Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Olivia Martius
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Philippe Naveau
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, ESTIMR, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Alexandre Tuel
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact‐Based Skill Evaluation of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts Z. Nikraftar et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004936
- Long and short-term perspectives on space–time landslide modelling T. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2025.104694
- Evaluation of agro-hydrological subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts for tactical decision making in crop irrigation E. Fallah-Mehdipour & J. Dietrich https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110315
- Evaluation of a BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 Model for the Monthly Prediction of Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Z. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070830
- Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Irrigation Need Based on Relative Soil-Moisture-Deficit Persistence Using Copula Models Z. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16212421
- Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4733
- Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet J. Xiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01076-y
- Proper scoring rules for multivariate probabilistic forecasts based on aggregation and transformation R. Pic et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-23-2025
- Water vapor and energy sources of persistent extreme heavy rainfall related to typhoon over the Huaihe River basin J. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104108
- Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives S. Materia et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.914
- Ensemble post-processing of sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts based on a novel probabilistic double machine learning method S. Zhan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133484
- Balancing accuracy versus precision: Enhancing the usability of sub-seasonal forecasts E. Dunn-Sigouin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594
- Multi-Source Remote Sensing for Dynamic Landslide Susceptibility Assessment: From Static Mapping to Spatiotemporal Inference and Updating H. Deng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18132153
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact‐Based Skill Evaluation of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts Z. Nikraftar et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004936
- Long and short-term perspectives on space–time landslide modelling T. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2025.104694
- Evaluation of agro-hydrological subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts for tactical decision making in crop irrigation E. Fallah-Mehdipour & J. Dietrich https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110315
- Evaluation of a BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 Model for the Monthly Prediction of Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin Z. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070830
- Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Irrigation Need Based on Relative Soil-Moisture-Deficit Persistence Using Copula Models Z. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16212421
- Improving subseasonal forecast of precipitation in Europe by combining a stochastic weather generator with dynamical models M. Krouma et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4733
- Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet J. Xiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01076-y
- Proper scoring rules for multivariate probabilistic forecasts based on aggregation and transformation R. Pic et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-23-2025
- Water vapor and energy sources of persistent extreme heavy rainfall related to typhoon over the Huaihe River basin J. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104108
- Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives S. Materia et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.914
- Ensemble post-processing of sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts based on a novel probabilistic double machine learning method S. Zhan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133484
- Balancing accuracy versus precision: Enhancing the usability of sub-seasonal forecasts E. Dunn-Sigouin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594
- Multi-Source Remote Sensing for Dynamic Landslide Susceptibility Assessment: From Static Mapping to Spatiotemporal Inference and Updating H. Deng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18132153
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 12 Nov 2026
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and...
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