Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
Research article
20 May 2020
Research article |  | 20 May 2020

Systematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast dataset

Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast

Related authors

What determines the predictability of a Mediterranean cyclone?
Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, Matthieu Plu, Laurent Descamps, and Thomas Rieutord
EGUsphere,,, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Combining short-range dispersion simulations with fine-scale meteorological ensembles: probabilistic indicators and evaluation during a 85Kr field campaign
Youness El-Ouartassy, Irène Korsakissok, Matthieu Plu, Olivier Connan, Laurent Descamps, and Laure Raynaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15793–15816,,, 2022
Short summary
Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep convection schemes
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882,,, 2022
Short summary
The impact of deep convection representation in a global atmospheric model on the warm conveyor belt and jet stream during NAWDEX IOP6
Gwendal Rivière, Meryl Wimmer, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1011–1031,,, 2021
Short summary
SymPKF (v1.0): a symbolic and computational toolbox for the design of parametric Kalman filter dynamics
Olivier Pannekoucke and Philippe Arbogast
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5957–5976,,, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872,,, 2024
Short summary
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801,,, 2024
Short summary
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582,,, 2024
Short summary
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428,,, 2024
Short summary
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

AghaKouchak, A., Behrangi, A., Sorooshian, S., Hsu, K., and Amitai, E.: Evaluation of Satellite-Retrieved Extreme Precipitation Rates across the Central United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116,, 2011. a
Anagnostopoulou, C. and Tolika, K.: Extreme Precipitation in Europe: Statistical Threshold Selection Based on Climatological Criteria, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 107, 479–489,, 2012. a
Anderson, T. W. and Darling, D. A.: Asymptotic Theory of Certain “Goodness of Fit” Criteria Based on Stochastic Processes, Ann. Math. Stat., 23, 193–212,, 1952. a
Argence, S., Lambert, D., Richard, E., Chaboureau, J.-P., and Söhne, N.: Impact of Initial Condition Uncertainties on the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall in the Mediterranean: A Case Study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 1775–1788,, 2008. a
Bazile, E., Marquet, P., Bouteloup, Y., and Bouyssel, F.: The Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) scheme in the NWP models at Meteo France, in: Workshop on Workshop on Diurnal cycles and the stable boundary layer, 7–10 November 2011, pp. 127–135, ECMWF, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, 2012. a
Short summary
We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
Final-revised paper