Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
26 May 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 26 May 2023

The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?

Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk

Related authors

Ecosystem adaptation to climate change: the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to time-dynamic model parameters
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in western Europe: climate change or internal variability?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4745–4766, 2018. 
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., Mcdowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., and Hogg, E. H.: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 660–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001, 2010. 
Anderegg, W. R., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Konings, A. G., and Shaw, J.: Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 1091–1095, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00919-1, 2020. 
Attema, J. J., Loriaux, J. M., and Lenderink, G.: Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model, ERL, 9, 014003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014003, 2014. 
Balsamo, G., Beljaars, A., Scipal, K., Viterbo, P., Van den Hurk, B., Hirschi, M., and Betts, A. K.: A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model: Verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the integrated forecast system, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 623–643, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1068.1, 2009. 
Download
Executive editor
Droughts and associated heat waves threaten society and nature, as again demonstrated in this year's drought event in Europe. This study examines the impact of global warming on drought severity in west-central Europe by creating future analogues of present-day droughts. On the one hand, this approach allows the authors to investigate changes in droughts conditional on the present-day atmospheric circulation. On the other hand, the future drought analogues are directly linked to real-world events and their societal impact, which make the results very tangible and therewith useful for climate change communication to policy makers, decision makers as well as the broader public.
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint