Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, 2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, 2020

Research article 04 Jun 2020

Research article | 04 Jun 2020

Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland

Marco Broccardo et al.

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Cited articles

Akkar, S. and Bommer, J. J.: Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV, and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region, and the Middle East, Seismol. Res. Lett., 81, 195–206,, 2010. 
Ambraseys, N. N., Douglas, J., Sarma, S. K., and Smit, P. M.: Equations for the estimation of strong ground motions from shallow crustal earthquakes using data from Europe and the Middle East: horizontal peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 3, 1–53,, 2005. 
Bachmann, C. E., Wiemer, S., Woessner, S., and Hainzl, S.: Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems, Geophys. J. Int., 186, 793–807,, 2011. 
Baisch, S., Koch, C., and Muntendam-Bos, A.: Traffic light systems: to what extent can induced seismicity be controlled?, Seismol. Res. Lett., 90, 1145–1154,, 2019. 
Baker, J. W. and Gupta, A.: Bayesian Treatment of Induced Seismicity in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 106, 860–870,, 2016. 
Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Final-revised paper