Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 06 Jul 2023
| 06 Jul 2023
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Wallingford, United
Kingdom
Michael Eastman
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Wallingford, United
Kingdom
Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Eugene Magee
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Wallingford, United
Kingdom
Lucy J. Barker
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Wallingford, United
Kingdom
Thomas Chitson
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Wallingford, United
Kingdom
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit
Department of Civil Engineering, King Mongkut's University of
Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand
Daniel Goodwin
School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom
Jamie Hannaford
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Wallingford, United
Kingdom
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth
University, Maynooth, Ireland
Ian Holman
School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom
Liwa Pardthaisong
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai
University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
Simon Parry
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Wallingford, United
Kingdom
Dolores Rey Vicario
School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield, United Kingdom
Supattra Visessri
Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering,
Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
Disaster and Risk Management Information Systems Research Unit,
Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
Related authors
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Simon Parry, Katie A. Smith, Maliko Tanguy, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4583–4602, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand historic droughts in order to plan and prepare for possible future events. In this study we use the standardised streamflow index for 1891–2015 to systematically identify, characterise and rank hydrological drought events for 108 near-natural UK catchments. Results show when and where the most severe events occurred and describe events of the early 20th century, providing catchment-scale detail important for both science and planning applications of the future.
Katie A. Smith, Lucy J. Barker, Maliko Tanguy, Simon Parry, Shaun Harrigan, Tim P. Legg, Christel Prudhomme, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the multi-objective calibration approach used to create a consistent dataset of reconstructed daily river flow data for 303 catchments in the UK over 1891–2015. The modelled data perform well when compared to observations, including in the timing and the classification of drought events. This method and data will allow for long-term studies of flow trends and past extreme events that have not been previously possible, enabling water managers to better plan for the future.
Maliko Tanguy, Christel Prudhomme, Katie Smith, and Jamie Hannaford
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 951–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is necessary input data for most hydrological models, used to simulate river flows. To reconstruct PET prior to the 1960s, simplified methods are needed because of lack of climate data required for complex methods. We found that the McGuinness–Bordne PET equation, which only needs temperature as input data, works best for the UK provided it is calibrated for local conditions. This method was used to produce a 5 km gridded PET dataset for the UK for 1891–2015.
Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
V. D. J. Keller, M. Tanguy, I. Prosdocimi, J. A. Terry, O. Hitt, S. J. Cole, M. Fry, D. G. Morris, and H. Dixon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 143–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-143-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-143-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The CEH – Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH–GEAR) dataset contains 1 km gridded estimates of daily and monthly rainfall for Great Britain and Northern Ireland (plus approximately 3000 km2 in the Republic of Ireland) from 1890 to 2012. The rainfall estimates are derived from the Met Office national database of observed precipitation, using a natural neighbour interpolation methodology which includes a normalisation step based on average annual rainfall.
Alison Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-51, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range; Summer 2022 ~28 % lower and Autumn 2023 ~42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could improve water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-289, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change can often seem rather remote especially when the discussion is about global averages which appears to have little relevance to local experiences. But, those global changes are already affecting people, even if they don’t fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Jamie Hannaford, Jonathan D. Mackay, Matthew Ascott, Victoria A. Bell, Thomas Chitson, Steven Cole, Christian Counsell, Mason Durant, Christopher R. Jackson, Alison L. Kay, Rosanna A. Lane, Majdi Mansour, Robert Moore, Simon Parry, Alison C. Rudd, Michael Simpson, Katie Facer-Childs, Stephen Turner, John R. Wallbank, Steven Wells, and Amy Wilcox
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2391–2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The eFLaG dataset is a nationally consistent set of projections of future climate change impacts on hydrology. eFLaG uses the latest available UK climate projections (UKCP18) run through a series of computer simulation models which enable us to produce future projections of river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge. These simulations are designed for use by water resource planners and managers but could also be used for a wide range of other purposes.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
William Rust, John P. Bloomfield, Mark Cuthbert, Ron Corstanje, and Ian Holman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2449–2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK. Specifically, multi-year cycles in the NAO are shown to influence the frequency of droughts and this influence changes considerably over time. We show that the influence of these varying controls is similar to the projected effects of climate change on water resources. We also show that these time-varying behaviours have important implications for water resource forecasts used for drought planning.
William Rust, Mark Cuthbert, John Bloomfield, Ron Corstanje, Nicholas Howden, and Ian Holman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2223–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2223-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we find evidence for the cyclical behaviour (on a 7-year basis) in UK streamflow records that match the main cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, we find that the strength of these 7-year cycles in streamflow is dependent on proportional contributions from groundwater and the response times of the underlying groundwater systems. This may allow for improvements to water management practices through better understanding of long-term streamflow behaviour.
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The variety of human and natural processes in the land system can be modelled in many different ways. However, little is known about how and why basic model assumptions affect model results. We compared two models that represent land use in completely distinct ways and found several results that differed greatly. We identify the main assumptions that caused these differences and therefore key issues that need to be addressed for more robust model development.
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, and Miaomiao Ma
Proc. IAHS, 383, 273–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-273-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-273-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Drought monitoring and early warning are critical aspects of drought preparedness and can help mitigate impacts on society and the environment. We reviewed academic literature in England and Chinese on the topic of drought monitoring and early warning in China. The number of papers on this topic has increased substantially but the most recent advances have not been operationalised. We identify the methods that can be translated from the experimental to national, operational systems.
Miaomiao Ma, Juan Lv, Zhicheng Su, Jamie Hannaford, Hongquan Sun, Yanping Qu, Zikang Xing, Lucy Barker, and Yaxu Wang
Proc. IAHS, 383, 267–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-267-2020, 2020
Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Erik Tijdeman, Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 291–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Weerayuth Pratoomchai, Chatchapol Khemngoen, and Patchanok Srivihok
Proc. IAHS, 383, 355–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study focused on a climate change impact assessment on water resources in the Klong Yai River basin in Thailand using multiple Global Climate Models (GCMs). According to the projections, maximum surface air temperature is projected to increase around 0.3–1.4°. Precipitation in the near future (2017–2026 and 2027–2036) shows an increasing trend. The SWAT model was used in Klong Yai River basin in order to assess the amount of inflow into reservoirs under the climate change conditions.
Yaxu Wang, Juan Lv, Jamie Hannaford, Yicheng Wang, Hongquan Sun, Lucy J. Barker, Miaomiao Ma, Zhicheng Su, and Michael Eastman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-889-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the specific applicability of drought impact indicators, this study identifies which drought indicators are suitable for characterising drought impacts and the contribution of vulnerability factors. The results show that the relationship varies across different drought impacts and cities; some factors have a strong positive correlation with drought vulnerability. This study can support drought planning work and provide background for the indices used in drought monitoring applications.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Simon Parry, Katie A. Smith, Maliko Tanguy, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4583–4602, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
It is important to understand historic droughts in order to plan and prepare for possible future events. In this study we use the standardised streamflow index for 1891–2015 to systematically identify, characterise and rank hydrological drought events for 108 near-natural UK catchments. Results show when and where the most severe events occurred and describe events of the early 20th century, providing catchment-scale detail important for both science and planning applications of the future.
Katie A. Smith, Lucy J. Barker, Maliko Tanguy, Simon Parry, Shaun Harrigan, Tim P. Legg, Christel Prudhomme, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the multi-objective calibration approach used to create a consistent dataset of reconstructed daily river flow data for 303 catchments in the UK over 1891–2015. The modelled data perform well when compared to observations, including in the timing and the classification of drought events. This method and data will allow for long-term studies of flow trends and past extreme events that have not been previously possible, enabling water managers to better plan for the future.
William Rust, Ian Holman, John Bloomfield, Mark Cuthbert, and Ron Corstanje
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3233–3245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show that major groundwater resources in the UK exhibit strong multi-year cycles, accounting for up to 40 % of total groundwater level variability. By comparing these cycles with recorded widespread groundwater droughts over the past 60 years, we provide evidence that climatic systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) ultimately drive drought-risk periods in UK groundwater. The recursive nature of these drought-risk periods may lead to improved preparedness for future droughts.
Maliko Tanguy, Christel Prudhomme, Katie Smith, and Jamie Hannaford
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 951–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-951-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is necessary input data for most hydrological models, used to simulate river flows. To reconstruct PET prior to the 1960s, simplified methods are needed because of lack of climate data required for complex methods. We found that the McGuinness–Bordne PET equation, which only needs temperature as input data, works best for the UK provided it is calibrated for local conditions. This method was used to produce a 5 km gridded PET dataset for the UK for 1891–2015.
Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
Erik Tijdeman, Jamie Hannaford, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1051-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1051-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, a screening approach was applied on a set of streamflow records for which various human influences are indicated to identify streamflow records that have drought characteristics that deviate from those expected under pristine conditions. Prolonged streamflow drought duration, a weaker correlation between streamflow and precipitation, and changes in streamflow drought occurrence over time were related to human influences such as groundwater abstractions or reservoir operations.
Sophie Bachmair, Cecilia Svensson, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Jamie Hannaford, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1947–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study tests the potential for developing empirical
drought impact functionsbased on hydro-meteorological drought indicators as predictors and text-based reports on drought impacts as a surrogate variable for drought damage. We showcase three data-driven modeling approaches and assess the effect of impact report quantification method.
Ron Corstanje, Theresa G. Mercer, Jane R. Rickson, Lynda K. Deeks, Paul Newell-Price, Ian Holman, Cedric Kechavarsi, and Toby W. Waine
Solid Earth, 8, 1003–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-1003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-1003-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This research assessed whether physical soil properties can be used to indicate the quality of British soils in terms of their delivery of ecosystem goods and services. A prioritised list of physical
soil quality indicators(SQIs) were tested for robustness, spatial and temporal variability, and expected rate of change. Seven SQIs were selected: soil packing density, water retention characteristics, aggregate stability, rate of soil erosion, soil depth, soil structure and soil sealing.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
S. Bachmair, C. Svensson, J. Hannaford, L. J. Barker, and K. Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To date, there is little empirical evidence as to which indicator best represents drought impact occurrence for any given region and/or sector. We therefore exploited text-based data from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) to evaluate drought indicators, empirically determine indicator thresholds, and model drought impacts. A quantitative analysis using Germany and the UK as a testbed proved to be a useful tool for objectively appraising drought indicators.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Andrew Chiverton, and Cecilia Svensson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Standardised meteorological indicators are widely used in drought monitoring, but applications to hydrological drought are less extensive. Here we assess the utility of standardised indicators for characterising drought duration, severity and propagation in a diverse set of 121 UK catchments. Spatial variations in streamflow drought characteristics reflect differences in drought propagation behaviour that are themselves largely driven by heterogeneity in catchment properties around the UK.
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), the study presents an assessment of the occurrence and diversity of drought impacts across Europe. A unique research database has collected close to 5000 textual drought impact reports from 33 European countries. Consistently, reported impacts have been dominated in number by agriculture and water supply, but were very diverse across other sectors. Data and assessment may help drought policy planning at the international level.
V. D. J. Keller, M. Tanguy, I. Prosdocimi, J. A. Terry, O. Hitt, S. J. Cole, M. Fry, D. G. Morris, and H. Dixon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 143–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-143-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-143-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The CEH – Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH–GEAR) dataset contains 1 km gridded estimates of daily and monthly rainfall for Great Britain and Northern Ireland (plus approximately 3000 km2 in the Republic of Ireland) from 1890 to 2012. The rainfall estimates are derived from the Met Office national database of observed precipitation, using a natural neighbour interpolation methodology which includes a normalisation step based on average annual rainfall.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
A. Chiverton, J. Hannaford, I. P. Holman, R. Corstanje, C. Prudhomme, T. M. Hess, and J. P. Bloomfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2395–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Current hydrological change detection methods are subject to a host of limitations. This paper develops a new method, temporally shifting variograms (TSVs), which characterises variability in the river flow regime using several parameters, changes in which can then be attributed to precipitation characteristics. We demonstrate the use of the method through application to 94 UK catchments, showing that periods of extremes as well as more subtle changes can be detected.
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The English Lowlands is a heavily populated, water-stressed region, which is vulnerable to long droughts typically associated with dry winters. We conduct a long-term (1910-present) quantitative analysis of precipitation, flow and groundwater droughts for the region, and then review potential climatic drivers. No single driver is dominant, but we demonstrate a physical link between La Nina conditions, winter rainfall and long droughts in the region.
J. Hannaford, G. Buys, K. Stahl, and L. M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2717–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
A downward counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Text-mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts during multi-year drought
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
The value of ultra-detailed survey data for an improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Brief communication: SWM: Stochastic Weather Model for precipitation-related hazard assessments
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings
Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?
Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysis
A multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depth
Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain
Interactions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model data
Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Mülchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-6, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all investigated regions of Switzerland. Our results highlight the benefits and need of both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent run off reaction.
Our results show, that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks by the factor 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-228, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects . We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it's crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinasa, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on experiences in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions in order to maximise efficiency and estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-179, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0, a tool for flood damage modelling to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-160, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents SWM, a stochastic weather model that produces catchment-scale stochastically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time- and spatially varying, risk assessments.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Cited articles
Anyamba, A. and Tucker, C. J.: Historical perspectives on AVHRR NDVI and vegetation drought monitoring, Remote Sensing of Drought: Innovative Monitoring Approaches, edited by: Wardlow, B. D., Anderson, M. C., Verdin, J. P., CRC Press, New York, United States of America, 2023–2051, https://doi.org/10.1201/b11863, 2012.
Arunrat, N., Sereenonchai, S., Chaowiwat, W., and Wang, C.: Climate change
impact on major crop yield and water footprint under CMIP6 climate
projections in repeated drought and flood areas in Thailand, Sci. Total
Environ., 807, 150741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150741, 2022.
Bachmair, S., Stahl, K., Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Acreman, M., Svoboda,
M., Knutson, C., Smith, K. H., Wall, N., Fuchs, B., Crossman, N. D., and
Overton, I. C.: Drought indicators revisited: the need for a wider
consideration of environment and society, WIREs Water, 3, 516–536,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1154, 2016a.
Bachmair, S., Svensson, C., Hannaford, J., Barker, L. J., and Stahl, K.: A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016, 2016b.
Bachmair, S., Tanguy, M., Hannaford, J., and Stahl, K.: How well do
meteorological indicators represent agricultural and forest drought across
Europe?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034042, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaafda, 2018.
Blair, G. S., Henrys, P., Leeson, A., Watkins, J., Eastoe, E., Jarvis, S.,
and Young, P. J.: Data Science of the Natural Environment: A Research
Roadmap, Front. Environ. Sci., 7, 121, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00121,
2019.
Bolton, D. K. and Friedl, M. A.: Forecasting crop yield using remotely
sensed vegetation indices and crop phenology metrics, Agr. Forest Meteorol.,
173, 74–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.01.007, 2013.
Bouras, E. H., Jarlan, L., Er-Raki, S., Balaghi, R., Amazirh, A., Richard,
B., and Khabba, S.: Cereal Yield Forecasting with Satellite Drought-Based
Indices, Weather Data and Regional Climate Indices Using Machine Learning in
Morocco, Remote Sens., 13, 3101, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13163101, 2021.
Bréda, N., Huc, R., Granier, A., and Dreyer, E.: Temperate forest trees
and stands under severe drought: a review of ecophysiological responses,
adaptation processes and long-term consequences, Ann. For. Sci., 63,
625–644, 2006.
Buckley, B. M., Barbetti, M., Watanasak, M., Arrigo, R. D., Boonchirdchoo,
S., and Sarutanon, S.: Dendrochronological Investigations in Thailand, IAWA
J., 16, 393–409, https://doi.org/10.1163/22941932-90001429, 1995.
Byer, S. and Jin, Y.: Detecting Drought-Induced Tree Mortality in Sierra
Nevada Forests with Time Series of Satellite Data, Remote Sens., 9, 929, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9090929, 2017.
CFE-DMHA: THAILAND Disaster Management Reference Handbook, Center for
Excellence in Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance, ISBN 978-971-955429-955433-955427, https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/disaster-management-reference-handbook-thailand-january-2022 (last access: 22 June 2023), 2022.
Coelho, A. P., de Faria, R. T., Leal, F. T., Barbosa, J. D. A., and Rosalen,
D. L.: Validation of white oat yield estimation models using vegetation
indices. Basic areas, Bragantia, 79, 2, https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-4499.20190387, 2020.
Connor, D. J., Cock, J. H., and Parra, G. E.: Response of cassava to water
shortage I. Growth and yield, Field Crop. Res., 4, 181–200, https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4290(81)90071-X, 1981.
Didan, K.: MYD13A1 MODIS/Aqua Vegetation Indices 16-day L3 Global 500m SIN
Grid V006, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD13A1.006, 2015a.
Didan, K.: MOD13A1 MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day L3 Global 500m SIN
Grid V006, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13A1.006, 2015b.
Dubey, S. K., Gavli, A. S., Yadav, S. K., Sehgal, S., and Ray, S. S.: Remote
Sensing-Based Yield Forecasting for Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.)
Crop in India, J. Indian Soc. Remot., 46, 1823–1833, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-018-0839-2, 2018.
FAO: Irrigation in Asia in Figures, Water reports, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, https://www.fao.org/1023/I9275EN/i9275en.pdf (last access: 5 January 2023), 1999.
FAO: The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security:
2021, Food and Agriculture Association of the United Nations, Rome,
https://doi.org/10.4060/cb3673en, 2021.
Farooq, M., Hussain, M., Wahid, A., and Siddique, K. H. M.: Drought Stress
in Plants: An Overview, in: Plant Responses to Drought Stress: From
Morphological to Molecular Features, edited by: Aroca, R., Springer Berlin
Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32653-0_1, 2012.
FFTC: Fruit Production, Marketing and Research and Development System in
Thailand, Food and Fertilizer Technology Cente for the Asian and Pacific
Region, https://www.fftc.org.tw/en/publications/main/1912 (last access:
19 January 2023), 2015.
Friedl, M. and Sulla-Menashe, D.: MCD12Q1 MODIS/Terra+Aqua Land Cover Type
Yearly L3 Global 500m SIN Grid V006, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes
DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD12Q1.006, 2019.
García-León, D., Contreras, S., and Hunink, J.: Comparison of
meteorological and satellite-based drought indices as yield predictors of
Spanish cereals, Agr. Water Manage., 213, 388–396, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.10.030, 2019.
Gheewala, S. H., Silalertruksa, T., Nilsalab, P., Mungkung, R., Perret, S.
R., and Chaiyawannakarn, N.: Water Footprint and Impact of Water Consumption
for Food, Feed, Fuel Crops Production in Thailand, Water, 6, 1698–1718,
2014.
Hariadi, M. H., van der Schrier, G., Steeneveld, G.-J., Sutanto, S., Sutanudjaja, E., Ratri, D. N., Sopaheluwakan, A., and Klein Tank, A.: A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-14, in review, 2023.
Hobeichi, S., Abramowitz, G., Evans, J. P., and Ukkola, A.: Toward a Robust,
Impact-Based, Predictive Drought Metric, Water Resour. Res., 58,
e2021WR031829, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031829, 2022.
ICID: Thailand, International Commission on Irrigation & Drainage, Thai National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage (THAICID), https://www.icid.org/v_thailand.pdf (last access: 5 June 2022),
2020.
Ikeda, M. and Palakhamarn, T.: Economic Damage from Natural Hazards and
Local Disaster Management Plans in Japan and Thailand, ERIA Discussion Paper
Series, No. 346, ERIA-DP-2020-2019, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and
East Asia, https://www.eria.org/research/economic-damage-from-natural-hazards-and-local-disaster-management-plans-in-japan-and-thailand/
(last access: 22 June 2023), 2020.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp., https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf (last access: 4 July 2023), 2021.
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844, 2022.
Jain, S. K., Keshri, R., Goswami, A., Sarkar, A., and Chaudhry, A.:
Identification of drought-vulnerable areas using NOAA AVHRR data, Int. J.
Remote Sens., 30, 2653–2668, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160802555788, 2009.
Jiao, W., Zhang, L., Chang, Q., Fu, D., Cen, Y., and Tong, Q.: Evaluating an
Enhanced Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Based on VIUPD for Drought
Monitoring in the Continental United States, Remote Sens., 8, 224, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8030224, 2016.
Kadam, N. N., Tamilselvan, A., Lawas, L. M. F., Quinones, C., Bahuguna, R.
N., Thomson, M. J., Dingkuhn, M., Muthurajan, R., Struik, P. C., Yin, X.,
and Jagadish, S. V. K.: Genetic Control of Plasticity in Root Morphology and
Anatomy of Rice in Response to Water Deficit, Plant Physiol., 174,
2302–2315, https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.17.00500, 2017.
Khadka, D., Babel, M. S., Shrestha, S., Virdis, S. G. P., and Collins, M.:
Multivariate and multi-temporal analysis of meteorological drought in the
northeast of Thailand, Weather and Climate Extremes, 34, 100399, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100399, 2021.
Kogan, F., Salazar, L., and Roytman, L.: Forecasting crop production using
satellite-based vegetation health indices in Kansas, USA, Int. J. Remote
Sens., 33, 2798–2814, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2011.621464, 2012.
Kogan, F. N.: Global Drought Watch from Space, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78,
621–636, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0621:GDWFS>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Lacombe, G., Polthanee, A., and Trébuil, G.: Long-term change in
rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: will cropping systems be able
to adapt?, Cah. Agric., 26, 25001, https://doi.org/10.1051/cagri/2017006, 2017.
LePoer, B. L.: Thailand: a country study, Federal Research
Division, Washington, D.C., USA, 60–65, OCLC 44366465, https://www.loc.gov/item/88600485/ (last access: 4 July 2023), 1987.
Liu, W. T. and Kogan, F. N.: Monitoring regional drought using the
Vegetation Condition Index, Int. J. Remote Sens., 17, 2761–2782, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169608949106, 1996.
Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The impracticality of a universal drought definition,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 607–611, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1025-7, 2014.
Martin, S. A. and Ritchie, R. J.: Sourcing Thai geography literature for
ASEAN and international education, Singapore J. Trop. Geo., 41, 61–85,
https://doi.org/10.1111/sjtg.12296, 2020.
Maselli, F., Romanelli, S., Bottai, L., and Maracchi, G.: Processing of GAC
NDVI data for yield forecasting in the Sahelian region, Int. J. Remote
Sens., 21, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.1080/014311600750037525, 2000.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought
frequency and duration to time scales, Eighth Conference on Applied
Climatology, 17–22 January 1993, Anaheim, California, American Meteorological Society, https://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/AMS_Relationship_Drought_Frequency_Duration_Time_Scales_1993.pdf (last access: 4 July 2023), 1993.
Menzel, C. M. and Waite, G. K.: Litchi and longan, botany, production and
uses, CABI Publishing, Oxfordshire/Cambridge, MA, ISBN 9780851996967, 2005.
Mishra, S. S. and Panda, D.: Leaf Traits and Antioxidant Defense for Drought
Tolerance During Early Growth Stage in Some Popular Traditional Rice
Landraces from Koraput, India, Rice Science, 24, 207–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsci.2017.04.001, 2017.
Mongkolsawat, C., Thirangoon, P., Suwanwerakamtorn, R., Karladee, N.,
Paiboonsak, S., and Champathet, P.: An evaluation of drought risk area in
Northeast Thailand using remotely sensed data and GIS, Asian Journal of
Geoinformatics, 1, 33–43, 2001.
NESDC: Statistics on Thailand's drought situation for the period 1989–2021,
National Economic and Social Development Council, Data collated from annual
report of the Disaster Data Center DDPM, https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=9787 (last access:
23 June 2023), 2021.
OAE: Agricultural production data, Office of Agricultural Economics,
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/thailand/agricultural-production-index-office-of-agricultural-economics (last access: 23 June 2023), 2021.
OAE: Agricultural Statistics of Thailand 2021, Office of Agricultural
Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Bangkok, Thailand, https://www.oae.go.th/assets/portals/1/files/jounal/2565/yearbook2564.pdf (last access: 23 June 2023), 2022.
OECD: OECD Economic Surveys Economic Assessment: Thailand, Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development, https://www.oecd.org/economy/thailand-economic-snapshot/ (last access: 23 June 2023), 2020.
Okogbenin, E., Setter, T., Ferguson, M., Mutegi, R., Ceballos, H., Olasanmi,
B., and Fregene, M.: Phenotypic approaches to drought in cassava: review,
Front. Physiol., 4, https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2013.00093, 2013.
Oliveira, S. L., Macedo, M. M. C., and Porto, M. C. M.: Effects of water
stress on cassava root production, Pesquia Agropecuria Brasil, 17, 121–124,
https://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=US201302182137 (last access: 31 January 2023), 1982.
Parsons, D. J., Rey, D., Tanguy, M., and Holman, I. P.: Regional variations
in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of
drought, Agr. Syst., 173, 119–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.02.015, 2019.
Pearson, K.: Notes on the history of correlation, Biometrika, 13, 25–45, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/13.1.25, 1920.
Prabnakorn, S., Maskey, S., Suryadi, F. X., and de Fraiture, C.: Rice yield
in response to climate trends and drought index in the Mun River Basin,
Thailand, Sci. Total Environ., 621, 108–119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.136, 2018.
Pradawet, C., Khongdee, N., Pansak, W., Spreer, W., Hilger, T., and Cadisch,
G.: Thermal imaging for assessment of maize water stress and yield
prediction under drought conditions, J. Agron. Crop Sci., 209, 56–70,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12582, 2023.
Pyper, B. J. and Peterman, R. M.: Comparison of methods to account for
autocorrelation in correlation analyses of fish data, Can. J. Fish. Aquat.
Sci., 55, 2127–2140, https://doi.org/10.1139/f98-104, 1998.
Rakthai, S., Fu, P.-L., Fan, Z.-X., Gaire, N. P., Pumijumnong, N.,
Eiadthong, W., and Tangmitcharoen, S.: Increased Drought Sensitivity Results
in a Declining Tree Growth of Pinus latteri in Northeastern Thailand,
Forests, 11, 361, https://doi.org/10.3390/f11030361, 2020.
RFD: Forest area of Thailand, 1973–2018, Royal Forest Department (RFD),
http://forestinfo.forest.go.th/Content.aspx?id=72 (last access: 5 June 2022), 2022.
