Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020

Research article 04 Jun 2020

Research article | 04 Jun 2020

Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland

Marco Broccardo et al.

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Cited articles

Akkar, S. and Bommer, J. J.: Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV, and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region, and the Middle East, Seismol. Res. Lett., 81, 195–206, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.2.195, 2010. 
Ambraseys, N. N., Douglas, J., Sarma, S. K., and Smit, P. M.: Equations for the estimation of strong ground motions from shallow crustal earthquakes using data from Europe and the Middle East: horizontal peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 3, 1–53, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-005-0183-0, 2005. 
Bachmann, C. E., Wiemer, S., Woessner, S., and Hainzl, S.: Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems, Geophys. J. Int., 186, 793–807, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05068.x, 2011. 
Baisch, S., Koch, C., and Muntendam-Bos, A.: Traffic light systems: to what extent can induced seismicity be controlled?, Seismol. Res. Lett., 90, 1145–1154, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180337, 2019. 
Baker, J. W. and Gupta, A.: Bayesian Treatment of Induced Seismicity in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 106, 860–870, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120150258, 2016. 
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Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
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