Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
Brief communication
 | 
11 Jul 2023
Brief communication |  | 11 Jul 2023

Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes

Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori

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Cited articles

American Meteorological Society (AMS): Glossary of Meteorology, AMS, https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Tornado (last access: 22 August 2022), 2020. a
Ashley, W. S.: Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Tornado Fatalities in the United States: 1880–2005, Weather Forecast., 22, 1214–1228, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2007004.1, 2007. a
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Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., and Craven, J. P.: The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 73–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00045-0, 2003. a
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Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
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