Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 01 Apr 2020
| 01 Apr 2020
Exposure of real estate properties to the 2018 Hurricane Florence flooding
Marco Tedesco
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA
Steven McAlpine
FirstStreet Foundation, New York, USA
Jeremy R. Porter
Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, City University of New York, New York, USA
Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University Medical Center, Columbia University, New York, USA
Related authors
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
Short summary
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We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
Short summary
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We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Matthew G. Cooper, Laurence C. Smith, Asa K. Rennermalm, Marco Tedesco, Rohi Muthyala, Sasha Z. Leidman, Samiah E. Moustafa, and Jessica V. Fayne
The Cryosphere, 15, 1931–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, 2021
Short summary
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We measured sunlight transmitted into glacier ice to improve models of glacier ice melt and satellite measurements of glacier ice surfaces. We found that very small concentrations of impurities inside the ice increase absorption of sunlight, but the amount was small enough to enable an estimate of ice absorptivity. We confirmed earlier results that the absorption minimum is near 390 nm. We also found that a layer of highly reflective granular "white ice" near the surface reduces transmittance.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Shujie Wang, Marco Tedesco, Patrick Alexander, Min Xu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 2687–2713, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial algal blooms play a significant role in darkening the Greenland Ice Sheet during summertime. The dark pigments generated by glacial algae could substantially reduce the bare ice albedo and thereby enhance surface melt. We used satellite data to map the spatial distribution of glacial algae and characterized the seasonal growth pattern and interannual trends of glacial algae in southwestern Greenland. Our study is important for bridging microbial activities with ice sheet mass balance.
Colleen Mortimer, Lawrence Mudryk, Chris Derksen, Kari Luojus, Ross Brown, Richard Kelly, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 14, 1579–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Existing stand-alone passive microwave SWE products have markedly different climatological SWE patterns compared to reanalysis-based datasets. The AMSR-E SWE has low spatial and temporal correlations with the four reanalysis-based products evaluated and GlobSnow and perform poorly in comparisons with snow transect data from Finland, Russia, and Canada. There is better agreement with in situ data when multiple SWE products, excluding the stand-alone passive microwave SWE products, are combined.
Marco Tedesco and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 1209–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Unprecedented atmospheric conditions occurring in the summer of 2019 over Greenland promoted new record or close-to-record values of mass loss. Summer of 2019 was characterized by an exceptional persistence of anticyclonic conditions that enhanced melting.
Marilena Oltmanns, Fiammetta Straneo, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 13, 815–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-815-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-815-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
By combining reanalysis, weather station and satellite data, we show that increases in surface melt over Greenland are initiated by large-scale precipitation events year-round. Estimates from a regional climate model suggest that the initiated melting more than doubled between 1988 and 2012, amounting to ~28 % of the overall melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass gain, precipitation events are contributing to the ice sheet's decline.
Kang Yang, Laurence C. Smith, Leif Karlstrom, Matthew G. Cooper, Marco Tedesco, Dirk van As, Xiao Cheng, Zhuoqi Chen, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 12, 3791–3811, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3791-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3791-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution spatially lumped hydrologic surface routing model is proposed to simulate meltwater transport over bare ice surfaces. In an ice-covered catchment, meltwater is routed by slow interfluve flow (~10−3–10−4 m s−1) followed by fast open-channel flow (~10−1 m s−1). Seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream-river networks substantially alters the magnitude and timing of moulin discharge with implications for subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Marco Tedesco, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 2901–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Surface melting on the East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP) has been linked to ice shelf collapse, including the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) ice shelves. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a valuable tool to understand how wind patterns and general warming can impact the stability of ice shelves through surface melt. Here, we evaluate one such RCM (Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale) over the East AP, including the remaining Larsen C ice shelf, by comparing it to satellite and ground data.
Achim Heilig, Olaf Eisen, Michael MacFerrin, Marco Tedesco, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 1851–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents data on temporal changes in snow and firn, which were not available before. We present data on water infiltration in the percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet that improve our understanding of liquid water retention in snow and firn and mass transfer. We compare those findings with model simulations. It appears that simulated accumulation in terms of SWE is fairly accurate, while modeling of the individual parameters density and liquid water content is incorrect.
Julienne C. Stroeve, John R. Mioduszewski, Asa Rennermalm, Linette N. Boisvert, Marco Tedesco, and David Robinson
The Cryosphere, 11, 2363–2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2363-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2363-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
As the sea ice has declined strongly in recent years there has been a corresponding increase in Greenland melting. While both are likely a result of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that favor summer melt, this study evaluates whether or not sea ice reductions around the Greenland ice sheet are having an influence on Greenland summer melt through enhanced sensible and latent heat transport from open water areas onto the ice sheet.
Kimberly A. Casey, Chris M. Polashenski, Justin Chen, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 11, 1781–1795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1781-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) average summer surface reflectance and albedo (2001–2016). MODIS Collection 6 data show a decreased magnitude of change over time due to sensor calibration corrections. Spectral band maps provide insight into GrIS surface processes likely occurring. Correctly measuring albedo and surface reflectance changes over time is crucial to monitoring atmosphere–ice interactions and ice mass balance. The results are applicable to many long-term MODIS studies.
Lora S. Koenig, Alvaro Ivanoff, Patrick M. Alexander, Joseph A. MacGregor, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Panzer, John D. Paden, Richard R. Forster, Indrani Das, Joesph R. McConnell, Marco Tedesco, Carl Leuschen, and Prasad Gogineni
The Cryosphere, 10, 1739–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Here, we quantify the net annual accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet, which comprises the largest component of surface mass balance, at a higher spatial resolution than currently available using high-resolution, airborne-radar data.
Patrick M. Alexander, Marco Tedesco, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Scott B. Luthcke, Xavier Fettweis, and Eric Larour
The Cryosphere, 10, 1259–1277, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compared satellite-derived estimates of spatial and seasonal variations in Greenland Ice Sheet mass with a set of model simulations, revealing an agreement between models and satellite estimates for the ice-sheet-wide seasonal fluctuations in mass, but disagreement at finer spatial scales. The model simulations underestimate low-elevation mass loss. Improving the ability of models to capture variations and trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass is important for estimating future sea level rise.
Marco Tedesco, Sarah Doherty, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, Jeyavinoth Jeyaratnam, and Julienne Stroeve
The Cryosphere, 10, 477–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Summer surface albedo over Greenland decreased at a rate of 0.02 per decade between 1996 and 2012. The decrease is due to snow grain growth, the expansion of bare ice areas, and trends in light-absorbing impurities on snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ observations indicate increasing trends in impurities in the atmosphere over Greenland. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening.
M. Navari, S. A. Margulis, S. M. Bateni, M. Tedesco, P. Alexander, and X. Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 10, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An ensemble batch smoother was used to assess the feasibility of generating a reanalysis estimate of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass fluxes (SMF) via integrating measured ice surface temperatures with a regional climate model estimate. The results showed that assimilation of IST were able to overcome uncertainties in meteorological forcings that drive the GrIS surface processes. We showed that the proposed methodology is able to generate posterior reanalysis estimates of the SMF.
C. J. Legleiter, M. Tedesco, L. C. Smith, A. E. Behar, and B. T. Overstreet
The Cryosphere, 8, 215–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-215-2014, 2014
M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, T. Mote, J. Wahr, P. Alexander, J. E. Box, and B. Wouters
The Cryosphere, 7, 615–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, 2013
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Matthew G. Cooper, Laurence C. Smith, Asa K. Rennermalm, Marco Tedesco, Rohi Muthyala, Sasha Z. Leidman, Samiah E. Moustafa, and Jessica V. Fayne
The Cryosphere, 15, 1931–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We measured sunlight transmitted into glacier ice to improve models of glacier ice melt and satellite measurements of glacier ice surfaces. We found that very small concentrations of impurities inside the ice increase absorption of sunlight, but the amount was small enough to enable an estimate of ice absorptivity. We confirmed earlier results that the absorption minimum is near 390 nm. We also found that a layer of highly reflective granular "white ice" near the surface reduces transmittance.
Oliver E. J. Wing, Andrew M. Smith, Michael L. Marston, Jeremy R. Porter, Mike F. Amodeo, Christopher C. Sampson, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are difficult to validate. They generally output theoretical flood events of a given probability rather than an observed event that they can be tested against. Here, we adapt a US-wide flood model to enable the rapid simulation of historical flood events in order to more robustly understand model biases. For 35 flood events, we highlight the challenges of model validation amidst observational data errors yet evidence the increasing skill of large-scale models.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Shujie Wang, Marco Tedesco, Patrick Alexander, Min Xu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 2687–2713, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial algal blooms play a significant role in darkening the Greenland Ice Sheet during summertime. The dark pigments generated by glacial algae could substantially reduce the bare ice albedo and thereby enhance surface melt. We used satellite data to map the spatial distribution of glacial algae and characterized the seasonal growth pattern and interannual trends of glacial algae in southwestern Greenland. Our study is important for bridging microbial activities with ice sheet mass balance.
Colleen Mortimer, Lawrence Mudryk, Chris Derksen, Kari Luojus, Ross Brown, Richard Kelly, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 14, 1579–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Existing stand-alone passive microwave SWE products have markedly different climatological SWE patterns compared to reanalysis-based datasets. The AMSR-E SWE has low spatial and temporal correlations with the four reanalysis-based products evaluated and GlobSnow and perform poorly in comparisons with snow transect data from Finland, Russia, and Canada. There is better agreement with in situ data when multiple SWE products, excluding the stand-alone passive microwave SWE products, are combined.
Marco Tedesco and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 1209–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Unprecedented atmospheric conditions occurring in the summer of 2019 over Greenland promoted new record or close-to-record values of mass loss. Summer of 2019 was characterized by an exceptional persistence of anticyclonic conditions that enhanced melting.
Marilena Oltmanns, Fiammetta Straneo, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 13, 815–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-815-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-815-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
By combining reanalysis, weather station and satellite data, we show that increases in surface melt over Greenland are initiated by large-scale precipitation events year-round. Estimates from a regional climate model suggest that the initiated melting more than doubled between 1988 and 2012, amounting to ~28 % of the overall melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass gain, precipitation events are contributing to the ice sheet's decline.
Kang Yang, Laurence C. Smith, Leif Karlstrom, Matthew G. Cooper, Marco Tedesco, Dirk van As, Xiao Cheng, Zhuoqi Chen, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 12, 3791–3811, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3791-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3791-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A high-resolution spatially lumped hydrologic surface routing model is proposed to simulate meltwater transport over bare ice surfaces. In an ice-covered catchment, meltwater is routed by slow interfluve flow (~10−3–10−4 m s−1) followed by fast open-channel flow (~10−1 m s−1). Seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream-river networks substantially alters the magnitude and timing of moulin discharge with implications for subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Marco Tedesco, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 2901–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Surface melting on the East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP) has been linked to ice shelf collapse, including the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) ice shelves. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a valuable tool to understand how wind patterns and general warming can impact the stability of ice shelves through surface melt. Here, we evaluate one such RCM (Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale) over the East AP, including the remaining Larsen C ice shelf, by comparing it to satellite and ground data.
Achim Heilig, Olaf Eisen, Michael MacFerrin, Marco Tedesco, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 1851–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents data on temporal changes in snow and firn, which were not available before. We present data on water infiltration in the percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet that improve our understanding of liquid water retention in snow and firn and mass transfer. We compare those findings with model simulations. It appears that simulated accumulation in terms of SWE is fairly accurate, while modeling of the individual parameters density and liquid water content is incorrect.
Julienne C. Stroeve, John R. Mioduszewski, Asa Rennermalm, Linette N. Boisvert, Marco Tedesco, and David Robinson
The Cryosphere, 11, 2363–2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2363-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2363-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
As the sea ice has declined strongly in recent years there has been a corresponding increase in Greenland melting. While both are likely a result of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that favor summer melt, this study evaluates whether or not sea ice reductions around the Greenland ice sheet are having an influence on Greenland summer melt through enhanced sensible and latent heat transport from open water areas onto the ice sheet.
Kimberly A. Casey, Chris M. Polashenski, Justin Chen, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 11, 1781–1795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1781-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) average summer surface reflectance and albedo (2001–2016). MODIS Collection 6 data show a decreased magnitude of change over time due to sensor calibration corrections. Spectral band maps provide insight into GrIS surface processes likely occurring. Correctly measuring albedo and surface reflectance changes over time is crucial to monitoring atmosphere–ice interactions and ice mass balance. The results are applicable to many long-term MODIS studies.
Lora S. Koenig, Alvaro Ivanoff, Patrick M. Alexander, Joseph A. MacGregor, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Panzer, John D. Paden, Richard R. Forster, Indrani Das, Joesph R. McConnell, Marco Tedesco, Carl Leuschen, and Prasad Gogineni
The Cryosphere, 10, 1739–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Here, we quantify the net annual accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet, which comprises the largest component of surface mass balance, at a higher spatial resolution than currently available using high-resolution, airborne-radar data.
Patrick M. Alexander, Marco Tedesco, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Scott B. Luthcke, Xavier Fettweis, and Eric Larour
The Cryosphere, 10, 1259–1277, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compared satellite-derived estimates of spatial and seasonal variations in Greenland Ice Sheet mass with a set of model simulations, revealing an agreement between models and satellite estimates for the ice-sheet-wide seasonal fluctuations in mass, but disagreement at finer spatial scales. The model simulations underestimate low-elevation mass loss. Improving the ability of models to capture variations and trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass is important for estimating future sea level rise.
Marco Tedesco, Sarah Doherty, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, Jeyavinoth Jeyaratnam, and Julienne Stroeve
The Cryosphere, 10, 477–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Summer surface albedo over Greenland decreased at a rate of 0.02 per decade between 1996 and 2012. The decrease is due to snow grain growth, the expansion of bare ice areas, and trends in light-absorbing impurities on snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ observations indicate increasing trends in impurities in the atmosphere over Greenland. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening.
M. Navari, S. A. Margulis, S. M. Bateni, M. Tedesco, P. Alexander, and X. Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 10, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, 2016
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An ensemble batch smoother was used to assess the feasibility of generating a reanalysis estimate of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass fluxes (SMF) via integrating measured ice surface temperatures with a regional climate model estimate. The results showed that assimilation of IST were able to overcome uncertainties in meteorological forcings that drive the GrIS surface processes. We showed that the proposed methodology is able to generate posterior reanalysis estimates of the SMF.
C. J. Legleiter, M. Tedesco, L. C. Smith, A. E. Behar, and B. T. Overstreet
The Cryosphere, 8, 215–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-215-2014, 2014
M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, T. Mote, J. Wahr, P. Alexander, J. E. Box, and B. Wouters
The Cryosphere, 7, 615–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of Central Europe
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornado associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
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Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
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Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
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This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
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Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
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There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
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Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
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The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
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This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
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The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
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Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
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The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
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We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
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Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
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We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr Bońkowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, 2023
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Poland is going to construct some important structures. So, knowledge about strong and extreme winds in our country is important for enginners who will design these structures. The authors’ study of maximum wind speeds in Poland is based on a set of annual maximum gust wind speeds measured at 39 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010 (plotted on extremal probability paper), tornado reports collected from 1899 to 2019, and estimation of wind speeds of derechos and recent tornadoes in Poland.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
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Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
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To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
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We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
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Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
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We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
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This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-51, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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In this study we assess the impact of climate change on fire danger trends in different landscapes of Central Europe by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today’s threshold for a 100-year FWI event, will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. Further, high fire danger becomes the mean condition by 2099. This study highlights Central Europe’s potential for severe fire events from a meteorological perspective.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
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Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistics of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
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This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
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The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
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A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
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A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
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As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
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Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
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Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
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Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
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The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
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We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
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We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
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We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
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We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
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The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
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Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
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In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
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Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
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Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
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Short summary
Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their impact on economy. Here, we show that value of property exposed to Hurricane Florence in September 2018 was USD 52 billion vs. USD 10 billion that would have occurred at the beginning of the 19th century due to urban expansion that increased after 1950s and the increasing number of houses built near water, showing the importance of accounting for the distribution of new buildings in risk and exposure.
Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their...
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