Articles | Volume 23, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
26 May 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 26 May 2023
| 26 May 2023
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Emma E. Aalbers
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Research & Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Erik van Meijgaard
Research & Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Geert Lenderink
Research & Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Hylke de Vries
Research & Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV, Delft, the Netherlands
Related authors
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the inter-annual variability of three single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), downscaled with three regional climate models over Europe for seasonal temperature and precipitation, the number of heatwaves, and maximum length of dry periods. They all show good consistency with observational data. The magnitude of variability and the future development are similar in many cases. In general, variability increases for summer indicators and decreases for winter indicators.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rain caused flooding in France and Germany at the end of May 2016. After such an event the question is always posed to what extent it can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Using observations and five model ensembles we give a first answer. For the 3-day precipitation extremes over the Seine and Loire basins that caused the flooding all methods agree that the probability has increased by a factor of about two. For 1-day precipitation extremes in Germany the methods disagree.
Marjolein Ribberink, Hylke de Vries, Nadia Bloemendaal, Michiel Baatsen, and Erik van Meijgaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-218, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
Hurricane Ophelia of October 2017 is a rare example of a strong post-tropical cyclone impacting Europe, an event that is expected to occur more frequently as our climate warms. This study examines the changes in structure, behaviour, and extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia under alternate climate forcing using a regional model. We find that in warmer climates the storm becomes stronger, larger, and maintains the characteristics of a tropical cyclone for longer than in cooler climates.
José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion and emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Nadia Pinardi, Bart van den Hurk, Michael Depuydt, Thorsten Kiefer, Petra Manderscheid, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, and Kanika Singh
State Planet, 3-slre1, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (KH-SLR), a joint effort between JPI Climate and JPI Oceans, addresses the critical need for science-based information on sea level changes in Europe. The KH-SLR actively involves stakeholders through a co-design process discussing the impacts, adaptation planning, and policy requirements related to SLR in Europe. Its primary output is the KH Assessment Report (KH-AR), which is described in this volume.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-132, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and The Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Jonna van Mourik, Hylke de Vries, and Michiel Baatsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-999, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blockings are quasi-stationary high-pressure areas with large influences on our weather. We show that using the most common blocking index does not only lead to stationary blocks, but also to east- and westward moving blocks. These respective moving blocks are found to have different characteristics in size and location. Even though they are not stationary, they still impact our surface temperatures. Thus, for impact analyses no restriction in propagation velocity is needed.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, and Maurice Schmeits
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 887–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Variability in the tropics can influence weather over Europe. This study evaluates a summertime connection between the two. It shows that strongly opposing west Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have occurred more frequently since 1980, likely due to a combination of long-term warming in the west Pacific and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Three to six weeks later, the distribution of hot and cold airmasses over Europe is affected.
Giorgia Di Capua, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Antje Weisheimer, Andrew G. Turner, and Reik V. Donner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 701–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy rainfall in tropical regions interacts with mid-latitude circulation patterns, and this interaction can explain weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere during summer. In this analysis we detect these tropical–extratropical interaction pattern both in observational datasets and data obtained by atmospheric models and assess how well atmospheric models can reproduce the observed patterns. We find a good agreement although these relationships are weaker in model data.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Emma E. Aalbers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Mark Hegnauer, Hendrik Buiteveld, Rita Lammersen, Jasper Stam, Eric Sprokkereef, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assuming stationarity of hydrological systems is no longer appropriate when considering land use and climate change. We tested the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to changes in model parameters that reflect ecosystem adaptation to climate and potential land use change. We estimated a 34 % increase in the root zone storage parameter under +2 K global warming, resulting in up to 15 % less streamflow in autumn, due to 14 % higher summer evaporation, compared to a stationary system.
Wim C. de Rooy, Pier Siebesma, Peter Baas, Geert Lenderink, Stephan R. de Roode, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Jan Fokke Meirink, Sander Tijm, and Bram van 't Veen
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1513-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a comprehensive model update to the boundary layer schemes. Because the involved parameterisations are all built on widely applied frameworks, the here-described modifications are applicable to many NWP and climate models. The model update contains substantial modifications to the cloud, turbulence, and convection schemes and leads to a substantial improvement of several aspects of the model, especially low cloud forecasts.
Ruud T. W. L. Hurkmans, Bart van den Hurk, Maurice J. Schmeits, Fredrik Wetterhall, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-604, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-604, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal forecasts can help in safely and efficiently managing a fresh water reservoir in the Netherlands. We compare hydrological forecast systems of the river Rhine, the lakes most important source and analyze forecast skill for over 1993–2016 and for specific extreme years. On average, forecast skill is high in spring due to Alpine snow and smaller in summer. Dry summers appear to be more predictable, skill increases with event extremity. In those cases, seasonal forecasts are valuable tools.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1503–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Víctor M. Santos, Mercè Casas-Prat, Benjamin Poschlod, Elisa Ragno, Bart van den Hurk, Zengchao Hao, Tímea Kalmár, Lianhua Zhu, and Husain Najafi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3595–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3595-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an application of multivariate statistical models to assess compound flooding events in a managed reservoir. Data (from a previous study) were obtained from a physical-based hydrological model driven by a regional climate model large ensemble, providing a time series expanding up to 800 years in length that ensures stable statistics. The length of the data set allows for a sensitivity assessment of the proposed statistical framework to natural climate variability.
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the inter-annual variability of three single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), downscaled with three regional climate models over Europe for seasonal temperature and precipitation, the number of heatwaves, and maximum length of dry periods. They all show good consistency with observational data. The magnitude of variability and the future development are similar in many cases. In general, variability increases for summer indicators and decreases for winter indicators.
Maialen Iturbide, José M. Gutiérrez, Lincoln M. Alves, Joaquín Bedia, Ruth Cerezo-Mota, Ezequiel Cimadevilla, Antonio S. Cofiño, Alejandro Di Luca, Sergio Henrique Faria, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Mathias Hauser, Sixto Herrera, Kevin Hennessy, Helene T. Hewitt, Richard G. Jones, Svitlana Krakovska, Rodrigo Manzanas, Daniel Martínez-Castro, Gemma T. Narisma, Intan S. Nurhati, Izidine Pinto, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Bart van den Hurk, and Carolina S. Vera
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2959–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an update of the IPCC WGI reference regions used in AR5 for the synthesis of climate change information. This revision was guided by the basic principles of climatic consistency and model representativeness (in particular for the new CMIP6 simulations). We also present a new dataset of monthly CMIP5 and CMIP6 spatially aggregated information using the new reference regions and describe a worked example of how to use this dataset to inform regional climate change studies.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, and Minchao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1311–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new regional climate modelling system, HCLIM38, is presented and shown to be applicable in different regions ranging from the tropics to the Arctic. The main focus is on climate simulations at horizontal resolutions between 1 and 4 km, the so-called convection-permitting scales, even though the model can also be used at coarser resolutions. The benefits of simulating climate at convection-permitting scales are shown and are particularly evident for climate extremes.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Drivers from both the mid-latitudes and the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-11, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Both drivers from the mid-latitudes and from the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Salomon Eliasson, Karl Göran Karlsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Jan Fokke Meirink, Martin Stengel, and Ulrika Willén
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 829–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-829-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-829-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
To enable fair comparisons of clouds between climate models and the
ESA Cloud_cci climate data record (CDR), we present a tool called the
Cloud_cci simulator. The tool takes into account the geometry and
cloud detection capabilities of the Cloud_cci CDR to allow fair
comparisons. We demonstrate the simulator on two climate models. We
find the impact of time sampling has a large effect on simulated cloud
water amount and that the simulator reduces the cloud cover by about
10 % globally.
Iris Manola, Bart van den Hurk, Hans De Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3777–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. We investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a
future weatherscenario.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
Sonu Khanal, Nina Ridder, Hylke de Vries, Wilco Terink, and Bart van den Hurk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-103, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the possibility of finding near simultaneous storm surge and extreme river discharge using an extended data set derived from a storm surge model and two hydrological river-discharge models forced with conditions from a highresolution climate model in ensemble model. The study highlights that the hazard of a co-occurrence of high river discharge and coastal water levels cannot be neglected in a robust risk assessment.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Bart van den Hurk, Brenden Jongman, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Ted Veldkamp, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Preparedness activities and flood forecasting have received increasing attention and have led towards new science-based early warning systems. Understanding the flood triggering mechanisms will result in increasing warning lead times, providing sufficient time for early action. Findings of this study indicate that the consideration of short- and long-term antecedent conditions can be used by humanitarian organizations and decision makers for improved flood risk management.
Astrid M. M. Manders, Peter J. H. Builtjes, Lyana Curier, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Carlijn Hendriks, Sander Jonkers, Richard Kranenburg, Jeroen J. P. Kuenen, Arjo J. Segers, Renske M. A. Timmermans, Antoon J. H. Visschedijk, Roy J. Wichink Kruit, W. Addo J. van Pul, Ferd J. Sauter, Eric van der Swaluw, Daan P. J. Swart, John Douros, Henk Eskes, Erik van Meijgaard, Bert van Ulft, Peter van Velthoven, Sabine Banzhaf, Andrea C. Mues, Rainer Stern, Guangliang Fu, Sha Lu, Arnold Heemink, Nils van Velzen, and Martijn Schaap
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4145–4173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The regional-scale air quality model LOTOS–EUROS has been developed by a consortium of Dutch institutes. Recently, version 2.0 of the model was released as an open-source version. Next to a technical description and model evaluation for 2012, this paper presents the model developments in context of the history of air quality modelling and provides an outlook for future directions. Key and innovative applications of LOTOS–EUROS are also highlighted.
Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth Stephens, Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Maarten van Aalst, Bart van den Hurk, Simon Mason, Hannah Nissan, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4517–4524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster managers would like to use seasonal forecasts to anticipate flooding months in advance. However, current seasonal forecasts give information on rainfall instead of flooding. Here, we find that the number of extreme events, rather than total rainfall, is most related to flooding in different regions of Africa. We recommend several forecast adjustments and research opportunities that would improve flood information at the seasonal timescale in different regions.
Emma Daniels, Geert Lenderink, Ronald Hutjes, and Albert Holtslag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4129–4142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4129-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4129-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Using a weather model, we find that historic and future land use changes have a smaller effect (decrease) on summer precipitation in the Netherlands than climate change has (increase). As a result, precipitation will likely continue to increase over the coming decades. Nevertheless, in the Netherlands the influence of land surface changes on summer precipitation is not negligible and counters the effect of climate change, especially for extreme precipitation.
Erin Coughlan de Perez, Bart van den Hurk, Maarten K. van Aalst, Irene Amuron, Deus Bamanya, Tristan Hauser, Brenden Jongma, Ana Lopez, Simon Mason, Janot Mendler de Suarez, Florian Pappenberger, Alexandra Rueth, Elisabeth Stephens, Pablo Suarez, Jurjen Wagemaker, and Ervin Zsoter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3549–3560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Many flood disaster impacts could be avoided by preventative action; however, early action is not guaranteed. This article demonstrates the design of a new system of forecast-based financing, which automatically triggers action when a flood forecast arrives, before a potential disaster. We establish "action triggers" for northern Uganda based on a global flood forecasting system, verifying these forecasts and assessing the uncertainties inherent in setting a trigger in a data-scarce location.
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rain caused flooding in France and Germany at the end of May 2016. After such an event the question is always posed to what extent it can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Using observations and five model ensembles we give a first answer. For the 3-day precipitation extremes over the Seine and Loire basins that caused the flooding all methods agree that the probability has increased by a factor of about two. For 1-day precipitation extremes in Germany the methods disagree.
Zun Yin, Stefan C. Dekker, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Biogeosciences, 13, 3343–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Bimodality is found in aboveground biomass and mean annual shortwave radiation in West Africa, which is a strong evidence of alternative stable states. The condition with low biomass and low radiation is demonstrated under which ecosystem state can shift between savanna and forest states. Moreover, climatic indicators have different prediction confidences to different land cover types. A new method is proposed to predict potential land cover change with a combination of climatic indicators.
E. Coughlan de Perez, B. van den Hurk, M. K. van Aalst, B. Jongman, T. Klose, and P. Suarez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 895–904, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
How can we use weather or climate forecasts to avoid disasters? This article offers a framework for determining when it is "worth" taking action to try to avoid a potential disaster. Considering forecast probabilities, actions, and funding constraints, we propose a novel forecast-based financing system that would automatically trigger action based on forecasts of increased risks.
B. P. Guillod, B. Orlowsky, D. Miralles, A. J. Teuling, P. D. Blanken, N. Buchmann, P. Ciais, M. Ek, K. L. Findell, P. Gentine, B. R. Lintner, R. L. Scott, B. Van den Hurk, and S. I. Seneviratne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014
S. J. Sutanto, B. van den Hurk, P. A. Dirmeyer, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Röckmann, K. E. Trenberth, E. M. Blyth, J. Wenninger, and G. Hoffmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2815–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2815-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2815-2014, 2014
L. Batlle-Bayer, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, C. Müller, and J. van Minnen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-585-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-585-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 821–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-821-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-821-2014, 2014
S. F. Kew, F. M. Selten, G. Lenderink, and W. Hazeleger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2017–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2017-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2017-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explored the possibility of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Adding mixtures of 3 to 5 amendment types substantially increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion and increased microorganism abundance, while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Cited articles
Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.:
Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in western Europe:
climate change or internal variability?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4745–4766, 2018.
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., Mcdowell, N.,
Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., and Hogg, E. H.:
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals
emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest Ecol. Manag.,
259, 660–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001, 2010.
Anderegg, W. R., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Konings, A. G., and Shaw, J.:
Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts, Nat. Clim.
Change, 10, 1091–1095, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00919-1, 2020.
Attema, J. J., Loriaux, J. M., and Lenderink, G.: Extreme precipitation
response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model, ERL, 9, 014003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014003, 2014.
Balsamo, G., Beljaars, A., Scipal, K., Viterbo, P., Van den Hurk, B.,
Hirschi, M., and Betts, A. K.: A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model:
Verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the
integrated forecast system, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 623–643,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1068.1, 2009.
Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (BfG), Niedrigwasser-Berichtsperiode
12.–18.08.2022. Niedrigwasserextreme mit Aussicht auf zeitweise Linderung, https://www.bafg.de/DE/07_Nachrichten/220623_nw_download9.pdf?_blob=publicationFile, last access: 5 September 2022.
Bastos, A., Orth, R., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Gentine, P., Joetzjer, E., Lienert, S., Loughran, T., McGuire, P. C., O, S., Pongratz, J., and Sitch, S.: Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021.
Beillouin, D., Schauberger, B., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., and Makowski, D.:
Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018,
Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 375, 20190510, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0510, 2020.
Benedict, I., Van Heerwaarden, C. C., Van der Linden, E. C., Weerts, A. H., and
Hazeleger, W.: Anomalous moisture sources of the Rhine basin during the
extremely dry summers of 2003 and 2018, Weather Clim. Extremes,
31, 100302, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100302, 2021.
Bissolli. P. (Ed.): Europe and the Middle East [in “State of the Climate in
2018”], B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, S217–S230,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1, 2019.
Bissolli. P. (Ed.): Europe and the Middle East [in “State of the Climate in
2019”], B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, S363–S372,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1, 2020.
Bissolli, P. (Ed.): Europe and the Middle East [in “State of the Climate in
2020”], B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, S410–S413,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2021BAMSStateoftheClimate.1, 2021.
Bouaziz, L. J. E., Aalbers, E. E., Weerts, A. H., Hegnauer, M., Buiteveld, H., Lammersen, R., Stam, J., Sprokkereef, E., Savenije, H. H. G., and Hrachowitz, M.: Ecosystem adaptation to climate change: the sensitivity of hydrological predictions to time-dynamic model parameters, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1295–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1295-2022, 2022.
Brakkee, E., van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., and Bartholomeus, R. P.: Improved understanding of regional groundwater drought development through time series modelling: the 2018–2019 drought in the Netherlands, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 551–569, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-551-2022, 2022.
Brogli, R., Sørland, S. L., Kröner, N., and Schär, C.: Causes of
future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season,
Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 114017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438, 2019.
Brunner, M. I., Liechti, K., and Zappa, M.: Extremeness of recent drought events in Switzerland: dependence on variable and return period choice, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A. J., and Wehner, M.: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1029–1136, 2013.
Coppola, E., Nogherotto, R., Ciarlo', J. M., Giorgi, F., Van Meijgaard, E., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Corre, L., Sandstad, M., Somot, S., Nabat, P., Vautard, R., Levavasseur, G., Schwingshackl, C., Sillmann, J., Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Aalbers, E., Lenderink, G., Christensen, O. B., Boberg, F., Sørland, S. L., Demory, M.-E., Bülow, K., Teichmann, C., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.:
Assessment of the European climate projections as simulated by the large
EURO-CORDEX regional and global climate model ensemble, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2019JD032356, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032356, 2021.
Cornes, R. C., Van der Schrier, G., Van den Besselaar, E. J., and Jones, P. D.:
An ensemble version of the E-OBS temperature and precipitation data sets,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 9391–9409,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.
Coumou, D., Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.:
Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of
extreme weather in boreal summer, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 111, 12331–12336, 2014.
De Brito, M. M., Kuhlicke, C., and Marx, A.: Near-real-time drought impact
assessment: a text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany,
Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 1040a9, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca, 2020.
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H. Uncertainty in climate
change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam.,
38, 527–546, 2010.
De Vries, H., Lenderink, G., Van der Wiel, K., and Van Meijgaard, E.:
Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer
precipitation change, Clim. Dynam., 59, 2871–2886,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06250-z, 2022.
ECMWF: IFS Documentation CY33R1 – Part IV: Physical Processes, Number 4 in
IFS Documentation. ECMWF, 2009, https://doi.org/10.21957/8o7vwlbdr, Operational implementation 3 June 2008, 2009.
Fischer, E., Sedláček, J., Hawkins, E., and Knutti, R.: Models agree
on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8554–8562, 2014.
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and Schär,
C.: Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer
heat wave, J. Climate, 20, 5081–5099, 2007.
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.:
Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations
for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 572–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038, 2013.
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Anthropogenic climate change affects
meteorological drought risk in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett.,
11, 044005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005, 2016.
Gutiérrez, J. M., Jones, R. G., Narisma, G. T., Alves, L. M., Amjad, M.,
Gorodetskaya, I. V., Grose, M., Klutse, N. A. B., Krakovska, S., Li, J.,
Martínez-Castro, D., Mearns, L. O., Mernild, S. H., Ngo-Duc, T., Van den
Hurk, B., and Yoon, J.-H.: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte,
V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N.,
Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA, 1927–2058, IPCC AR6 Atlas, 2021.
Hanel, M., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y., Máca, P., Samaniego, L., Kysel?,
J., and Kumar, R.: Revisiting the recent European droughts from a long-term
perspective, Sci. Rep., 8, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27464-4, 2018.
Hari, V., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y., Hanel, M., and Kumar, R.: Increased
future occurrences of the exceptional 2018–2019 central European drought
under global warming, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68872-9, 2020.
Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Sţefanescu, S., Yang, S., Wang, X., Wyser, K., Dutra, E., Baldasano, J. M., Bintanja, R., Bougeault, P., Caballero, R., Ekman, A. M. L., Christensen, J. H., van den Hurk, B., Jimenez, P., Jones, C., Kaållberg, P., Koenigk, T., McGrath, R., Miranda, P., van Noije, T., Palmer, T., Parodi, J. A., Schmith, T., Selten, F., Storelvmo, T., Sterl, A., Tapamo, H., Vancoppenolle, M., Viterbo, P., and Willeìn, U.: EC-Earth: a seamless earth-system prediction approach in action, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1357–1363, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1, 2010.
Hazeleger, W., Van den Hurk, B., Min, E., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Petersen, A.
C., Stainforth, D. A., Vasileiadou, E., and Smith, L. A.: Tales of future
weather, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 107–113,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450, 2015.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M, De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., De Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy.
Meteorol. Soc., 146 1999–2049, 2020.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., Van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: Euro-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change
projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-04, 2014.
Jarvis. P.: The interpretation of the variations in leaf water potential and
stomatal conductance found in canopies in the field,
Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, Biological Sciences,
273, 593–610, 1976.
Klein Tank, A., Beersma, J., Bessembinder, J., van den Hurk, B. and Lenderink, G.: KNMI’14 climate scenarios for the Netherlands: A guide for professionals in climate adaptation, KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands, 34 pp., 2015
Kornhuber, K., Osprey, S., Coumou, D., Petri, S., Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf,
S., and Gray, L.: Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a
recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern, Environ. Res. Lett.,
14, 054002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab13bf, 2019.
Kramer, N., Mens, M., Beersma, J., and Kielen, N.: Hoe extreem
was de droogte van 2018?, H20-Online, https://www.h2owaternetwerk.nl/vakartikelen/hoe-extreem-was-de-droogte-van-2018 (last access: 18 May 2023), 2019.
Krikken, F., Lehner, F., Haustein, K., Drobyshev, I., and van Oldenborgh, G. J.: Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021.
Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Fischer, E., Lüthi, D., Zubler, E., and
Schär, C.: Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic,
lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European
summer climate, Clim. Dynam., 48, 3415–3440,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3276-3, 2017.
Lenderink, G. and Attema, J.: A simple scaling approach to produce climate
scenarios of local precipitation extremes for the Netherlands, Environ. Res.
Lett., 10, 085001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085001, 2015.
Lenderink, G., Van Ulden, A., Van den Hurk, B., and Van Meijgaard, E.:
Summertime inter-annual temperature variability in an ensemble of regional
model simulations: analysis of the surface energy budget, Clim. Change,
81, 233–247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9229-9, 2007.
Lenderink, G., Belušić, D., Fowler, H. J., Kjellström, E., Lind,
P., Van Meijgaard, E., Van Ulft, B., and De Vries, H.: Systematic increases
in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an
idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model,
Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 074012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab214a, 2019.
Lenderink, G., De Vries, H., Van Meijgaard, E., Van der Wiel, K.,
and Selten, F.: A perfect model study on the reliability of the added small-scale information in regional climate change projections. Clim. Dynam., 60, 2563–2579, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06451-6, 2023.
Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Van Loon, A. F., Maraun, D., and
Vrac, M.: Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events
in Europe during summer (1950–2013), Environ. Res. Lett.,
14,094006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23bf, 2019.
Matiu, M., Ankerst, D. P., and Menzel, A.: Interactions between temperature and
drought in global and regional crop yield variability during 1961–2014, PLoS
ONE, 12, e0178339, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178339, 2017.
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Winn, J. P., Hogan, E., Killick, R. E., Dunn,
R. J. H., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. D., and Simpson, I. R.: An updated assessment
of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 dataset, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2019JD032361,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361, 2021.
Orth, R., Zscheischler, J., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Record dry summer in 2015
challenges precipitation projections in central Europe, Sci. Rep.,
6, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep28334, 2016.
Padrón, R. S., Gudmundsson, L., Decharme, B., Ducharne, A., Lawrence, D. M., Mao,
J., Peano, D., Krinner, G., Kim, H., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Observed
changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate
change, Nat. Geosci., 13, 477–481, 2020.
Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., Van der Wiel, K., Wanders, N., and Van Oldenborgh,
G. J.: Regional differentiation in climate change induced drought trends in
the Netherlands, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 081, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab97ca, 2020.
Prein, A. F., Rasmussen, R. M., Ikeda, K., Liu, C., Clark, M. P., and Holland,
G. J.: The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes, Nat.
Clim. Change, 7, 48–52, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3168, 2017.
Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Hari, V., Markonis, Y., Moravec, V., Thober, S., Hanel, M., and Kumar, R.: The 2018–2020 Multi-Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe,
Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002394m https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002394,
2022.
Rasmijn, L. M., Van der Schrier, G., Bintanja, R., Barkmeijer, J., Sterl, A.,
and Hazeleger W.: Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave instensified by
weakening soil moisture constraints, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 381–385,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0114-0
Rebetez, M., Mayer, H., Dupont, O., Schindler, D., Gartner, K., Kropp, J. P.,
and Menzel, A.: Heat and drought 2003 in Europe: a climate synthesis, Ann. Forest Sci., 63, 569–577, 2006.
Rösner, B., Benedict, I., Van Heerwaarden, C., Weerts, A., Hazeleger, W., Bissolli, P., and Trachte, K.: Sidebar 7.3: The
long heat wave and drought in Europe in 2018 [in “state of the climate in
2018”], B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, S221–S237,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1, 2019.
Ruosteenoja, K., Markkanen, T., Venäläinen, A., Räisänen, P.,
and Peltola, H.: Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in
CMIP5 projections for the 21st century, Clim. Dynam., 50, 1177–1192,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4, 2018.
Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Rakovec, O., Pan, M.,
Zink, M., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Marx. A.: Anthropogenic warming
exacerbates European soil moisture droughts, Nat. Clim. Change,
8, 421–426, 2018.
Schär, C., Frei, C., Lüthi, D., and Davies, H. C.: Surrogate
climate-change scenarios for regional climate models, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 23, 669–672, 1996.
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C.,
Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature
variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336, 2004.
Schuldt, B., Buras, A., Arend, M., Vitasse, Y., Beierkuhnlein, C., Damm, A., Gharun, M., Grams, T. E., Hauck, M., Hajek, P., Hartmann, H., Hiltbrunner, E., Hoch, G., Holloway-Phillips, M., Körner, C., Larysch, E., Lübbe, T., Nelson, D. B., Ramming, A., Rigling, A., Rose, L., Ruehr, N. K., Schumann, K., Weiser, F., Werner, C., Wohlgemuth, T., Zang, C. S., and Kahmen, A.: A first assessment of the impact of the extreme 2018 summer drought on central European forests, Basic Appl. Ecol., 45, 86–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2020.04.003, 2020.
Selten, F. M., Bintanja, R., Vautard, R., and Van den Hurk, B.: Future
continental summer warming constrained by the present-day seasonal cycle of
surface hydrology, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–7, 2020.
Seneviratne, S., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B.,
Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil
moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, 2010.
Seneviratne, S.I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C.M., Kanae S., Kossin, J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sorteberg, A., Vera, C., and Zhang, X.: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M.: A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 109–230, 2012.
Senf, C. and Seidl, R.: Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe, Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021.
Shepherd, T. G.: Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in
climate change projections, Nat. Geosci., 7, 703–708, 2014.
Shepherd, T. G.: Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate
change information, P. Roy. Soc. A, 475 20190013, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0013,
2019.
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S.,
Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior,
C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E.,
Van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., and Zenghelis, D.:
Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty in climate
change, Clim. Change, 151, 555–571,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9, 2018.
Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T., Van den Hurk, B., Hazeleger, W.,
Romppainen-Martius O., and Zscheischler, J.: Event-based storylines to
address climate risk, Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001783, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001783, 2021.
Sluijter, R., Plieger, M., Van Oldenborgh, G., Beersma, J., and De Vries, H.:
De droogte van 2018: een analyse op basis van het potentiële
neerslagtekort, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Tech. Rep., 117162, 38 pp.,
2018.
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Barriopedro, D., Soares, P. M., Ramos, A. M., and
Liberato, M. L.: Responses of European precipitation distributions and
regimes to different blocking locations, Clim. Dynam., 48, 1141–1160, 2017.
Sousa, P. M., Trigo, R. M., Barriopedro, D., Soares, P. M., and Santos, J. A.:
European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns,
Clim. Dynam., 50, 457–477, 2018.
Sousa, P. M., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Ordóñez, C.,
Soares, P. M. M., and Trigo, R. M: Distinct influences of large-scale
circulation and regional feedbacks in two exceptional 2019 European
heatwaves, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 48,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00048-9, 2020.
Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Vogt, J.
V., Magni, D., Masante, D., and Mazzeschi, M.: A new global database of
meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016, J. Hydrol.
Reg. Stud., 22, 100593, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593,
2019.
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., and Allen, M. R.: Human contribution to the
European heatwave of 2003, Nature, 432, 610–614, 2004.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the
experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
93, 485–498, 2012.
Toreti, A., Belward, A., Perez-Dominguez, I., Naumann, G., Luterbacher, J.,
Cronie, O., Seguini, L., Manfron, G., Lopez-Lozano, R., Baruth, B., Van den
Berg, M., Dentener, F., Ceglar, A., Chatzopoulos, T., and Zampieri, M.: The
exceptional 2018 European water seesaw calls for action on adaptation,
Earth's Future, 7, 652–663, 2019.
Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Cammalleri, C., de Jager, A., Di
Ciollo, C., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Maetens, W., Magni, D., Masante, D.,
Mazzeschi, M., Niemeyer, S., and Spinoni, J.: Drought in Europe August 2022,
Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, https://doi.org/10.2760/264241,
JRC130493, 2022.
Trachte, K., Obregón, A., Bissolli, P., Kennedy, J. J., Parker, D. E.,
Trigo, R. M., and Barriopedr, D.: Europe [in “State of the Climate in
2011”], B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, S186–S191,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1, 2012.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Van Der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich,
J., Briffa, K. R., and Sheffield, J.: Global warming and changes in drought,
Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 17–22, 2014.
van der Linden, E. C., Haarsma, R. J., and van der Schrier, G.: Impact of climate model resolution on soil moisture projections in central-western Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-191-2019, 2019.
Van der Wiel, K., Lenderink, G., and De Vries, H.: Physical storylines of
future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate
modelling, Weather and Climate Extremes, p. 100350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100350, 2021.
Van der Wiel, K., Batelaan, T. J., and Wanders, N.: Large increases of
multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate, Clim. Dynam., 60, 1781–1800, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06373-3, 2023,
Van Garderen, L. and Mindlin, J.: A storyline attribution of the 2011/2012
drought in Southeastern South America, Weather, 77, 212–218,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4185, 2022.
Van Hussen, K., Van de Velde, I., Läkamp, R., Van der Kooij, S., and
Hekman, A.: Economische schade door droogte in 2018. Ecorys, Rotterdam, Technical Report; 55 pp., 2019.
Van Meijgaard, E., Van Ulft, L., Lenderink, G., de Roode, S., Wipfler, E.,
Boers, R., and Van Timmermans, R.: Refinement and application of a regional
atmospheric model for climate scenario calculations of western Europe,
Technical Report KVR 054/12, 46 pp., ISBN/EAN 978-90-8815-046-3, 2012.
Van Vliet, M. T. H., Ludwig, F., Zwolsman, J. J. G., Weedon, G. P., and
Kabat, P.: Global river temperatures and sensitivity to atmospheric warming
and changes in river flow, Water Resour. Res., 47, W02544,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009198, 2011.
Vautard, R., van Aalst, M., Boucher, O., et al.: Human contribution to the record-breaking June and July 2019 heatwaves in western Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094077, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3d4, 2020
Vogel, M. M., Zscheischler, J., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, 2018.
Vogel, M. M., Zscheischler, J., Wartenburger, R., Dee, D., and Seneviratne,
S. I.: Concurrent 2018 hot extremes across northern hemisphere due to
human-induced climate change, Earth's future, 7, 692–703, 2019.
Wehrli, K., Hauser, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, 2020.
WMCN-LCW: Droogtemonitor, Rijkswaterstaat, Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat, https://waterberichtgeving.rws.nl/owb/droogtemonitor, last access: 5
September 2022.
Wolff, E. and Van Vliet, M. T. H.: Impact of the 2018 drought on
pharmaceutical concentrations and general water quality of the Rhine and
Meuse rivers, STOTEN, 778, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146182,
2021.
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O.,
Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its
response to climate change, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 287–300,
2018.
Yevjevich, V.: An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts, Hydrology Paper No. 23, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 18 pp., 1967.
Yiou, P., Cattiaux, J., Faranda, D., Kadygrov, N., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Ribes, A., Robin, Y., Thao, S., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Vrac, M.: Analyses of the northern European summer heatwave of 2018, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, S35–S40, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0170.1, 2020
Zscheischler, J. and Fischer, E. M.: The record-breaking compound hot and
dry 2018 growing season in Germany, Weather Clim. Extremes, 29, 100270,
ISSN 2212-0947, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100270, 2020.
Zscheischler, J. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Dependence of drivers affects risks
associated with compound events, Sci. Adv., 3, e1700263, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700263 2017.
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C.,
Horton, R. M., Van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A.,
Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N. N., Thiery, W., and
Vignotto, E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nat. Rev.
Earth Env., 1, 333–347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z, 2020.
Executive editor
Droughts and associated heat waves threaten society and nature, as again demonstrated in this year's drought event in Europe. This study examines the impact of global warming on drought severity in west-central Europe by creating future analogues of present-day droughts. On the one hand, this approach allows the authors to investigate changes in droughts conditional on the present-day atmospheric circulation. On the other hand, the future drought analogues are directly linked to real-world events and their societal impact, which make the results very tangible and therewith useful for climate change communication to policy makers, decision makers as well as the broader public.
Droughts and associated heat waves threaten society and nature, as again demonstrated in this...
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint