Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
11 Jul 2023
Brief communication |
| 11 Jul 2023
| 11 Jul 2023
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Roberto Ingrosso
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montréal, 201 av. duPresident Kennedy, Montréal, H3C 3P8, Canada
Piero Lionello
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche ed Ambientali, Università del Salento, via per Monteroni 165, Lecce, 73100, Italy
Mario Marcello Miglietta
ISAC-CNR, Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del
Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, corso Stati Uniti 4, Padua, 35127, Italy
Gianfausto Salvadori
Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università del Salento, Provinciale Lecce-Arnesano, P.O. Box 193, Lecce, 73100, Italy
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Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale...
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