Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023
Research article
 | 
25 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 25 Aug 2023

Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe

Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel

Related authors

Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
Short summary
Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Impact of the dry-day definition on Mediterranean extreme dry-spell analysis
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Allen, S., Evans, G. R., Buchanan, P., and Kwasniok, F.: Incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation into the post-processing of MOGREPS-G wind speed forecasts, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 1403–1418, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3983, 2021. a, b
Brier, G. W.: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Mon. Weather Rev., 78, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2, 1950. a, b, c, d
Büeler, D., Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Quinting, J. F., and Grams, C. M.: Year‐round sub‐seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic–European weather regimes, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 4283–4309, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4178, 2021. a
Casanueva, A., Rodríguez-Puebla, C., Frías, M. D., and González-Reviriego, N.: Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 709–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014, 2014. a
CDO: Regridding with CDO, Running the Remapping (Conservative Method), https://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wiki/index.php?title=Regridding_with_CDO#Running_the_Remapping_.28Conservative_Method.29 (last access: 19 May 2022), 2018. a
Download
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint