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We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
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NHESS | Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
NHESS | Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2873–2888, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2873–2888, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2873-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
NHESS | Articles | Volume 20, issue 11

Research article 02 Nov 2020

Research article | 02 Nov 2020

Sensitivity of modeled snow stability data to meteorological input uncertainty

Bettina Richter et al.

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Short summary
We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
Read more
Citation
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Final-revised paper
Preprint
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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