Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3099–3115, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3099-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: Analysis and prediction of natural airborne aviation hazards
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3099–3115, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3099-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 24 Nov 2020
Research article | 24 Nov 2020
Extension of the WRF-Chem volcanic emission preprocessor to integrate complex source terms and evaluation for different emission scenarios of the Grimsvötn 2011 eruption
Marcus Hirtl et al.
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Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
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The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Laura Palacios-Peña, Rocío Baró, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, José María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, 2018
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Short summary
Atmospheric aerosols modify the radiative budget of the Earth, and it is therefore mandatory to have an accurate representation of their optical properties for understanding their climatic role. This work therefore evaluates the skill in the representation of optical properties by different remote-sensing sensors and regional online coupled chemistry–climate models over Europe.
Rocío Baró, Laura Palacios-Peña, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9677–9696, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The influence on modeled max., mean and min. temperature over Europe of including aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions has been assessed for two case studies in 2010. Data were taken from an ensemble of online regional chemistry–climate models from EuMetChem COST Action. The results indicate that including these interactions clearly improves the spatiotemporal variability in the temperature signal simulated by the models, with implications for reducing the uncertainty in climate projections.
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ulas Im, Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Alba Badia, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Dominik Brunner, Charles Chemel, Gabriele Curci, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Flemming, Renate Forkel, Lea Giordano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marcus Hirtl, Oriol Jorba, Astrid Manders-Groot, Lucy Neal, Juan L. Pérez, Guidio Pirovano, Roberto San Jose, Nicholas Savage, Wolfram Schroder, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Dimiter Syrakov, Paolo Tuccella, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15629–15652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, 2016
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Four ensemble methods are applied to two annual AQMEII datasets and their performance is compared for O3, NO2 and PM10. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill at each station over the single models and the ensemble mean. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way.
M. Bocquet, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, M. Hirtl, R. Žabkar, G. R. Carmichael, J. Flemming, A. Inness, M. Pagowski, J. L. Pérez Camaño, P. E. Saide, R. San Jose, M. Sofiev, J. Vira, A. Baklanov, C. Carnevale, G. Grell, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, 2015
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Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of concentrations, and perform inverse modeling. Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models, with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM.
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
Sean D. Egan, Martin Stuefer, Peter W. Webley, Taryn Lopez, Catherine F. Cahill, and Marcus Hirtl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2721-2020, 2020
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The Weather Research Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was modified to include volcanic ash aggregation. The modified WRF-Chem model was run with and without aggregation, and changes in the model output were measured. Changes in the lifetime of volcanic ash a function of the chosen fractal dimension were quantified. A case study using the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull revealed that the aggregation modifications result in tephra fallout and ash concentrations near observed values.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Rocío Baró, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Martin Stengel, Dominik Brunner, Gabriele Curci, Renate Forkel, Lucy Neal, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nicholas Savage, Martijn Schaap, Paolo Tuccella, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15183–15199, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15183-2018, 2018
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Particles in the atmosphere, such as pollution, desert dust, and volcanic ash, have an impact on meteorology. They interact with incoming radiation resulting in a cooling effect of the atmosphere. Today, the use of meteorology and chemistry models help us to understand these processes, but there are a lot of uncertainties. The goal of this work is to evaluate how these interactions are represented in the models by comparing them to satellite data to see how close they are to reality.
Laura Palacios-Peña, Rocío Baró, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, José María López-Romero, Juan Pedro Montávez, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-5021-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric aerosols modify the radiative budget of the Earth, and it is therefore mandatory to have an accurate representation of their optical properties for understanding their climatic role. This work therefore evaluates the skill in the representation of optical properties by different remote-sensing sensors and regional online coupled chemistry–climate models over Europe.
Hallgeir Wilhelmsen, Florian Ladstädter, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, and Andrea K. Steiner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1333–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1333-2018, 2018
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Tropical atmospheric variability is often described using proxy indices of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We introduce new proxies derived from GNSS radio occultation (RO) satellite measurements. Using the high vertical resolution of the RO temperature fields we obtain altitude-resolved indices which can improve the description of atmospheric variability patterns and can be used in climate studies where a detailed knowledge of these patterns is required.
Petr Pisoft, Petr Sacha, Jiri Miksovsky, Peter Huszar, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, and Ulrich Foelsche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 515–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-515-2018, 2018
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We revise selected findings regarding utilization of Global Positioning System radio occultation density profiles for analysis of internal gravity waves. The results show that previously published results are valid only for one specific data version only. Using radiosonde profiles, we also analyze a nonhydrostatic component in temperature profiles. The last part presents detailed study on the utilization of density profiles for characterization of the wave field stability.
Barbara Angerer, Florian Ladstädter, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Marc Schwärz, Andrea K. Steiner, Ulrich Foelsche, and Gottfried Kirchengast
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4845–4863, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4845-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4845-2017, 2017
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We present a detailed analysis of the latest Wegener Center GPS radio occultation reprocessing (OPSv5.6) output. Knowledge of differences in data quality, as well as of data consistency, is essential when combining data from different missions to a long-term climate record. We compare quality aspects of the various processed satellite missions and present satellite-dependent variations. Temperature data from various satellites are found to be highly consistent within 8 to 25 km.
Rocío Baró, Laura Palacios-Peña, Alexander Baklanov, Alessandra Balzarini, Dominik Brunner, Renate Forkel, Marcus Hirtl, Luka Honzak, Juan Luis Pérez, Guido Pirovano, Roberto San José, Wolfram Schröder, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Rahela Žabkar, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9677–9696, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The influence on modeled max., mean and min. temperature over Europe of including aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions has been assessed for two case studies in 2010. Data were taken from an ensemble of online regional chemistry–climate models from EuMetChem COST Action. The results indicate that including these interactions clearly improves the spatiotemporal variability in the temperature signal simulated by the models, with implications for reducing the uncertainty in climate projections.
Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, William J. Randel, and Joowan Kim
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793–806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017
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Tropical temperature variability and associated Kelvin-wave activity are investigated from 10 km to 30 km using 13 years of high-resolution observational data. Strongest temperature variability is found in the tropical tropopause region between about 16 km and 20 km, where peaks of Kelvin-wave activity are irregularly distributed in time. Detailed knowledge of dynamical processes in the tropical tropopause region is an essential part of better understanding climate variability and change.
Laura Palacios-Peña, Rocío Baró, Juan Luis Guerrero-Rascado, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Dominik Brunner, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 277–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-277-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-277-2017, 2017
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The effects of atmospheric aerosols over the Earth’s climate mainly depend on their optical, microphysical and chemical properties, which modify the Earth's radiative budget, the main source of uncertainty in climate change. In this work we have studied the representation of aerosol optical properties using an online coupled model (WRF-Chem) when aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–clouds interactions (ACIs) are taken into account over the Iberian Peninsula.
Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ulas Im, Efisio Solazzo, Roberto Bianconi, Alba Badia, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocío Baró, Roberto Bellasio, Dominik Brunner, Charles Chemel, Gabriele Curci, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Flemming, Renate Forkel, Lea Giordano, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marcus Hirtl, Oriol Jorba, Astrid Manders-Groot, Lucy Neal, Juan L. Pérez, Guidio Pirovano, Roberto San Jose, Nicholas Savage, Wolfram Schroder, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Dimiter Syrakov, Paolo Tuccella, Johannes Werhahn, Ralf Wolke, Christian Hogrefe, and Stefano Galmarini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15629–15652, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Four ensemble methods are applied to two annual AQMEII datasets and their performance is compared for O3, NO2 and PM10. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill at each station over the single models and the ensemble mean. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way.
Lukas Brunner, Andrea K. Steiner, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, and Martin W. Jury
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4593–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4593-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4593-2016, 2016
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Atmospheric blocking refers to persistent high-pressure systems which block the climatological flow at midlatitudes. We explore blocking with observations from GPS radio occultation (RO), a satellite-based remote-sensing system. Using two example cases, we find that RO data robustly capture blocking, highlighting the potential of RO observations to complement models and reanalysis as a basis for blocking research.
Y. Li, G. Kirchengast, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, R. Norman, Y. B. Yuan, J. Fritzer, M. Schwaerz, and K. Zhang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 3447–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-3447-2015, 2015
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We introduce a new dynamic statistical optimization algorithm to initialize ionosphere-corrected bending angles of Global Navigation Satellite System-based radio occultation measurements. The new algorithm is evaluated against the OPSv5.6 algorithm developed by the Wegener Center using both simulated and real observed data. It is found that the algorithm can significantly reduce the random errors of optimized bending angles. The retrieved refractivity and temperature profiles are also benefited.
M. Bocquet, H. Elbern, H. Eskes, M. Hirtl, R. Žabkar, G. R. Carmichael, J. Flemming, A. Inness, M. Pagowski, J. L. Pérez Camaño, P. E. Saide, R. San Jose, M. Sofiev, J. Vira, A. Baklanov, C. Carnevale, G. Grell, and C. Seigneur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5325–5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5325-2015, 2015
Short summary
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Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of concentrations, and perform inverse modeling. Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. We review here the current status of data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models, with a particular focus on future prospects for data assimilation in CCMM.
B. Scherllin-Pirscher, S. Syndergaard, U. Foelsche, and K. B. Lauritsen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-109-2015, 2015
T. Rieckh, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, F. Ladstädter, and U. Foelsche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3947–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3947-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3947-2014, 2014
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Radio Occultation (RO) observations featuring high vertical resolution, global availability, and high accuracy were used to investigate global characteristics of the lapse rate tropopause. Climatological tropopause characteristics for the
RO record from 2001 to 2013 extend previous studies on tropopause structure and its temporal variability. Latitudinal and longitudinal variations as well as the annual cycle and inter-annual variability were analyzed for the tropopause altitude and temperature.
J. Danzer, U. Foelsche, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, and M. Schwärz
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2883–2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2883-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2883-2014, 2014
A. Baklanov, K. Schlünzen, P. Suppan, J. Baldasano, D. Brunner, S. Aksoyoglu, G. Carmichael, J. Douros, J. Flemming, R. Forkel, S. Galmarini, M. Gauss, G. Grell, M. Hirtl, S. Joffre, O. Jorba, E. Kaas, M. Kaasik, G. Kallos, X. Kong, U. Korsholm, A. Kurganskiy, J. Kushta, U. Lohmann, A. Mahura, A. Manders-Groot, A. Maurizi, N. Moussiopoulos, S. T. Rao, N. Savage, C. Seigneur, R. S. Sokhi, E. Solazzo, S. Solomos, B. Sørensen, G. Tsegas, E. Vignati, B. Vogel, and Y. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 317–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-317-2014, 2014
J. Brioude, D. Arnold, A. Stohl, M. Cassiani, D. Morton, P. Seibert, W. Angevine, S. Evan, A. Dingwell, J. D. Fast, R. C. Easter, I. Pisso, J. Burkhart, and G. Wotawa
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1889–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1889-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1889-2013, 2013
J. Danzer, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, and U. Foelsche
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2169-2013, 2013
A. K. Steiner, D. Hunt, S.-P. Ho, G. Kirchengast, A. J. Mannucci, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, H. Gleisner, A. von Engeln, T. Schmidt, C. Ao, S. S. Leroy, E. R. Kursinski, U. Foelsche, M. Gorbunov, S. Heise, Y.-H. Kuo, K. B. Lauritsen, C. Marquardt, C. Rocken, W. Schreiner, S. Sokolovskiy, S. Syndergaard, and J. Wickert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1469–1484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1469-2013, 2013
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021, 2021
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Linda van Garderen, Frauke Feser, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021, 2021
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 129–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-129-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-129-2021, 2021
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The present innovative modeling aims to combine the most realistic simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the understanding of observed past damage and to develop safer urban management and appropriate building standards.
Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney, William Cabos, Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Alba de la Vara, and Juan Jesus González-Alemán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 53–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-53-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-53-2021, 2021
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This study investigated one case of a tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea under present and future climate conditions with a regional climate model. A pseudo global warming (PGW) technique is employed to simulate the cyclone under future climate, and our simulation showed that the cyclone is moderately strengthened by warmer climate. Other PGW simulations where only ocean and atmosphere are warmed reveal the interesting results that both have counteracting effects on the cyclone.
Alexander Krug, Daniel Fenner, Hans-Guido Mücke, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3083–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020, 2020
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This study investigates hot weather episodes in eight German cities which are statistically associated with increased mortality. Besides air temperature, ozone concentrations partly explain these mortality rates. The strength of the respective contributions of the two stressors varies across the cities. Results highlight that during hot weather episodes, not only high air temperature affects urban populations; concurrently high ozone concentrations also play an important role in public health.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
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A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, 2020
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Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Sean D. Egan, Martin Stuefer, Peter W. Webley, Taryn Lopez, Catherine F. Cahill, and Marcus Hirtl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2721-2020, 2020
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The Weather Research Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was modified to include volcanic ash aggregation. The modified WRF-Chem model was run with and without aggregation, and changes in the model output were measured. Changes in the lifetime of volcanic ash a function of the chosen fractal dimension were quantified. A case study using the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull revealed that the aggregation modifications result in tephra fallout and ash concentrations near observed values.
Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins, Laia Arbiol-Roca, Javier Martin-Vide, Antoni Barrera-Escoda, and Marc Prohom
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2483-2020, 2020
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We considered the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) to analyse the occurrence of extreme torrential episodes (≥ 200 mm in 24 h) over Catalonia (NE Iberia) during the 1951–2016 period. Principal results reveal the occurrence of 50 episodes, mainly in autumn, especially during the second 10 d period of October (11–20), coinciding with the most negative WeMOi values of the year. Seasonal changes in these episodes and in WeMOi values might be due to sea warming.
Leah Hayward, Malcolm Whitworth, Nick Pepin, and Steve Dorling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2463–2482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2463-2020, 2020
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This review article outlines the state of thunderstorm climatologies, which are underrepresented in the literature. Thunderstorms overlap with lightning and intense precipitation events, both of which create important hazards. This article compiles and evaluates information on datasets, research approaches and methodologies used in quantifying thunderstorm distribution, providing an introduction to the topic and signposting new and established researchers to research articles and datasets.
Joan Gilabert, Anna Deluca, Dirk Lauwaet, Joan Ballester, Jordi Corbera, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-240, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-250, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Xian Luo, Xuemei Fan, Yungang Li, and Xuan Ji
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2243–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2243-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2243-2020, 2020
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In this study, we corrected Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin using both linear and nonlinear methods, and their influences on resulting extreme precipitation indices were assessed. Results showed that all methods were able to correct mean precipitation, but their ability to correct wet-day frequency and coefficient of variation were markedly different.
Milica M. Pecelj, Milica Z. Lukić, Dejan J. Filipović, Branko M. Protić, and Uroš M. Bogdanović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2021–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2021-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2021-2020, 2020
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The variation in UTCI heat stress grade was observed during heat waves over the past 20 years in order to identify patterns of biothermal heat stress conditions in Serbia.
Very strong heat stressdescribes an alarming biothermal state and has occurred frequently in the last 10 years. The findings indicate the UTCI14 h index
very strong heat stress event(VSHSE) as an indicator of biothermal heat hazard.
Deanna Nash and Leila M. V. Carvalho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1931–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1931-2020, 2020
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On 6 March 2019, during an atmospheric river (AR) event, over 8000 lightning flashes were recorded near southern California in under 24 h, resulting in a unique meteorological event for this region. This study examines the characteristics of this AR compared to previous landfalling ARs in Santa Barbara and explores how the conditions led to the formation of hail and enhanced electrification in a region that sees little to no lightning.
Kuo Li and Gyilbag Amatus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1889–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1889-2020, 2020
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In recent years, heat waves have become more frequent in the world, e.g., in Europe, Australia, China and the US, at huge detriment to human health and natural resources. Thus we establish an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days to provide unified standards for assessing heat waves and hot years. It provides a clear picture of the evolution and spatial distribution of heat waves and hot years in China.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
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Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, Ketil Isaksen, Jens Kristian Steen Jacobsen, and Irene Brox Nilsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1847–1865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020, 2020
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We have studied changes in winter weather known to trigger road closures and isolation of small seaside communities in northern Norway. We find that snow amounts and heavy snowfall events have increased in the past, while future projections for 2040–2100 show a decrease in snow-related indices. Events of heavy water supply and zero crossings are expected to increase. Our results imply fewer dry-snow-related access disruptions in the future, while wet-snow avalanches and slushflows may increase.
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020, 2020
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
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Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Flavio Lopes Ribeiro, Mario Guevara, Alma Vázquez-Lule, Ana Paula Cunha, Marcelo Zeri, and Rodrigo Vargas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-185, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The main objective of this paper was to analyze differences in soil moisture responses to drought for each biome of Brazil. For that, we used satellite data from the European Space Agency, from 2009 to 2015. We found an overall soil moisture decline of −0.5 %/year at the country level and identified the most vulnerable biomes of Brazil. This information is crucial to enhance the national drought early warning system, develop strategies for drought risk reduction and soil moisture conservation.
Genshen Fang, Lin Zhao, Shuyang Cao, Ledong Zhu, and Yaojun Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1617-2020, 2020
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Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) damage. A TC is a moving rotating storm with a small occurrence rate at a specific site. Wind anemometers are usually damaged during strong typhoon events, making the record of observed winds an unreliable predictor for design wind speed. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the typhoon wind hazards in coastal regions of China.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-138, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Severe convective storms (SCS) and related hail constitute a major atmospheric hazard in various parts of Europe. In our study we identified the regions the most affected by hail over a 10-year period (2005 to 2014) covering France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg. A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousands of SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help to understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Oriol Rodríguez, Joan Bech, Juan de Dios Soriano, Delia Gutiérrez, and Salvador Castán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1513–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020, 2020
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Post-event damage assessment data are used to study the consequences of natural hazards, such as strong convective winds (i.e. tornadoes, downbursts). The information gathered during fieldwork can be used to characterize those events, which is necessary to build up and maintain robust and homogeneous databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events. Accordingly, a methodology to carry out damage surveys of strong-convective-wind events is presented in this article.
Christina Kagkara, Wolfram Wobrock, Céline Planche, and Andrea I. Flossmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1469–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020, 2020
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Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km2 with more than 50 mm rain accumulation was observed during IOP7a of HyMeX. This study evaluates the performance of a bin-resolved cloud model for simulating this heavy-precipitation event. The simulation results were compared with observations of rain accumulation, radar reflectivity, temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, 5 min rain rates, and raindrop size distributions.
Diego Cerrai, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Marika Koukoula, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1463–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1463-2020, 2020
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On 1 September 2019 Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco, unleashing unprecedented destruction on the northern Bahamas. Dorian was characterized by extreme winds, extensive coastal flooding, and impressive precipitation. We studied the event through images acquired by the synthetic aperture radars (SARs) mounted on European Space Agency satellites to derive flooding maps showing the extent of the devastation. We found that the flooded area in the Bahamas was at least 3000 km2.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-153, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Impact of assimilation of various observation data set on the forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based GNSS Zenithal Total Delay data set providing information on humidity has the largest impact on the analyses and the forecasts. Indeed it represents an evenly spread and frequent data set available at each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality but this impact is not statistically significant.
Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1369–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020, 2020
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We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
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Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-74, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Of severe tropical cyclones (TCs) lead to devastating losses. Nevertheless, to construct a robust risk assessment is difficult based on historical TC records only. This paper addresses this issue by introducing a computationally simple approach, using operational ensemble forecasts to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with data equivalent to more than 10 000 years of TC events. This method will be of high relevance for insurance and disaster risk reduction applications.
Marco Tedesco, Steven McAlpine, and Jeremy R. Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 907–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their impact on economy. Here, we show that value of property exposed to Hurricane Florence in September 2018 was USD 52 billion vs. USD 10 billion that would have occurred at the beginning of the 19th century due to urban expansion that increased after 1950s and the increasing number of houses built near water, showing the importance of accounting for the distribution of new buildings in risk and exposure.
James M. Done, Ming Ge, Greg J. Holland, Ioana Dima-West, Samuel Phibbs, Geoffrey R. Saville, and Yuqing Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020, 2020
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Assessing tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk is challenging due to a lack of historical TC wind data. This paper presents a novel approach to simulating landfalling TC winds anywhere on Earth. It captures local features such as high winds over coastal hills and lulls over rough terrain. A dataset of over 700 global historical wind footprints has been generated to provide new views of historical events. This dataset can be used to advance our understanding of overland TC wind risk.
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias, Paloma Esteve, Ana María Tarquis, and Alberto Garrido
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, 2020
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We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020
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The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020, 2020
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Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, 2020
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In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Philip Ward, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2855–2877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, 2019
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The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, 2019
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This work investigates the dependence between drought hazard and yield anomalies of rainfed cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula using the copula theory. The applied methodology allows us to estimate the likelihood of wheat and barley loss under drought conditions, and a dependence among extreme values is suggested. From the decision-making point of view this study aims to contribute to the mitigation of drought-related crop failure.
Yoav Yair, Yifat Yair, Baruch Rubin, Ronit Confino-Cohen, Yosef Rosman, Eduardo Shachar, and Menachem Rottem
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2715–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019, 2019
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During severe thunderstorms, cold outflows can eject pollen and dust particles from the surface, releasing allergens and causing
thunderstorm asthmaepidemics in sensitive populations. We report the first case in Israel that occurred on 25 October 2015. The emergency room presentation records from three hospitals in central Israel showed a clear increase in patients with respiratory complaints immediately after the passage of a massive super-cell thunderstorm in the area.
Carlos D. Hoyos, Lina I. Ceballos, Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla, Julián Sepúlveda, Silvana M. López-Zapata, Manuel D. Zuluaga, Nicolás Velásquez, Laura Herrera-Mejía, Olver Hernández, Gisel Guzmán-Echavarría, and Mauricio Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2635–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019, 2019
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On the morning of 18 May 2015, a flash flood in the La Liboriana river basin inundated the town of Salgar, killing more than 100 people. The ultimate goal of science, regarding risk management, is to be able to reduce the number of people affected by severe storms. Our goal is to identify the meteorological conditions that led to the flood, assess the characteristics of the rainfall events before the disaster, and identify lessons for vulnerable regions settled in complex terrains.
Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt, and Deepak Vatvani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, 2019
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Tropical cyclone wind models are often used in engineering applications. However, these models lack the required accuracy when the size of the tropical cyclone is not known. In this paper, new relationships are derived to describe parameters affecting the size. These relationships are formulated using observed data and make it possible to estimate tropical cyclone size and to use this information in tropical cyclone wind models to obtain more reliable estimates of the tropical cyclone winds.
Yongqiang Liu, Lu Hao, Decheng Zhou, Cen Pan, Peilong Liu, Zhe Xiong, and Ge Sun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2281–2294, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, 2019
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A transition zone often exists between a moist upper river reach and an arid lower reach in a watershed with complex topography. This zone is more suitable for human activities but is difficult to identify in climate classification. We found that a hydrological index overpowers a meteorological index in identifying a transition zone of a watershed in northwestern China, indicating the important role of the land-surface processes and human disturbances in formulating the transition zone.
William C. Arthur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-192, 2019
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We have developed a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), to undertake hazard and risk assessments at continental scales. The model enables users to build an understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of TC-related wind speeds across full ocean basins, but at a fine spatial resolution. The model can also be applied to single events, either scenarios or forecast events, to inform detailed impact assessments.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
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This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
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In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1509–1539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019, 2019
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In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization can exert a large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of the TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Guojie Wang, Guofu Wang, Jinlong Huang, and Tong Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1319–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, 2019
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Considering flood risk composed of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability from global to local scales, this paper reviews and presents increasing observed flood losses and projections of flood hazard and losses. We acknowledge existence of multiple driving factors and of considerable uncertainty, in particular with regards to projections for the future. Finally, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction from a global framework to regional and local scales.
Sorin Burcea, Roxana Cică, and Roxana Bojariu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, 2019
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The mapping of convective storms in the area of the transboundary Prut River basin was developed using a 15-year radar dataset (2003–2017). The analysis is based on data sampled in successive 6 min scans of the atmosphere, to detect and track the convective storms. The results highlighted a yearly, monthly, and daily variation of convective activity but also spatial distribution patterns. The study of atmospheric convection is important in assessing the risks associated with extreme weather.
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019
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Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, 2019
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Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote-sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of 23 vegetation types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.
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Short summary
The paper shows the application of a new volcanic emission preprocessor for the chemical transport model WRF-Chem. The model is evaluated with different observational data sets for the eruption of the Grimsvötn volcano 2011.
The paper shows the application of a new volcanic emission preprocessor for the chemical...
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