Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
Brief communication
 | 
11 Jul 2023
Brief communication |  | 11 Jul 2023

Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes

Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori

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Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
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