Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
Pauline Combarnous
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
LAERO, Université de Toulouse, UT3, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Felix Erdmann
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Olivier Caumont
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Météo-France, Direction des opérations pour la prévision, Toulouse, France
Éric Defer
LAERO, Université de Toulouse, UT3, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Maud Martet
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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Pierre Brousseau, Valérie Vogt, Etienne Arbogast, Maud Martet, Guillaume Thomas, and Loïk Berre
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2642, 2025
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Since October 2024, the Météo-France operational convective scale model AROME-France uses a three-dimensional ensemble-based variational data assimilation system. This allows observations to be spatialised in a flow-dependent way, leading to improved initial conditions. Numerous sensitivity studies allowed to configure this scheme in an operational context. Major positive impacts on the forecast quality have been demonstrated over a long period and on several severe meteorological situations.
Andrea Kolínská, Ivana Kolmašová, Eric Defer, Ondřej Santolík, and Stéphane Pédeboy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1791–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1791-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1791-2025, 2025
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We contribute to understanding differences in lightning flashes of opposite polarity by explaining distinct in-cloud processes after return strokes. Using data from multiple sensors, including individual Lightning Mapping Array stations, we reveal that positive flashes sustain strong high-frequency radiation due to the recharging of their in-cloud leader; this is in contrast to negative flashes, for which this activity declines rapidly.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
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The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Vincent Forcadell, Clotilde Augros, Olivier Caumont, Kévin Dedieu, Maxandre Ouradou, Cloé David, Jordi Figueras i Ventura, Olivier Laurantin, and Hassan Al-Sakka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6707–6734, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, 2024
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This study demonstrates the potential of enhancing severe-hail detection through the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to dual-polarization radar data. It is shown that current methods can be calibrated to significantly enhance their performance for severe-hail detection. This study establishes the foundation for the solution of a more complex problem: the estimation of the maximum size of hailstones on the ground using deep learning applied to radar data.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
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Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
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This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Frédéric Burnet, Julien Delanoë, Susana Jorquera, Yann Seity, and Vinciane Unger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5415–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, 2022
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Cloud radars and microwave radiometers offer the potential to improve fog forecasts when assimilated into a high-resolution model. As this process can be complex, a retrieval of model variables is sometimes made as a first step. In this work, results from a 1D-Var algorithm for the retrieval of temperature, humidity and cloud liquid water content are presented. The algorithm is applied first to a synthetic dataset and then to a dataset of real measurements from a recent field campaign.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021
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On 14–15 October 2018, in the Aude department (France), a heavy-precipitation event produced up to about 300 mm of rain in 11 h. Simulations carried out show that the former Hurricane Leslie, while involved, was not the first supplier of moisture over the entire event. The location of the highest rainfall was primarily driven by the location of a quasi-stationary front and secondarily by the location of precipitation bands downwind of mountains bordering the Mediterranean Sea.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Benoît Vié, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, and Mary Borderies
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4929–4946, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, 2021
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This paper presents work towards making retrievals on the liquid water content in fog and low clouds. Future retrievals will rely on a radar simulator and high-resolution forecast. In this work, real observations are used to assess the errors associated with the simulator and forecast. A selection method to reduce errors associated with the forecast is proposed. It is concluded that the distribution of errors matches the requirements for future retrievals.
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021
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This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 463–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, 2021
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The assimilation impact of four observation data sets on forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay data set with information on humidity has the largest impact on analyses and forecasts, representing an evenly spread and frequent data set for each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant.
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Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the...
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