Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Research article 04 Jun 2020
Research article | 04 Jun 2020
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland
Marco Broccardo et al.
No articles found.
Alba Zappone, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Melchior Grab, Quinn C. Wenning, Clément Roques, Claudio Madonna, Anne C. Obermann, Stefano M. Bernasconi, Matthias S. Brennwald, Rolf Kipfer, Florian Soom, Paul Cook, Yves Guglielmi, Christophe Nussbaum, Domenico Giardini, Marco Mazzotti, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 12, 319–343,Short summary
The success of the geological storage of carbon dioxide is linked to the availability at depth of a capable reservoir and an impermeable caprock. The sealing capacity of the caprock is a key parameter for long-term CO2 containment. Faults crosscutting the caprock might represent preferential pathways for CO2 to escape. A decameter-scale experiment on injection in a fault, monitored by an integrated network of multiparamerter sensors, sheds light on the mobility of fluids within the fault.
Teresa Jordan, Patrick Fulton, Jefferson Tester, David Bruhn, Hiroshi Asanuma, Ulrich Harms, Chaoyi Wang, Doug Schmitt, Philip J. Vardon, Hannes Hofmann, Tom Pasquini, Jared Smith, and the workshop participants
Sci. Dril., 28, 75–91,Short summary
A scientific borehole planning workshop sponsored by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program convened in early 2020 at Cornell University in the NE United States. Cornell plans drilling to test the potential to use geothermal heat from depths of 2700–4500 m and rock temperatures of 60 to 120 °C to heat its campus. The workshop focused on designing companion scientific projects to investigate the coupled thermal–chemical–hydrological–mechanical workings of continental crust.
Camilla Rossi, Francesco Grigoli, Simone Cesca, Sebastian Heimann, Paolo Gasperini, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, Torsten Dahm, Christopher J. Bean, Stefan Wiemer, Luca Scarabello, Nima Nooshiri, John F. Clinton, Anne Obermann, Kristján Ágústsson, and Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir
Adv. Geosci., 54, 129–136,Short summary
We investigate the microseismicity occurred at Hengill area, a complex tectonic and geothermal site, where the origin of earthquakes may be either natural or anthropogenic. We use a very dense broadband seismic monitoring network and apply full-waveform based method for location. Our results and first characterization identified different types of microseismic clusters, which might be associated to either production/injection or the tectonic activity of the geothermal area.
Sonja Martens, Maren Brehme, Viktor J. Bruckman, Christopher Juhlin, Johannes Miocic, Antonio P. Rinaldi, and Michael Kühn
Adv. Geosci., 54, 1–5,
Dominik Zbinden, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Tobias Diehl, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 11, 909–933,Short summary
The deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland, aimed at generating electricity and heat. The fluid pumped into the underground caused hundreds of small earthquakes and one larger one felt by the local population. Here we use computer simulations to study the physical processes that led to the earthquakes. We find that gas present in the subsurface could have intensified the seismicity, which may have implications for future geothermal projects conducted in similar geological conditions.
Mohammadreza Jamalreyhani, Pınar Büyükakpınar, Simone Cesca, Torsten Dahm, Henriette Sudhaus, Mehdi Rezapour, Marius Paul Isken, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, and Sebastian Heimann
Solid Earth Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
We model the source of the 24 January 2020 Mw 6.77 Elazığ-Sivrice (Turkey) earthquake using a combination of different data and we analyzed its seismic sequences. This earthquake occurred in the east Anatolian fault and it has filled the large part of the former seismic gap zone. An unbroken part has left after this earthquake and has the potential to host a future earthquake. This work provides information about the fault system and helps to the mitigation of seismic hazard in Southern Turkey.
Linus Villiger, Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Oliver Dutler, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Paul Antony Selvadurai, Arnaud Mignan, Katrin Plenkers, Domenico Giardini, Florian Amann, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 11, 627–655,Short summary
Hydraulic stimulation summarizes fracture initiation and reactivation due to high-pressure fluid injection. Several borehole intervals covering intact rock and pre-existing fractures were targets for high-pressure fluid injections within a decameter-scale, crystalline rock volume. The observed induced seismicity strongly depends on the target geology. In addition, the severity of the induced seismicity per experiment counter correlates with the observed transmissivity enhancement.
Michèle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2677–2700,Short summary
Maps are an established way to illustrate natural hazards and regularly used to communicate with non-experts. However, there is evidence that they are frequently misconceived. Using a real case, our study shows that applying or disregarding best practices in visualization, editing, and presentation significantly impacts the comprehensibility of seismic hazard information. We suggest scrutinizing current natural-hazard communication strategies and empirically testing new products.
Robert A. Watson, Eoghan P. Holohan, Djamil Al-Halbouni, Leila Saberi, Ali Sawarieh, Damien Closson, Hussam Alrshdan, Najib Abou Karaki, Christian Siebert, Thomas R. Walter, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 1451–1468,Short summary
The fall of the Dead Sea level since the 1960s has provoked the formation of over 6000 sinkholes, a major hazard to local economy and infrastructure. In this context, we study the evolution of subsidence phenomena at three area scales at the Dead Sea’s eastern shore from 1967–2017. Our results yield the most detailed insights to date into the spatio-temporal development of sinkholes and larger depressions (uvalas) in an evaporite karst setting and emphasize a link to the falling Dead Sea level.
Sonja Martens, Christopher Juhlin, Viktor J. Bruckman, Gregor Giebel, Thomas Nagel, Antonio P. Rinaldi, and Michael Kühn
Adv. Geosci., 49, 31–35,
Marius Kriegerowski, Simone Cesca, Matthias Ohrnberger, Torsten Dahm, and Frank Krüger
Solid Earth, 10, 317–328,Short summary
We developed a method that allows to estimate the acoustic attenuation of seismic waves within regions with high earthquake source densities. Attenuation is of high interest as it allows to draw conclusions on the origin of seismic activity. We apply our method to north-west Bohemia, which is regularly affected by earthquake swarms during which thousands of earthquakes are registered within a few days. We find reduced attenuation within the active volume, which may indicate high fluid content.
Peter Gaebler, Lars Ceranna, Nima Nooshiri, Andreas Barth, Simone Cesca, Michaela Frei, Ilona Grünberg, Gernot Hartmann, Karl Koch, Christoph Pilger, J. Ole Ross, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 10, 59–78,Short summary
On 3 September 2017 official channels of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea announced the successful test of a nuclear device. This study provides a multi-technology analysis of the 2017 North Korean event and its aftermath using a wide array of geophysical methods (seismology, infrasound, remote sensing, radionuclide monitoring, and atmospheric transport modeling). Our results clearly indicate that the September 2017 North Korean event was in fact a nuclear test.
Djamil Al-Halbouni, Eoghan P. Holohan, Abbas Taheri, Martin P. J. Schöpfer, Sacha Emam, and Torsten Dahm
Solid Earth, 9, 1341–1373,Short summary
Sinkholes are round depression features in the ground that can cause high economic and life loss. On the Dead Sea shoreline, hundreds of sinkholes form each year driven by the fall of the water level and subsequent out-washing and dissolution of loose sediments. This study investigates the mechanical formation of sinkholes by numerical modelling. It highlights the role of material strength in the formation of dangerous collapse sinkholes and compares it to findings from a field site in Jordan.
Ulrich Polom, Hussam Alrshdan, Djamil Al-Halbouni, Eoghan P. Holohan, Torsten Dahm, Ali Sawarieh, Mohamad Y. Atallah, and Charlotte M. Krawczyk
Solid Earth, 9, 1079–1098,Short summary
The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha (Dead Sea) is affected by subsidence and sinkholes. Different models and hypothetical processes have been suggested in the past; high-resolution shear wave reflection surveys carried out in 2013 and 2014 showed the absence of evidence for a massive shallow salt layer as formerly suggested. Thus, a new process interpretation is proposed based on both the dissolution and physical erosion of Dead Sea mud layers.
Ahoura Jafarimanesh, Arnaud Mignan, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 241–250,Short summary
The Utsu productivity law, one of the main relationships in seismicity statistics, gives the average number of aftershocks produced by a mainshock of a given magnitude. I demonstrate that the law can be formulated in the solid seismicity theory, where it is parameterized in terms of aftershock density within a geometrical solid, constrained by the mainshock size. This suggests that aftershocks can be studied by applying simple rules of analytic geometry on a static stress field.
Florian Amann, Valentin Gischig, Keith Evans, Joseph Doetsch, Reza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Dutler, Linus Villiger, Bernard Brixel, Maria Klepikova, Anniina Kittilä, Claudio Madonna, Stefan Wiemer, Martin O. Saar, Simon Loew, Thomas Driesner, Hansruedi Maurer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 115–137,
Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hansruedi Maurer, Hannes Krietsch, Florian Amann, Keith Frederick Evans, Morteza Nejati, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Anne Christine Obermann, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 39–61,
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 107–113,Short summary
Induced seismicity is a concern for the industries relying on fluid injection in the deep parts of the Earth’s crust. At the same time, fluid injection sites provide natural laboratories to study the impact of increased fluid pressure on earthquake generation. In this study, I show that simple geometric operations on a static stress field produced by volume change at depth explains two empirical laws of induced seismicity without having recourse to complex models derived from rock mechanics.
T. Dahm, P. Hrubcová, T. Fischer, J. Horálek, M. Korn, S. Buske, and D. Wagner
Sci. Dril., 16, 93–99,
S. J. Nanda, K. F. Tiampo, G. Panda, L. Mansinha, N. Cho, and A. Mignan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 143–162,
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
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Luca Locatelli, Beniamino Russo, Alejandro Acero Oliete, Juan Carlos Sánchez Catalán, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, and Montse Martínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1219–1232,Short summary
Bathing water quality at public beaches is often compromised by the presence of urban sewer systems that usually discharge, mostly during rainfalls, untreated sewer water into lakes, rivers or seas. In this study we analyzed and quantified the impact of sewer discharges into the sea of a large Spanish city. This study provides a useful idea for local water managers and for people bathing in these areas about how long and how much an urban sewer system can affect the seawater quality.
Chenxiao Tang, Xinlei Liu, Yinghua Cai, Cees Van Westen, Yu Yang, Hai Tang, Chengzhang Yang, and Chuan Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1163–1186,Short summary
Recovering from major earthquakes is a challenge due to a destablized environment. Over 11 years, we monitored a region hit by the Wenchuan earthquake, finding the loss caused by postseismic hazards was more than that caused by the earthquake. The main reason was a rush in reconstruction without proper hazard and risk assessment. It was concluded that postseismic recovery should consider not only spatial but also temporal dynamics of hazards as well as possible interaction among hazards.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096,Short summary
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Charlotte Heinzlef, Vincent Becue, and Damien Serre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1049–1068,Short summary
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Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044,Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023,Short summary
The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Roland Löwe and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 981–997,Short summary
To consider potential future urban developments in pluvial flood risk assessment, we develop empirical relationships for imperviousness and flood damage based on an analysis of existing urban characteristics. Results suggest that (1) data resolutions must be carefully selected, (2) there are lower limits for the spatial scale at which predictions can be generated, and (3) depth-dependent damage estimates are challenging to reproduce empirically and can be vulnerable to simulation artifacts.
Yaxu Wang, Juan Lv, Jamie Hannaford, Yicheng Wang, Hongquan Sun, Lucy J. Barker, Miaomiao Ma, Zhicheng Su, and Michael Eastman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906,Short summary
Due to the specific applicability of drought impact indicators, this study identifies which drought indicators are suitable for characterising drought impacts and the contribution of vulnerability factors. The results show that the relationship varies across different drought impacts and cities; some factors have a strong positive correlation with drought vulnerability. This study can support drought planning work and provide background for the indices used in drought monitoring applications.
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813,Short summary
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712,Short summary
The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 643–672,Short summary
Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake-affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. This study conducts such a comprehensive review for mainland China and aims to better serve the natural disaster prevention and mitigation cause in China.
Marcello Arosio, Mario L. V. Martina, and Rui Figueiredo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 521–547,Short summary
Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today’s socio-technological world, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessment. This paper proposes a holistic, graph-based approach for assessing the risk of complex systems. The feasibility of the approach is discussed by an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.
James H. Williams, Thomas M. Wilson, Nick Horspool, Ryan Paulik, Liam Wotherspoon, Emily M. Lane, and Matthew W. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 451–470,Short summary
Post-event field survey data from two tsunami events, the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, Chile, are used in this study to develop fragility functions for roads and bridges. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of supplementing post-event field surveys with remotely sensed data. The resulting fragility functions address a substantial research gap in tsunami impacts on infrastructure and include a range of subtleties in asset and hazard characteristics.
Yuepeng Cui, Daan Liang, and Bradley Ewing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 413–424,Short summary
The methodology presented in this paper is considered an important entry point to addressing the complex problems related to disaster resilience. Regardless of storms, hurricane impact on local employment is found to be either temporary or permanent in nature. Relating the concept of resilience to observable socioeconomic activities helps us gain a deeper understanding of the drivers and processes of post-storm recovery. Studies play a major role in bridging knowledge gaps.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343,Short summary
Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Philippe Weyrich, Elena Mondino, Marco Borga, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anthony Patt, and Anna Scolobig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 287–298,
Laddaporn Ruangpan, Zoran Vojinovic, Silvana Di Sabatino, Laura Sandra Leo, Vittoria Capobianco, Amy M. P. Oen, Michael E. McClain, and Elena Lopez-Gunn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 243–270,Short summary
This article aims to provide a critical review of the literature and indicate some directions for future research based on the current knowledge gaps in the area of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for hydro-meteorological risk reduction. The final full analysis was performed on 146 closely related articles. A review showed that many advancements related to NBSs have been made to date, but there are still many challenges that will play an important role in extending knowledge in the coming years.
Lena Lankenau, Christopher Massolle, Bärbel Koppe, and Veronique Krull
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 197–220,Short summary
Sandbag and sandbag replacement systems (SBRSs) for flood defence are compared in terms of functionality (practical tests), costs, time, helpers and logistics (fictitious realistic scenarios). SBRSs are comparable in their functionality to sandbagging. All of the SBRSs considered show time-saving and logistical advantages. Under the assumed conditions, the higher investment costs of the SBRSs are offset with one subsequent reuse of the system owing to lower costs for helpers and logistics.
Yuhan Yang, Jie Yin, Mingwu Ye, Dunxian She, and Jia Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 181–195,Short summary
Emergency medical service (EMS) response is important for pre-hospital lifesaving, but disasters increase the difficulty of rescue, which increases the pressure on EMS facilities. In order to avoid the failure of EMS facilities during disasters, we propose a multi-coverage optimal location model for EMS facilities based on results of disaster risk assessment. Results showed that the optimized EMS locations reduced the delay in response and significantly increased the number of rescued people.
Joel C. Gill, Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180,Short summary
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
Alessia Ferrari, Susanna Dazzi, Renato Vacondio, and Paolo Mignosa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 59–72,Short summary
With the aim of improving resilience to flooding, this paper presents a methodology for creating a wide database of hypothetical levee-breach scenarios obtained from 2-D numerical modelling. The results can support civil protection activities during emergency planning and management, increasing preparedness against floods. The methodology is applicable to any lowland area protected by river levees. An example of the outcome concerning a pilot area in northern Italy is presented here.
Nina Frolova, Valery Larionov, Jean Bonnin, Sergey Suchshev, Alexander Ugarov, and Nataliya Malaeva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 95–106,Short summary
The paper is devoted to the structure and content of impact databases for natural disasters and technological accidents. The application of the database for disaster risk assessment and management is highlighted. Special attention is paid to usage of impact data for calibration of earthquake loss models in order to increase the reliability of near-real-time estimates.
Gyumin Lee, Kyung Soo Jun, and Minji Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2767–2779,Short summary
This study proposes a system for the scientific selection of evaluation indices and priority areas for non-point source control. We developed a framework to prioritize catchments in terms of the risk of non-point source pollution considering the characteristics of polluted runoff from a non-point source using a multi-criteria decision-making method.
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This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis...