This paper presents a stochastic event-based method for analysis of extreme floods, which uses a Monte Carlo procedure to sample initial conditions, snowmelt and rainfall. A study of 20 catchments in Norway shows that this method gives flood estimates that are closer to those obtained using statistical flood frequency analysis than a deterministic event-based model based on a single design storm.

To predict timing and magnitude peak run-off, meteorological and calibrated hydrological models are commonly coupled. A flash-flood forecasting chain is presented based on a process-based run-off generation module with no need for calibration. This chain has been evaluated using data for the Emme catchment (Switzerland). The outcomes of this study show that operational flash predictions in ungauged basins can benefit from the use of information on run-off processes.

Wenjia gully is a typical gully-type debris flow, which has a large-scale catchment and great hazard risk to the local people. Based on the monitoring data for almost 6 years until now, the characteristics of debris-flow-triggering parameters (pore pressure and rainfall) have been analyzed, especially the relationship with debris flow occurrences. Then, a combined threshold has been presented and tested in order to provide a method for safeguarding the population in the region.

Planning geo-hydrological risk mitigation strategies is crucial in contexts of strong urbanization, high population density and great morphological heterogeneity. The paper addresses possible support in comparing small catchments on a quantitative basis and realizing a ranking among them: pointing out the more urgent situations and the relative factors may result in optimizing economic investments in prevention works.

In the framework of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program, we have increased the knowledge on the geohazards affecting the Enguri hydroelectrical plant (Caucasus, Georgia). 2 km from the dam, active deformation (2–5 cm yr⁻¹) affects a slope facing the water reservoir. Our field, seismological and numerical analyses show that the worst scenario is represented by seismic shaking with a local peak ground acceleration capable of generating an unstable rock volume of up to 48 ± 12 × 10⁶ m³.

We investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of landslide and debris flow hazards in Shaanxi Province and quantified the relationships between the occurrence rates of the two hazards and their influencing factors, including antecedent rainfall amount, rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, terrain slope, land cover type and soil type. Rainfall amount, duration, and intensity and slope are the dominant factors controlling slope stability across this region.

Here we present new numerical simulations showing that Holocene submarine landslides along the North Anatolian Fault in the Aegean Sea may have triggered tsunamis higher than the ones expected for earthquake sources. During the Holocene, the shore facing the city of Alexandroupoli may have been impacted by tsunami up to 1.65 m at the coastline.

We use the Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory to analyse the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Debbie on the Australian economy. We show that industries and regions that were not directly affected by storm and flood damage suffered significant job and income losses, highlighting that producers in modern economies are strongly interconnected - initially localised production shortfalls can ripple through entire upstream supply-chain networks and severely affect regional and national economies.

Cellular automata are useful tools to simulate wildfire propagation. We design a cellular automaton to simulate a severe wildfire that took place in Portugal in 2012 and resulted in almost 25 000 ha burned. The explosive stage is adequately modeled when refining the role played by the wind in fire spreading. Results show a probability of ignition out of the limits of the observed scar, information that may help choose where to allocate resources for firefighting.

The work in this paper can be useful for government engineers who need to make a decision on which debris flow barrier to use and assess the consequences of debris flow. Although the experiments in this paper are relatively simple, a deeper understanding of the debris flow process can be enhanced with the results in the present study.

Landslides are destructive events, threatening the integrity of land transport systems. This paper presents how road networks are vulnerable to landslides, with emphasis on the consequences for affected road users. Results show the merits of using agent-based traffic modelling to assess the impacts of road network interruptions on rural communities by providing insights into the characteristics of the population affected and the effects on its daily routine in terms of detour costs.

Directional effects are often relevant when studying the extreme values of natural agents, such as wind, waves, or currents. The use of a priori defined divisions is a common but subjective way to address the problem and may not fit data well in certain cases. In this work, a rational method is presented for the selection of directional sectors that, taking into account statistical indicators of the data, leads to the definition of independent and statistically homogeneous sectors.

This paper aims to map flood hazard areas under the influence of the Uruguay River, Itaqui (southern Brazil), using a calibrated digital elevation model (DEM), historic river level data and geoprocessing techniques. Assessment of the areas that can potentially be flooded can help to reduce the negative impact of flood events by supporting the process of land-use planning in areas exposed to flood hazards.

In this work, we propose a novel methodology (ReTSVI) to integrate a social vulnerability index into flood hazard methodologies. ReTSVI combines a series of modules that are pieces of information that interact during an evacuation, such as evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social vulnerability indexes, to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate in a given location.

We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.

This paper reviews the computation of vulnerability levels (VLs) of a coast to inundation with a known model. We refer to the original proposal, detailing the VL computation through an accurate investigation of the local wave climate. We prove that the resulting vulnerability is very sensitive due to the wave features taken into account, which have to be properly assessed. The research is the follow-up of a wider project set along the Bay of Lalzit (Albania).

This research aimed to assess the tsunami flow velocity and height reduction produced by a planned elevated road parallel to the coast of Banda Aceh called the Banda Aceh Outer Ring Road (BORR). The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) was used to simulate eight scenarios of the tsunami. One of them was based on the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Two magnitudes of earthquake were used, that is, 8.5 and 9.15 M_w. The elevated road can potentially mitigate the impacts of future tsunamis.

Flood maps can help stakeholders and the public understand their flood risk. We evaluated the quality of publicly accessible flood maps in Canadian communities designated as flood risk areas. We found that most maps (62 %) are low quality (meeting less than half of the criteria) and the highest score was 78 % (seven of nine criteria met). Canada must make a more concerted effort to produce high-quality flood maps to support its international commitment to disaster risk reduction.