Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Bangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal flooding
Aurélia Bernard
LIENSs, La Rochelle Université–CNRS, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, 17000 La Rochelle, France
CERG-C Coordination, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Rue des Maraîchers 13, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
ESPACE, Campus Hannah Arendt, Avignon Université, CNRS, 74 rue Louis Pasteur, 84000 Avignon, France
Nathalie Long
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LIENSs, La Rochelle Université–CNRS, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, 17000 La Rochelle, France
Mélanie Becker
LIENSs, La Rochelle Université–CNRS, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, 17000 La Rochelle, France
Jamal Khan
LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNRS–IRD–UPS–CNES, 14 avenue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France
IWFM, BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Sylvie Fanchette
CESSMA, IRD, Paris Diderot University, 8 Paul Ricœur Square, 75013 Paris, France
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The Bay of Bengal is well known for some of the deadliest cyclones in history. At the same time, storm surge forecasting in this region is physically involved and computationally costly. Here we show a proof of concept of a real-time, computationally efficient, and physically consistent forecasting system with an application to the recent Supercyclone Amphan. While challenges remain, our study paves the path forward to the improvement of the quality of localized forecast and disaster management.
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Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme events and enforces the development of adaptation strategies to face coastal risk. These strategies modify the inequalities barely considered during the decision-making process and question the resilience of these territories. On the French Atlantic coast, the study reveals that the
managed retreatstrategy seems the most sustainable over time, while the
holding the coastlinestrategy reinforces inequalities and costs for the whole society.
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Short summary
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the...
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