Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
Research article
 | 
25 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 25 Aug 2023

Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe

Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel

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Latest update: 09 May 2024
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Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
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