Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
Research article
 | 
20 May 2020
Research article |  | 20 May 2020

Systematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast dataset

Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast

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Short summary
We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
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