Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3 d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm
Yair Rinat
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Francesco Marra
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy
Moshe Armon
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Asher Metzger
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Yoav Levi
Israel Meteorological Service, Beit Dagan, Israel
Pavel Khain
Israel Meteorological Service, Beit Dagan, Israel
Elyakom Vadislavsky
Israel Meteorological Service, Beit Dagan, Israel
Marcelo Rosensaft
Geological Survey of Israel, Jerusalem, Israel
Efrat Morin
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Related authors
Davide Zoccatelli, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yair Rinat, James A. Smith, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2665–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2665-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2665-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a comparison of flood properties over multiple Mediterranean and desert catchments. While in Mediterranean areas floods are related to rainfall amount, in deserts we observed a strong connection with the characteristics of the more intense part of storms. Because of the different mechanisms involved, despite having significantly shorter and more localized storms, deserts are able to produce floods with a magnitude comparable to Mediterranean areas.
Shai Abir, Hamish A. McGowan, Yonatan Shaked, Hezi Gildor, Efrat Morin, and Nadav G. Lensky
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding air–sea heat exchange is vital for studying ocean dynamics. Eddy covariance measurements over the Gulf of Eilat revealed a 3.22 m yr-1 evaporation rate, which is inconsistent with bulk formulae estimations in stable atmospheric conditions, requiring bulk formulae to be revisited in these environments. The surface fluxes have a net cooling effect on the gulf water on an annual mean (-79 W m-2), balanced by a strong exchange flux between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Eilat.
Kevin Kenfack, Francesco Marra, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou, Alain T. Tamoffo, and Derbetini A. Vondou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1257, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study show that moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies and vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomaly were crucial mechanisms on the anomalous October 2019 exceptional rainfall increase over West Central Africa. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment and management in the region and to improve our resilience to the ongoing climate change.
Joëlle C. Rieder, Franziska Aemisegger, Elad Dente, and Moshe Armon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-539, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Sahara was wetter in the past and may become wetter in the future. Lake remnants are evidence of the desert’s wetter past. If the Sahara gets wetter in the future, these lakes may serve as a water resource. However, it is unclear how these lakes get filled and how moisture is carried into the desert and converted into rain in the first place. Therefore, we examine processes currently leading to the filling of a dry lake in the Sahara, which can help in assessing future water availability.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
'Train effect' is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall, sometimes floods, and reported in N. America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains were identified by radar images, associated with Cyprus Lows, sharing the following features: Found at the cold sector south of the low center, at the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km, last 1–3 hours and yield 35 mm rainfall, up to 60 mm.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2594, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level PV anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptical analysis.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, and Efrat Morin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1530, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of extreme precipitation probability at various spatial-temporal scales is crucial. We estimate extreme precipitation return levels at multiple scales (10 min–24 h, 0.25–500 km2) in the eastern Mediterranean using radar data. We show our estimates are comparable to those derived from averaged daily rain gauges. We then explore multi-scale extreme precipitation across coastal, mountainous, and desert regions.
Haggai Eyal, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, and Nadav G. Lensky
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 547–574, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extracting paleoenvironmets from sedimentologic and geomorphic records is a main goal in Earth sciences. We study a chain of processes connecting causative Mediterranean cyclones, coeval floods, storm waves generated by mesoscale funneled wind, and coastal gravel transport. This causes northward dispersion of gravel along the modern Dead Sea coast, which has also persisted since the late Pleistocene, resulting in beach berms and fan deltas always being deposited north of channel mouths.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Sella Nevo, Efrat Morin, Adi Gerzi Rosenthal, Asher Metzger, Chen Barshai, Dana Weitzner, Dafi Voloshin, Frederik Kratzert, Gal Elidan, Gideon Dror, Gregory Begelman, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Hila Noga, Ira Shavitt, Liora Yuklea, Moriah Royz, Niv Giladi, Nofar Peled Levi, Ofir Reich, Oren Gilon, Ronnie Maor, Shahar Timnat, Tal Shechter, Vladimir Anisimov, Yotam Gigi, Yuval Levin, Zach Moshe, Zvika Ben-Haim, Avinatan Hassidim, and Yossi Matias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4013–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Early flood warnings are one of the most effective tools to save lives and goods. Machine learning (ML) models can improve flood prediction accuracy but their use in operational frameworks is limited. The paper presents a flood warning system, operational in India and Bangladesh, that uses ML models for forecasting river stage and flood inundation maps and discusses the models' performances. In 2021, more than 100 million flood alerts were sent to people near rivers over an area of 470 000 km2.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall using radar data, and we use it to examine coastal and orographic effects on extremes. We identify three regimes, directly related to precipitation physical processes, which respond differently to these forcings. The methods and results are of interest for researchers and practitioners using radar for the analysis of extremes, risk managers, water resources managers, and climate change impact studies.
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Uri Dayan, Itamar M. Lensky, Baruch Ziv, and Pavel Khain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1583–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An intense rainstorm hit the Middle East between 24 and 27 April 2018. The storm reached its peak over Israel on 26 April when a heavy flash flood took the lives of 10 people. The rainfall was comparable to the long-term annual rainfall in the southern Negev. The timing was the end of the rainy season when rain is rare and spotty. The study analyses the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that made this rainstorm one of the latest spring severe events in the region during the last 3 decades.
Leenes Uzan, Smadar Egert, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Elyakom Vadislavsky, and Pinhas Alpert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12177–12192, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12177-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12177-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Detection of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is crucial to various fields, from air pollution assessment to weather prediction. We examined the diurnal summer PBL height by eight ceilometers in Israel, radiosonde profiles, the global IFS, and regional COSMO models. Our analysis utilized the bulk Richardson number method, the parcel method, and the wavelet covariance transform method. A novel correction tool to improve model results against in-situ ceilometer measurements is introduced.
Moshe Armon, Francesco Marra, Yehouda Enzel, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1227–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1227-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1227-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation events (HPEs), occurring around the globe, lead to natural hazards as well as to water resource recharge. Rainfall patterns during HPEs vary from one case to another and govern their effect. Thus, correct prediction of these patterns is crucial for coping with HPEs. However, the ability of weather models to generate such patterns is unclear. Here, we characterise rainfall patterns during HPEs based on weather radar data and evaluate weather model simulations of these events.
Matty Sharon, Amir Sagy, Ittai Kurzon, Shmuel Marco, and Marcelo Rosensaft
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 125–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology for mapping faults that constitute far-field (ground motion) and near-field (surface rupture) hazards to structures, particularly for critical facilities. For categorising faults, the criteria are adjusted to local tectonic characteristics, combining data of geological maps, instrumental seismicity, geodesy and past earthquakes. Our results adhere to international standards of hazard assessment for nuclear power plants and improve the regional tectonic understanding.
Davide Zoccatelli, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yair Rinat, James A. Smith, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2665–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2665-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2665-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a comparison of flood properties over multiple Mediterranean and desert catchments. While in Mediterranean areas floods are related to rainfall amount, in deserts we observed a strong connection with the characteristics of the more intense part of storms. Because of the different mechanisms involved, despite having significantly shorter and more localized storms, deserts are able to produce floods with a magnitude comparable to Mediterranean areas.
William Amponsah, Pierre-Alain Ayral, Brice Boudevillain, Christophe Bouvier, Isabelle Braud, Pascal Brunet, Guy Delrieu, Jean-François Didon-Lescot, Eric Gaume, Laurent Lebouc, Lorenzo Marchi, Francesco Marra, Efrat Morin, Guillaume Nord, Olivier Payrastre, Davide Zoccatelli, and Marco Borga
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1783–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1783-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1783-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The EuroMedeFF database comprises 49 events that occurred in France, Israel, Germany, Slovenia, Romania, and Italy. The dataset may be of help to hydrologists as well as other scientific communities because it offers benchmark data for the verification of flash flood hydrological models and for hydro-meteorological forecast systems. It provides, moreover, a sample of rainfall and flood discharge extremes in different climates.
Philipp Gasch, Daniel Rieger, Carolin Walter, Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Peter Knippertz, and Bernhard Vogel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13573–13604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents simulations of a severe dust event in the Eastern Mediterranean with a weather prediction model using very high spatial resolution. Due to the high resolution, the small-scale features of the event are captured in great detail. Consequently, the previously erroneous forecast of the event is improved drastically. In addition, the interaction of mineral dust with radiation inside the model has been included as a part of this work and is presented here.
Idit Belachsen, Francesco Marra, Nadav Peleg, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5165–5180, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5165-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5165-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Spatiotemporal rainfall patterns in arid environments are not well-known. We derived properties of convective rain cells over the arid Dead Sea region from a long-term radar archive. We found differences in cell properties between synoptic systems and between flash-flood and non-flash-flood events. Large flash floods are associated with slow rain cells, directed downstream with the main catchment axis. Results from this work can be used for hydrological models and stochastic storm simulations.
Francesco Marra, Elisa Destro, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Davide Zoccatelli, Jean Dominique Creutin, Fausto Guzzetti, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4525–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies have reported a systematic underestimation of debris flow occurrence thresholds, due to the use of sparse networks in non-stationary rain fields. We analysed high-resolution radar data to show that spatially aggregated estimates (e.g. satellite data) largely reduce this issue, in light of a reduced estimation variance. Our findings are transferable to other situations in which lower envelope curves are used to predict point-like events in the presence of non-stationary fields.
Francesco Marra, Efrat Morin, Nadav Peleg, Yiwen Mei, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2389–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2389-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall frequency analyses from radar and satellite estimates over the eastern Mediterranean are compared examining different climatic conditions. Correlation between radar and satellite results is high for frequent events and decreases with return period. The uncertainty related to record length is larger for drier climates. The agreement between different sensors instills confidence on their use for rainfall frequency analysis in ungauged areas of the Earth.
Yoav Levi and Itzhak Carmona
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-60, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal forecast is a scientific challenge drawing increase attention of both the scientific community and the decision makers. The manuscript deals with evaluation of seasonal forecasts skill taking into account the rapid changes in both climate and socio-economic development. An attempt to give a solution to overcome rapid changes may provide local stakeholders with a new way of using seasonal forecast.
N. Peleg, E. Shamir, K. P. Georgakakos, and E. Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 567–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-567-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-567-2015, 2015
N. Peleg, M. Ben-Asher, and E. Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2195–2208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013, 2013
E. Shamir, L. Ben-Moshe, A. Ronen, T. Grodek, Y. Enzel, K. P. Georgakakos, and E. Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1021–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1021-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1021-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping through Copula Bayesian Multi-Modelling of Precipitation Products
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Model based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk in coastal areas caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Flood Occurrence and Impact Models for Socioeconomic Applications over Canada and the United States
A downward counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Assessing the ability of a new seamless short-range ensemble rainfall product to anticipate flash floods in the French Mediterranean area
Sentinel-1-based analysis of the severe flood over Pakistan 2022
Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping
Better prepared but less resilient: the paradoxical impact of frequent flood experience on adaptive behavior and resilience
Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
Hydrometeorological controls and social response for the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States
Quantifying hazards resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource constrained project scheduling problem
Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
The potential of open-access data for flood estimations: uncovering inundation hotspots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, through a normalized flood severity index
Analyzing the informative value of alternative hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems at the global scale
A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale
Hydrological drought forecasting under a changing environment in the Luanhe River basin
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change
Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings
Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
Brief communication: Inclusiveness in designing an early warning system for flood resilience
Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis
Bare-earth DEM generation from ArcticDEM and its use in flood simulation
Comparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation maps
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-26, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the Global Copula Bayesian Model Averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-22, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depths and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH aims to reduce the impact of floods and is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depths quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-29, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges are coinciding, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Our model based scenario analysis shows that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street-level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of details. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase of population displaced of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the U.S.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-224, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent run off reaction.
Our results show, that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks by the factor 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinasa, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-209, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on experiences in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions in order to maximise efficiency and estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí river basin (Catalonia, Spain) experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. The main hydrometeorological factors are investigated. The social response times are also collected and compared with catchment dynamics in order to examine the adequacy of monitoring and warning issuance. Finally, the study provides recommendations aimed at minimizing losses and improving preparedness for similar natural hazards in the future.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1511, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of buildings infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1106, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic Model (M-DBCM) with two major improvements: 1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D∞ algorithm was implemented to identify the flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed; 2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Pappenberger, F., and Wetterhall, F.: Operational
early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe, Environ.
Sci. Policy, 21, 35–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.01.008, 2012. a
Alfieri, L., Berenguer, M., Knechtl, V., Liechti, K., Sempere-Torres, D., and
Zappa, M.: Flash Flood Forecasting Based on Rainfall Thresholds, in:
Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg,
1–38,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_49-1, 2015. a, b
Amponsah, W., Marchi, L., Zoccatelli, D., Boni, G., Cavalli, M., Comiti, F.,
Crema, S., Lucía, A., Marra, F., and Borga, M.: Hydrometeorological
Characterization of a Flash Flood Associated with Major Geomorphic Effects:
Assessment of Peak Discharge Uncertainties and Analysis of the Runoff
Response, J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 3063–3077,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0081.1, 2016. a
Archer, D. R., Leesch, F., and Harwood, K.: Learning from the extreme River
Tyne flood in January 2005, Water Environ. J., 21, 133–141,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2006.00058.x, 2007. a
Armon, M., Dente, E., Smith, J. A., Enzel, Y., and Morin, E.: Synoptic-Scale
Control over Modern Rainfall and Flood Patterns in the Levant Drylands with
Implications for Past Climates, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1077–1096,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0013.1, 2018. a
Armon, M., Marra, F., Enzel, Y., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., and Morin, E.: Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1227–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1227-2020, 2020. a, b
Avni, Y. and Wieler, N.: The geological map of Israel, 1:50,000, Sheet 18-IV: SdeBoqer, Isr. Geol. Surv., Jerusalem, 2013. a
Avni, Y., Bartov, Y., and Sneh, A.: The geological map of Israel, 1:50,000. Sheet 22-I: HarArdon, Isr. Geol. Surv., Jerusalem, 2016. a
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M.,
and Reinhardt, T.: Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction
with the COSMO model: Description and sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev.,
139, 3887–3905, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011. a
Barredo, J. I.: Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005, Nat. Hazards,
42, 125–148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9065-2, 2007. a, b
Bartsotas, N. S., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Anagnostou, E. N., Solomos, S., and
Kallos, G.: Moving toward Subkilometer Modeling Grid Spacings: Impacts on
Atmospheric and Hydrological Simulations of Extreme Flash Flood-Inducing
Storms, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 209–226,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0092.1, 2016. a
Belachsen, I., Marra, F., Peleg, N., and Morin, E.: Convective rainfall in a dry climate: relations with synoptic systems and flash-flood generation in the Dead Sea region, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5165–5180, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5165-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Benson, M. A. and Dalrymple, T.: General Field and Office Procedures for
Indirect Discharge Measurements, Technical Report, available at:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/twri/twri3-a1/html/pdf/twri_3-A1_a.pdf (last access: 10 May 2020),
1967. a
Berenguer, M., Corral, C., Sánchez-Diezma, R., and Sempere-Torres, D.:
Hydrological Validation of a Radar-Based Nowcasting Technique, J.
Hydrometeorol., 6, 532–549, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM433.1, 2005. a, b
Borga, M., Boscolo, P., Zanon, F., and Sangati, M.: Hydrometeorological
Analysis of the 29 August 2003 Flash Flood in the Eastern Italian Alps,
J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1049–1067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM593.1, 2007. a
Borga, M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jakob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic
response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris
flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014. a, b
Borga, M., Comiti, F., Ruin, I., and Marra, F.: Forensic analysis of flash
flood response, Wires, 6, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1338, 2019. a, b, c, d
Bracken, L. J. and Croke, J.: The concept of hydrological connectivity and its
contribution to understanding runoff-dominated geomorphic systems,
Hydrol. Process., 21, 1749–1763, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6313, 2007. a
Brunner, W. G.: HEC-RAS River Analysis System, Hydraulic reference manual, Version 5.0, US Army Crops of Engineers, 2016. a
Brutsaert, W.: Hydrology, An Introducation, Cambridge University Press, New
York, USA, 2005. a
Calvo, R. and Bartov, Y.: Hazeva Group, southern Israel: New observations, and
their implications for its stratigraphy, paleogeography, and
tectono-sedimentary regime, Israel J. Earth Sci., 50, 71–99,
https://doi.org/10.1092/B02L-6K04-UFQL-KUE3, 2001. a
Chappell, C. F.: Quasi-Stationary Convective Events, in: Mesoscale
Meteorology and Forecasting, edited by: Ray, P. S.,
American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, USA,
289–310,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-20-1_13, 1986. a
Collier, C. G.: Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 3–23, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.29, 2007. a, b, c
Creutin, J. D., Borga, M., Gruntfest, E., Lutoff, C., Zoccatelli, D., and Ruin,
I.: A space and time framework for analyzing human anticipation of flash
floods, J. Hydrol., 482, 14–24,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.009, 2013. a, b
Dan, Y., Raz, Z., Yaalon, D. H., and Koyumdjisky, H.: Soil Map of Israel, 1:500,000, Jerusalem, 1975. a
Dayan, U., Lensky, I. M., and Ziv, B.: Atmospheric Conditions Leading to an Exceptional Fatal Flash Flood in the Negev Desert, Israel, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-94, in review, 2020. a
Delrieu, G., Ducrocq, V., Gaume, E., Nicol, J., Payrastre, O., Yates, E.,
Kirstetter, P.-E., Andrieu, H., Ayral, P.-A., Bouvier, C., Creutin, J.-D.,
Livet, M., Anquetin, S., Lang, M., Neppel, L., Obled, C., Parent-Du-Chatelet,
J., Saulnier, G.-M., Walpersorf, A., and Wobrock, W.: The catastrophic
flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard region, France: a first
case study for the Cévennes-Vivarais Mediterranean
Hydrometeorological, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 34–52,
2005. a
Dey, K. D. and Yan, J.: Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and
Applications, CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, NY, USA, 2016. a
Dey, S. R., Plant, R. S., Roberts, N. M., and Migliorini, S.: Assessing
spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2935–2948,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2893, 2016. a
Dingman, S. L.: Physical hydrology, Waveland Press, Long Grove, IL, USA, https://doi.org/10.1177/030913337800200111, 2015. a
Doms, G., Förstner, J., Heise, E., Herzog, H.-J., Mironov, D.,
Raschendorfer, M., Reinhardt, T., Ritter, B., Schrodin, R., Schulz, J.-P.,
and Vogel, G.: A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO Model Part II: Physical Parameterization, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, Technical Report, p. 139, 2011. a
Doocy, S., Daniels, A., Murray, S., and Kirsch, T. D.: The Human Impact of
Floods: a Historical Review of Events and Systematic Literature Review, PLOS
Currents Disasters, 1, 1–32,
https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.f4deb457904936b07c09daa 98ee8171a, 2013. a, b, c
Doswell, A. C., Brooks, E. H., and Madox, A. R.: Flash flood forecasting: An
ingredients-based methodology, Weather Forecast., 11, 560–581,
1996. a
Downer, C. W. and Ogden, F. L.: GSSHA – User's Manual, Version 1.43, p. 190, 2002. a
DWD – Deutscher Wetterdienst: Wetter und Klima – Deutscher Wetterdienst – Startseite, https://www.dwd.de, last access: 10 May 2020. a
EMS Mekorot Projects Ltd: https://www.emsmekorotprojects.com/, last access: 24 January 2021. a
Engman, E. T.: Roughness Coefficients for Routing Surface Runoff, J. Irrig. Drainage Eng., https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1986)112:1(39), 1986. a, b
Faurès, J. M., Goodrich, D. C., Woolhiser, D. A., and Sorooshian, S.:
Impact of small-scale spatial rainfall variability on runoff modeling,
J. Hydrol., 173, 309–326, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(95)02704-S,
1995. a
Foody, G. M., Ghoneim, E. M., and Arnell, N. W.: Predicting locations
sensitive to flash flooding in an arid environment, J. Hydrol.,
292, 48–58, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.045, 2004. a
Gaume, E. and Borga, M.: Post-flood field investigations in upland catchments
after major flash floods: proposal of a methodology and illustrations,
J. Flood Risk Manag., 1, 175–189,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318x.2008.00023.x, 2008. a
Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A.,
Blaškovičová, L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu,
A., Daliakopoulos, I., Garcia, J., Irimescu, A., Kohnova, S., Koutroulis, A.,
Marchi, L., Matreata, S., Medina, V., Preciso, E., Sempere-Torres, D.,
Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., Tsanis, I., Velasco, D., and Viglione, A.: A
compilation of data on European flash floods, J. Hydrol., 367,
70–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.028, 2009. a, b, c, d
Gaume, E., Borga, M., Llasat, M., Maouche, S., Lang, M., and Diakakis, M.:
Mediterranean extreme floods and flash floods. Into Hydro-meteorological
extremes, The Mediterranean Region under Climate Change, A Scientific
Update, edited by: Thiébault, S. and Moatti, J.-P., IRD Éditions, Marseille, France, 133–144, 2016. a
Goldreich, Y.: The Climate of Israel, Observations, Research and
Imlementation, Springer, New York, USA, 2003. a
Greenbaum, N., Schwartz, U., Schick, A., and Enzel, Y.: Paleofloods and the
Estimation of Long Term Transmission Losses and Recharge to the Lower Nahal
Zin Alluvial Aquifer, Negev Desert, Israel, in: Ancient floods, modern
hazards: principles and applications of paleoflood hydrologydrology, edited
by: House, P., Webb, R., Baker, V., and Levish, D.,
NY, USA, 311–328,
2002a. a, b
Greenbaum, N., Schwartz, U., Schick, P. A., and Enzel, Y.: Paleo floods and
the Estimation of Long Term Transmission Losses and Recharge to the Lower
Nahal Zin Alluvial Aquifer, Negev Desert, Israel, in: Ancient Floods, Modern
Hazards Principles and Applications of Paleoflood Hydrology, Water Science
and Application, edited by: House, P. K., Webb, H. R., Baker, R. V., and
Levish, R. D., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, USA,
311–328, 2002b. a
Greenbaum, N., Ben-Zvi, A., Haviv, I., and Enzel, Y.: The hydrology and
paleohydrology of the Dead Sea tributaries, Geol. S. Am.
S., 401, 63–93, https://doi.org/10.1130/2006.2401(05), 2006. a
Grodek, T., Jacoby, Y., Morin, E., and Katz, O.: Effectiveness of exceptional
rainstorms on a small Mediterranean basin, Geomorphology, 159–160, 156–168,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.03.016, 2012. a
Gruntfest, E. and Handmer, J.: Coping With Flash Floods, Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, Netherlands,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2004.01.004, 2001. a
Haan, C. T. C. T.: Statistical methods in hydrology, Iowa State Press,
Iowa, USA,
2002. a
Hagelin, S., Son, J., Swinbank, R., McCabe, A., Robertsa, N., and Tennanta, W.:
The Met Office convective-scale ensemble, MOGREPS-UK, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2846–2861, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3135,
2017. a
Hirsch, F.: The geological map of Israel, 1:50,000. Sheet 19-II: HamakhteshHaqatan, Isr. Geol. Surv., Jerusalem, 1995. a
Hosking, J. R., Wallis, J. R., and Wood, E. F.: Estimation of the generalized
extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted moments,
Technometrics, 27, 251–261, https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1985.10488049, 1985. a
Inbar, M.: Natural disasters in israel, availabe at:
https://geo.hevra.haifa.ac.il/~inh/index.php/en/disasters-en/floods-en (last access: 10 May 2020),
2019. a
Israel Hydrological service: https://www.gov.il/he/departments/water_authority, last access: 24 January 2021 (in Hebrew). a
Kahana, R., Ziv, B., Enzel, Y., and Dayan, U.: Synoptic climatology of major
floods in the Negev Desert, Israel, Int. J. Climatol.,
22, 867–882, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.766, 2002. a
Kampf, S. K., Faulconer, J., Shaw, J. R., Lefsky, M., Wagenbrenner, J. W., and
Cooper, D. J.: Rainfall Thresholds for Flow Generation in Desert Ephemeral
Streams, Water Resour. Res., 54, 9935–9950,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023714, 2018. a
Karklinsky, M. and Morin, E.: Spatial characteristics of radar-derived
convective rain cells over southern Israel, Meteorol. Z., 15,
513–520, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0153, 2006. a
Khain, P., Levi, Y., Shtivelman, A., and Vadislavsky, E.: Improving the
precipitation forecast over the Eastern Mediterranean using a smoothed
time-lagged ensemble, Meteorol. Appl., 27, 1–17,
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1840, 2019. a, b, c
Kidd, C., Becker, A., Huffman, G. J., Muller, C. L., Joe, P.,
Skofronick-Jackson, G., and Kirschbaum, D. B.: So, how much of the Earth's
surface is covered by rain gauges?, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 98, 69–78, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00283.1, 2017. a, b
Lange, J.: Dynamics of transmission losses in large arid stream channel,
J. Hydrol., 306, 112–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.09.016,
2005. a
Lange, J., and Leibundgut, C: Surface runoff and sediment dynamics in arid and semi‐arid regions, in Understanding Water in a Dry Environment, edited by: Simmers, I., Taylor & Francis, Lisse, the Netherlands, 115–150, 2003. a
Lange, J., Leibundgut, C., Greenbaun, N., and Schick, A.: A noncalibrated
model for large, arid catchments, Water Resour. Res., 35, 2161–2172,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900038, 1999. a, b, c
Larsen, M. C., Conde, M. T. V., and Clark, R. A.: Landslide hazards associated
with flash-foods, with examples from the December, 1999 disaster in
Venezuela, in: Coping with Flash Floods, edited by: Gruntfest, E. and
Handmer, J., Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, Netherlands,
259–275, 2001. a
Liechti, K. and Zappa, M.: Verification of Short-Range Hydrological
Forecasts, in: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, edited
by: Qingyun, D., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L., and Schaake, J. C., Springer, Berlin and Heidelberg, Germany, 954–974,
2019. a
Limerinos, T. J.: Determination of the Manning Coefficient From Measured Bed
Roughness in Natural Channels, Technical Report, Geological Survey, Washington, DC, USA, 47 pp., 1970. a
Marani, M. and Ignaccolo, M.: A metastatistical approach to rainfall
extremes, Adv. Water Resour., 79, 121–126,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.03.001, 2015. a
Marra, F. and Morin, E.: Autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall in
semiarid-arid climate derived from high-resolution X-Band radar estimates,
Atmos. Res., 200, 126–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.020,
2018. a, b
Marra, F., Morin, E., Peleg, N., Mei, Y., and Anagnostou, E. N.: Intensity–duration–frequency curves from remote sensing rainfall estimates: comparing satellite and weather radar over the eastern Mediterranean, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2389–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2389-2017, 2017. a
Marra, F., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Anagnostou, E. N., and Morin, E.:
Metastatistical Extreme Value analysis of hourly rainfall from short
records: Estimation of high quantiles and impact of measurement errors,
Adv. Water Resour.,
117, 27–39,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.05.001, 2018. a, b
Marra, F., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Anagnostou, E. N., Bárdossy, A., and
Morin, E.: Precipitation frequency analysis from remotely sensed datasets: A
focused review, J. Hydrol., 574, 699–705, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.081, 2019a. a, b, c, d
Marra, F., Zoccatelli, D., Armon, M., and Morin, E.: A simplified MEV
formulation to model extremes emerging from multiple nonstationary underlying
processes, Adv. Water Resour., 127, 280–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.002, 2019b. a
Martens, B., Cabus, P., De Jongh, I., and Verhoest, N. E.: Merging weather
radar observations with ground-based measurements of rainfall using an
adaptive multiquadric surface fitting algorithm, J. Hydrol., 500,
84–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.011, 2013. a
MeteoSwiss – Federal Office of Meteorological and Climatology MeteoSwiss:
availabe at: http://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch, last access: 10 May 2020. a
Met Office: availabe at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/, last access: 10 May 2020. a
Michaud, J. D. and Sorooshian, S.: Effect of rainfall‐sampling errors on
simulations of desert flash floods, Water Resour. Res., 30,
2765–2775, https://doi.org/10.1029/94WR01273, 1994. a
Miniussi, A., and Marani, M. Estimation of daily rainfall extremes through the metastatistical extreme value distribution: Uncertainty minimization and implications for trend detection, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026535, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026535, 2020. a
Mishra, S. and Singh, V. P.: Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN)
Methodology, Water Science and Technology Library, Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, The Netherlands,
514 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-0147-1,
2003. a
Moawad, M. B.: Analysis of the flash flood occurred on 18 January 2010 in wadi
El Arish, Egypt (a case study), Geomat. Nat. Haz. Risk, 4,
254–274, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2012.731657, 2013. a
Moawad, M. B., Omar Abdel Aziz, A., and Mamtimin, B.: Flash floods in the
Sahara: a case study for the 28 January 2013 flood in Qena, Egypt,
Geomat. Nat. Haz. Risk, 7, 215–236,
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2014.885467, 2016. a
Montgomery, D. R. and Gran, K. B.: Downstream variations in the width of
bedrock channels, Water Resour. Res., 37, 1841–1846,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900393, 2001. a
Morin, E. and Yakir, H.: Hydrological impact and potential flooding of
convective rain cells in a semi-arid environment, Hydrolog. Sci.
J., 57, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841315, 2014. a, b
Morin, E., Enzel, Y., Shamir, U., and Garti, R.: The characteristic time scale
for basin hydrological response using radar data, J. Hydrol., 252,
85–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00451-6, 2001. a
Morin, E., Goodrich, D. C., Maddox, R. A., Gao, X., Gupta, H. V., and
Sorooshian, S.: Spatial patterns in thunderstorm rainfall events and their
coupling with watershed hydrological response, Adv. Water Resour.,
29, 843–860, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.07.014, 2006. a
Morin, E., Grodek, T., Dahan, O., Benito, G., Kulls, C., Jacoby, Y.,
Langenhove, G. V., Seely, M., and Enzel, Y.: Flood routing and alluvial
aquifer recharge along the ephemeral arid Kuiseb River, Namibia, J.
Hydrol., 368, 262–275, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.015,
2009a. a, b
Morin, E., Jacoby, Y., Navon, S., and Bet-Halachmi, E.: Towards flash-flood
prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information,
Adv. Water Resour., 32, 1066–1076,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.11.011, 2009b. a
Morin, E., Marra, F., and Armon, M.: Dryland Precipitation Climatology from
Satellite Observations, in: Satellite Precipitation Measurement: Volume 2,
edited by: Levizzani, V., Kidd, C., Kirschbaum, D. B., Kummerow, C. D.,
Nakamura, K., and Turk, F. J., Springer International
Publishing, Cham, UK,
843–859, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35798-6_19, 2020. a, b
Nouh, M.: Flood hydrograph estimation from arid catchment morphology,
Hydrol. Process., 4, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360040202, 1990. a
Overeem, A., Buishand, A., and Holleman, I.: Rainfall depth-duration-frequency
curves and their uncertainties, J. Hydrol., 348, 124–134,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.044, 2008. a
Peckham, S. D.: A New Algorithm for Creating DEMs with Smooth Elevation
Profiles, Proceedings of Geomorphometry, 2, 34–37, 2009. a
Petrucci, O., Aceto, L., Bianchi, C., Bigot, V., Brázdil, R., Pereira,
S., Kahraman, A., Kiliç, Ö., Kotroni, V., Llasat, M. C.,
Llasat-Botija, M., Papagiannaki, K., Pasqua, A. A., Řehoř, J., Geli, J. R.,
Salvati, P., Vinet, F., and Zêzere, J. L.: Flood fatalities in Europe,
1980–2018: Variability, features, and lessons to learn, Water
11, 1682, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081682, 2019. a
Pilgrim, D. H., Chapman, T. G., and Doran, D. G.: Problems of rainfall-runoff
modelling in arid and semiarid regions, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 33,
379–400, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668809491261, 1988. a, b, c
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K.,
Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S.,
Schmidli, J., Van Lipzig, N. P., and Leung, R.: A review on regional
convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and
challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475,
2015. a
Rinat, Y. and Armon, M.: Desert Flash Flood, 26-Apr-2018, TIB-AV-Portal, https://doi.org/10.5446/47152, 2020. a
Roberts, N.: Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of
precipitation forecasts from an NWP model, Meteorol. Appl., 15,
163–169, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.57, 2008. a
Roded, R.: The geological map of Israel, 1:50,000, Sheet 19-III: Oron, Isr. Geol. Surv., Jerusalem, 1982. a
Roded, R.: The geological map of Israel, 1:50,000. Sheet 19-I: Dimona, Isr. Geol. Surv., Jerusalem, 1996. a
Sadeh, Y., Cohen, H., Maman, S., and Blumberg, D. G.: Evaluation of manning's
n roughness coefficient in arid environments by using SAR backscatter,
Remote Sens., 10, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101505, 2018. a
Schwartz, C. S. and Sobash, R. A.: Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from
Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Neighborhood Approaches: A Review and
Recommendations, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 3379–3418,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0400.1, 2017. a
Schwartz, U.: Surface and near‐surface responses to floods in a large channel (Nahal Zin) in the context of an alluvial aquifer in a hyper‐arid environment, PhD diss., Department of Geography, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, 2001. a
S.C.S: Soil Conservation Service, National engineering handbook, section 4,
Hydrology, Technical Report, US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC, USA, 127 pp., 1972. a
Sempere-Torres, D., Berenguer, M., Corral, C., and Sanchez-Diezma, R.:
Improvements on flow forecasting using precipitation nowcasting based in
radar advection techniques: assessment of predictability and uncertainty
propagation, 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology,
Albuquerque, USA,
2005. a
Shamir, E., Ben-Moshe, L., Ronen, A., Grodek, T., Enzel, Y., Georgakakos, K. P., and Morin, E.: Geomorphology-based index for detecting minimal flood stages in arid alluvial streams, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1021–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1021-2013, 2013. a
Shammout, M., Shatanawi, M., and Nelson, J.: Curve Number Applications for
Restoration the Zarqa River Basin, Sustainability, 10, 586,
https://doi.org/10.3390/su10030586, 2018. a
Shmilovitz, Y., Morin, E., Rinat, Y., Haviv, I., Carmi, G., Mushkin, A., and
Enzel, Y.: Linking frequency of rainstorms, runoff generation and sediment
transport across hyperarid talus-pediment slopes, Earth Surf. Proc.
Land., 45, 1644–1659, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4836, 2020. a, b, c
Sivakumar B.: Chaos in hydrology: bridging determinism and stochasticity, Springer, the Netherlands, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2552-4, 2017. a
Sneh, A., Bartov, Y., Weissbrod, T., and Rosensaft, M.:
Geological Map of Israel, 1:200,000. Isr. Geol. Surv., 4 sheets, 1998. a
Sobash, R. A., Kain, J. S., Bright, D. R., Dean, A. R., Coniglio, M. C., and
Weiss, S. J.: Probabilistic forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based
on the identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model
forecasts, Weather Forecast., 26, 714–728,
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-10-05046.1, 2011. a
Sokol, Z. and Zacharov, P.: Nowcasting of precipitation by an NWP model using
assimilation of extrapolated radar reflectivity, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1072–1082, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.970, 2012. a
Stephan, K., Klink, S., and Schraff, C.: Assimilation of radar-derived rain
rates into the convective-scale model COSMO-DE at DWD, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1315–1326, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.269,
2008. a, b, c
Tarolli, P., Borga, M., Morin, E., and Delrieu, G.: Analysis of flash flood regimes in the North-Western and South-Eastern Mediterranean regions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1255–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1255-2012, 2012. a, b, c
Theis, S. E., Hense, A., and Damrath, U.: Probabilistic precipitation
forecasts from a deterministic model: a pragmatic approach, Meteorol.
Appl., 268, 257–268, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482705001763, 2005. a
Tooth, S.: Process, form and change in dryland rivers: A review of recent
research, Earth Sci. Rev., 51, 67–107,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-8252(00)00014-3, 2000. a, b
USGS: Estimating Basin Lagtime and Hydrograph-Timing Indexes Used to
Characterize Stormflows, Technical Report, availabe at:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2012/5110/pdf/sir2012-5110_text.pdf (last access: 10 May 2020),
2012. a
Vetter, T., Rieger, A. K., and Nicolay, A.: Disconnected runoff contributing
areas: Evidence provided by ancient watershed management systems in arid
north-eastern Marmarica (NW-Egypt), Geomorphology, 212, 41–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.10.002,
2014. a, b
Vincendon, B., Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., and Vié, B.: Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1529–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1529-2011, 2011. a
Vinet, F., Bigot, V., Petrucci, O., Papagiannaki, K., Llasat, M. C., Kotroni,
V., Boissier, L., Aceto, L., Grimalt, M., Llasat-Botija, M., Pasqua, A. A.,
Rossello, J., Kiliç, Ö., Kahraman, A., and Tramblay, Y.: Mapping
flood-related mortality in the mediterranean basin. Results from the MEFF
v2.0 DB, Water, 11, p. 2196, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102196, 2019. a
Wagener, T., Gupta, H., Yatheendradas, S., Goodrich, D., Unkrich, C., and
Schaffner, M.: Understanding sources of uncertainty in flash-flood
forecasting for semi-arid regions, IAHS-AISH, 313,
204–212, 2007. a
Walters, O. M.: Transmission losses in arid region, J. Hydraul.
Eng., 116, 129–138, 1990. a
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, J.
Am. Stat. Assoc., 102, p. 380, https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2007.s163, 2006. a
Wittenberg, L., Kutiel, H., Greenbaum, N., and Inbar, M.: Short-term changes
in the magnitude, frequency and temporal distribution of floods in the
Eastern Mediterranean region during the last 45 years – Nahal Oren, Mt.
Carmel, Israel, Geomorphology, 84, 181–191,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.01.046, 2007. a
Yair, A. and Kossovsky, A.: Climate and surface properties: Hydrological
response of small arid and semi-arid watersheds, Geomorphology, 42, 43–57,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00072-1, 2002. a
Yair, A. and Lavee, H.: Application of the concept of partial area
contribution to small arid watersheds, Z. Gemorphologie,
29, 71–82, 1981. a
Yair, A. and Raz-Yassif, N.: Hydrological processes in a small arid catchment:
Scale effects of rainfall and slope length, Geomorphology, 61, 155–169,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2003.12.003, 2004. a, b
Yair, A., Sharon, D., and Lavee, H.: Trends in runoff and erosion processes
over an arid limestone hillside, northern negev, israel, Hydrol.
Sci. Bull., 25, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626668009491932, 1980. a
Yakir, H. and Morin, E.: Hydrologic response of a semi-arid watershed to spatial and temporal characteristics of convective rain cells, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 393–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-393-2011, 2011. a, b, c
Yang, L., Smith, J., Baeck, M. L., Morin, E., and Goodrich, D. C.: Flash
Flooding in Arid/Semiarid Regions: Dissecting the Hydrometeorology and
Hydrology of the 19 August 2014 Storm and Flood Hydroclimatology in Arizona,
J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 3103–3123, https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-17-0089.1,
2017.
a, b
Yechieli, Y., Elron, E., and Sneh, A.: The geological map of Israel, 1:50,000, Sheet 19-IV,20-III: NeotHakikar, Isr. Geol. Surv., Jerusalem, 1994. a
Zilberman, E. and Avni, Y.,: The geological map of Israel, 1:50,000, Sheet 21-II: MizpeRamon, Isr. Geol. Surv., Jerusalem, 2004. a
Zoccatelli, D., Marra, F., Armon, M., Rinat, Y., Smith, J. A., and Morin, E.: Contrasting rainfall-runoff characteristics of floods in desert and Mediterranean basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2665–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2665-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d
Zoccatelli, D., Marra, F., Smith, J., Goodrich, D., Unkrich, C., Rosensaft, M.,
and Morin, E.: Hydrological modelling in desert areas of the eastern
Mediterranean, J. Hydrol., 587, 124879,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124879, 2020. a, b
Zorzetto, E., Botter, G., and Marani, M.: On the emergence of rainfall
extremes from ordinary events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 8076–8082,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069445, 2016. a
Short summary
Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of such events is important as flash floods are poorly understood and documented processes, especially in deserts. A small portion of the studied basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme rainfall intensities resulting in local flash floods of high magnitudes. Flash floods started and reached their peak within tens of minutes. Forecasts poorly predicted the flash floods mostly due to location inaccuracy.
Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint