Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 05 Apr 2023
| 05 Apr 2023
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) – UMR 8190 CNRS/Sorbonne Université/UVSQ, 78280 Guyancourt, France
CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
Christophe Lavaysse
CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy
Mathieu Vrac
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA Saclay l'Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Cyrille Flamant
Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) – UMR 8190 CNRS/Sorbonne Université/UVSQ, 78280 Guyancourt, France
Related authors
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Helene Brogniez, and Philippe Naveau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3481, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the representation of total column water vapor and total cloud cover in General Circulation Models, ERA5 reanalysis and satellite data records from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative. A new technique, called "multiresolution analysis," is applied to this evaluation, which enables an analysis of model behavior across different temporal frequencies, from daily to decadal scales, including subseasonal and seasonal variations.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.
Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 423–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning approaches are spreading rapidly in climate sciences. They are of great help in many practical situations where using the underlying equations is difficult because of the limitation in computational power. Here we use a systematic approach to investigate the limitations of the popular echo state network algorithms used to forecast the long-term behaviour of chaotic systems, such as the weather. Our results show that noise and intermittency greatly affect the performances.
Ségolène Crossouard, Soulivanh Thao, Thomas Dubos, Masa Kageyama, Mathieu Vrac, and Yann Meurdesoif
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1418, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Current atmospheric models are limited by the computational time required for physical processes, known as physical parameterizations. To address this, we developed neural network-based emulators to replace these parameterizations in the IPSL climate model, using a simplified aquaplanet setup. We found that incorporating some physical knowledge, such as latent variables, into the learning process can improve predictions.
Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Aurélien Ribes, Occitane Barbaux, and Philippe Naveau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1121, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We describe an improved method and the associated free licensed package ANKIALE (ANalysis of Klimate with bayesian Inference: AppLication to extreme Events) for estimating the statistics of temperature extremes. This method uses climate model simulations (including multiple scenarios simultaneously) to provide a prior of the real-world changes, constrained by the observations. The method and the tool are illustrated via an application to temperature over Europe until 2100, for four scenarios.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Stella Bourdin, Davide Faranda, and Mathieu Vrac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-252, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The tracking of Tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a matter of interest for the investigation of observed and simulated tropical cyclones. In this study, Random Forest (RF), a machine learning approach, is considered to track TCs. RF associates TC occurrence or absence to different atmospheric configurations. Compared to trackers found in the literature, it shows similar performance for tracking TCs, better control over false alarm, more flexibility and reveal key variables allowing to detect TCs.
Paul C. Astagneau, Raul R. Wood, Mathieu Vrac, Sven Kotlarski, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Bastien François, and Manuela I. Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3966, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
To study floods and droughts are likely to change in the future, we use climate projections from climate models. However, we first need to adjust the systematic biases of these projections at the catchment scale before using them in hydrological models. Our study compares statistical methods that can adjust these biases, but specifically for climate projections that enable a quantification of internal climate variability. We provide recommendations on the most appropriate methods.
Joséphine Schmutz, Mathieu Vrac, Bastien François, and Burak Bulut
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-461, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, Europe has faced severe hot and dry events affecting biodiversity, agriculture, and health. Understanding past significant variation in their occurrence is key for adaptation. This paper identifies emerging hotspots in Europe and North Africa. Since the 1970s, the Iberian Peninsula, Maghreb, and Central Europe have seen more frequent events, driven by rising temperature maxima, while Eastern Europe has experienced a decline due to changes in drought.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Helene Brogniez, and Philippe Naveau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3481, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the representation of total column water vapor and total cloud cover in General Circulation Models, ERA5 reanalysis and satellite data records from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative. A new technique, called "multiresolution analysis," is applied to this evaluation, which enables an analysis of model behavior across different temporal frequencies, from daily to decadal scales, including subseasonal and seasonal variations.
Tanguy Jonville, Maurus Borne, Cyrille Flamant, Juan Cuesta, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Christophe Lavaysse, Andreas Fink, and Peter Knippertz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3606, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical waves structure the atmosphere. Four types of tropical waves (ER, Kelvin, MRG-TD1, and MRG-TD2) are studied using filters, satellite measurements, and in situ data from the Clouds-Atmosphere Dynamics-Dust Interaction in West Africa (CADDIWA) campaign held in September 2021 in Cabo Verde. ER waves impact temperature and humidity above 2500 m, MRG-TD1 around 3500 m, and MRG-TD2 around 2000 m. Interactions between these waves favor tropical cyclone formation.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Daniele Zannoni, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Harald Sodemann, Iris Thurnherr, Cyrille Flamant, Patrick Chazette, Julien Totems, Martin Werner, and Myriam Raybaut
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3394, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
High resolution airborne observations reveal that mixing between the free troposphere and surface evapotranspiration flux primarly modulates the water vapor isotopic composition in the lower troposphere. Water vapor isotopes structure variations occur on the scale of 100s of m, underlying the utility of stable isotopes for studying microscale atmospheric dynamics. This study also provides the basis for better validation of water vapor isotopes remote sensing retrievals with surface observations.
Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme meteorological and climatological events properties are changing under human caused climate change. Extreme events attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogues method which compare the observed event to similar events in the past.
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel approach to compare Earth System Model output using a causality-based approach. The analysis of interactions between atmospheric, oceanic, and biogeochemical variables in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre highlights the dynamics of each model. This method reveals potential underlying causes of model differences, offering a tool for enhanced model evaluation and improved understanding of complex Earth system dynamics under past and future climates.
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the mechanisms that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Europe in a comparative framework. By analysing weather data, we found that long spells in Southwestern Europe are typically preceded by dry soil conditions and driven by multiple persistence-inducing mechanisms. In contrast, short spells occur in a more transient atmospheric situation and exhibit fewer drivers. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their prediction.
Denis Allard, Mathieu Vrac, Bastien François, and Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-102, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric variables from climate models often present biases relative to the past. In order to use these models to assess the impact of climate change on processes of interest, it is necessary to correct these biases. We tested several Multivariate Bias Correction Methods (MBCMs) for 5 physical variables that are input variables for 4 process models. We provide recommendations regarding the use of MBCMs when multivariate and time dependent processes are involved.
Mégane Ventura, Fabien Waquet, Isabelle Chiapello, Gérard Brogniez, Frédéric Parol, Frédérique Auriol, Rodrigue Loisil, Cyril Delegove, Luc Blarel, Oleg Dubovik, Marc Mallet, Cyrille Flamant, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for AMT
Short summary
Short summary
Biomass burning aerosols (BBA) from Central Africa, are transported above stratocumulus clouds. The absorption of solar energy by aerosols induce warming, altering the clouds dynamics. We developed an approach that combines polarimeter and lidar to quantify it. This methodology is assessed during the AEROCLO-SA campaign. To validate it, we used flux measurements acquired during aircraft loop descents. Major perspective is the generalization of this method to the global level.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Mathieu Vrac, Denis Allard, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Soulivanh Thao, and Lucas Schmutz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 735–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We aim to combine multiple global climate models (GCMs) to enhance the robustness of future projections. We introduce a novel approach, called "α pooling", aggregating the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the models into a CDF more aligned with historical data. The new CDFs allow us to perform bias adjustment of all the raw climate simulations at once. Experiments with European temperature and precipitation demonstrate the superiority of this approach over conventional techniques.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Proc. IAHS, 385, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the impact of climate change on the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) flows and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB). Several climate change projection data are use to simulate river flow under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Future projections show that AMF could increase with various magnitude but negligible shift in time across the VRB, while MAM could decrease with up to 14 days of delay in occurrence.
Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Marco Gaetani, Kerstin Schepanski, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4265–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the austral dry season, the atmospheric composition over southern Africa is dominated by biomass burning aerosols and terrigenous aerosols (so-called mineral dust). This study suggests that the radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols needs to be taken into account to properly forecast dust emissions in Namibia.
Maurus Borne, Peter Knippertz, Martin Weissmann, Benjamin Witschas, Cyrille Flamant, Rosimar Rios-Berrios, and Peter Veals
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 561–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the quality of Aeolus wind measurements over the tropical Atlantic. The results identified the accuracy and precision of the Aeolus wind measurements and the potential source of errors. For instance, the study revealed atmospheric conditions that can deteriorate the measurement quality, such as weaker laser signal in cloudy or dusty conditions, and confirmed the presence of an orbital-dependant bias. These results can help to improve the Aeolus wind measurement algorithm.
Gaëlle de Coëtlogon, Adrien Deroubaix, Cyrille Flamant, Laurent Menut, and Marco Gaetani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15507–15521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a numerical atmospheric model, we found that cooling sea surface temperatures along the southern coast of West Africa in July cause the “little dry season”. This effect reduces humidity and pollutant transport inland, potentially enhancing West Africa's synoptic and seasonal forecasting.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14643–14672, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable-water-vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Valerian Hahn, Ralf Meerkötter, Christiane Voigt, Sonja Gisinger, Daniel Sauer, Valéry Catoire, Volker Dreiling, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Stefan Kaufmann, Jonas Kleine, Peter Knippertz, Manuel Moser, Philip Rosenberg, Hans Schlager, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, and Jonathan Taylor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8515–8530, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8515-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During the DACCIWA campaign in West Africa, we found a 35 % increase in the cloud droplet concentration that formed in a polluted compared with a less polluted environment and a decrease of 17 % in effective droplet diameter. Radiative transfer simulations, based on the measured cloud properties, reveal that these low-level polluted clouds radiate only 2.6 % more energy back to space, compared with a less polluted cloud. The corresponding additional decrease in temperature is rather small.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Laurent Labbouz, Cyrille Flamant, and Alma Hodzic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8639–8658, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8639-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ground-based, spaceborne and rare airborne observations of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) during the AEROCLO-sA field campaign in 2017 are complemented with convection-permitting simulations with online trajectories. The results show that the radiative effect of the BBA accelerates the southern African easterly jet and generates upward motions that transport the BBAs to higher altitudes and farther southwest.
Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Patrick Chazette, Juan Cuesta, Stuart John Piketh, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 5701–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rivers of smoke extend from tropical southern Africa towards the Indian Ocean during the winter fire season, controlled by the interaction of tropical easterly waves, and westerly waves at mid latitudes. During the AEROCLO-sA field campaign in 2017, a river of smoke was directly observed over Namibia. In this paper, the evolution and atmospheric drivers of the river of smoke are described, and the role of a mid-latitude cut-off low in lifting the smoke to the upper troposphere is highlighted.
Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Julien Delanoë, Pierre Coutris, Jean-Claude Etienne, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Thierry André, Hubert Bellec, Alexandre Baron, Jean-François Bourdinot, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Aurélien Bourdon, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Christophe Caudoux, Patrick Chazette, Michel Cluzeau, Céline Cornet, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Dominique Duchanoy, Cyrille Flamant, Benjamin Fildier, Christophe Gourbeyre, Laurent Guiraud, Tetyana Jiang, Claude Lainard, Christophe Le Gac, Christian Lendroit, Julien Lernould, Thierry Perrin, Frédéric Pouvesle, Pascal Richard, Nicolas Rochetin, Kevin Salaün, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Seurat, Bjorn Stevens, Julien Totems, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Gilles Vergez, Jessica Vial, Leonie Villiger, and Raphaela Vogel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2021–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2021-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The French ATR42 research aircraft participated in the EUREC4A international field campaign that took place in 2020 over the tropical Atlantic, east of Barbados. We present the extensive instrumentation of the aircraft, the research flights and the different measurements. We show that the ATR measurements of humidity, wind, aerosols and cloudiness in the lower atmosphere are robust and consistent with each other. They will make it possible to advance understanding of cloud–climate interactions.
Moctar Dembélé, Mathieu Vrac, Natalie Ceperley, Sander J. Zwart, Josh Larsen, Simon J. Dadson, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Bettina Schaefli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change impacts on water resources in the Volta River basin are investigated under various global warming scenarios. Results reveal contrasting changes in future hydrological processes and water availability, depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with implications for floods and drought occurrence over the 21st century. These findings provide insights for the elaboration of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anneke Batenburg, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Cheikh Dione, Régis Dupuy, Valerian Hahn, Norbert Kalthoff, Fabienne Lohou, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Guillaume Siour, Paolo Tuccella, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3251–3273, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the summer monsoon in West Africa, pollutants emitted in urbanized areas modify cloud cover and precipitation patterns. We analyze these patterns with the WRF-CHIMERE model, integrating the effects of aerosols on meteorology, based on the numerous observations provided by the Dynamics-Aerosol-Climate-Interactions campaign. This study adds evidence to recent findings that increased pollution levels in West Africa delay the breakup time of low-level clouds and reduce precipitation.
Patrick Chazette, Alexandre Baron, and Cyrille Flamant
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1271–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Within the framework of the international EUREC4A project, horizontal lidar measurements were carried out over Barbados from the French research aircraft ATR-42. These measurements highlighted the strong heterogeneity of the aerosol field (mainly dust and biomass burning aerosols) and therefore of the associated optical properties. This heterogeneity varies according to meteorological conditions and could significantly modulate the climatic impact of aerosols trapped over the tropical Atlantic.
Yoann Robin and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new multivariate downscaling and bias correction approach called
time-shifted multivariate bias correction, which aims to correct temporal dependencies in addition to inter-variable and spatial ones. Our method is evaluated in a
perfect model experimentcontext where simulations are used as pseudo-observations. The results show a large reduction of the biases in the temporal properties, while inter-variable and spatial dependence structures are still correctly adjusted.
Marco Gaetani, Benjamin Pohl, Maria del Carmen Alvarez Castro, Cyrille Flamant, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16575–16591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16575-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
During the dry austral winter, biomass fires in tropical Africa emit large amounts of smoke in the atmosphere, with large impacts on climate and air quality. The study of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and smoke transport shows that midlatitude atmospheric disturbances may deflect the smoke from tropical Africa towards southern Africa. Understanding the distribution of the smoke in the region is crucial for climate modelling and air quality monitoring.
Jonas Hamperl, Clément Capitaine, Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt, Myriam Raybaut, Patrick Chazette, Julien Totems, Bruno Grouiez, Laurence Régalia, Rosa Santagata, Corinne Evesque, Jean-Michel Melkonian, Antoine Godard, Andrew Seidl, Harald Sodemann, and Cyrille Flamant
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6675–6693, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6675-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Laser active remote sensing of tropospheric water vapor is a promising technology for enhancing our understanding of processes governing the global hydrological cycle. We investigate the potential of a ground-based lidar to monitor the main water vapor isotopes at high spatio-temporal resolutions in the lower troposphere. Using a realistic end-to-end simulator, we show that high-precision measurements can be achieved within a range of 1.5 km, in mid-latitude or tropical environments.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Peyrillé, and Cyrille Flamant
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work assesses the forecast of the temperature over the Sahara, a key driver of the West African Monsoon, at a seasonal timescale. The seasonal models are able to reproduce the climatological state and some characteristics of the temperature during the rainy season in the Sahel. But, because of errors in the timing, the forecast skill scores are significant only for the first 4 weeks.
Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 423–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning approaches are spreading rapidly in climate sciences. They are of great help in many practical situations where using the underlying equations is difficult because of the limitation in computational power. Here we use a systematic approach to investigate the limitations of the popular echo state network algorithms used to forecast the long-term behaviour of chaotic systems, such as the weather. Our results show that noise and intermittency greatly affect the performances.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Ocean Sci., 17, 1011–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we explored design options for a future Atlantic-scale observational network enabling the release of carbon system estimates by combining data streams from various platforms. We used outputs of a physical–biogeochemical global ocean model at sites of real-world observations to reconstruct surface ocean pCO2 by applying a non-linear feed-forward neural network. The results provide important information for future BGC-Argo deployment, i.e. important regions and the number of floats.
Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Harald Sodemann, Julien Totems, Anne Monod, Elsa Dieudonné, Alexandre Baron, Andrew Seidl, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Pascal Doira, Amandine Durand, and Sylvain Ravier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10911–10937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10911-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10911-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To gain understanding on the vertical structure of atmospheric water vapour above mountain lakes and to assess its link to the isotopic composition of the lake water and small-scale dynamics, the L-WAIVE field campaign was conducted in the Annecy valley in the French Alps in June 2019. Based on a synergy between ground-based, boat-borne, and airborne measuring platforms, significant gradients of isotopic content have been revealed at the transitions to the lake and to the free troposphere.
Aurélien Chauvigné, Fabien Waquet, Frédérique Auriol, Luc Blarel, Cyril Delegove, Oleg Dubovik, Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Philippe Goloub, Rodrigue Loisil, Marc Mallet, Jean-Marc Nicolas, Frédéric Parol, Fanny Peers, Benjamin Torres, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8233–8253, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents aerosol above-cloud properties close to the Namibian coast from a combination of airborne passive remote sensing. The complete analysis of aerosol and cloud optical properties and their microphysical and radiative properties allows us to better identify the impacts of biomass burning emissions. This work also gives a complete overview of the key parameters for constraining climate models in case aerosol and cloud coexist in the troposphere.
Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Cyrille Flamant, Erik Doerflinger, Friedhelm Jansen, Romain Fages, Sandrine Bony, and Sabrina Schnitt
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2407–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements from a network of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers operated from the eastern Caribbean islands are used to monitor the total water vapour content in the atmosphere during the EUREC4A field campaign. These data help describe the moisture environment of mesoscale cloud patterns in the trade winds with high temporal sampling. They are also useful to assess the accuracy of collocated radiosonde measurements and numerical weather model reanalyses.
Pierre Bosser, Olivier Bock, Cyrille Flamant, Sandrine Bony, and Sabrina Speich
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1499–1517, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the framework of the EUREC4A campaign, water vapour measurements were retrieved over the tropical west Atlantic Ocean from GNSS data acquired from three research vessels (R/Vs Atalante, Maria S. Merian and Meteor). The retrievals from R/Vs Atalante and Meteor are shown to be of high quality unlike the results for the R/V Maria S. Merian. These ship-borne retrievals are intended to be used for the description and understanding of meteorological phenomena that occurred during the campaign.
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christophe Lavaysse, Mamadou Simina Drame, Geremy Panthou, and Amadou Thierno Gaye
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1051–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme wet and dry rainfall periods over Senegal provided by satellite, reanalyses, and ground observations are compared. Despite a spatial coherence of seasonal rainfall accumulation between all products, discrepancies are found at intra-seasonal timescales. All datasets highlight comparable seasonal cycles of dry and wet spells. Nevertheless, CHIRPS and TAMSAT are close to observations for the dry spells, whereas TRMM obtains the closest values of wet spells as regards the observations.
Patrick Chazette, Julien Totems, Alexandre Baron, Cyrille Flamant, and Sandrine Bony
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2919–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To characterize the trade-wind cumuli for climate change purposes, 20 ATR-42 flights were conducted over the tropical Atlantic, off the coast of Barbados from 23 January to 13 February 2020. These flights were conducted as part of the international EUREC4A (Elucidating the role of cloud–circulation coupling in climate) field campaign. A new sampling approach was applied, consisting in using a sidewards-staring lidar. The data are now made available to the international scientific community.
Marc Mallet, Fabien Solmon, Pierre Nabat, Nellie Elguindi, Fabien Waquet, Dominique Bouniol, Andrew Mark Sayer, Kerry Meyer, Romain Roehrig, Martine Michou, Paquita Zuidema, Cyrille Flamant, Jens Redemann, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13191–13216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents numerical simulations using two regional climate models to study the impact of biomass fire plumes from central Africa on the radiative balance of this region. The results indicate that biomass fires can either warm the regional climate when they are located above low clouds or cool it when they are located above land. They can also alter sea and land surface temperatures by decreasing solar radiation at the surface. Finally, they can also modify the atmospheric dynamics.
Mathieu Vrac and Soulivanh Thao
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5367–5387, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5367-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a multivariate bias correction (MBC) method to adjust the spatial and/or inter-variable properties of climate simulations, while also accounting for their temporal dependences (e.g., autocorrelations).
It consists on a method reordering the ranks of the time series according to their multivariate distance to a reference time series.
Results show that temporal correlations are improved while spatial and inter-variable correlations are still satisfactorily corrected.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, multivariate bias correction (MBC) methods designed to adjust climate simulations have been proposed. However, they use different approaches, leading potentially to different results. Therefore, this study intends to intercompare four existing MBC methods to provide end users with aid in choosing such methods for their applications. To do so, a wide range of evaluation criteria have been used to assess the ability of MBC methods to correct statistical properties of climate models.
Eric Pohl, Christophe Grenier, Mathieu Vrac, and Masa Kageyama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Existing approaches to quantify the emergence of climate change require several user choices that make these approaches less objective. We present an approach that uses a minimum number of choices and showcase its application in the extremely sensitive, permafrost-dominated region of eastern Siberia. Designed as a Python toolbox, it allows for incorporating climate model, reanalysis, and in situ data to make use of numerous existing data sources and reduce uncertainties in obtained estimates.
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2841–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2841-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
At subdaily resolution, rain intensity exhibits a strong variability in space and time due to the diversity of processes that produce rain (e.g., frontal storms, mesoscale convective systems and local convection). In this paper we explore a new method to simulate rain type time series conditional to meteorological covariates. Afterwards, we apply stochastic rain type simulation to the downscaling of precipitation of a regional climate model.
Florentin Breton, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Aglaé Jézéquel
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate North Atlantic weather seasonality over 1979–2100 by classifying year-round fields of 500 hPa geopotential height from one reanalysis dataset and 12 climate models. Generally, models have seasonal structures similar to the reanalyses. Historical winter (summer) conditions decrease (increase), due to uniform Z500 increase (i.e. uniform warming). However, relative to the increasing Z500 seasonal cycle, future seasonality (spatial patterns, seasonal cycle) appears almost stationary.
Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Frederic Burnet, Marc Mallet, Nicolas Maury, Aurélie Colomb, Pamela Dominutti, Joel Brito, Régis Dupuy, Karine Sellegri, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Cyrille Flamant, and Peter Knippertz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4735–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4735-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents aircraft measurements of aerosol optical properties over southern West Africa. We show that aerosol optical properties in the boundary layer were dominated by a persistent biomass burning loading from the Southern Hemisphere. Biomass burning aerosols were more light absorbing that those previously measured in other areas (Amazonia, North America). Our study suggests that lens-coated black carbon particles were the dominant absorber for these biomass burning aerosols.
Giulia Carella, Mathieu Vrac, Hélène Brogniez, Pascal Yiou, and Hélène Chepfer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Observations of relative humidity for ice clouds over the tropical oceans from a passive microwave sounder are downscaled by incorporating the high-resolution variability derived from simultaneous co-located cloud profiles from a lidar. By providing a method to generate pseudo-observations of relative humidity at high spatial resolution, this work will help revisit some of the current key barriers in atmospheric science.
Sophie L. Haslett, Jonathan W. Taylor, Mathew Evans, Eleanor Morris, Bernhard Vogel, Alima Dajuma, Joel Brito, Anneke M. Batenburg, Stephan Borrmann, Johannes Schneider, Christiane Schulz, Cyrielle Denjean, Thierry Bourrianne, Peter Knippertz, Régis Dupuy, Alfons Schwarzenböck, Daniel Sauer, Cyrille Flamant, James Dorsey, Ian Crawford, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15217–15234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Three aircraft datasets from the DACCIWA campaign in summer 2016 are used here to show there is a background mass of pollution present in the lower atmosphere in southern West Africa. We suggest that this likely comes from biomass burning in central and southern Africa, which has been carried into the region over the Atlantic Ocean. This would have a negative health impact on populations living near the coast and may alter the impact of growing city emissions on cloud formation and the monsoon.
Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Julien Totems, Marco Gaetani, Gwendoline Smith, Alexandre Baron, Xavier Landsheere, Karine Desboeufs, Jean-François Doussin, and Paola Formenti
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14979–15005, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14979-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14979-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Evolution of the vertical distribution and optical properties of aerosols in the free troposphere is analysed for the first time over the Namibian coast, a region where uncertainties on aerosol–cloud coupling in climate simulations are significant. The high variability of atmospheric aerosol composition is highlighted using a combination of ground-based, airborne and space-borne lidar. Aerosols are mainly transported from Angola, but part of the highest aerosol layer may come from South America.
Laurent Menut, Paolo Tuccella, Cyrille Flamant, Adrien Deroubaix, and Marco Gaetani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14657–14676, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol direct and indirect effects are studied over west Africa in the summer of 2016 using the coupled WRF-CHIMERE regional model including aerosol–cloud interaction parameterization. Sensitivity experiments are designed to gain insights into the impact of the aerosols dominating the atmospheric composition in southern west Africa. It is shown that the decrease of anthropogenic emissions along the coast has an impact on the mineral dust load over west Africa by increasing their emissions.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, Olivier Caumont, Alexis Doerenbecher, Eric Wattrelot, Patrick Moll, Hervé Bénichou, Dominique Puech, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Paolo Di Girolamo, Evelyne Richard, and Frédérique Saïd
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2657–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The AROME-WMED (western Mediterranean) model is a dedicated version of the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction AROME-France model that ran in real time during the first special observation period of HyMeX. Two reanalyses were performed after the campaign. This paper depicts the main differences between the real-time version and the benefits brought by both HyMeX reanalyses. The second reanalysis is found to be closer to observations than the previous AROME-WMED analyses.
Jonathan W. Taylor, Sophie L. Haslett, Keith Bower, Michael Flynn, Ian Crawford, James Dorsey, Tom Choularton, Paul J. Connolly, Valerian Hahn, Christiane Voigt, Daniel Sauer, Régis Dupuy, Joel Brito, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Thierry Bourriane, Cyrielle Denjean, Phil Rosenberg, Cyrille Flamant, James D. Lee, Adam R. Vaughan, Peter G. Hill, Barbara Brooks, Valéry Catoire, Peter Knippertz, and Hugh Coe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8503–8522, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8503-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level clouds cover a wide area of southern West Africa (SWA) and play an important role in the region's climate, reflecting sunlight away from the surface. We performed aircraft measurements of aerosols and clouds over SWA during the 2016 summer monsoon and found pollution, and polluted clouds, across the whole region. Smoke from biomass burning in Central Africa is transported to West Africa, causing a polluted background which limits the effect of local pollution on cloud properties.
Keun-Ok Lee, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Lionel Lacour, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7487–7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first study to investigate the potential benefit of stable water isotopes (SWIs) in the context of a heavy precipitation event in the Mediterranean. As such, our study provides a proof of concept of the usefulness of SWI data to understand the variety of origins and moisture processes associated with air masses feeding the convection over southern Italy.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, Mathieu Vrac, and Carlos Mejia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work is dedicated to a new model that reconstructs the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) over the global ocean on a monthly 1°×1° grid. The model is based on a feed-forward neural network and represents the nonlinear relationships between pCO2 and the ocean drivers. Reconstructed pCO2 has a satisfying accuracy compared to independent observational data and shows a good agreement in seasonal and interannual variability with three existing mapping methods.
Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Naveau, and Pascal Yiou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 773–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Bias correction methods are used to calibrate climate model outputs with respect to observations. In this article, a non-stationary, multivariate and stochastic bias correction method is developed based on optimal transport, accounting for inter-site and inter-variable correlations. Optimal transport allows us to construct a joint distribution that minimizes energy spent in bias correction. Our methodology is tested on precipitation and temperatures over 12 locations in southern France.
Adrien Deroubaix, Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Joel Brito, Cyrielle Denjean, Volker Dreiling, Andreas Fink, Corinne Jambert, Norbert Kalthoff, Peter Knippertz, Russ Ladkin, Sylvain Mailler, Marlon Maranan, Federica Pacifico, Bruno Piguet, Guillaume Siour, and Solène Turquety
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 473–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-473-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents a detailed analysis of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollutants over the Gulf of Guinea coastal region, using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign and modeling. The novelty is that we focus on how these two pollution sources are mixed and transported further inland. We show that during the day pollutants are accumulated along the coastline and transported northward as soon as the daytime convection in the atmospheric boundary layer ceases (16:00 UTC).
Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, and Florian Pappenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3297–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting droughts in Europe 1 month in advance would provide valuable information for decision makers. However, these extreme events are still difficult to predict. In this study, we develop forecasts based on predictors using the geopotential anomalies, generally more predictable than precipitation, derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that this approach outperforms the prediction using precipitation, especially in winter and in northern Europe, where 65 % of droughts are predicted.
Keun-Ok Lee, Cyrille Flamant, Fanny Duffourg, Véronique Ducrocq, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16845–16862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16845-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16845-2018, 2018
Lionel Benoit, Mathieu Vrac, and Gregoire Mariethoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5919–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5919-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a method for unsupervised classification of the space–time–intensity structure of weather radar images. The resulting classes are interpreted as rain types, i.e. pools of rain fields with homogeneous statistical properties. Rain types can in turn be used to define stationary periods for further stochastic rainfall modelling. The application of rain typing to real data indicates that non-stationarity can be significant within meteorological seasons, and even within a single storm.
Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, Evelyn Böhm, Bryan C. Lougheed, Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Lise Missiaen, Natalia Vazquez Riveiros, Pierre Burckel, Jörg Lippold, Helge W. Arz, Trond Dokken, François Thil, and Arnaud Dapoigny
Clim. Past, 14, 1315–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Recording the precise timing and sequence of events is essential for understanding rapid climate changes and improving climate model predictive skills. Here, we precisely assess the relative timing between ocean and atmospheric changes, both recorded in the same deep-sea core over the last 45 kyr. We show that decreased mid-depth water mass transport in the western equatorial Atlantic preceded increased rainfall over the adjacent continent by 120 to 980 yr, depending on the type of climate event.
Cyrille Flamant, Adrien Deroubaix, Patrick Chazette, Joel Brito, Marco Gaetani, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Gaëlle de Coetlogon, Laurent Menut, Aurélie Colomb, Cyrielle Denjean, Rémi Meynadier, Philip Rosenberg, Regis Dupuy, Pamela Dominutti, Jonathan Duplissy, Thierry Bourrianne, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Michel Ramonet, and Julien Totems
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12363–12389, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12363-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This work sheds light on the complex mechanisms by which coastal shallow circulations distribute atmospheric pollutants over the densely populated southern West African region. Pollutants of concern are anthropogenic emissions from coastal cities, as well as biomass burning aerosol and dust associated with long-range transport. The complex vertical distribution of aerosols over coastal southern West Africa is investigated using airborne observations and numerical simulations.
Guillaume Latombe, Ariane Burke, Mathieu Vrac, Guillaume Levavasseur, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563–2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
It is still unclear how climate conditions, and especially climate variability, influenced the spatial distribution of past human populations. Global climate models (GCMs) cannot simulate climate at sufficiently fine scale for this purpose. We propose a statistical method to obtain fine-scale climate projections for 15 000 years ago from coarse-scale GCM outputs. Our method agrees with local reconstructions from fossil and pollen data, and generates sensible climate variability maps over Europe.
Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3175–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3175-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a multivariate bias correction method named R2D2 to adjust both the 1d-distributions and inter-variable/site dependence structures of climate simulations in a high-dimensional context, while providing some stochasticity. R2D2 is tested on temperature and precipitation reanalyses and illustrated on future simulations. In both cases, R2D2 is able to correct the spatial and physical dependence, opening proper use of climate simulations for impact (e.g. hydrological) models.
Adjoua Moise Famien, Serge Janicot, Abe Delfin Ochou, Mathieu Vrac, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, and Thomas Noël
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 313–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method to provide bias-corrected data over Africa using WFDEI as a reference dataset. It is shown that CDF-t is very effective in removing the biases and reducing the high inter-GCM scattering. Differences with other bias-corrected GCM data are mainly due to the differences among the reference datasets, particularly for surface downwelling shortwave radiation, which has a significant impact in terms of simulated maize yields.
Laurent Menut, Cyrille Flamant, Solène Turquety, Adrien Deroubaix, Patrick Chazette, and Rémi Meynadier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2687–2707, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2687-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2687-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the DACCIWA project, the tropospheric chemical composition in large cities along the Gulf of Guinea is modelled using WRF and CHIMERE, with and without biomass burning emissions. The difference shows the net impact of fires on air quality in Lagos and Abidjan.
Joel Brito, Evelyn Freney, Pamela Dominutti, Agnes Borbon, Sophie L. Haslett, Anneke M. Batenburg, Aurelie Colomb, Regis Dupuy, Cyrielle Denjean, Frederic Burnet, Thierry Bourriane, Adrien Deroubaix, Karine Sellegri, Stephan Borrmann, Hugh Coe, Cyrille Flamant, Peter Knippertz, and Alfons Schwarzenboeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-757-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This work focuses on sources of submicron aerosol particles over southern West Africa (SWA). Results have shown that isoprene, a gas-phase compound of biogenic origin, is responsible for roughly 25 % of the organic aerosol (OA) loading, under most background or urban plumes alike. This fraction represents a lower estimate from the biogenic contribution in this fairly polluted region. This work sheds light upon the role of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on the pollution burden over SWA.
Adrien Deroubaix, Cyrille Flamant, Laurent Menut, Guillaume Siour, Sylvain Mailler, Solène Turquety, Régis Briant, Dmitry Khvorostyanov, and Suzanne Crumeyrolle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 445–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-445-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-445-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CO and PM2.5 are analyzed over the Guinean Gulf coastal region during the beginning of the 2006 West African monsoon. A biomass burning plume from Central Africa is observed since June at the Guinean coast. In June, the modeled anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations are higher than in May or July. An important part of the pollution emitted along the coastline is transported to the north at night within the surface layer and within the nocturnal low-level jet.
Christophe Lavaysse, Carmelo Cammalleri, Alessandro Dosio, Gerard van der Schrier, Andrea Toreti, and Jürgen Vogt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-temperature anomalies such as heat and cold waves may have strong impacts on human activities and health. Providing a robust operational system to monitor extreme-temperature anomalies in Europe, developed and validated in this study, is thus of prime importance. This work exposes the methodology and the climatology of these events. It also discusses the associated uncertainties according to the datasets and the methods used.
Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Adrien Deroubaix, Eleanor Morris, Flore Tocquer, Mat J. Evans, Cyrille Flamant, Marco Gaetani, Christophe Lavaysse, Celine Mari, John H. Marsham, Rémi Meynadier, Abalo Affo-Dogo, Titike Bahaga, Fabien Brosse, Konrad Deetz, Ridha Guebsi, Issaou Latifou, Marlon Maranan, Philip D. Rosenberg, and Andreas Schlueter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10893–10918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10893-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In June–July 2016 DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa), a large, EU-funded European–African project, organised an international field campaign in densely populated southern West Africa, including measurements from ground sites, research aircraft, weather balloons and urban sites. This paper gives an overview of the atmospheric evolution during this period focusing on meteorological (precipitation, cloudiness, winds) and composition (gases, particles) aspects.
Jean-Lionel Lacour, Cyrille Flamant, Camille Risi, Cathy Clerbaux, and Pierre-François Coheur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9645–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9645-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9645-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present temporal and spatial δD distributions derived from IASI obtained above the North Atlantic in the vicinity of West Africa. We show that the seasonality of δD in the North Atlantic is closely associated with the influence of the Saharan heat low (SHL). We provide an interpretation of the temporal and spatial variations in δD and show that the interactions between the large-scale subsidence, the ITCZ, and the SHL can be disentangled thanks to the added information contained in δD.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Vassiliki Kotroni, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Martina Klose, Cyrille Flamant, and Theodore M. Giannaros
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2925–2945, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2925-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2925-2017, 2017
Emanuele Bevacqua, Douglas Maraun, Ingrid Hobæk Haff, Martin Widmann, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2701-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a conceptual model to quantify the risk of compound events (CEs), i.e. extreme impacts to society which are driven by statistically dependent climatic variables. Based on this model we study compound floods, i.e. joint storm surge and high river level, in Ravenna (Italy). The model includes meteorological predictors which (1) provide insight into the physical processes underlying CEs, as well as into the temporal variability, and (2) allow us to statistically downscale CEs.
Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Philippe Naveau, Frederike E. L. Otto, Robert Vautard, and Mathieu Vrac
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
Claudia Volosciuk, Douglas Maraun, Mathieu Vrac, and Martin Widmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1693-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
For impact modeling, infrastructure design, or adaptation strategy planning, high-quality climate data on the point scale are often demanded. Due to the scale gap between gridbox and point scale and biases in climate models, we combine a statistical bias correction and a stochastic downscaling model and apply it to climate model-simulated precipitation. The method performs better in summer than in winter and in winter best for mild winter climate (Mediterranean) and worst for continental winter.
Jérôme Pernin, Mathieu Vrac, Cyril Crevoisier, and Alain Chédin
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-115-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we propose a classification methodology of various space-time atmospheric datasets into discrete air mass groups homogeneous in temperature and humidity through a probabilistic point of view: both the classification process and the data are probabilistic. Unlike conventional classification algorithms, this methodology provides the probability of belonging to each class as well as the corresponding uncertainty, which can be used in various applications.
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Cyrille Flamant, Thibaut Dauhut, Cécile Kocha, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Chistophe Lavaysse, Fabien Marnas, Mohamed Mokhtari, Jacques Pelon, Irene Reinares Martínez, Kerstin Schepanski, and Pierre Tulet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6977–6995, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6977-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6977-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Fennec field campaign conducted in June 2011 led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer under the influence of the heat low. In addition to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Vassiliki Kotroni, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Martina Klose, Cyrille Flamant, and Theodore M. Giannaros
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-307, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-307, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Benjamin Grouillet, Denis Ruelland, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Mathieu Vrac
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1031–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1031-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This original paper provides a guideline to select statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) in climate change impact studies (CCIS) to minimize uncertainty from downscaling. Three SDMs were applied to NCEP reanalysis and 2 GCM data values. We then analyzed the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the various downscaled data via 5 hydrological indicators representing the main features of the hydrograph. Our results enable selection of the appropriate SDMs to be used to build climate scenarios.
C. Flamant, J.-P. Chaboureau, P. Chazette, P. Di Girolamo, T. Bourrianne, J. Totems, and M. Cacciani
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12231–12249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12231-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12231-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the direct radiative impact of an intense African dust plume on orographic precipitation in the western Mediterranean in the fall of 2012 using high-resolution simulations from a convection permitting mesoscale model validated against measurements acquired during the first special observation period of HyMeX. We show that the dust's direct radiative effect in such a dynamical environment is not sufficient to impact 24h of accumulated rainfall over the Cevennes in the dust simulation.
C. L. Ryder, J. B. McQuaid, C. Flamant, P. D. Rosenberg, R. Washington, H. E. Brindley, E. J. Highwood, J. H. Marsham, D. J. Parker, M. C. Todd, J. R. Banks, J. K. Brooke, S. Engelstaedter, V. Estelles, P. Formenti, L. Garcia-Carreras, C. Kocha, F. Marenco, H. Sodemann, C. J. T. Allen, A. Bourdon, M. Bart, C. Cavazos-Guerra, S. Chevaillier, J. Crosier, E. Darbyshire, A. R. Dean, J. R. Dorsey, J. Kent, D. O'Sullivan, K. Schepanski, K. Szpek, J. Trembath, and A. Woolley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8479–8520, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8479-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8479-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of the Saharan atmosphere and of atmospheric mineral dust are lacking but are vital to our understanding of the climate of this region and their impacts further afield. Novel observations were made by the Fennec climate programme during June 2011 and 2012 using ground-based, remote sensing and airborne platforms. Here we describe the airborne observations and the contributions they have made to furthering our understanding of the Saharan climate system.
C. Lavaysse, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3273–3286, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the predictability of meteorological droughts over Europe 1 month in advance using ensemble prediction systems.
It has been shown that, on average and using the most relevant method, 40 % of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted, with less than 25 % false alarms.
This study is a reference for other studies that are motivated to improving the drought forecasting.
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Insights into thunderstorm characteristics from geostationary lightning jump and dive observations
The unique features in the 4 d widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Is considering runs (in)consistency so useless for weather forecasting?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate connected tropical cyclone event sets globally
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm Intensification from Mountains to Plains
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1751–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1751-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jumps (LJs) and lightning dives (LDs) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature characteristics similar to severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail, or tornadoes.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the most extreme episodes globally during that year. The extreme rainfall was significantly underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and economic losses. We examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall based on simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cited articles
Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., and Sobel, A. H.: An empirical model relating US monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 7, 226–243, 2015. a
Anderson, B. G. and Bell, M. L.: Weather-Related Mortality, Epidemiology, 20, 205–213, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318190ee08, 2009. a
August, E. F.: Ueber die Berechnung der Expansivkraft des Wasserdunstes, Ann. Phys., 89, 122–137, https://doi.org/10.1002/andp.18280890511, 1828. a
Batté, L., Ardilouze, C., and Déqué, M.: Forecasting West African Heat Waves at Subseasonal and Seasonal Time Scales, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 889–907, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0211.1, 2018. a, b
Beniston, M., Stoffel, M., and Guillet, S.: Comparing observed and hypothetical climates as a means of communicating to the public and policymakers: The case of European heatwaves, Environ. Sci. Policy, 67, 27–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.11.008, 2017. a
Bonavita, M., Hólm, E., Isaksen, L., and Fisher, M.: The evolution of the ECMWF hybrid data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 287–303, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2652, 2016. a
Braga, A. L. F., Zanobetti, A., and Schwartz, J.: The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities, Environ. Health Persp., 110, 859–863, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.02110859, 2002. a
Buck, A. L.: New equations for computing vapor pressure and enhancement factor, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 20, 1527–1532, 1981. a
Ceccherini, G., Russo, S., Ameztoy, I., Marchese, A. F., and Carmona-Moreno, C.: Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 115–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017, 2017. a, b
Charney, J. G. and DeVore, J. G.: Multiple flow equilibria in the atmosphere and blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1205–1216, 1979. a
Coughlan, M.: A comparative climatology of blocking action in the two hemispheres, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 31, 3–13, 1983. a
Courtier, P., Andersson, E., Heckley, W., Vasiljevic, D., Hamrud, M., Hollingsworth, A., Rabier, F., Fisher, M., and Pailleux, J.: The ECMWF implementation of three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-Var). I: Formulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 1783–1807, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712455002, 1998. a
Di Napoli, C., Barnard, C., Prudhomme, C., Cloke, H. L., and Pappenberger, F.: ERA5-HEAT: A global gridded historical dataset of human thermal comfort indices from climate reanalysis, Geosci. Data J., 8, 2–10, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.102, 2021. a
Dosio, A.: Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models, Clim. Dynam., 49, 493–519, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5, 2017. a
Dosio, A., Mentaschi, L., Fischer, E. M., and Wyser, K.: Extreme heat waves under 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 054006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827, 2018. a
Eyring, V., Gillett, N. P., Achutarao, K., Barimalala, R., Barreiro Parrillo, M., Bellouin, N., Cassou, C., Durack, P., Kosaka, Y., McGregor, S., Min, S., Morgenstern, O., and Sun, Y.: Human Influence on the Climate System, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, V., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, https://elib.dlr.de/144265/ (last access: 4 April 2023), 2021. a
Fontaine, B., Janicot, S., and Monerie, P.-A.: Recent changes in air temperature, heat waves occurrences, and atmospheric circulation in Northern Africa, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 8536–8552, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50667, 2013. a, b
Fouillet, A., Rey, G., Laurent, F., Pavillon, G., Bellec, S., Guihenneuc-Jouyaux, C., Clavel, J., Jougla, E., and Hémon, D.: Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France, Int. Arch. Occ. Env. Hea., 80, 16–24, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-006-0089-4, 2006. a
Gasparrini, A. and Armstrong, B.: The impact of heat waves on mortality, Epidemiology, 22, 68–73, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181fdcd99, 2011. a, b
Gelaro, R., McCarty, W., Suárez, M. J., Todling, R., Molod, A., Takacs, L., Randles, C. A., Darmenov, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Reichle, R., Wargan, K., Coy, L., Cullather, R., Draper, C., Akella, S., Buchard, V., Conaty, A., da Silva, A. M., Gu, W., Kim, G.-K., Koster, R., Lucchesi, R., Merkova, D., Nielsen, J. E., Partyka, G., Pawson, S., Putman, W., Rienecker, M., Schubert, S. D., Sienkiewicz, M., and Zhao, B.: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), J. Climate, 30, 5419–5454, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1, 2017. a
Gensini, V. A., Mote, T. L., and Brooks, H. E.: Severe-thunderstorm reanalysis environments and collocated radiosonde observations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 53, 742–751, 2014. a
Gleixner, S., Demissie, T., and Diro, G. T.: Did ERA5 improve temperature and precipitation reanalysis over East Africa?, Atmosphere, 11, 996, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090996, 2020. a
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_slv_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly,Time-Averaged,Single-Level,Assimilation,Single-Level Diagnostics V5.12.4, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/VJAFPLI1CSIV, 2015. a
Graham, R. M., Hudson, S. R., and Maturilli, M.: Improved performance of ERA5 in Arctic gateway relative to four global atmospheric reanalyses, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 6138–6147, 2019. a
Guigma, K. H., Todd, M., and Wang, Y.: Characteristics and thermodynamics of Sahelian heatwaves analysed using various thermal indices, Clim. Dynam., 55, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05438-5, 2020. a, b, c, d
Hajat, S., Kovats, R. S., and Lachowycz, K.: Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales: who is at risk?, Occup. Environ. Med., 64, 93–100, https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2006.029017, 2007. a
Hartmann, D. L., Tank, A. M. K., Rusticucci, M., Alexander, L. V., Brönnimann, S., Charabi, Y. A. R., Dentener, F. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Easterling, D. R., Kaplan, A., Soden, B. J., Thorne, P. W., Wild, M., and Zhai, P. M.: Observations: atmosphere and surface, in: Climate change 2013 the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 159–254, 2013. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023. a
Huynen, M. M., Martens, P., Schram, D., Weijenberg, M. P., and Kunst, A. E.: The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population, Environ. Health Persp., 109, 463–470, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.01109463, 2001. a
King, A. T. and Kennedy, A. D.: North American supercell environments in atmospheric reanalyses and RUC-2, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 71–92, 2019. a
Kovats, R. S. and Hajat, S.: Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review, Annu. Rev. Publ. Health, 29, 41–55, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843, 2008. a
Largeron, Y., Guichard, F., Roehrig, R., Couvreux, F., and Barbier, J.: The April 2010 North African heatwave: when the water vapor greenhouse effect drives nighttime temperatures, Clim. Dynam., 54, 3879–3905, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05204-7, 2020. a, b, c
Lorenzo, N., Díaz-Poso, A., and Royé, D.: Heatwave intensity on the Iberian Peninsula: Future climate projections, Atmos. Res., 258, 105655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105655, 2021. a
Loughnan, M.: Heatwaves are silent killers, Geodate, 27, 7–10, 2014. a
Magnus, G.: Versuche über die Spannkräfte des Wasserdampfs, Annalen der Physik, 137, 225–247, https://doi.org/10.1002/andp.18441370202, 1844. a
Murari, K. K. and Ghosh, S.: Future Heat Wave Projections and Impacts, in:
Climate Change Signals and Response: A Strategic Knowledge Compendium for
India, edited by: Venkataraman, C., Mishra, T., Ghosh, S., and Karmakar, S.,
Springer, 91–107, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0280-0_6, 2019. a
Mutiibwa, D., Vavrus, S. J., McAfee, S. A., and Albright, T. P.: Recent spatiotemporal patterns in temperature extremes across conterminous United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 7378–7392, 2015. a
Ngoungue Langue, C. G., Lavaysse, C., Vrac, M., Peyrillé, P., and Flamant, C.: Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-893-2021, 2021. a, b
Oueslati, B., Pohl, B., Moron, V., Rome, S., and Janicot, S.: Characterization of Heat Waves in the Sahel and Associated Physical Mechanisms, J. Climate, 30, 3095–3115, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0432.1, 2017. a, b
Pandis, N.: The chi-square test, Am. J. Orthod. Dentofac., 150, 898–899, 2016. a
Perkins, S. E.: A review on the scientific understanding of heatwaves—Their measurement, driving mechanisms, and changes at the global scale, Atmos. Res., 164–165, 242–267, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.014, 2015. a, b, c, d
Perkins, S. E. and Alexander, L. V.: On the Measurement of Heat Waves, J. Climate, 26, 4500–4517, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1, 2013. a, b, c
Perkins, S. E., Alexander, L. V., and Nairn, J. R.: Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053361, 2012. a, b, c
Ramon, J., Lledó, L., Torralba, V., Soret, A., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: What global reanalysis best represents near-surface winds?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Society, 145, 3236–3251, 2019. a
Robinson, P. J.: On the Definition of a Heat Wave, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 40, 762–775, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<0762:OTDOAH>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Rocklöv, J., Forsberg, B., Ebi, K., and Bellander, T.: Susceptibility to mortality related to temperature and heat and cold wave duration in the population of Stockholm County, Sweden, Global Health Action, 7, 22737, https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.22737, 2014. a
Russo, S., Marchese, A. F., Sillmann, J., and Immé, G.: When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 054016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054016, 2016. a, b, c
Shafiei Shiva, J., Chandler, D. G., and Kunkel, K. E.: Localized Changes in Heat Wave Properties Across the United States, Earth's Future, 7, 300–319, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001085, 2019. a
Shaposhnikov, D., Revich, B., Bellander, T., Bedada, G. B., Bottai, M., Kharkova, T., Kvasha, E., Lezina, E., Lind, T., Semutnikova, E., and Pershagen, G.: Mortality Related to Air Pollution with the Moscow Heat Wave and Wildfire of 2010, Epidemiology, 25, 359–364, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000090, 2014. a
Smith, T. T., Zaitchik, B. F., and Gohlke, J. M.: Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends, Climatic Change, 118, 811–825,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0659-2, 2013. a
Steadman, R. G.: The Assessment of Sultriness. Part I: A Temperature-Humidity
Index Based on Human Physiology and Clothing Science, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 18, 861–873, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018<0861:TAOSPI>2.0.CO;2, 1979a. a, b
Steadman, R. G.: A universal scale of apparent temperature, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 23, 1674–1687, 1984. a
Stefanon, M., D'Andrea, F., and Drobinski, P.: Heatwave classification over
Europe and the Mediterranean region, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014023, 2012. a
Stull, R.: Wet-Bulb Temperature from Relative Humidity and Air Temperature, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 50, 2267–2269, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0143.1, 2011. a
Tan, J., Zheng, Y., Tang, X., Guo, C., Li, L., Song, G., Zhen, X., Yuan, D., Kalkstein, A. J., Li, F., and Chen, H.: The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai, Int. J. Biometeorol., 54, 75–84, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0256-x, 2010. a
Taszarek, M., Brooks, H. E., Czernecki, B., Szuster, P., and Fortuniak, K.: Climatological aspects of convective parameters over Europe: A comparison of ERA-Interim and sounding data, J. Climate, 31, 4281–4308, 2018. a
Tippett, M. K., Sobel, A. H., Camargo, S. J., and Allen, J. T.: An empirical relation between US tornado activity and monthly environmental parameters, J. Climate, 27, 2983–2999, 2014. a
Wang, P., Tang, J., Sun, X., Liu, J., and Juan, F.: Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project, Clim. Dynam., 52, 799–818, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4167-6, 2019. a
Wehner, M., Castillo, F., and Stone, D.: The impact of moisture and temperature on human health in heat waves, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science, Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.58, 2017.
a
Wu, W.-S., Purser, R. J., and Parrish, D. F.: Three-dimensional variational analysis with spatially inhomogeneous covariances, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 2905–2916, 2002. a
Yu, S., Tett, S. F. B., Freychet, N., and Yan, Z.: Changes in regional wet heatwave in Eurasia during summer (1979–2017), Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 064094, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0745, 2021. a, b
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint