Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1195-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1195-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Apr 2021
Research article |
| 09 Apr 2021
| 09 Apr 2021
An analysis of temporal scaling behaviour of extreme rainfall in Germany based on radar precipitation QPE data
Judith Marie Pöschmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Hydrosciences, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, Germany
Dongkyun Kim
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hongik University, Wausan-ro 94, Mapo-gu, 04066 Seoul, Korea
Rico Kronenberg
Department of Hydrosciences, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, Germany
Christian Bernhofer
Department of Hydrosciences, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069 Dresden, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Stefanie Fischer, Ronald Queck, Christian Bernhofer, and Matthias Mauder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2118, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate estimates of interception are important to assess the water availability in ecosystems. We analyzed rainfall interception for a forest site from plot to stand scale. During interception, eddy-covariance measurements of evaporation were systematically underestimated accounting for 24% of precipitation, while modelled interception evaporation accounted for 45%. As a consequence, we developed a hybrid correction approach to fit the evaporation data to both the energy and the water balance.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Jeongha Park, Dongkyun Kim, Klemens Barfus, and Rico Kronenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-391-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data are often a “must” as input for hydrological and hydraulic models (i.e. urban drainage modelling). However, station or climate projection data usually do not provide the required (e.g. sub-hourly) resolution. In the work, we present two new statistical models of different types to disaggregate precipitation from a daily to a 10 min scale. Both models were validated using radar data and then applied to climate models for 10 stations in Germany and South Korea.
Dánnell Quesada-Chacón, Klemens Barfus, and Christian Bernhofer
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7353–7370, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7353-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the performance of past perfect prognosis statistical downscaling methods while achieving full model repeatability with GPU-calculated deep learning models using the TensorFlow, climate4R, and VALUE frameworks. We employed the ERA5 reanalysis as predictors and ReKIS (eastern Ore Mountains, Germany, 1 km resolution) as precipitation predictand, while incorporating modern deep learning architectures. The achieved repeatability is key to accomplish further milestones with deep learning.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg, Thomas Grünwald, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3177–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the study we analysed the uncertainties of the meteorological data and model parameterization for evaporation modelling. We have taken a physically based lumped BROOK90 model and applied it in three different frameworks using global, regional and local datasets. Validating the simulations with eddy-covariance data from five stations in Germany, we found that the accuracy model parameterization plays a bigger role than the quality of the meteorological forcing.
Uta Moderow, Stefanie Fischer, Thomas Grünwald, Ronald Queck, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-202, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed three different estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) for four different sites along an elevation gradient of a low mountain range over 11 years. We found similar dependencies on meteorological variables for all three different ET estimates. Based on our analyses we recommend using a distinct ET estimate. Analysis further suggests that water temporally stored on plant surfaces should receive more attention. Our results contribute to determining reliable ET estimates.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Rico Kronenberg, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-27, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The paper aims to reveal features of behavior of compound precipitation-discharge extremes in small catchments of Saxony (Germany) using statistical methods with the following advances and innovations: binding meteorological and hydrological drivers of compound extremes, application of multivariate distribution to get return periods of daily-scale extremes, focus on small catchments, test interpolation methods for daily specific discharge, estimation of uncertainty of return period calculation.
Sergey Chalov, Pavel Terskii, Thomas Pluntke, Ludmila Efimova, Vasiliy Efimov, Vladimir Belyaev, Anna Terskaia, Michal Habel, Daniel Karthe, and Christian Bernhofer
Proc. IAHS, 381, 7–11, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-381-7-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-381-7-2019, 2019
Jeongha Park, Christian Onof, and Dongkyun Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 989–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall data are often unavailable for the analysis of water-related problems such as floods and droughts. In such cases, researchers use rainfall generators to produce synthetic rainfall data. However, data from most rainfall generators can serve only one specific purpose; i.e. one rainfall generator cannot be applied to analyse both floods and droughts. To overcome this issue, we invented a multipurpose rainfall generator that can be applied to analyse most water-related problems.
Solomon Hailu Gebrechorkos, Stephan Hülsmann, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4547–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4547-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4547-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In Africa field-based meteorological data are scarce; therefore global data sources based on remote sensing and climate models are often used as alternatives. To assess their suitability for a large and topographically complex area in East Africa, we evaluated multiple climate data products with available ground station data at multiple timescales over 21 regions. The comprehensive evaluation resulted in identification of preferential data sources to be used for climate and hydrological studies.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Waqas Ahmad, Minha Choi, Soohyun Kim, and Dongkyun Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-234, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
X. Wu, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, X. Wang, V. Magliulo, M. Wattenbach, L. Vitale, P. Di Tommasi, E. J. Moors, W. Jans, J. Elbers, E. Ceschia, T. Tallec, C. Bernhofer, T. Grünwald, C. Moureaux, T. Manise, A. Ligne, P. Cellier, B. Loubet, E. Larmanou, and D. Ripoche
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 857–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The response of crops to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 could have large effects on food production, terrestrial carbon, water, energy fluxes and the climate feedbacks. We developed a new process-oriented terrestrial biogeochemical model named ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), which integrates a generic crop phenology and harvest module into the land surface model ORCHIDEE. Our model has good ability to capture the spatial gradients of crop phenology, carbon and energy-related variables across Europe.
F. Richter, C. Döring, M. Jansen, O. Panferov, U. Spank, and C. Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3457-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3457-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting hydrological effects of land use change, e.g. enhanced cultivation of short rotation coppices, requires an adequate parameterisation. Measurements and modelling results show that leaf area index, stomatal resistance and in particular start and length of growing season are most sensitive to soil hydrological quantities, like ground water recharge (GWR). Only simulations over 30 years, reflecting long-term climate variability, show even zero GWR, especially in succeeding dry years.
M. Renner, K. Brust, K. Schwärzel, M. Volk, and C. Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 389–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-389-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-389-2014, 2014
D. Lisniak, J. Franke, and C. Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2487–2500, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2487-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2487-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
The unique features in the 4 d widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Is considering runs (in)consistency so useless for weather forecasting?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm Intensification from Mountains to Plains
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1719–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1719-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the most extreme episodes globally during that year. The extreme rainfall was significantly underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and economic losses. We examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall based on simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1697-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing the 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The south-west- and north-west-arriving windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Cited articles
American Meteorological Society: Glossary of Meteorology, American
Meteorology Society, available at: http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/
(last access: 6 April 2021), 2020. a
Barbero, R., Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., and Blenkinsop, S.: Is the
intensification of precipitation extremes with global warming better detected
at hourly than daily resolutions?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 974–983, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071917, 2017. a
Blanchet, J., Ceresetti, D., Molinié, G., and Creutin, J.-D.: A regional
GEV scale-invariant framework for Intensity–Duration–Frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 540, 82–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.007, 2016. a
Borga, M., Gaume, E., Creutin, J. D., and Marchi, L.: Surveying flash floods:
gauging the ungauged extremes, Hydrol. Process., 22, 3883–3885,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7111, 2008. a
Breña-Naranjo, J. A., Pedrozo-Acuña, A., and Rico-Ramirez, M. A.:
World's greatest rainfall intensities observed by satellites, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 16, 420–424, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.546, 2015. a
Commonwealth of Australia: Australia's Record Rainfall, available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/water/designRainfalls/rainfallEvents/ausRecordRainfall.shtml
(last access: 14 May 2020), 2019. a
Cristiano, E., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., and van de Giesen, N.: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3859–3878,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3859-2017, 2017. a
Cristiano, E., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., Gaitan, S., Ochoa Rodriguez, S., and van de Giesen, N.: Critical scales to explain urban hydrological response: an application in Cranbrook, London, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2425–2447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2425-2018, 2018. a
Dao, D. A., Kim, D., Kim, S., and Park, J.: Determination of flood-inducing
rainfall and runoff for highly urbanized area based on high-resolution
radar-gauge composite rainfall data and flooded area GIS data, J. Hydrol.,
584, 124704, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124704, 2020. a
DWA – Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall e.V.: Klimawandel erfordert wassersensible Stadtentwicklung, Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft, DWA, Hennef, Germany, 468–472, 2015. a
DWD: Nationaler Klimareport, 4. korrigierte Auflage, available at:
https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/nationalerklimareport/report.html (last access: 10 February 2021), 2020. a
Fabry, F.: On the determination of scale ranges for precipitation fields, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 101, 12819–12826, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD00718, 1996. a
Fadhel, S., Rico-Ramirez, M. A., and Han, D.: Uncertainty of
Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves due to varied climate baseline
periods, J. Hydrol., 547, 600–612, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.013,
2017. a
Gado, T. A., Hsu, K., and Sorooshian, S.: Rainfall frequency analysis for
ungauged sites using satellite precipitation products, J. Hydrol., 554,
646–655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.043, 2017. a
Galmarini, S., Steyn, D. G., and Ainslie, B.: The scaling law relating world
point-precipitation records to duration, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 533–546,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1022, 2004. a, b, c
García-Marín, A. P., Ayuso-Muñoz, J. L., Jiménez-Hornero, F. J., and Estévez, J.: Selecting the best IDF model by using the multifractal approach, Hydrol. Process., 27, 433–443, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9272, 2012. a
Ghanmi, H., Bargaoui, Z., and Mallet, C.: Estimation of
intensity-duration-frequency relationships according to the property of scale
invariance and regionalization analysis in a Mediterranean coastal area, J.
Hydrol., 541, 38–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.002, 2016. a
Gires, A., Tchiguirinskaia, I., Schertzer, D., Schellart, A., Berne, A., and
Lovejoy, S.: Influence of small scale rainfall variability on standard
comparison tools between radar and rain gauge data, Atmos. Res., 138, 125–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.11.008, 2014. a
Gonzalez, S. and Bech, J.: Extreme point rainfall temporal scaling: a long
term (1805–2014) regional and seasonal analysis in Spain, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 5068–5079, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5144, 2017. a, b, c, d
Guerreiro, S. B., Fowler, H. J., Barbero, R., Westra, S., Lenderink, G.,
Blenkinsop, S., Lewis, E., and Li, X.-F.: Detection of continental-scale
intensification of hourly rainfall extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 803–807, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0245-3, 2018. a
Hijmans, R., Garcia, N., and Wieczorek, J.: GADM: database of global
administrative areas, available at: https://gadm.org/download_country_v3.html (last access: 6 April 2021), 2018. a
Jennings, A. H.: World's Greatest Observed Point Rainfalls, Mon. Weather
Rev., 78, 4–5, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0004:WGOPR>2.0.CO;2, 1950. a, b, c
Kim, J., Lee, J., Kim, D., and Kang, B.: The role of rainfall spatial
variability in estimating areal reduction factors, J. Hydrol., 568, 416–426,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.11.014, 2019. a
Klik, M.: fst: Lightning Fast Serialization of Data Frames for R,
r package version 0.9.0 – For new features, see the `Changelog' file (package source), available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=fst
(last access: 6 April 2021), 2019. a
Kreklow, J., Tetzlaff, B., Kuhnt, G., and Burkhard, B.: A Rainfall Data
Intercomparison Dataset of RADKLIM, RADOLAN, and Rain Gauge Data for Germany, Data, 4, 118, https://doi.org/10.3390/data4030118, 2019. a, b
Lee, J., Ahn, J., Choi, E., and Kim, D.: Mesoscale Spatial Variability of
Linear Trend of Precipitation Statistics in Korean Peninsula, Adv. Meteorol.,
2016, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/3809719, 2016. a
Lengfeld, K., Winterrath, T., Junghänel, T., Hafer, M., and Becker, A.:
Characteristic spatial extent of hourly and daily precipitation events in
Germany derived from 16 years of radar data, Meteorol. Z., 28, 363–378, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0964, 2019. a
Lengfeld, K., Kirstetter, P.-E., Fowler, H. J., Yu, J., Becker, A., Flamig, Z., and Gourley, J.: Use of radar data for characterizing extreme precipitation at fine scales and short durations, Environ. Res. Lett., 15,
085003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab98b4, 2020. a, b
Madsen, H., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., and Mikkelsen, P. S.: Update of regional
intensity–duration–frequency curves in Denmark: Tendency towards increased storm intensities, Atmos. Res., 92, 343–349, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.01.013, 2009. a
Marra, F. and Morin, E.: Use of radar QPE for the derivation of
Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves in a range of climatic regimes, J. Hydrol., 531, 427–440, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.064, 2015. a
Marra, F., Morin, E., Peleg, N., Mei, Y., and Anagnostou, E. N.:
Intensity-duration-frequency curves from remote sensing rainfall estimates:
comparing satellite and weather radar over the eastern Mediterranean, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2389–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2389-2017, 2017. a
Overeem, A., Buishand, T. A., and Holleman, I.: Extreme rainfall analysis and
estimation of depth-duration-frequency curves using weather radar, Water
Resour. Res., 45, W10424, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009wr007869, 2009. a
Papalexiou, S. M., Dialynas, Y. G., and Grimaldi, S.: Hershfield factor
revisited: Correcting annual maximum precipitation, J. Hydrol., 542, 884–895, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.058, 2016. a, b
Peleg, N., Ben-Asher, M., and Morin, E.: Radar subpixel-scale rainfall
variability and uncertainty: lessons learned from observations of a dense
rain-gauge network, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2195–2208,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013, 2013. a
Peleg, N., Marra, F., Fatichi, S., Paschalis, A., Molnar, P., and Burlando, P.: Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale, J.
Hydrol., 556, 922–933, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.033, 2018. a
Perpiñán, O. and Hijmans, R.: rasterVis, package version 0.46 – For new features, see the `Changelog' file (in the package source), available at: http://oscarperpinan.github.io/rastervis/ (last access: 6 April 2021), 2019. a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, available at:
https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 6 April 2021), 2019. a
Rudolf, B. and Rapp, J.: Das Jahrhunderthochwasser der Elbe: Synoptische
Wetterentwicklung und klimatologische Aspekte, Abdruck aus klimastatusbericht 2002, DWD, availablea t: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/wzn/publikationen/Elbehochwasser.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2 (last access: 6 April 2021), 2003. a
Scott, A. J. and Knott, M.: A Cluster Analysis Method for Grouping Means in the Analysis of Variance, Biometrics, 30, 507–512, https://doi.org/10.2307/2529204, 1974. a
Westra, S., Alexander, L. V., and Zwiers, F. W.: Global increasing trends in
annual maximum daily precipitation, J. Climate, 26, 3904–3918,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1, 2013. a
Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson,
F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., and Roberts, N. M.: Future changes to the
intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall, Rev. Geophys., 52, 522–555, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014rg000464, 2014. a
Wickham, H.: ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis, Springer-Verlag, New York, available at: https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org (last access: 6 April 2021), 2016. a
Winterrath, T., Rosenow, W., and Weigl, E.: On the DWD Quantitative
Precipitation Analysis and Nowcasting System for Real-Time Application in
German Flood Risk Management, in: Weather Radar and Hydrology, Proceedings of
a symposium held in Exeter, UK, April 2011, IAHS Publ., 351, 323–329, 2012. a
Winterrath, T., Brendel, C., Hafer, M., Junghänel, T., Klameth, A.,
Walawender, E., Weigl, E., and Becker, A.: Erstellung einer radargestützten Niederschlagsklimatologie, available at: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/pbfb_verlag_berichte/pdf_einzelbaende/251_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2
(last access: 6 April 2021), 2017. a
Winterrath, T., Brendel, C., Hafer, M., Junghänel, T., Klameth, A., Lengfeld, K., Walawender, E., Weigl, E., and Becker, A.: Radar climatology (RADKLIM) version 2017.002: Reprocessed gauge-adjusted radar data, one-hour precipitation sums (RW), DWD – Deutscher Wetterdienst, https://doi.org/10.5676/dwd/radklim_rw_v2017.002, 2018a. a
Winterrath, T., Brendel, C., Hafer, M., Junghänel, T., Klameth, A., Lengfeld, K., Walawender, E., Weigl, E., and Becker, A.: Radar climatology (RADKLIM) version 2017.002: Reprocessed quasi gauge-adjusted radar data, 5-minute precipitation sums (YW), DWD – Deutscher Wetterdienst, https://doi.org/10.5676/dwd/radklim_yw_v2017.002, 2018b. a, b
Yang, Z.-Y., Pourghasemi, H. R., and Lee, Y.-H.: Fractal analysis of
rainfall-induced landslide and debris flow spread distribution in the
Chenyulan Creek Basin, Taiwan, J. Earth Sci., 27, 151–159,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-016-0633-4, 2016. a
Zhang, H., Fraedrich, K., Zhu, X., Blender, R., and Zhang, L.: World's
Greatest Observed Point Rainfalls: Jennings (1950) Scaling Law, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 1952–1957, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-074.1, 2013. a, b
Short summary
We examined maximum rainfall values for different durations from 16 years of radar-based rainfall records for whole Germany. Unlike existing observations based on rain gauge data no clear linear relationship could be identified. However, by classifying all time series, we could identify three similar groups determined by the temporal structure of rainfall extremes observed in the study period. The study highlights the importance of using long data records and a dense measurement network.
We examined maximum rainfall values for different durations from 16 years of radar-based...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint