Articles | Volume 23, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 16 Mar 2023
| 16 Mar 2023
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Technical
University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany
Nivedita Sairam
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Liang Emlyn Yang
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), 80333 Munich, Germany
Matthias Garschagen
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), 80333 Munich, Germany
Heidi Kreibich
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Yamile Villafani, Heiko Apel, Laurens J. N. Oostwegel, Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh, Hong Quan Nguyen, Nigel K. Downes, Andrea Cominola, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-850, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding is an increasing threat in fast-growing cities, disrupting daily life, damaging homes, and raising disease risks from contaminated water. In Can Tho City, Vietnam, this study estimates household financial damage and the spread of harmful pathogens in floodwaters, then combines these impacts to identify neighborhoods at greatest risk. The results help planners target protection and support where it is most needed.
Ravikumar Guntu, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, Meike Müller, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 163–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-163-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-163-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 flood in Germany caused severe damage to companies, with over half reporting losses above € 100 000. Using probabilistic models, we identify key factors driving direct damage and business interruption. Water depth, flow velocity and company exposure were key factors, but preparedness played a crucial role. Companies that took good precaution recovered faster. Our findings stress the value of early warnings and risk communication to reduce damage from unprecedented flood events.
Nivedita Sairam and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 119–130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-119-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-119-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlights gaps in disaster risk assessments, particularly regarding disease outbreaks after natural hazards. It calls for: (1) learning from compound risk models to understand disaster and disease probabilities, (2) including health metrics in risk frameworks, and (3) improving data and modeling for health impacts. The authors propose a research agenda to enhance disaster risk management.
Apoorva Singh, Ravikumar Guntu, Nivedita Sairam, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Anna Buch, Melanie Fischer, Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 103–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-103-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-103-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We develop novel probabilistic models to estimate flash flood losses of companies and households in Germany. Using multiple flash flood events, we identify key drivers of flash floods loss. FLEMO flash model reveals that for companies, the effectiveness of emergency measures is crucial in mitigating losses. In contrast, household benefit more from knowledge about emergency action, suggesting adaptation strategies can effectively reduce flash flood losses.
Aaron Buhrmann, Cecilia I. Nievas, Nivedita Sairam, James E. Daniell, Heidi Kreibich, and Seth Bryant
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5172, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research lays the groundwork for the next generation of disaster risk modelling by improving how building-level value and use are estimated across Germany. By testing multiple data sources and methods, we identify a transparent, adaptable approach that enhances forecasts of damage and recovery—helping protect lives, property, and communities.
Alina Bill-Weilandt, Nivedita Sairam, Dennis Wagenaar, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, Perrine Hamel, and David Lallemant
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3706, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding is a major cause of agricultural loss globally. We introduce a framework for developing and evaluating flood damage models for crops. The study presents the most comprehensive review of such models for rice to date and offers practical guidance on model selection and expected errors when transferring models across regions. We provide models and lookup tables that can be used in flood risk assessments in rice-producing regions.
Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Nivedita Sairam, Lukas Schoppa, Le Thanh Sang, Do Ly Hoai Tan, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2845–2861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2845-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2845-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) faces severe flood risks from climatic and socio-economic changes, requiring effective adaptation solutions. Flood loss estimation is crucial, but advanced probabilistic models accounting for key drivers and uncertainty are lacking. This study presents a probabilistic flood loss model with a feature selection paradigm for HCMC’s residential sector. Experiments using new survey data from flood-affected households demonstrate the model's superior performance.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2437–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenue from micro-businesses (shop houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding are not modelled. Business turnover, building age, and water depth were found to be the main drivers of flood losses of micro-businesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (non-parametric Bayesian networks) that estimate flood losses of micro-businesses. The results help with flood risk management and adaption decision making for micro-businesses.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Siying Chen, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Liang Emlyn Yang
Clim. Past, 20, 2287–2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used 1802 drought and 1977 famine records from historical documents to reconstruct the spatial–temporal progression of the Chongzhen drought (1627–1644) in China and its impacts. We advance this research by reconstructing the annual spatial patterns and regional series of drought; demonstrating drought as the primary factor triggering famine; and identifying the transmission pathway of the drought's impacts and how social factors, especially human responses, regulated these impacts.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Seth Bryant, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 386, 181–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study found that simplifying data in flood risk models can introduce errors. We tested 344 damage functions and found errors up to 40 % of the total asset value. This means large-scale flood risk assessments may have significant errors due to the modelling approach. Our research highlights the need for more attention to data aggregation in flood risk models.
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A new algorithm has been developed to quickly produce high-resolution flood maps. It is faster and more accurate than current methods and is available as open-source scripts. This can help communities better prepare for and mitigate flood damages without expensive modelling.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Brunella Bonaccorso, Carmelo Cammalleri, Athanasios Loukas, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1857–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022, 2022
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Valeria Cigala, Giulia Roder, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 85–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-85-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Non-male scientists constitute a minority in the geoscience professional environment, and they are underrepresented in disaster risk reduction planning. So far the international agenda has failed to effectively promote gender inclusion in disaster policy, preventing non-male scientists from career development and recognition. Here we share the thoughts, experiences, and priorities of women and non-binary scientists as a starting point to expand the discourse and promote intersectional research.
Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dams are an important element of water resources management. Data about dams are crucial for practitioners, scientists, and policymakers. We present the most comprehensive open-access dam inventory for Germany to date. The inventory combines multiple sources of information. It comprises 530 dams with information on name, location, river, start year of construction and operation, crest length, dam height, lake area, lake volume, purpose, dam structure, and building characteristics.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., de Roo, A., Salamon, P., Wyser, K., and Feyen, L.: Global projections of 360 river flood risk in a warmer world, Earths Future, 5, 171–182,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485, 2017.
Ansari, M. S.: Protection Motivation of Flood Prone Households in
North-Central Bangladesh, MSc thesis, Wageningen University, the Netherlands, https://edepot.wur.nl/463593 (last access: 14 March 2023), 2018.
Babcicky, P. and Seebauer, S.: Unpacking Protection Motivation Theory:
evidence for a separate protective and non-protective route in private flood
mitigation behavior, J. Risk Res., 22, 1503–1521,
https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2018.1485175, 2019.
Bamberg, S., Masson, T., Brewitt, K., and Nemetschek, N.: Threat, coping and
flood prevention – A meta-analysis, J. Environ. Psychol.,
54, 116–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2017.08.001, 2017.
Barendrecht, M. H., Sairam, N., Cumiskey, L., Metin, A. D., Holz, F.,
Priest, S. J., and Kreibich, H.: Needed: A systems approach to improve flood
risk mitigation through private precautionary measures, Water Security, 11,
100080, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100080, 2020.
Block, L. G. and Keller, P. A.: Beyond protection motivation: An
integrative theory of health appeals, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol.,
28, 1584–1608, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1998.tb01691.x, 1998.
Bočkarjova, M., van der Veen, A., and Geurts, P. A. T. M.: A PMT-TTM
model of protective motivation for flood danger in the Netherlands, ITC Working Papers Series – Paper 3, University of Twente, ISBN 978-90-6164-279-4, 2009.
Botzen, W. J. W., Deschenes, O., and Sanders, M.: The economic impacts of
natural disasters: A review of models and empirical studies, Rev. Env. Econ. Policy, 13, 167–188, https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez004, 2019a.
Botzen, W. J. W., Kunreuther, H., Czajkowski, J., and de Moel, H.: Adoption
of Individual Flood Damage Mitigation Measures in New York City: An
Extension of Protection Motivation Theory, Risk Anal., 39,
2143–2159, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13318, 2019b.
Bubeck, P., Wouter Botzen, W. J., Laudan, J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and
Thieken, A. H.: Insights into Flood-Coping Appraisals of Protection
Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France, Risk
Anal., 38, 1239–1257, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12938, 2018.
Cao, A., Esteban, M., Valenzuela, V. P. B., Onuki, M., Takagi, H., Thao, N.
D., and Tsuchiya, N.: Future of Asian Deltaic Megacities under sea level
rise and land subsidence: current adaptation pathways for Tokyo, Jakarta,
Manila, and Ho Chi Minh City, Curr. Opin. Env. Sust., 50, 87–97, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2021.02.010, 2021.
Chinh, D. T., Bubeck, P., Dung, N. V., and Kreibich, H.: The 2011 flood
event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness, response, damage and recovery of
private households and small businesses, Disasters, 40, 753–778,
https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12171, 2016.
Du, S., Scussolini, P., Ward, P. J., Zhang, M., Wen, J., Wang, L., Koks, E.,
Diaz-Loaiza, A., Gao, J., Ke, Q., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Hard or soft flood
adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai, Global
Environ. Chang., 61, 102037, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102037, 2020.
Duffy, C., Braun, A., and Hochschild, V.: Surface Subsidence in Urbanized
Coastal Areas: PSI Methods Based on Sentinel-1 for Ho Chi Minh City, Remote
Sens., 12, 4130, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12244130, 2020.
FEMA: Selecting Appropriate Mitigation Measures for Floodprone Structures, https://www.wbdg.org/FFC/DHS/fema551.pdf (last access: 14 March 2023), 2007.
Garschagen, M.: Risky Change? Vulnerability and Adaptation between Climate
Change and Transformation Dynamics in Can Tho City, Vietnam, Steiner,
Stuttgart, 432 pp., ISBN 978-3-515-10876-8, 2014.
Garschagen, M.: Risky Change? Vietnam's Urban Flood Risk Governance between
Climate Dynamics and Transformation, Pac. Aff., 88, 599–621,
https://doi.org/10.5509/2015883599, 2015.
Gebrehiwot, T. and van der Veen, A.: Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why
Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?,
Environ. Manage., 55, 588–602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0415-7, 2015.
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences: Flood Damage Database HOWAS 21, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, https://doi.org/10.1594/GFZ.SDDB.HOWAS21, 2021.
Grothmann, T. and Reusswig, F.: People at risk of flooding: Why some
residents take precautionary action while others do not, Nat. Hazards,
38, 101–120, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8604-6, 2006.
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J.: Future
flood losses in major coastal cities, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 802–806, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1979, 2013.
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J: The Elements of
Statistical Learning, Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, in: Springer
Series in Statistics, 2nd edn., Springer, New York, NY, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7, 2008.
Ji, T., Wei, H. H., Sim, T., Yang, L. E., and Scheffran, J.: Disaggregated
validation of disaster-resilience indicators using household survey data: A
case study of Hong Kong, Sustain. Cities Soc., 67, 102726, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102726, 2021.
Khoi, D. N. and Trang, H. T.: Analysis of changes in precipitation and
extremes events in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Procedia Engineer., 142,
229–235, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.02.036, 2016.
Nguyen, M. T., Sebesvari, Z., Souvignet, M., Bachofer, F., Braun, A.,
Garschagen, M., Schinkel, U., Yang, L. E., Nguyen, L. H. K., Hochschild, V.,
Assmann, A., and Hagenlocher, M.: Understanding and assessing flood risk in
Vietnam: Current status, persisting gaps, and future directions, J.
Flood Risk Manage., 14, e12689, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12689, 2021.
Okayo, J., Odera, P., and Omuterema, S.: Socio-economic characteristics of
the community that determine ability to uptake precautionary measures to
mitigate flood disaster in Kano Plains, Kisumu County, Kenya, Geoenviron.
Disasters, 2, 26, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-015-0034-5, 2015.
Paul, S. K. and Hossain, M. N.: People's Perception about Flood Disaster
Management in Bangladesh: A Case Study on the Chalan Beel Area, Stamford J.
Environ. Hum. Habitat, 2, 72–86, 2013.
Phi, H. L.: Climate Change and Urban Flooding in Ho Chi Minh City, Third
Conference on Climate and Water, 3–6 September 2007, Helsinki, Finland, Finnish Environment Institute, 194–199, ISBN 978-952-11-2790-8, 2007.
Poussin, J. K., Botzen, W. J. W., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Factors of Influence on Flood Damage Mitigation Behaviour by Households, Environ. Sci. Policy, 40, 69-77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.01.013, 2014.
Rogers, W. R.: Cognitive and physiological processes in fear appeals and
attitude change: a revised theory of protection motivation, Social
Psychophysiology: A Sourcebook, Guilford Publications, 153–177,
ISBN 9780898626261, 1983.
Scussolini, P., Tran, T. T. van, Koks, E., Diaz-Loaiza, A., Ho, P. L., and
Lasage, R.: Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: A Multidisciplinary Analysis for
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Water Resour. Res., 53, 10841–10857,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021344, 2017.
Tibshirani, R.: Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso, J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 58, 267–288, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x, 1996.
Weyrich, P., Mondino, E., Borga, M., Di Baldassarre, G., Patt, A., and Scolobig, A.: A flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 287–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-287-2020, 2020.
Woetzel, J., Pinner, D., Samandari, H., Engel, H., Krishnan, M., Boland, B.,
and Cooper, P.: Can coastal cities turn the tide on rising flood risk?,
McKinsey Global Institue, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/can%20coastal%20cities%20turn%20the%20tide%20on%20rising%20flood%20risk/mgi-can-coastal-cities-turn-the-tide-on-rising-flood-risk.pdf (last access: 14 March 2023), 2020.
Yang, L. E., Scheffran, J., Süsser, D., Dawson, R., and Chen, Y. D.:
Assessment of Flood Losses with Household Responses: Agent-Based Simulation
in an Urban Catchment Area, Environ. Model. Assess., 23,
369–388, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-018-9597-3, 2018.
Yang, L. E., Garschagen, M., Diez, J. R., and Kreibich, H.: DECIDER
Project, Project Newsletter, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.23567.41125, 2020.
Zou, H. and Hastie, T.: Regularization and variable selection via the
elastic net, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 67, 301–320,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00503.x, 2005.
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint