Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
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04 Jun 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 04 Jun 2020
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Department of Civil Engineering and Industrial Design,
University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Arnaud Mignan
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Francesco Grigoli
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Dimitrios Karvounis
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Antonio Pio Rinaldi
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Laurentiu Danciu
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Hannes Hofmann
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Claus Milkereit
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Torsten Dahm
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Günter Zimmermann
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Vala Hjörleifsdóttir
Orkuveita Reykjavíkur (Reykjavík Energy), Reykjavik, Iceland
Stefan Wiemer
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Tomáš Fischer, Pavla Hrubcová, Torsten Dahm, Heiko Woith, Tomáš Vylita, Matthias Ohrnberger, Josef Vlček, Josef Horálek, Petr Dědeček, Martin Zimmer, Martin P. Lipus, Simona Pierdominici, Jens Kallmeyer, Frank Krüger, Katrin Hannemann, Michael Korn, Horst Kämpf, Thomas Reinsch, Jakub Klicpera, Daniel Vollmer, and Kyriaki Daskalopoulou
Sci. Dril., 31, 31–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-31-31-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-31-31-2022, 2022
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The newly established geodynamic laboratory aims to develop modern, comprehensive, multiparameter observations at depth for studying earthquake swarms, crustal fluid flow, mantle-derived fluid degassing and processes of the deep biosphere. It is located in the West Bohemia–Vogtland (western Eger Rift) geodynamic region and comprises a set of five shallow boreholes with high-frequency 3-D seismic arrays as well as continuous real-time fluid monitoring at depth and the study of the deep biosphere.
Xiaodong Ma, Marian Hertrich, Florian Amann, Kai Bröker, Nima Gholizadeh Doonechaly, Valentin Gischig, Rebecca Hochreutener, Philipp Kästli, Hannes Krietsch, Michèle Marti, Barbara Nägeli, Morteza Nejati, Anne Obermann, Katrin Plenkers, Antonio P. Rinaldi, Alexis Shakas, Linus Villiger, Quinn Wenning, Alba Zappone, Falko Bethmann, Raymi Castilla, Francisco Seberto, Peter Meier, Thomas Driesner, Simon Loew, Hansruedi Maurer, Martin O. Saar, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 13, 301–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-301-2022, 2022
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Questions on issues such as anthropogenic earthquakes and deep geothermal energy developments require a better understanding of the fractured rock. Experiments conducted at reduced scales but with higher-resolution observations can shed some light. To this end, the BedrettoLab was recently established in an existing tunnel in Ticino, Switzerland, with preliminary efforts to characterize realistic rock mass behavior at the hectometer scale.
Viktor J. Bruckman, Gregor Giebel, Christopher Juhlin, Sonja Martens, Antonio P. Rinaldi, and Michael Kühn
Adv. Geosci., 56, 13–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-13-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-13-2021, 2021
Djamil Al-Halbouni, Robert A. Watson, Eoghan P. Holohan, Rena Meyer, Ulrich Polom, Fernando M. Dos Santos, Xavier Comas, Hussam Alrshdan, Charlotte M. Krawczyk, and Torsten Dahm
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3351–3395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3351-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3351-2021, 2021
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The rapid decline of the Dead Sea level since the 1960s has provoked a dynamic reaction from the coastal groundwater system, with physical and chemical erosion creating subsurface voids and conduits. By combining remote sensing, geophysical methods, and numerical modelling at the Dead Sea’s eastern shore, we link groundwater flow patterns to the formation of surface stream channels, sinkholes and uvalas. Better understanding of this karst system will improve regional hazard assessment.
Gesa Maria Petersen, Simone Cesca, Sebastian Heimann, Peter Niemz, Torsten Dahm, Daniela Kühn, Jörn Kummerow, Thomas Plenefisch, and the AlpArray and AlpArray-Swath-D working groups
Solid Earth, 12, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-1233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-1233-2021, 2021
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The Alpine mountains are known for a complex tectonic history. We shed light onto ongoing tectonic processes by studying rupture mechanisms of small to moderate earthquakes between 2016 and 2019 observed by the temporary AlpArray seismic network. The rupture processes of 75 earthquakes were analyzed, along with past earthquakes and deformation data. Our observations point at variations in the underlying tectonic processes and stress regimes across the Alps.
Alba Zappone, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Melchior Grab, Quinn C. Wenning, Clément Roques, Claudio Madonna, Anne C. Obermann, Stefano M. Bernasconi, Matthias S. Brennwald, Rolf Kipfer, Florian Soom, Paul Cook, Yves Guglielmi, Christophe Nussbaum, Domenico Giardini, Marco Mazzotti, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 12, 319–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-319-2021, 2021
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The success of the geological storage of carbon dioxide is linked to the availability at depth of a capable reservoir and an impermeable caprock. The sealing capacity of the caprock is a key parameter for long-term CO2 containment. Faults crosscutting the caprock might represent preferential pathways for CO2 to escape. A decameter-scale experiment on injection in a fault, monitored by an integrated network of multiparamerter sensors, sheds light on the mobility of fluids within the fault.
Teresa Jordan, Patrick Fulton, Jefferson Tester, David Bruhn, Hiroshi Asanuma, Ulrich Harms, Chaoyi Wang, Doug Schmitt, Philip J. Vardon, Hannes Hofmann, Tom Pasquini, Jared Smith, and the workshop participants
Sci. Dril., 28, 75–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-75-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-75-2020, 2020
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A scientific borehole planning workshop sponsored by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program convened in early 2020 at Cornell University in the NE United States. Cornell plans drilling to test the potential to use geothermal heat from depths of 2700–4500 m and rock temperatures of 60 to 120 °C to heat its campus. The workshop focused on designing companion scientific projects to investigate the coupled thermal–chemical–hydrological–mechanical workings of continental crust.
Camilla Rossi, Francesco Grigoli, Simone Cesca, Sebastian Heimann, Paolo Gasperini, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, Torsten Dahm, Christopher J. Bean, Stefan Wiemer, Luca Scarabello, Nima Nooshiri, John F. Clinton, Anne Obermann, Kristján Ágústsson, and Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir
Adv. Geosci., 54, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-129-2020, 2020
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We investigate the microseismicity occurred at Hengill area, a complex tectonic and geothermal site, where the origin of earthquakes may be either natural or anthropogenic. We use a very dense broadband seismic monitoring network and apply full-waveform based method for location. Our results and first characterization identified different types of microseismic clusters, which might be associated to either production/injection or the tectonic activity of the geothermal area.
Sonja Martens, Maren Brehme, Viktor J. Bruckman, Christopher Juhlin, Johannes Miocic, Antonio P. Rinaldi, and Michael Kühn
Adv. Geosci., 54, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-1-2020, 2020
Dominik Zbinden, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Tobias Diehl, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 11, 909–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-909-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-909-2020, 2020
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The deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland, aimed at generating electricity and heat. The fluid pumped into the underground caused hundreds of small earthquakes and one larger one felt by the local population. Here we use computer simulations to study the physical processes that led to the earthquakes. We find that gas present in the subsurface could have intensified the seismicity, which may have implications for future geothermal projects conducted in similar geological conditions.
Mohammadreza Jamalreyhani, Pınar Büyükakpınar, Simone Cesca, Torsten Dahm, Henriette Sudhaus, Mehdi Rezapour, Marius Paul Isken, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, and Sebastian Heimann
Solid Earth Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2020-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-2020-55, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We model the source of the 24 January 2020 Mw 6.77 Elazığ-Sivrice (Turkey) earthquake using a combination of different data and we analyzed its seismic sequences. This earthquake occurred in the east Anatolian fault and it has filled the large part of the former seismic gap zone. An unbroken part has left after this earthquake and has the potential to host a future earthquake. This work provides information about the fault system and helps to the mitigation of seismic hazard in Southern Turkey.
Linus Villiger, Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Oliver Dutler, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Paul Antony Selvadurai, Arnaud Mignan, Katrin Plenkers, Domenico Giardini, Florian Amann, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 11, 627–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-627-2020, 2020
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Hydraulic stimulation summarizes fracture initiation and reactivation due to high-pressure fluid injection. Several borehole intervals covering intact rock and pre-existing fractures were targets for high-pressure fluid injections within a decameter-scale, crystalline rock volume. The observed induced seismicity strongly depends on the target geology. In addition, the severity of the induced seismicity per experiment counter correlates with the observed transmissivity enhancement.
Michèle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2677–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2677-2019, 2019
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Maps are an established way to illustrate natural hazards and regularly used to communicate with non-experts. However, there is evidence that they are frequently misconceived. Using a real case, our study shows that applying or disregarding best practices in visualization, editing, and presentation significantly impacts the comprehensibility of seismic hazard information. We suggest scrutinizing current natural-hazard communication strategies and empirically testing new products.
Sebastian Heimann, Hannes Vasyura-Bathke, Henriette Sudhaus, Marius Paul Isken, Marius Kriegerowski, Andreas Steinberg, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 1921–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1921-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1921-2019, 2019
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We present an open-source software framework for fast and flexible forward modelling of seismic and acoustic wave phenomena and elastic deformation. It supports a wide range of applications across volcanology, seismology, and geodesy to study earthquakes, volcanic processes, landslides, explosions, mine collapses, ground shaking, and aseismic faulting. The framework stimulates reproducible research and open science through the exchange of pre-calculated Green's functions on an open platform.
Robert A. Watson, Eoghan P. Holohan, Djamil Al-Halbouni, Leila Saberi, Ali Sawarieh, Damien Closson, Hussam Alrshdan, Najib Abou Karaki, Christian Siebert, Thomas R. Walter, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 1451–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1451-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1451-2019, 2019
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The fall of the Dead Sea level since the 1960s has provoked the formation of over 6000 sinkholes, a major hazard to local economy and infrastructure. In this context, we study the evolution of subsidence phenomena at three area scales at the Dead Sea’s eastern shore from 1967–2017. Our results yield the most detailed insights to date into the spatio-temporal development of sinkholes and larger depressions (uvalas) in an evaporite karst setting and emphasize a link to the falling Dead Sea level.
Sonja Martens, Christopher Juhlin, Viktor J. Bruckman, Gregor Giebel, Thomas Nagel, Antonio P. Rinaldi, and Michael Kühn
Adv. Geosci., 49, 31–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-49-31-2019, 2019
Djamil Al-Halbouni, Eoghan P. Holohan, Abbas Taheri, Robert A. Watson, Ulrich Polom, Martin P. J. Schöpfer, Sacha Emam, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 1219–1241, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1219-2019, 2019
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A 2-D numerical modelling approach to simulate the mechanical formation of sinkhole cluster inside large-scale karstic depressions is presented. Different multiple cavity growth scenarios at depth are compared regarding the mechanical process and collapse style. The outcomes of the models are compared to results from remote sensing and geophysics for an active sinkhole area in the Dead Sea region.
Marius Kriegerowski, Simone Cesca, Matthias Ohrnberger, Torsten Dahm, and Frank Krüger
Solid Earth, 10, 317–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-317-2019, 2019
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We developed a method that allows to estimate the acoustic attenuation of seismic waves within regions with high earthquake source densities. Attenuation is of high interest as it allows to draw conclusions on the origin of seismic activity. We apply our method to north-west Bohemia, which is regularly affected by earthquake swarms during which thousands of earthquakes are registered within a few days. We find reduced attenuation within the active volume, which may indicate high fluid content.
Peter Gaebler, Lars Ceranna, Nima Nooshiri, Andreas Barth, Simone Cesca, Michaela Frei, Ilona Grünberg, Gernot Hartmann, Karl Koch, Christoph Pilger, J. Ole Ross, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 59–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-59-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-59-2019, 2019
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On 3 September 2017 official channels of the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea announced the successful test of a nuclear device. This study provides a
multi-technology analysis of the 2017 North Korean event and its aftermath using a wide array of geophysical methods (seismology, infrasound, remote sensing, radionuclide monitoring, and atmospheric transport modeling). Our results clearly indicate that the September 2017 North Korean event was in fact a nuclear test.
Djamil Al-Halbouni, Eoghan P. Holohan, Abbas Taheri, Martin P. J. Schöpfer, Sacha Emam, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 9, 1341–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1341-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1341-2018, 2018
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Sinkholes are round depression features in the ground that can cause high economic and life loss. On the Dead Sea shoreline, hundreds of sinkholes form each year driven by the fall of the water level and subsequent out-washing and dissolution of loose sediments. This study investigates the mechanical formation of sinkholes by numerical modelling. It highlights the role of material strength in the formation of dangerous collapse sinkholes and compares it to findings from a field site in Jordan.
Ulrich Polom, Hussam Alrshdan, Djamil Al-Halbouni, Eoghan P. Holohan, Torsten Dahm, Ali Sawarieh, Mohamad Y. Atallah, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 9, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1079-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-1079-2018, 2018
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The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha (Dead Sea) is affected by subsidence and sinkholes. Different models and hypothetical processes have been suggested in the past; high-resolution shear wave reflection surveys carried out in 2013 and 2014 showed the absence of evidence for a massive shallow salt layer as formerly suggested. Thus, a new process interpretation is proposed based on both the dissolution and physical erosion of Dead Sea mud layers.
Ahoura Jafarimanesh, Arnaud Mignan, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Arnaud Mignan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 241–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-241-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-241-2018, 2018
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The Utsu productivity law, one of the main relationships in seismicity statistics, gives the average number of aftershocks produced by a mainshock of a given magnitude. I demonstrate that the law can be formulated in the solid seismicity theory, where it is parameterized in terms of aftershock density within a geometrical solid, constrained by the mainshock size. This suggests that aftershocks can be studied by applying simple rules of analytic geometry on a static stress field.
Florian Amann, Valentin Gischig, Keith Evans, Joseph Doetsch, Reza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Dutler, Linus Villiger, Bernard Brixel, Maria Klepikova, Anniina Kittilä, Claudio Madonna, Stefan Wiemer, Martin O. Saar, Simon Loew, Thomas Driesner, Hansruedi Maurer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 115–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-115-2018, 2018
Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hansruedi Maurer, Hannes Krietsch, Florian Amann, Keith Frederick Evans, Morteza Nejati, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Anne Christine Obermann, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 39–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-39-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-39-2018, 2018
Arnaud Mignan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 107–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-107-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-107-2016, 2016
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Induced seismicity is a concern for the industries relying on fluid injection in the deep parts of the Earth’s crust. At the same time, fluid injection sites provide natural laboratories to study the impact of increased fluid pressure on earthquake generation. In this study, I show that simple geometric operations on a static stress field produced by volume change at depth explains two empirical laws of induced seismicity without having recourse to complex models derived from rock mechanics.
T. Dahm, P. Hrubcová, T. Fischer, J. Horálek, M. Korn, S. Buske, and D. Wagner
Sci. Dril., 16, 93–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-16-93-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-16-93-2013, 2013
S. J. Nanda, K. F. Tiampo, G. Panda, L. Mansinha, N. Cho, and A. Mignan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 143–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-143-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-143-2013, 2013
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In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
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Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
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Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
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Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
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In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
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This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
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This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
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This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
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The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
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This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
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Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
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This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
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It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
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We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-975, 2022
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Power outage models can help the utilities in managing risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not represent the uncertainties of infrastructure failure well. We conceptualize a new model that overcomes these challenges.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
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This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
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Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
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Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
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Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
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Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
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Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
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It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
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Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
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We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
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Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
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Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
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To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
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Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
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This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
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The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
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The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
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The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
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Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
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In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-112, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large scale avalanche modeling method with a state of the art probilistic risk tool. Over 40'000 individual avalanches were simulated and a building dataset with over 13'000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, 2022
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A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, 2022
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Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
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Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, 2022
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This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022
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The aim of our study was to question the validity of the assumed direct linkage between drivers of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, mainly found in the frameworks of drought early warning systems (DEWSs). We analysed more than 5000 scientific studies leading us to the conclusion that the local context can contribute to drought drivers resulting in these drought impacts. Our research aims to increase the relevance and utility of the information provided by DEWSs.
Mattia Amadio, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Stephen Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 265–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022, 2022
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We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
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Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis...
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