
Spatial spin-up of precipitation in limited-area convection-permitting simulations over North America using the CRCM6/GEM5.0 model
François Roberge, Alejandro Di Luca, René Laprise, Philippe Lucas-Picher, and Julie Thériault
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1497–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Addor, N. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction for hydrological impact studies – beyond the daily perspective: Invited Commentary, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4823–4828, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10238, 2014. a
AERIS: Home Page, https://radarsmf.aeris-data.fr/ (last access: 21 March 2024), 2024. a
Alfieri, L., Smith, P. J., Thielen-del Pozo, J., and Beven, K. J.: A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cévennes region, Adv. Geosci., 29, 13–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011, 2011. a
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015. a
Amponsah, W., Ayral, P.-A., Boudevillain, B., Bouvier, C., Braud, I., Brunet, P., Delrieu, G., Didon-Lescot, J.-F., Gaume, E., Lebouc, L., Marchi, L., Marra, F., Morin, E., Nord, G., Payrastre, O., Zoccatelli, D., and Borga, M.: Integrated high-resolution dataset of high-intensity European and Mediterranean flash floods, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1783–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1783-2018, 2018. a
Download
Executive editor
This paper brings forward a new use for recent climate models, allowing the representation of convection at a fine spatial scale for the analysis of flash floods in a Mediterranean context. Results indicate a better performance to reproduce floods compared to the previous generation of climate models. This study is the first one that obtains future flood scenarios from the input of a hydrological model whose input is the output of Convection-Permitting regional climate Models over the Mediterranean. There are also hardly any studies on the impact of climate change on floods in the Mediterranean region, and this work provides that information, based on a rigorous hydrometeorological study.
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint