Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Nils Poncet
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Philippe Lucas-Picher
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Département Des Sciences de La Terre Et de L'atmosphère, Université du Québec À Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
Yves Tramblay
Espace-Dev, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Montpellier, France
Guillaume Thirel
Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, HYCAR Research Unit, Antony, France
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Humberto Vergara
Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
Jonathan Gourley
Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
Antoinette Alias
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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Cited
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Orographic and land-sea contrast effects in convection-permitting simulations of extreme sub-daily precipitation P. Mazzoglio et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100798
- Evolution of flood generating processes under climate change in France Y. Tramblay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-7023-2025
- Improving the consistency of hydrologic event identification M. Mohammadpour Khoie et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106521
- Projections of extreme rainfall and floods in Mediterranean basins from an ensemble of convection-permitting models N. Poncet et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03983-8
- Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China L. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113698
- Western Mediterranean flash floods through the Lens of Alcanar (NE Iberian Peninsula): Meteorological drivers and trends M. Llasat et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108266
- Comparing hourly climate change projections for hydrology in a Mediterranean meso-scale catchment N. Hachgenei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103491
- Scale-dependent biases in Alpine sub-daily areal precipitation extremes: added value of convection permitting models R. Akbary et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4117-2026
- Severe Impacts on Water Resources Projected for the Mediterranean Basin J. Eekhout et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.70012
- Do convection-permitting regional climate models have added value for hydroclimatic simulations? A test case over small and medium-sized catchments in Germany O. Wagner et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3597-2026
- Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database M. Llasat et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024
- Dynamically downscaled 1-km climate dataset for the Balearic Islands under present and future conditions Y. Bahuet-Bourret et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-026-07301-4
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Orographic and land-sea contrast effects in convection-permitting simulations of extreme sub-daily precipitation P. Mazzoglio et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100798
- Evolution of flood generating processes under climate change in France Y. Tramblay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-7023-2025
- Improving the consistency of hydrologic event identification M. Mohammadpour Khoie et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106521
- Projections of extreme rainfall and floods in Mediterranean basins from an ensemble of convection-permitting models N. Poncet et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03983-8
- Exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics and triggering factors of flash flood in China L. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113698
- Western Mediterranean flash floods through the Lens of Alcanar (NE Iberian Peninsula): Meteorological drivers and trends M. Llasat et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108266
- Comparing hourly climate change projections for hydrology in a Mediterranean meso-scale catchment N. Hachgenei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103491
- Scale-dependent biases in Alpine sub-daily areal precipitation extremes: added value of convection permitting models R. Akbary et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4117-2026
- Severe Impacts on Water Resources Projected for the Mediterranean Basin J. Eekhout et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.70012
- Do convection-permitting regional climate models have added value for hydroclimatic simulations? A test case over small and medium-sized catchments in Germany O. Wagner et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3597-2026
- Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database M. Llasat et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024
- Dynamically downscaled 1-km climate dataset for the Balearic Islands under present and future conditions Y. Bahuet-Bourret et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-026-07301-4
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Jul 2026
Editorial statement
This paper brings forward a new use for recent climate models, allowing the representation of convection at a fine spatial scale for the analysis of flash floods in a Mediterranean context. Results indicate a better performance to reproduce floods compared to the previous generation of climate models. This study is the first one that obtains future flood scenarios from the input of a hydrological model whose input is the output of Convection-Permitting regional climate Models over the Mediterranean. There are also hardly any studies on the impact of climate change on floods in the Mediterranean region, and this work provides that information, based on a rigorous hydrometeorological study.
This paper brings forward a new use for recent climate models, allowing the representation of...
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate...
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