Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
Brief communication
 | 
11 Jul 2023
Brief communication |  | 11 Jul 2023

Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes

Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori

Related authors

The impacts of climate change on tropical-to-extratropical transitions in the North-Atlantic basin
Aude Garin, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Mathieu Boudreault, and Roberto Ingrosso
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3435,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3435, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

American Meteorological Society (AMS): Glossary of Meteorology, AMS, https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Tornado (last access: 22 August 2022), 2020. a
Ashley, W. S.: Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Tornado Fatalities in the United States: 1880–2005, Weather Forecast., 22, 1214–1228, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2007004.1, 2007. a
Bagaglini, L., Ingrosso, R., and Miglietta, M. M.: Synoptic patterns and mesoscale precursors of Italian tornadoes, Atmos. Res., 253, 105503, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105503, 2021. a
Brooks, H. E.: Severe thunderstorms and climate change, Atmos. Res., 123, 129–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002, 2013. a
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., and Craven, J. P.: The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 73–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00045-0, 2003. a
Download
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint