Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Invited perspectives
| 
10 Mar 2022
Invited perspectives |
| 10 Mar 2022
| 10 Mar 2022
Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Enrico Tubaldi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
Christopher J. White
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
Edoardo Patelli
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK
Gustavo de Almeida
Faculty of Engineering and Physical Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Jim Brown
Transport Scotland, Glasgow, UK
Michael Cranston
Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Perth, UK
Martin Hardman
Cumbria County Council, Carlisle, UK
Eftychia Koursari
Amey, Glasgow, UK
JBA Trust, South Barn, Skipton, UK
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Hazel McDonald
Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Perth, UK
Richard Mathews
Mott MacDonald, Altrincham, UK
Richard Newell
Network Rail, Milton Keynes, UK
Alonso Pizarro
Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile
Marta Roca
HR Wallingford, Wallingford, UK
Daniele Zonta
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Alonso Pizarro, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, and Alberto Montanari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-389, 2025
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce RUMI, a new metric to improve rainfall-runoff simulations. RUMI better captures the link between observed and simulated stream flows by considering uncertainty at a core computation step. Tested on 99 catchments and with the GR4J model, it outperforms traditional metrics by providing more reliable and consistent results. RUMI paves the way for more accurate hydrological predictions.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Robert Ljubičić, Dariia Strelnikova, Matthew T. Perks, Anette Eltner, Salvador Peña-Haro, Alonso Pizarro, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Ulf Scherling, Pietro Vuono, and Salvatore Manfreda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5105–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The rise of new technologies such as drones (unmanned aerial systems – UASs) has allowed widespread use of image velocimetry techniques in place of more traditional, usually slower, methods during hydrometric campaigns. In order to minimize the velocity estimation errors, one must stabilise the acquired videos. In this research, we compare the performance of different UAS video stabilisation tools and provide guidelines for their use in videos with different flight and ground conditions.
Chun-Hsu Su, Nathan Eizenberg, Dörte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Peter Steinle, Christopher J. White, and Charmaine Franklin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4357–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4357-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) has produced a very high-resolution reconstruction of Australian historical weather from 1990 to 2018. This paper demonstrates the added weather and climate information to supplement coarse- or moderate-resolution regional and global reanalyses. The new climate data can allow greater understanding of past weather, including extreme events, at very local kilometre scales.
Keith J. Beven, Mike J. Kirkby, Jim E. Freer, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 527–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments: the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL, and it considers what we might do now with the benefit of hindsight.
Alonso Pizarro, Silvano F. Dal Sasso, Matthew T. Perks, and Salvatore Manfreda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5173–5185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
An innovative approach is presented to optimise image-velocimetry performances for surface flow velocity estimates (and thus remotely sensed river discharges). Synthetic images were generated under different tracer characteristics using a numerical approach. Based on the results, the Seeding Distribution Index was introduced as a descriptor of the optimal portion of the video to analyse. A field case study was considered as a proof of concept of the proposed framework showing error reductions.
Barry Hankin, Ian Hewitt, Graham Sander, Federico Danieli, Giuseppe Formetta, Alissa Kamilova, Ann Kretzschmar, Kris Kiradjiev, Clint Wong, Sam Pegler, and Rob Lamb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2567–2584, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2567-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2567-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
With growing support for nature-based solutions to reduce flooding by local communities, government authorities and international organisations, it is still important to improve how we assess risk reduction. We demonstrate an efficient, simplified 1D network model that allows us to explore the
whole-systemresponse of numerous leaky barriers placed in different stream networks, whilst considering utilisation, synchronisation effects and cascade failure, and we provide advice on their siting.
Matthew T. Perks, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Alexandre Hauet, Elizabeth Jamieson, Jérôme Le Coz, Sophie Pearce, Salvador Peña-Haro, Alonso Pizarro, Dariia Strelnikova, Flavia Tauro, James Bomhof, Salvatore Grimaldi, Alain Goulet, Borbála Hortobágyi, Magali Jodeau, Sabine Käfer, Robert Ljubičić, Ian Maddock, Peter Mayr, Gernot Paulus, Lionel Pénard, Leigh Sinclair, and Salvatore Manfreda
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1545–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1545-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present datasets acquired from seven countries across Europe and North America consisting of image sequences. These have been subjected to a range of pre-processing methods in preparation for image velocimetry analysis. These datasets and accompanying reference data are a resource that may be used for conducting benchmarking experiments, assessing algorithm performances, and focusing future software development.
Mirianna Budimir, Amy Donovan, Sarah Brown, Puja Shakya, Dilip Gautam, Madhab Uprety, Michael Cranston, Alison Sneddon, Paul Smith, and Sumit Dugar
Geosci. Commun., 3, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-49-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-49-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning systems for natural hazards have the potential to save lives and improve people's resilience to disasters. However, challenges remain in disseminating and communicating more complex warnings with longer lead times to decision makers and individuals at risk. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current flood early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination, and decision-making for early action.
Chun-Hsu Su, Nathan Eizenberg, Peter Steinle, Dörte Jakob, Paul Fox-Hughes, Christopher J. White, Susan Rennie, Charmaine Franklin, Imtiaz Dharssi, and Hongyan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2049–2068, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) is the first regional reanalysis for Australia, NZ, and SE Asia. It offers realistic depictions of near-surface meteorology at a scale required for emergency services, defence, and other major sectors such as energy and agriculture. It uses a consistent method of analysing the atmosphere, with a higher-resolution model over 1990 to 2018, and can provide greater understanding of past weather, including extreme events.
Peter Metcalfe, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding is a significant hazard and extreme events in recent years have focused attention on effective means of reducing its risk. An approach known as natural flood management (NFM) seeks to increase flood resilience by a range of measures that work with natural processes. The paper develops a modelling approach to assess one type NFM of intervention – distributed additional hillslope storage features – and demonstrates that more strategic placement is required than has hitherto been applied.
Rob Lamb, Willy Aspinall, Henry Odbert, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1393–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Scour (erosion) during floods can cause bridges to collapse. Modern design and maintenance mitigates the risk, so failures are rare. The residual risk is uncertain, but expert knowledge can help constrain it. We asked 19 experts about scour risk using methods designed to treat judgements alongside other scientific data. The findings identified knowledge gaps about scour processes and suggest wider uncertainty about scour risk than might be inferred from observation, models or experiments alone.
C. J. White, S. W. Franks, and D. McEvoy
Proc. IAHS, 370, 229–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-229-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-229-2015, 2015
M. Newby, S. W. Franks, and C. J. White
Proc. IAHS, 370, 3–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-3-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-3-2015, 2015
S. W. Franks, C. J. White, and M. Gensen
Proc. IAHS, 369, 31–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-31-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-31-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: A comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Content Analysis of Multi-Annual Time Series of Flood-Related Twitter (X) Data
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Flood exposure of environmental assets
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Adaptive Behavior of Over a Million Individual Farmers Under Consecutive Droughts: A Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Analysis in the Bhima Basin, India
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. Spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua Drought and the Wanli Drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2556, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustain and fulfil life on Earth through ecosystem services. Assessing their flood risk is thus seminal, besides required by several norms. Even though, this field is not yet sufficiently developed. We explored the exposure component of the flood risk, and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ecosystem services provided by the environmental assets, to discern assets and areas more important than others with metrics suitable to large scale studies.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners’ needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1588, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated all farmers' individual choices—like changing crops or digging wells—and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damages. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrology models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is developed into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East and Southwest China.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Cited articles
Achillopoulou, D. V., Mitoulis, S. A., Argyroudis, S. A., and Wang, Y.:
Monitoring of transport infrastructure exposed to multiple hazards: A
roadmap for building resilience, Sci. Total Environ., 746, 141001,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141001, 2020.
Alipour, A.: Enhancing resilience of bridges to extreme events by rapid
damage assessment and response strategies, Transp. Res. Record, 2604,
54–62, https://doi.org/10.3141/2604-07, 2017.
Argyroudis, S. A., Mitoulis, S. A., Winter, M. G., and Kaynia, A.
M.: Fragility of transport assets exposed to multiple hazards:
State-of-the-art review toward infrastructural resilience, Reliab. Eng. Sys.
Safe, 191, 106567, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106567, 2019.
Argyroudis, S. A. and Mitoulis, S. A.: Vulnerability of bridges to individual
and multiple hazards – floods and earthquakes, Reliab. Eng. Sys. Safe, 210, 107564,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107564, 2021.
Akay, S. S., Özcan, O., and Şanlı, F. B.: Quantification and
visualization of flood-induced morphological changes in meander structures
by UAV-based monitoring, Eng. Sci. Tech., 27, 101016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jestch.2021.05.020, 2021.
Badroddin, M. and Chen, Z.: Lifetime Resilience Measurement of
River-Crossing Bridges with Scour Countermeasures under Multiple Hazards, J.
Eng. Mec., 147, 04021058,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0001951, 2021.
Bandini, F., Lüthi, B., Peña-Haro, S., Borst, C., Liu, J., Karagkiolidou, S., Hu, X., Guillaume Lemaire, G., Bjerg, P. L., and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: A drone-borne method to
jointly estimate discharge and Manning's roughness of natural streams, Water
Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028266, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028266,
2021.
Bento, A. M., Gomes, A., Viseu, T., Couto, L., and Pêgo, J. P.:
Risk-based methodology for scour analysis at bridge foundations, Eng. Struct.,
223, 111115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.111115, 2020.
Beven, K., Romanowicz, R., Pappenberger, F., Young, P. C., and Werner, M.:
The uncertainty cascade in flood forecasting, in: Proceedings of the ACTIF
meeting on Flood Risk, Tromso, Norway, 17–19 October 2005, 1–9, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240341310_The_Uncertainty_Cascade_in_Flood_Forecasting (last access: 9 March 2022), 2005.
Birch, C. E., Rabb, B. L., Böing, S. J., Shelton, K. L., Lamb, R.,
Hunter, N. H., Trigg, M. A., Hines, A., Taylor, A. L., Pilling, C., Dale.
M.: Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User-led
development and testing, J. Flood Risk. Manag., 14, 14:e12691,
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12691, 2021.
Breusers, H. N. C. and Raudkivi, A. J. (Eds.): Scouring, Balkema, Rotterdam, ISBN 9061919835 9789061919834, 1991.
Breusers, H. N. C., Nicollet, G., and Shen, H. W.: Local scour around
cylindrical piers, J. Hydraul. Res., 15, 211–252,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00221687709499645, 1977.
Briaud, J. L., Gardoni, P., and Yao, C.: Statistical, risk, and reliability
analyses of bridge scour, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 140, 04013011, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000989, 2014.
Cantero-Chinchilla, F. N., de Almeida, G. A. M., and Manes, C.: Temporal
Evolution of Clear-Water Local Scour at Bridge Piers with Flow-Dependent
Debris Accumulations, J. Hydraul. Eng., 147, 06021013,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001920, 2021.
Cappello, C., Zonta, D., and Glišić, B.: Expected utility theory for
monitoring-based decision-making, P. IEEE, 104, 1647–1661,
https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.2015.2511540, 2016.
Carnacina, I., Pagliara, S., and Leonardi, N.: Bridge pier scour under
pressure flow conditions, Riv. Res. Appl., 35, 844–854,
https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3451, 2019.
Chreties, C., Teixeira, L., and Simarro, G.: Influence of flow conditions on
scour hole shape for pier groups, P. I. Civil Eng.-Wat. M., 166, 111–119,
https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.11.00054, 2013.
Cranston, M. D. and Tavendale, A. C.: Advances in operational flood
forecasting in Scotland, P. I. Civil Eng.-Wat. M., 165, 79–87,
https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.2012.165.2.79, 2012.
Crotti, G. and Cigada, A.: Scour at river bridge piers: real-time
vulnerability assessment through the continuous monitoring of a bridge over
the river Po, Italy, J. Civ. Struct. Health Mon., 9, 513–528,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13349-019-00348-5, 2019.
Dal Sasso, S. F., Pizarro, A., Pearce, S., Maddock, I., and Manfreda, S.:
Increasing LSPIV performances by exploiting the seeding distribution index
at different spatial scales, J. Hydrol., 598, 126438,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126438, 2021a.
Dal Sasso, S. F., Pizarro, A., and Manfreda, S.: Recent Advancements and
Perspectives in UAS-Based Image Velocimetry, Drones, 5, 81,
https://doi.org/10.3390/drones5030081, 2021b.
Dikanski, H., Imam, B., and Hagen-Zanker, A.: Effects of uncertain asset
stock data on the assessment of climate change risks: A case study of bridge
scour in the UK, Struct. Saf., 71, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.10.008, 2018.
Ebrahimi, M., Kahraman, R., Kripakaran, P., Djordjevic, S., Tabor, G.,
and Prodanović, D. M.: Scour and hydrodynamic effects of debris blockage at
masonry bridges: insights from experimental and numerical modelling, in:
Proceedings of 37th IAHR world congress, 13–18 August 2017, Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia, http://hdl.handle.net/10871/28314 (last access: 3 March 2022), 2017.
Eltner, A., Bertalan, L., Grundmann, J., Perks, M. T., and Lotsari, E.:
Hydro-morphological mapping of river reaches using videos captured with
unoccupied aerial systems, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 46, 2773–2787, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5205, 2021.
Environment Agency: Peak river flow climate change allowances by management
catchment,
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/peak-river-flow-climate-change-allowances-by-management-catchment (last access: 20 January 2022), 2021.
Fulton, J. W., Anderson, I. E., Chiu, C.-L., Sommer, W., Adams, J. D.,
Moramarco, T., Bjerklie, D. M., Fulford, J. M., Sloan, J. L., Best, H. R.,
Conaway, J. S., Kang, M. J., Kohn, M. S., Nicotra, M. J., and Pulli, J. J.:
QCam: sUAS-Based Doppler Radar for Measuring River Discharge, Remote
Sens.-Basel, 12, 3317, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203317, 2020.
Giordano, P. F., Prendergast, L. J., and Limongelli, M. P.: A framework for
assessing the value of information for health monitoring of scoured bridges,
J. Civil Struct. Health Monit., 10, 485–496,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13349-020-00398-0, 2020.
Hamidifar, H., Zanganeh-Inaloo, F., and Carnacina, I.: Hybrid Scour Depth
Prediction Equations for Reliable Design of Bridge Piers, Water, 13, 2019,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w13152019, 2021.
Highway Agency: Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (BD 97/12), The assessment of scour and other hydraulic actions at highway structures, http://www.standardsforhighways.co.uk/ha/standards/dmrb/vol3/section4/bd9712.pdf (last access: 3 March 2022), 2012.
Honfi, D. and Lange, D.: Structural health monitoring, a tool for improving
critical infrastructure resilience, COST TU1402: Quantifying the Value of
Structural Health Monitoring, 1st workshop, 4–5 May 2015, Technical
University of Denmark, Denmark, https://www.cost-tu1402.eu/-/media/Sites/cost-tu1402/Documents/1,-d-,-Workshop/WG1/TU1402_cph_DH.ashx?la=da&hash=B48684FB7CDC978120F791D9BD656296B4EADDA3 (last access 3 March 2022), 2015.
Hossain, M. S., Khan, M. S., Hossain, J., Kibria, G., and Taufiq, T.:
Evaluation of Unknown Foundation Depth Using Different NDT Methods, J
Perform. Constr. Fac., 27, 209–214,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000268, 2013.
HR Wallingford: Hydraulic aspects of bridges: assessment of the risk of scour (EX 2502), Technical Report, HR Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, https://eprints.hrwallingford.com/315/ (last access: 3 March 2022), 1992,
Hulet, K. M., Smith, C. C., and Gilbert, M.: Load-carrying capacity of
flooded masonry arch bridges, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng.: Bridge Eng., 159,
97–103, https://doi.org/10.1680/bren.2006.159.3.97, 2006.
Jaroszweski, D., Wood, R., and Chapman, L.: Infrastructure, in: The Third UK Climate Change Risk
Assessment Technical Report, edited by: Betts, R. A., Haward, A. B., Pearson, K. V., Prepared for the Climate Change Committee,
London, https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Technical-Report-The-Third-Climate-Change-Risk-Assessment.pdf (last access: 3 March 2022), 2021.
Jeong, Y., Kim, W., Lee, I., and Lee, J.: Bridge inspection practices and
bridge management programs in China, Japan, Korea, and U.S., Journal of Structural Integrity and Maintenance, 3, 126–135,
https://doi.org/10.1080/24705314.2018.1461548, 2018.
Johnson, P. A., Clopper, P. E., Zevenbergen, L. W., and Lagasse, P. F.:
Quantifying Uncertainty and Reliability in Bridge Scour Estimations, J.
Hydraul. Eng.-Asce, 141, 04015013,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001017, 2015.
Kim, H., Sim, S.-H., Lee, J., Lee, Y.-J., and Kim, J.-M.: Flood fragility
analysis for bridges with multiple failure modes, Adv. Mech. Eng., 9,
1687814017696415, https://doi.org/10.1177/1687814017696415, 2017.
Kirby, A., Roca, M., Kitchen, A., Escarameia, M., and Chesterton, O.: Manual
on scour at bridges and other hydraulic structures, second edition (C742),
CIRIA, 320 pp., ISBN 978-0-86017-747-0, 2015.
Kitchen, A., Roca, M., Kirby, A., and Escarameia, M.: Manual on scour at
bridges and other hydraulic structures – supplementary guide (SP171), CIRIA,
78 pp., ISBN 978-0-86017-939-9, 2021.
Komma, J., Reszler, C., Blöschl, G., and Haiden, T.: Ensemble prediction of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 431–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-431-2007, 2007.
Koursari, E. and Wallace, S.: Infrastructure scour management: a case study
for A68 Galadean Bridge, UK, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng.: Bridge Eng., 173,
42–49, https://doi.org/10.1680/jbren.18.00062, 2020.
Lagasse, P. F., Clopper, P. E., Zevenbergen, L. W., Spitz, W. J., and
Girard, L. G.: Effects of debris on bridge pier scour, National Cooperative
Highway Research Program 254 (NCHRP) Rep. No. 653, Transportation Research
Board, Washington, DC, https://doi.org/10.17226/22955, 2010.
Lagasse, P. F., Zevenbergen, L. W., Spitz, W., and Arneson, L. A.: Stream
Stability at Highway Structures, Fourth Edition, Hydraulic Engineering
Circular No. 20, Publication No. Fhwa-Hif-12-004, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/engineering/hydraulics/pubs/hif12004.pdf (last access: 3 March 2022), 2012.
Lai, Y. G. and Greimann, B. P.: Predicting contraction scour with a
two-dimensional depth-averaged model, J. Hydraul. Res., 48, 383–387,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2010.481846, 2010.
Lamb, R., Aspinall, W., Odbert, H., and Wagener, T.: Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1393–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017, 2017.
Lamb, R., Garside, P., Pant, R., and Hall, J. W.: A Probabilistic Model of
the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During
Floods, Risk Anal., 39, 2457–2478, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13370, 2019.
Laursen, E. M. and Toch, A.: Scour Around Bridge Piers and Abutments, HR-30
and Iowa Highway Research Board Bulletin No. 4, http://publications.iowa.gov/id/eprint/20237 (last access: 3 March 2022), 1956.
Le Coz, J., Hauet, A., Pierrefeu, G., Dramais, G., and Camenen, B.:
Performance of image-based velocimetry (LSPIV) applied to flash-flood
discharge measurements in Mediterranean rivers, J. Hydrol., 394, 42–52,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.049, 2010.
Lee, S. O., Abid, I., and Hong, S. H.: Effect of complex shape of pier
foundation exposure on time development of scour, Environ. Fluid. Mech., 21,
103–127, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10652-020-09765-3, 2021.
Liang, F., Wang, C., and Yu, X.: Performance of Existing Methods for
Estimation and Mitigation of Local Scour around Bridges: Case Studies, J.
Perform. Constr. Fac., 33, 04019060,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0001329, 2019.
Link, O., Castillo, C., Pizarro, A., Rojas, A., Ettmer, B., Escauriaza, C.,
and Manfreda, S.: A model of bridge pier scour during flood waves, J. Hydraul.
Res., 55, 310–323, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2016.1252802, 2017.
Link, O., García, M., Pizarro, A., Alcayaga, H., and Palma, S.: Local
scour and sediment deposition at bridge piers during floods, J. Hydraul.
Eng., 146, 04020003, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001696,
2020.
Liu, L., Frangopol, D. M., Mondoro, A., and Yang, D. Y.:
Sustainability-informed bridge ranking under scour based on transportation network performance and multiattribute utility, J. Bridge Eng., 23, 04018082, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0001296, 2018.
Maddison, B.: Scour failure of bridges, Proceedings of the Institution of
Civil Engineers-Forensic Engineering, 165, 39–52,
https://doi.org/10.1680/feng.2012.165.1.39, 2012.
Majid, S. A. and Tripathi, S.: Pressure-Flow Scour Due to Vertical
Contraction: A Review, J. Hydraul. Eng., 147, 03121002,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001943, 2021.
Manes, C. and Brocchini, M.: Local scour around structures and the
phenomenology of turbulence, J. Fluid Mech., 779, 309–324,
https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2015.389, 2015.
Maroni, A: SHM-based decision support system for risk management of bridge
scour, PhD Thesis, University of Strathclyde, UK, 2020.
Maroni, A., Tubaldi, E., Ferguson, N., Tarantino, A., McDonald, H., and
Zonta, D.: Electromagnetic sensors for underwater scour
monitoring, Sensors, 20, 4096, https://doi.org/10.3390/s20154096, 2020a.
Mathews, R. and Hardman, M.: Lessons learnt from the December 2015 flood event
in Cumbria, UK, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Forensic
Engineering, 170, 165–178, https://doi.org/10.1680/jfoen.17.00009, 2017.
Melville, B. W. and Coleman, S. E.: Bridge scour, Water Resources
Publication, LLC, Highlands Ranch, USA, ISBN 13 978-1-887201-18-6
ISBN 10 1-887201-18-1, 2000.
Melville, B. W. and Sutherland, A. J.: Design method for local scour at
bridge piers, J. Hydraul. Eng., 114, 1210–1226,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1988)114:10(1210), 1988.
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N., Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F., Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K., Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpts, A.: Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, 4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020rg000704, 2020.
Middleton, C.: Bridge management and assessment in the UK, in: Austroads
bridge conference, 5TH, 19–21 May 2004, Hobart, Tasmania, ISBN 0855886986, 2004.
Minsker, B., Baldwin, L., Crittenden, J., Kabbes, K., Karamouz, M., Lansey, K., Malinowski, P., Nzewi, E., Pandit, A., Parker, J., Rivera, S., Surbeck, C., Wallace, W., and Williams, J.: Progress and recommendations for advancing
performance-based sustainable and resilient infrastructure design, Water
Res. M., 141, A4015006,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000521, 2015.
Mitoulis, S. A. and Argyroudis, S. A.: Restoration models of flood
resilient bridges: Survey data, Data in Brief, 36, 107088,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2021.107088, 2021.
Mitoulis, S. A., Argyroudis, S. A., Loli, M., and Imam, B.: Restoration
models for quantifying flood resilience of bridges, Eng. Struct., 238, 112180,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.112180, 2021.
Mondoro, A. and Frangopol, D. M.: Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for the
retrofit of bridges exposed to extreme hydrologic events considering
multiple failure modes, Eng. Struct., 159, 310–319,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.12.029, 2018.
Montanari, M., Hostache, R., Matgen, P., Schumann, G., Pfister, L., and Hoffmann, L.: Calibration and sequential updating of a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model using remote sensing-derived water stages, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 367–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-367-2009, 2009.
Moore, M., Phares, B. M., Graybeal, B., Rolander, D., Washer, G., and Wiss, J.: FHWA-RD-01-020 Reliability of Visual Inspection for Highway Bridges, Volume I, Final Report, Federal Highway Administration, West Virginia, USA, https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/33883 (last access: 3 March 2022), 2001.
Oliveto, G. and Hager, W. H.: Temporal evolution of clear-water pier and
abutment scour, J. Hydraul. Eng., 128, 811–820,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2002)128:9(811), 2002.
Oliveto, G. and Hager, W. H.: Further results to time dependent local scour at
bridge elements, J. Hydraul. Eng., 131, 97–105, 2005.
Oudenbroek, K.: Experimental research on hydrodynamic failure of river
bridges on spread footings, Master Thesis, TU Delft, Netherlands, https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid:317525a3-e73f-4245-a79e-02005f6fde6f/datastream/OBJ/download (last access: 3 March 2022), 2018a.
Oudenbroek, K., Naderi, N., Bricker, J.D., Yang, Y., Van der Veen, C., Uijttewaal, W., Moriguchi, S., and Jonkman, S. N.: Hydrodynamic and debris-damming
failure of bridge decks and piers in steady flow, Geosciences, 8, 409,
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8110409, 2018b.
Pagliara, S. and Carnacina, I., Temporal scour evolution at bridge piers:
Effect of wood debris roughness and porosity, J. Hydraul. Res., 48, 3–13,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00221680903568592, 2010.
Panici, D. and de Almeida, G. A. M.: Formation, growth, and failure of
debris jams at bridge piers, Water Resour. Res., 54, 6226–6241, 2018.
Panici, D. and de Almeida, G. A. M.: Influence of pier geometry and debris
characteristics on the accumulation of woody debris at bridge piers, J.
Hydraul. Eng., 146, 04020041, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001757, 2020.
Park, C. W., Park, H. I., and Cho, Y. K.: Evaluation of the applicability of
pier local scour formulae using laboratory and field data, Mar. Georesour.
Geotec., 35, 1–7, 2017.
Pizarro, A. and Tubaldi, E.: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in
bridge scour risk assessment under multiple flood events, Geosciences,
9, 445, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9100445, 2019.
Pizarro, A., Ettmer, B., Manfreda, S., Rojas, A., and Link, O.:
Dimensionless effective flow work for estimation of pier scour caused by
flood waves, J. Hydraul. Eng., 143, 06017006, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001295, 2017a.
Pizarro, A., Samela, C., Fiorentino, M., Link, O., and Manfreda, S.:
BRISENT: an entropy-based model for bridge-pier scour estimation under
complex hydraulic scenarios, Water, 9, 889, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9110889, 2017b.
Pizarro, A., Manfreda, S., and Tubaldi, E.: The science behind scour at
bridge foundations: A review, Water, 12, 374, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020374, 2020a.
Pizarro, A., Dal Sasso, S. F., and Manfreda, S.: Refining image-velocimetry
performances for streamflow monitoring: Seeding metrics to errors
minimization, Hydrol. Process., 34, 5167–5175,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13919, 2020b.
Porter, K.: Beginner's Guide to Fragility, Vulnerability, and Risk, in: Encyclopedia of
Earthquake Engineering, edited by: Beer, M., Kougioumtzoglou, I. A., Patelli, E., and Au, S. K., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35344-4_256, ISBN 978-3-642-35343-7, 2015.
Prendergast, L. J. and Gavin, K.: A review of bridge scour monitoring
techniques, Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, 6,
138–149, 2014.
Prendergast, L. J., Limongelli, M. P., Ademovic, N., Anžlin, A., Gavin, K., and Zanini, M.: Structural health monitoring for performance assessment of
bridges under flooding and seismic actions, Struct. Eng. Int., 28, 296–307, 2018.
Pregnolato, M.: Bridge safety is not for granted – A novel approach to bridge
management, Eng. Struct., 196, 109193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.05.035, 2019.
Qi, M., Li, J., and Chen, Q.: Applicability analysis of pier-scour equations
in the field: Error analysis by rationalizing measurement data, J. Hydraul.