Roebroek, C. T. J., Melsen, L. A., Hoek van Dijke, A. J., Fan, Y., and Teuling, A. J.: Global distribution of hydrologic controls on forest growth, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4625–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4625-2020, 2020.
Running, S., Mu, Q., and Zhao, M.: MOD16A2 MODIS/Terra Net
Evapotranspiration 8-Day L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V006, NASA
EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD16A2.006, 2017.
Salakpi, E. E., Hurley, P. D., Muthoka, J. M., Bowell, A., Oliver, S., and Rowhani, P.: A dynamic hierarchical Bayesian approach for forecasting vegetation condition, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2725–2749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2725-2022, 2022.
Sa-nguansilp, C., Wijitkosum, S., and Sriprachote, A.: Agricultural Drought
Risk Assessment in Lam Ta Kong Watershed, International Journal of
Geoinformatics, 13, 46, https://journals.sfu.ca/ijg/index.php/journal/article/view/1090 (last access: 23 June 2023), 2017.
Sano, M., Buckley, B. M., and Sweda, T.: Tree-ring based hydroclimate
reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth
century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence, Clim. Dynam., 33, 331–340, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0454-y, 2008.
Sanoamuang, L. and Dabseepai, P.: Diversity, Distribution, and Habitat
Occurrence of the Diaptomid Copepods (Crustacea: Copepoda: Diaptomidae) in
Freshwater Ecosystems of Thailand, Water, 13, 2381, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172381, 2021.
Schenk, H. J. and Jackson, R. B.: The Global Biogeography Of Roots, Ecol.
Monogr., 72, 311–328, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9615(2002)072[0311:TGBOR]2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Shams Esfandabadi, H., Ghamary Asl, M., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., Gautam, S.,
and Ranjbari, M.: Drought assessment in paddy rice fields using remote
sensing technology towards achieving food security and SDG2, Brit. Food J.,
124, 4219–4233, https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-08-2021-0872, 2022.
Shen, R., Huang, A., Li, B., and Guo, J.: Construction of a drought
monitoring model using deep learning based on multi-source remote sensing
data, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs., 79, 48–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2019.03.006, 2019.
Singh, R. P., Roy, S., and Kogan, F.: Vegetation and temperature condition
indices from NOAA AVHRR data for drought monitoring over India, Int. J.
Remote Sens., 24, 4393–4402, https://doi.org/10.1080/0143116031000084323, 2003.
Smith, K. H., Svoboda, M., Hayes, M., Reges, H., Doesken, N., Lackstrom, K.,
Dow, K., and Brennan, A.: Local Observers Fill In the Details on Drought
Impact Reporter Maps, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1659–1662, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-95.11.1659, 2014.
Smith, R., Adams, J., Stephens, D., and Hick, P.: Forecasting wheat yield in
a Mediterranean-type environment from the NOAA satellite, Aust. J. Agr.
Res., 46, 113–125, https://doi.org/10.1071/AR9950113, 1995.
Sowcharoensuk, C. and Marknual, C.: Severe drought: Agriculture sector takes
direct hit and spillover effects on manufacturing supply chains, Bank of
Ayudhya's Krungsri Research Intellingence Report, https://www.krungsri.com/getmedia/dc6db8a2-00d2-4c3b-bbd4-ebad9275193b/RI_Drought_200207_EN.pdf.aspx (last access: 23 June 2023), 2020.
Spreer, W., Schulze, K., Ongprasert, S., Wiriya-Alongkorn, W., and
Müller, J.: Mango and Longan Production in Northern Thailand: The Role
of Water Saving Irrigation and Water Stress Monitoring, in: Sustainable Land
Use and Rural Development in Southeast Asia: Innovations and Policies for
Mountainous Areas, edited by: Fröhlich, H. L., Schreinemachers, P.,
Stahr, K., and Clemens, G., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg,
215–228, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33377-4_6, 2013.
Stahl, K., Kohn, I., Blauhut, V., Urquijo, J., De Stefano, L., Acácio, V., Dias, S., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Kampragou, E., Van Loon, A. F., Barker, L. J., Melsen, L. A., Bifulco, C., Musolino, D., de Carli, A., Massarutto, A., Assimacopoulos, D., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016.
Sutanto, S. J., van der Weert, M., Wanders, N., Blauhut, V., and Van Lanen,
H. A. J.: Moving from drought hazard to impact forecasts, Nat. Commun., 10,
4945, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12840-z, 2019.
Thammachote, P. and Trichim, J. I.: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on
Thailand's Agricultural Export Flows, Feed the Future report, The U.S.
Government's Global Hunger & Food Security Initiative, https://www.canr.msu.edu/prci/PRCI-Research-Paper-4-Thailand_updated.pdf (last access: 29 January 2023), 2021.
Thavorntam, W. and Shahnawaz, S.: Evaluation of Drought in the North of
Thailand using Meteorological and Satellite-Based Drought Indices,
International Journal of Geoinformatics, 18, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.52939/ijg.v18i5.2367, 2022.
Thavorntam, W., Tantemsapya, N., and Armstrong, L.: A combination of
meteorological and satellite-based drought indices in a better drought
assessment and forecasting in Northeast Thailand, Nat. Hazards, 77,
1453–1474, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1501-0, 2015.
Torres, P., Rodes-Blanco, M., Viana-Soto, A., Nieto, H., and García,
M.: The Role of Remote Sensing for the Assessment and Monitoring of Forest
Health: A Systematic Evidence Synthesis, Forests, 12, 1134, https://doi.org/10.3390/f12081134, 2021.
Tucker, C. J.: Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for
monitoring vegetation, Remote Sens. Environ., 8, 127–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(79)90013-0, 1979.
UNDRR: The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, United
Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 32 pp., https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030 (last access: 23 June 2023), 2015.
UNDRR and ADCP: Disaster Risk Reduction in Thailand: Status Report 2020,
UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) and ADCP (Asian
Disaster Preparedness Center), Climate Change and Climate Risk Management,
DRR Report, http://www.adpc.net/Igo/contents/Publications/publications-Details.asp?pid=1681#sthash.JBSoZQWU.dpbs (last access: 23 June 2023), 2020.
Unganai, L. S. and Kogan, F. N.: Southern Africa's recent droughts from
space, Adv. Space Res.-Series, 21, 507–511, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0273-1177(97)00888-0, 1998.
Varawoot, V.: Historical Irrigation Development of Thailand, Irrigation
Technology Research, Development Laboratory, Department of Irrigation
Engineering, Kasetsart University, Kamphaengsaen campus, https://eng.kps.ku.ac.th/irre/slideshow/pdf/4.pdf (last access:
18 February 2023), 2016.
Venkatappa, M., Sasaki, N., Han, P., and Abe, I.: Impacts of droughts and
floods on croplands and crop production in Southeast Asia – An application
of Google Earth Engine, Sci. Total Environ., 795, 148829, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148829, 2021.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I.: A
Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, J. Climate, 23, 1696–1718, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2909.1, 2010.
Wan, Z., Hook, S., and Hulley, G.: MOD11A2 MODIS/Terra Land Surface
Temperature/Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006, NASA
EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD11A2.061, 2015.
Wang, Y., Lv, J., Hannaford, J., Wang, Y., Sun, H., Barker, L. J., Ma, M., Su, Z., and Eastman, M.: Linking drought indices to impacts to support drought risk assessment in Liaoning province, China, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-889-2020, 2020.
WBG and ADB: Climate Risk Country Profile: Thailand (2021), The World Bank
Group and the Asian Development Bank, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/722251/climate-risk-country-profile-thailand.pdf
(last access: 23 June 2023), 2021.
Wijitkosum, S.: Fuzzy AHP for drought risk assessment in Lam Ta Kong
watershed, the north-eastern region of Thailand, Soil Water Res.,
13, 218–225, 2018.
Wilhite, D. A. and Glantz, M. H.: Understanding: the Drought Phenomenon: The
Role of Definitions, Water Int., 10, 111–120, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328,
1985.
WMO: WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and
Water Extremes (1970–2019), WMO-No. 1267, World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), ISBN 978-992-963-11267-11265, https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21930#.Y11294o_11263bP11262Ul (last access: 23 June 2023), 2014.
Yang, X., Wang, B., Chen, L., Li, P., and Cao, C.: The different influences
of drought stress at the flowering stage on rice physiological traits, grain
yield, and quality, Sci. Rep., 9, 3742, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40161-0, 2019.
Yatagai, A., Kamiguchi, K., Arakawa, O., Hamada, A., Yasutomi, N., and
Kitoh, A.: APHRODITE: Constructing a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation
Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 93, 1401–1415, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00122.1, 2012.
Yoshida, K., Srisutham, M., Sritumboon, S., Suanburi, D., and
Janjirauttikul, N.: Weather-induced economic damage to upland crops and the
impact on farmer household income in Northeast Thailand, Paddy Water
Environ., 17, 341–349, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-019-00729-y, 2019.
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint