Articles | Volume 22, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 28 Nov 2022
| 28 Nov 2022
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Qinke Sun
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai
200241, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai
200241, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, School of Information
Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional
Change, Hangzhou 311121, China
Xuewei Dang
Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070,
China
Kepeng Xu
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai
200241, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Yongqiang Fang
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai
200241, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai
200241, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Min Liu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai
200241, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of
Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Zijiang Song, Zhixiang Cheng, Yuying Li, Shanshan Yu, Xiaowen Zhang, Lina Yuan, and Min Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-137, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
It is hard to access long-time series and high-resolution meteorological data for historical years. In this paper, we proposed a geopotential-guide attention network (GeoAN) for downscaling, which can produce high-resolution data from the given low-resolution data. Quantitative and visual comparisons reveal our GeoAN producing better results in most metrics. Using GeoAN, historical meteorological data called MDG625 has been produced daily since 1940.
Ye Li, Ye Huang, Yunshan Zhang, Wei Du, Shanshan Zhang, Tianhao He, Yan Li, Yan Chen, Fangfang Ding, Lin Huang, Haibin Xia, Wenjun Meng, Min Liu, and Shu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1091–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1091-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1091-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are typical persistent organic pollutants (POPs) listed among the 12 initial POPs that should be prohibited or limited under the Stockholm Convention. They are widely present in the environment and pose a threat to human health and ecosystems. Emission estimation for them is essential to understand and evaluate their environment fate and associated health effect. This work developed 12 dioxin-like UP-PCBs from 66 sources from 1960 to 2019 in China.
Bowen Cao, Le Yu, Xuecao Li, Min Chen, Xia Li, Pengyu Hao, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5403–5421, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5403-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the study, the first 1 km global cropland proportion dataset for 10 000 BCE–2100 CE was produced through the harmonization and downscaling framework. The mapping result coincides well with widely used datasets at present. With improved spatial resolution, our maps can better capture the cropland distribution details and spatial heterogeneity. The dataset will be valuable for long-term simulations and precise analyses. The framework can be extended to specific regions or other land use types.
Jiayi Fang, Thomas Wahl, Jian Fang, Xun Sun, Feng Kong, and Min Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4403–4416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4403-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A comprehensive assessment of compound flooding potential is missing for China. We investigate dependence, drivers, and impacts of storm surge and precipitation for coastal China. Strong dependence exists between driver combinations, with variations of seasons and thresholds. Sea level rise escalates compound flood potential. Meteorology patterns are pronounced for low and high compound flood potential. Joint impacts from surge and precipitation were much higher than from each individually.
V. Badenko, A. Fedotov, D. Zotov, S. Lytkin, D. Volgin, R. D. Garg, and M. Liu
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-5-W2, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-5-W2-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-5-W2-1-2019, 2019
Xuewei Dang, Liang Zhou, Xiaoen Li, Haowei Mu, Lei Che, and Fuwei Qiao
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 53, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-53-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-53-2019, 2019
Qinke Sun, Liang Zhou, Xuewei Dang, Bowei Hu, and Haowei Mu
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 1, 357, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-357-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-1-357-2019, 2019
Pan Hu, Qiang Zhang, Chong-Yu Xu, Shao Sun, and Jiayi Fang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
China is the country highly sensitive to flood disasters. Here we investigated flood disasters and relevant driving factors using meteorological disaster records s and also hourly rainfall data. We used the GeoDetector method to analyze potential driving factors behind flood disasters. We found increased rainstorm-induced flood disasters and increase in flood disaster frequency. Meanwhile, reduced flood-related death rates imply enhanced flood-mitigation infrastructure and facilities.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Always on My Mind: Indications of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among Those Affected by the 2021 Flood Event in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
An Impact Chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics. The multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Earthquake insurance in Iran: Solvency of local insurers in light of the current market practice
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-725, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health impacts are a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed 28 % showing signs of posttraumatic stress disorder one year later. Risk factors Include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-81, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers has been offering earthquake cover since 1990's. However, despite international best practices they do not still use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to continue accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practice with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modelling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Cited articles
Aerts, J. C. J. H., Botzen, W. J. W., Emanuel, K., Lin, N., De Moel, H., and
Michel-Kerjan, E. O.: Climate adaptation: Evaluating flood resilience
strategies for coastal megacities, Science, 344, 473–475,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1248222, 2014.
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., and Fewtrell, T. J.: A simple inertial
formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional
flood inundation modelling, J. Hydrol., 387, 33–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027, 2010.
Berke, P. R., Malecha, M. L., Yu, S., Lee, J., and Masterson, J. H.: Plan
integration for resilience scorecard: evaluating networks of plans in six US
coastal cities, J. Environ. Plan. Manag., 62, 901–920,
https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2018.1453354, 2019.
Bouwer, L. M.: Next-generation coastal risk models, Nat. Clim. Change, 8,
765–766, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0262-2, 2018.
Chen, G., Li, X., Liu, X., Chen, Y., Liang, X., Leng, J., Xu, X., Liao, W.,
Qiu, Y., Wu, Q., and Huang, K.: Global projections of future urban land
expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways, Nat. Commun., 11, 537,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x, 2020.
Cochrane, L., Cundill, G., Ludi, E., New, M., Nicholls, R. J., Wester, P.,
Cantin, B., Murali, K. S., Leone, M., Kituyi, E., and Landry, M. E.: A
reflection on collaborative adaptation research in Africa and Asia, Reg.
Environ. Change, 17, 1553–1561, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1140-6, 2017.
Dabrowa, A., Neal, J. C., and Bates, P. D.: Floods and Storms
Practical Exercises, in: Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks and Disasters, chap. 8,
edited by: Shroder, J. F., Paron, P., and Baldassarre, G. D., Elsevier,
Boston, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-394846-5.00008-4, 2015.
Du, S., Van Rompaey, A., Shi, P., and Wang, J.: A dual effect of urban
expansion on flood risk in the Pearl River Delta (China) revealed by
land-use scenarios and direct runoff simulation, Nat. Hazards, 77,
111–128, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1583-8, 2015.
Du, S., Scussolini, P., Ward, P. J., Zhang, M., Wen, J., Wang, L., Koks, E.,
Diaz-Loaiza, A., Gao, J., Ke, Q., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Hard or soft flood
adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai, Glob. Environ.
Chang., 61, 102037, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102037,
2020.
Dullo, T. T., Darkwah, G. K., Gangrade, S., Morales-Hernández, M., Sharif, M. B., Kalyanapu, A. J., Kao, S.-C., Ghafoor, S., and Ashfaq, M.: Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1739–1757, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021, 2021.
Fang, J., Lincke, D., Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Wolff, C., Merkens, J. L.,
Hinkel, J., Vafeidis, A. T., Shi, P., and Liu, M.: Coastal flood risks in
China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA, Sci. Total
Environ., 704, 135311, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135311, 2020.
Fang, J., Wahl, T., Zhang, Q., Muis, S., Hu, P., Fang, J., Du, S., Dou, T.,
and Shi, P.: Extreme sea levels along coastal China: uncertainties and
implications, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 35, 405–418,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01964-0, 2021.
Gori, A., Blessing, R., Juan, A., Brody, S., and Bedient, P.: Characterizing
urbanization impacts on floodplain through integrated land use, hydrologic,
and hydraulic modeling, J. Hydrol., 568, 82–95,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.053, 2019.
Gounaridis, D., Chorianopoulos, I., Symeonakis, E., and Koukoulas, S.: A
Random Forest-Cellular Automata modelling approach to explore future land
use/cover change in Attica (Greece), under different socio-economic
realities and scales, Sci. Total Environ., 646, 320–335,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.302, 2019.
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J.: Future
flood losses in major coastal cities, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 802–806,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1979, 2013.
Haynes, P., Hehl-Lange, S., and Lange, E.: Mobile Augmented Reality for Flood
Visualisation, Environ. Modell. Softw., 109, 380–389,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.012, 2018.
He, C., Liu, Z., Wu, J., Pan, X., Fang, Z., Li, J., and Bryan, B. A.: Future
global urban water scarcity and potential solutions, Nat. Commun., 12,
1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25026-3, 2021.