Eng., 144, 04018050, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001497, 2018.
RAC Foundation: Number of substandard road bridges on the rise again,
https://www.racfoundation.org/media-centre/number-of-substandard-road-bridges-on-the-rise-again,
last access: 3 December 2021.
Richardson, E. V. and Davis, S. R.: Evaluating Scour at Bridges, Hydraulic
Engineering Circular (HEC) No. 18, U.S. Department of Transportation,
Washington, DC, USA, https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/50281 (last access: 3 March 2022), 2001.
RiverTrack: Flood Alerting for Resilient Communities,
http://www.rivertrack.org/, last access: 21 December 2021.
Roca, M. and Whitehouse, R.: Scour risk assessment at river crossings, in:
Proceedings of ICSE6 Paris, 27–31 August, 1–10, https://eprints.hrwallingford.com/887/1/HRPP528_Scour_risk_assessment_at_river_crossings.pdf (last access: 3 March 2022), 2012.
Sasidharan, M., Parlikad, A. K., and Schooling, J.: Risk-informed asset
management to tackle scouring on bridges across transport networks, Struct.
Infrastruct. E, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2021.1899249, 2021.
Shahriar, A. R., Ortiz, A. C., Montoya, B. M., and Gabr, M. A.: Bridge Pier
Scour: An overview of factors affecting the phenomenon and comparative
evaluation of selected models, Transportation Geotechnics, 28, 100549, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trgeo.2021.100549, 2021.
Sharafi, H., Ebtehaj, I., Bonakdari, H., and Zaji, A. H.: Design of a
support vector machine with different kernel functions to predict scour
depth around bridge piers, Nat. Hazards, 84, 2145–2162, 2016.
Sheppard, D. M., Melville, B., and Demir, H.: Evaluation of existing
equations for local scour at bridge piers, J. Hydraul. Eng., 140, 14–23, 2014.
Scozzese, F., Ragni, L., Tubaldi, E., and Gara, F.: Modal properties
variation and collapse assessment of masonry arch bridges under scour
action, Eng. Struct., 199, 109665, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.109665, 2019.
Schmocker, L. and Hager, W. H.: Probability of drift blockage at bridge
decks, J. Hydraul. Eng., 137, 470–479, 2011.
Smith, A. W., Argyroudis, S. A., Winter, M. G., and Mitoulis, S. A.:
Economic impact of bridge functionality loss from a resilience perspective:
Queensferry Crossing, UK, in: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil
Engineers-Bridge Engineering, 1–11, Thomas Telford Ltd,
https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/full/10.1680/jbren.20.00041 (last access: 3 March 2022), 2021.
Speight, L. J., Cranston, M. D., White, C. J., and Kelly, L.: Operational
and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting, Wires Water,
8, e1517, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1517, 2021.
Takano, H. and Pooley, M.: New UK guidance on hydraulic actions on highway
structures and bridges, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers –
Bridge Engineering, 174, 231–238,
https://doi.org/10.1680/jbren.20.00024, 2021.
Tanasić, N. and Hajdin, R.: Performance indicators for bridges exposed
to a flooding hazard, in: Proceedings of the Joint COST TU 1402 – COST TU
1406-IABSE WC1 Workshop, Zagreb, Croatia, Zagreb, 2–3 March 2017, https://doi.org/10.5592/CO/BSHM2017.3.5, 2017.
Tanasić, N., Ilić, V., and Hajdin, R.: Vulnerability assessment of
bridges exposed to scour, Transp. Res. Record., 2360, 36–44,
https://doi.org/10.3141/2360-05, 2013.
Thacker, S., Barr, S., Pant, R., Hall, J. W., and Alderson, D.: Geographic
Hotspots of Critical National Infrastructure, Risk Anal., 37, 2490–2505,
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12840, 2017.
Transport Scotland: Scour Management Strategy and Flood Emergency Plan.
Triantaphyllou, E.: Multi-criteria decision making methods: A comparative
study, Springer, ISBN 978-1-4757-3157-6, 2000.
Tubaldi, E., Macorini, L., Izzuddin, B. A., Manes, C., and Laio, F.: A
framework for probabilistic assessment of clear-water scour around bridge
piers, Struct. Saf., 69, 11–22,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.07.001, 2017a.
Tubaldi, E., Macorini, L., and Izzuddin, B.: Flood risk assessment of
masonry arch bridges, in: 2nd International Conference on Uncertainty
Quantification in Computational Sciences and Engineering, UNCECOMP, 15–17 June 2017, Rhodes Island, Greece, https://doi.org/10.7712/120217.5358.16942, 2017b.
Tubaldi, E., Macorini, L., and Izzuddin, B. A.: Three-dimensional mesoscale
modelling of multi-span masonry arch bridges subjected to scour, Eng. Struct.,
165, 486–500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2018.03.031, 2018.
Tubaldi, E., Maroni, A., Ferguson, N., and Zonta, D.: Evaluating the benefit
of structural health monitoring for improving bridge resilience against
scour, Deliverable D1 – Report on critical review of alternative techniques
for bridge scour monitoring, National Centre for Resilience, Dumfries,
United Kingdom, https://sway.office.com/paZdmLnyF7wb5Zbh?ref=Link (last access: 3
February 2022), 2020.
Tubaldi, E., Maroni, A., Ferguson, N., and Zonta, D.: Evaluating the benefit
of structural health monitoring for improving bridge resilience against
scour, Deliverable D2 – Framework for sensor data fusion, National Centre
for Resilience, Dumfries, United Kingdom, available upon request, 2021.
Tubaldi, E., Ozer, E., Douglas, J., and Gehl, P.: Examining the contribution
of near real-time data for rapid seismic loss assessment of structures,
Struct. Health Monitoring, 21, 1475921721996218,
https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921721996218, 2021.
Tucker, S. E., Briaud, J. L., Hurlebaus, S., Everett, M. E., and Arjwech,
R.: Electrical resistivity and induced polarization imaging for unknown
bridge foundations, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 141, 04015008,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001268, 2015.
Van Leeuwen, Z. and Lamb, R.: Flood and scour related failure incidents at
railway assets between 1846 and 2013, JBA Trust, Skipton, United Kingdom, https://www.jbatrust.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/JBA-Trust-Flood-and-scour-failure-at-railway-assets-1846-to-2013-W13-4224-FINAL.pdf (last access: 3 March 2022), 2014.
Vardanega, P. J., Gavriel, G., and Pregnolato, M.: Assessing the suitability
of bridge-scour-monitoring devices, in: Proceedings of the Institution of
Civil Engineers-Forensic Engineering, 74, https://doi.org/10.1680/jfoen.20.00022, 2021.
Wagenaar, D., Curran, A., Balbi, M., Bhardwaj, A., Soden, R., Hartato, E., Mestav Sarica, G., Ruangpan, L., Molinario, G., and Lallemant, D.: Invited perspectives: How machine learning will change flood risk and impact assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1149–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1149-2020, 2020.
Wang, C., Yu, X., and Liang, F.: Comparison and estimation of the local scour
depth around pile groups and wide piers, in Geotechnical Frontiers, edited by: Brandon, T. L. and Valentine, R. J., ASCE, Reston, VA, USA, 11–19,
https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784480465.002, 2017.
Wetterhall, F. and Di Giuseppe, F.: The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3409–3420, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018, 2018.
White, C. J, Carlsen, H., Robertson, A. W, Klein, R. J. T., Lazo, J. K., Kumar, A., Vitart, F., de Perez, E. C., Ray, A. J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., MacLeod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A. P., Eggen, B., Graham, R., Kjellstrom, E., Becker, E., Pegion, K. V., Holbrook, N. J., McEvoy, D., Depledge, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Brown, T. J., Street, R., Jones, L., Remenyi, T. A., Hodgson-Johnston, I., Buontempo, C., Lamb, R., Meinke, H., Arheimer, B., and Zebiak, S. E.: Potential applications of
subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions, Meteorol. Appl., 24, 315–325,
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1654, 2017.
Wiggins, D., Mudd, K., and Healey, M.: Rehabilitation of Brougham Castle
Bridge, UK, in: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Engineering
History and Heritage, 172, 7–18, https://doi.org/10.1680/jenhh.18.00027, 2019.
Wu, R. T. and Jahanshahi, M. R.: Data fusion approaches for structural
health monitoring and system identification: past, present, and future,
Struct. Health Monitoring, 19, 552–586,
https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921718798769, 2020.
Ye, C., Butler, L., Calka, B., Iangurazov, M., Lu, Q., Gregory, A., Girolami, M., and Middleton, C.: A digital twin of bridges for structural health monitoring,
in: Structural Health Monitoring 2019: Enabling Intelligent Life-Cycle Health
Management for Industry Internet of Things (IIOT), Proceedings of the 12th
International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring,
https://doi.org/10.12783/shm2019/32287, 2019.
Yu, W., Nakakita, E., Kim, S., and Yamaguchi, K.: Impact assessment of
uncertainty propagation of ensemble NWP rainfall to flood forecasting with
catchment scale, Adv. Meteorol., 2016, 1384302, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/1384302, 2016.
Zampieri, P., Zanini, M. A., Faleschini, F., Hofer, L., and Pellegrino, C.:
Failure analysis of masonry arch bridges subject to local pier scour, Eng.
Fail. Anal., 79, 371–384, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2017.05.028,
2017.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(1800 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint