Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
Research article
 | 
25 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 25 Aug 2023

Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe

Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel

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Latest update: 12 Nov 2024
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Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
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