Hoch, J. M., Eilander, D., Ikeuchi, H., Baart, F., and Winsemius, H. C.: Evaluating the impact of model complexity on flood wave propagation and inundation extent with a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model coupling framework, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1723–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1723-2019, 2019.
Hunt, A. and Watkiss, P.: Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: A
review of the literature, Clim. Change, 104, 13–49,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9975-6, 2011.
Huong, H. T. L. and Pathirana, A.: Urbanization and climate change impacts on future urban flooding in Can Tho city, Vietnam, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 379–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-379-2013, 2013.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A:
Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415379, 2014.
Jia, H., Chen, F., Pan, D., Du, E., Wang, L., Wang, N., and Yang, A.: Flood
risk management in the Yangtze River basin – Comparison of 1998 and 2020
events, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 68, 102724,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102724, 2022.
Kabat, P., Fresco, L. O., Stive, M. J. F., Veerman, C. P., van Alphen, J. S.
L. J., Parmet, B. W. A. H., Hazeleger, W., and Katsman, C. A.: Dutch coasts
in transition, Nat. Geosci., 2, 450–452, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo572, 2009.
Kim, Y. and Newman, G.: Advancing scenario planning through integrating
urban growth prediction with future flood risk models, Comput. Environ.
Urban Syst., 82, 101498,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101498, 2020.
Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D. A., Hay, C. C., Horton, R. M., Kulp,
S., Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D., and Strauss, B. H.: Evolving understanding
of Antarctic ice-sheet physics and ambiguity in probabilistic sea-level
projections, Earth's Future, 5, 1217–1233, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000663, 2017.
Lai, C., Shao, Q., Chen, X., Wang, Z., Zhou, X., Yang, B., and Zhang, L.:
Flood risk zoning using a rule mining based on ant colony algorithm, J.
Hydrol., 542, 268–280, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.003,
2016.
Liang, X., Liu, X., Li, X., Chen, Y., Tian, H., and Yao, Y.: Delineating
multi-scenario urban growth boundaries with a CA-based FLUS model and
morphological method, Landscape Urban Plan., 177, 47–63,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.04.016, 2018.
Lin, W., Sun, Y., Nijhuis, S., and Wang, Z.: Scenario-based flood risk
assessment for urbanizing deltas using future land-use simulation (FLUS):
Guangzhou Metropolitan Area as a case study, Sci. Total Environ., 739,
139899, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139899, 2020.
Liu, J., Kuang, W., Zhang, Z., Xu, X., Qin, Y., Ning, J., Zhou, W., Zhang,
S., Li, R., Yan, C., Wu, S., Shi, X., Jiang, N., Yu, D., Pan, X., and Chi,
W.: Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns and causes of land use changes
in China since the late 1980s, Dili Xuebao/Acta Geogr. Sin., 69, 3–14,
https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201401001, 2014.
Liu, X., Liang, X., Li, X., Xu, X., Ou, J., Chen, Y., Li, S., Wang, S., and
Pei, F.: A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple
land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects, Landscape Urban
Plan., 168, 94–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.09.019, 2017.
Muis, S., Güneralp, B., Jongman, B., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.:
Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban
expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data, Sci. Total Environ.,
538, 445–457, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.068, 2015.
Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.:
A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels, Nat. Commun., 7,
11969, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969, 2016.
Nithila Devi, N., Sridharan, B., and Kuiry, S. N.: Impact of urban sprawl on
future flooding in Chennai city, India, J. Hydrol., 574, 486–496,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.041, 2019.
O'Loughlin, F. E., Neal, J., Schumann, G. J. P., Beighley, E., and Bates, P.
D.: A LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of the middle reach of the Congo, J.
Hydrol., 580, 124203, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124203, 2020.
Parodi, M. U., Giardino, A., van Dongeren, A., Pearson, S. G., Bricker, J. D., and Reniers, A. J. H. M.: Uncertainties in coastal flood risk assessments in small island developing states, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2397–2414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2397-2020, 2020.
Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J.,
Horton, R., Knuuti, K., Moss, R., Obeysekera, J., Sallenger, A., and Weiss,
J.: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment,
NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO, 1–37,
https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/sites/default/files/NOAA_SLR_r3_0.pdf (last access: 17 May 2021), 2012.
Pecl, G. T., Araújo, M. B., Bell, J. D., Blanchard, J., Bonebrake, T.
C., Chen, I. C., Clark, T. D., Colwell, R. K., Danielsen, F., Evengård,
B., Falconi, L., Ferrier, S., Frusher, S., Garcia, R. A., Griffis, R. B.,
Hobday, A. J., Janion-Scheepers, C., Jarzyna, M. A., Jennings, S., Lenoir,
J., Linnetved, H. I., Martin, V. Y., McCormack, P. C., McDonald, J.,
Mitchell, N. J., Mustonen, T., Pandolfi, J. M., Pettorelli, N., Popova, E.,
Robinson, S. A., Scheffers, B. R., Shaw, J. D., Sorte, C. J. B., Strugnell,
J. M., Sunday, J. M., Tuanmu, M. N., Vergés, A., Villanueva, C.,
Wernberg, T., Wapstra, E., and Williams, S. E.: Biodiversity redistribution
under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being, Science, 355, eaai9214, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aai9214, 2017.
Rajib, A., Liu, Z., Merwade, V., Tavakoly, A. A., and Follum, M. L.: Towards
a large-scale locally relevant flood inundation modeling framework using
SWAT and LISFLOOD-FP, J. Hydrol., 581, 124406,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124406, 2020.
Ramaswami, A., Russell, A. G., Culligan, P. J., Rahul Sharma, K., and Kumar,
E.: Meta-principles for developing smart, sustainable, and healthy cities,
Science, 352, 940–943, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf7160, 2016.
Reckien, D., Salvia, M., Heidrich, O., Church, J. M., Pietrapertosa, F., De
Gregorio-Hurtado, S., D'Alonzo, V., Foley, A., Simoes, S. G., Krkoška
Lorencová, E., Orru, H., Orru, K., Wejs, A., Flacke, J., Olazabal, M.,
Geneletti, D., Feliu, E., Vasilie, S., Nador, C., Krook-Riekkola, A.,
Matosović, M., Fokaides, P. A., Ioannou, B. I., Flamos, A., Spyridaki,
N. A., Balzan, M. V., Fülöp, O., Paspaldzhiev, I., Grafakos, S., and
Dawson, R.: How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment
of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28, J. Clean. Prod., 191,
207–219, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.220, 2018.
Shan, X., Yin, J., and Wang, J.: Risk assessment of shanghai extreme flooding
under the land use change scenario, Nat. Hazards, 110, 1039–1060,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04978-1, 2022.
Shanghai Municipal People's Government: Shanghai Master Plan (2017–2035), Shanghai Urban Planning and Land Resource Administration Bureau, Shanghai, http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/newshanghai/xxgkfj/2035004.pdf (last access: 15 May 2021), 2018.
Song, J., Fu, X., Wang, R., Peng, Z.-R., and Gu, Z.: Does planned retreat
matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced
by sea level rise, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Gl., 23, 703–733,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9756-x, 2018.
Sosa, J., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Neal, J., and Bates, P.: A toolbox to
quickly prepare flood inundation models for LISFLOOD-FP simulations,
Environ. Modell. Softw., 123, 104561,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104561, 2020.
Sun, L., Chen, J., Li, Q., and Huang, D.: Dramatic uneven urbanization of
large cities throughout the world in recent decades, Nat. Commun., 11,
5366, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19158-1, 2020.
Tessler, Z. D., Vorosmarty, C. J., Grossberg, M., Gladkova, I., Aizenman,
H., Syvitski, J. P. M., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E.: Profiling risk and
sustainability in coastal deltas of the world, Science, 349,
638–643, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3574, 2015.
United Nations: Factsheet: People and oceans, https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Ocean-fact-sheet-package.pdf (last access: 17 June 2021), 2017.
United Nations: 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects, https://population.un.org/wup/ (last access: 16 May 2021), 2018.
Van Coppenolle, R. and Temmerman, S.: A global exploration of tidal wetland
creation for nature-based flood risk mitigation in coastal cities, Estuar.
Coast. Shelf S., 226, 106262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106262, 2019.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva,
S., Jackson, L. P., and Feyen, L.: Global probabilistic projections of
extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard, Nat.
Commun., 9, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w, 2018.
Wang, Z., Lai, C., Chen, X., Yang, B., Zhao, S., and Bai, X.: Flood hazard
risk assessment model based on random forest, J. Hydrol., 527, 1130–1141,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.008, 2015.
Wing, O. E. J., Sampson, C. C., Bates, P. D., Quinn, N., Smith, A. M., and
Neal, J. C.: A flood inundation forecast of Hurricane Harvey using a
continental-scale 2D hydrodynamic model, J. Hydrol. X, 4, 100039,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2019.100039, 2019.
Xian, S., Yin, J., Lin, N., and Oppenheimer, M.: Influence of risk factors
and past events on flood resilience in coastal megacities: Comparative
analysis of NYC and Shanghai, Sci. Total Environ., 610–611, 1251–1261,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.229, 2018.
Xu, K., Fang, J., Fang, Y., Sun, Q., Wu, C., and Liu, M.: The Importance of
Digital Elevation Model Selection in Flood Simulation and a Proposed Method
to Reduce DEM Errors: A Case Study in Shanghai, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sc., 12, 890–902,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00377-z, 2021.
Xu, W. and Yang, L.: Evaluating the urban land use plan with transit
accessibility, Sustain. Cities Soc., 45, 474–485,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.11.042, 2019.
Xu, X.: China GDP Spatial Distribution Kilometer Grid Dataset, Data Registration and publishing System of Resources and Environmental Sciences Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences [data set],
http://www.resdc.cn/DOI/doi.aspx?DOIid=33 (last access: 18 February 2021), 2017a.
Xu, X.: China Population Spatial Distribution Kilometer Grid Dataset, Data Registration and publishing System of Resources and Environmental Sciences Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[data set], http://www.resdc.cn/DOI/DOI.aspx?DOIid=32 (last access: 18 February 2021), 2017b.
Xu, X., Liu, J., Zhang, Z., Zhou, W., Zhang, S., Li, R., Yan, C., Wu, S., and
Shi, X.: A Time Series Land Ecosystem Classification Dataset of China in
Five-Year Increments (1990–2010), J. Glob. Chang. Data Discov., 1,
52–59, https://doi.org/10.3974/geodp.2017.01.08, 2017.
Yin, J., Yu, D., Yin, Z., Wang, J., and Xu, S.: Modelling the combined
impacts of sea-level rise and land subsidence on storm tides induced
flooding of the Huangpu River in Shanghai, China, Clim. Change, 119,
919–932, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0749-9, 2013.
Yin, J., Jonkman, S., Lin, N., Yu, D., Aerts, J., Wilby, R., Pan, M., Wood,
E., Bricker, J., Ke, Q., Zeng, Z., Zhao, Q., Ge, J., and Wang, J.: Flood
Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?, Earth's Future,
8, e2020EF001614, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001614, 2020.
Zhai, Y., Yao, Y., Guan, Q., Liang, X., Li, X., Pan, Y., Yue, H., Yuan, Z.,
and Zhou, J.: Simulating urban land use change by integrating a
convolutional neural network with vector-based cellular automata, Int. J.
Geogr. Inf. Sci., 34, 1475–1499, https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2020.1711915,
2020.
Zhao, G., Bates, P., and Neal, J.: The Impact of Dams on Design Floods in the
Conterminous US, Water Resour. Res., 56, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025380,
2020.
Zhao, L., Song, J., and Peng, Z.-R.: Modeling Land-Use Change and Population
Relocation Dynamics in Response to Different Sea Level Rise Scenarios: Case
Study in Bay County, Florida, J. Urban Plan. Dev., 143, 04017012,
https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)up.1943-5444.0000398, 2017.
Zhou, L., Dang, X., Sun, Q., and Wang, S.: Multi-scenario simulation of urban
land change in Shanghai by random forest and CA-Markov model, Sustain.
Cities Soc., 55, 102045, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102045, 2020.
Zhou, Q., Leng, G., Su, J., and Ren, Y.: Comparison of urbanization and
climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning
and drainage adaptation, Sci. Total Environ., 658, 24–33,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.184, 2019.
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint