Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020
Research article
 | 
20 May 2020
Research article |  | 20 May 2020

Systematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast dataset

Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast

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Cited articles

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Bazile, E., Marquet, P., Bouteloup, Y., and Bouyssel, F.: The Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) scheme in the NWP models at Meteo France, in: Workshop on Workshop on Diurnal cycles and the stable boundary layer, 7–10 November 2011, pp. 127–135, ECMWF, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, 2012. a
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We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
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