Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2653-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2653-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Oct 2018
Research article |
| 18 Oct 2018
| 18 Oct 2018
Convection-permitting regional climate simulations for representing floods in small- and medium-sized catchments in the Eastern Alps
Christian Reszler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
JR-AquaConSol GmbH, Steyrergasse 21, 8010 Graz, Austria
Matthew Blaise Switanek
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria
Heimo Truhetz
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria
Related authors
Christian Reszler, Jürgen Komma, Hermann Stadler, Elmar Strobl, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6147–6161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6147-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Karst aquifers are vulnerable to pollution due to the typically short particle travel times. As the rainwater runs off on the surface it may collect contamination before infiltrating. This paper proposes a new field-mapping method for the ability of the landscape to produce and convey surface runoff. The method is based on local data collection in the field, and a visual assessment of surface runoff traces from a distance, which makes it suitable for larger areas than traditional field mapping.
Daniel Viviroli, Martin Jury, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Heimo Truhez, and Douglas Maraun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1920, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Estimating the frequency and magnitude of floods is challenging due to the limited length of streamflow records. Here, we explore whether an extensive archive of meteorological forecasts run over past dates can assist in this context. After processing and concatenating these data for use as input to a hydrological model, we derive flood statistics from simulated streamflow. Results are promising for the larger catchments studied, providing a valuable complementary perspective on rare floods.
Matthew Switanek, Gernot Resch, Andreas Gobiet, Daniel Günther, Christoph Marty, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 18, 6005–6026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-6005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-6005-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow depth plays an important role in water resources, mountain tourism, and hazard management across the European Alps. Our study uses station-based historical observations to quantify how changes in temperature and precipitation affect average seasonal snow depth. We find that the relationship between these variables has been surprisingly robust over the last 120 years. This allows us to more accurately estimate how future climate will affect seasonal snow depth in different elevation zones.
Christoph Schlager, Gottfried Kirchengast, Juergen Fuchsberger, Alexander Kann, and Heimo Truhetz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2855–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2855-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2855-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Empirical high-resolution surface wind fields from two study areas, automatically generated by a weather diagnostic application, were intercompared with wind fields of different modeling approaches. The focus is on evaluating spatial differences and displacements between the different datasets. In general, the spatial verification indicates a better statistical agreement for the first study area (hilly WegenerNet Feldbach Region), than for the second one (mountainous WegenerNet Johnsbachtal).
Christian Reszler, Jürgen Komma, Hermann Stadler, Elmar Strobl, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6147–6161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6147-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Karst aquifers are vulnerable to pollution due to the typically short particle travel times. As the rainwater runs off on the surface it may collect contamination before infiltrating. This paper proposes a new field-mapping method for the ability of the landscape to produce and convey surface runoff. The method is based on local data collection in the field, and a visual assessment of surface runoff traces from a distance, which makes it suitable for larger areas than traditional field mapping.
Matthew B. Switanek, Peter A. Troch, Christopher L. Castro, Armin Leuprecht, Hsin-I Chang, Rajarshi Mukherjee, and Eleonora M. C. Demaria
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The commonly used bias correction method called quantile mapping assumes a constant function of error correction values between modeled and observed distributions. Our article finds that this function cannot be assumed to be constant. We propose a new bias correction method, called scaled distribution mapping, that does not rely on this assumption. Furthermore, the proposed method more explicitly accounts for the frequency of rain days and the likelihood of individual events.
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Recent large-inland-lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: processes, causes, and mechanisms
Modelling urban stormwater drainage overflows for assessing flood hazards: application to the urban area of Dakar (Senegal)
Dynamics and impacts of monsoon-induced geological hazards: a 2022 flood study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Monte Carlo-based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in western Germany
Mind the gap: misalignment between drought monitoring and community realities
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona, USA, case study
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Groundwater recharge in Brandenburg is declining – but why?
Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
Brief communication: Hydrological and hydraulic investigation of the extreme September 2024 flood on the Lamone River in Emilia-Romagna, Italy
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Improving Pluvial Flood Simulations with Multi-source DEM Super-Resolution
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Drought propagation in high-latitude catchments: Insights from a 60-Year Analysis Using Standardized Indices
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Evaluating Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration flood risk using hybrid method of AutoML and AHP
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Hail events in Germany, rare or frequent natural hazards?
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces RIM2D (Rapid Inundation Model 2D), a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions that is ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out and structural changes challenge water resources management of the German capital Berlin. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater and surface water. Analysing the impacts of the 2018–2023 drought helps to address water-related challenges and implement effective measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5 m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced by urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 monsoon in Pakistan's Swat River basin brought record rainfall, exceeding averages by 7–8%, triggering catastrophic debris flows and floods. Key factors include extreme rainfall, deforestation, and steep slopes. Fieldwork, remote sensing, and simulations highlight land degradation's role in intensifying floods. Recommendations include reforestation, early warning systems, and land use reforms to protect communities and reduce future risks
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Post-wildfire flooding and debris are dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Till Francke and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Brandenburg is among the driest federal states in Germany. The low ground water recharge (GWR) is fundamental to both water supply and the support of natural ecosystems. In this study, we show that the decline of observed discharge and groundwater tables since 1980 can be explained by climate change in combination with an increasing leaf area index. Still, simulated GWR rates remain highly uncertain due to the uncertainty of precipitation trends.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Alessia Ferrari, Giulia Passadore, Renato Vacondio, Luca Carniello, Mattia Pivato, Elena Crestani, Francesco Carraro, Francesca Aureli, Sara Carta, Francesca Stumpo, and Paolo Mignosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-216, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Between September 17 and 20, 2024, the Lamone River basin in Northern Italy was hit by extreme precipitations. This study adopts the hydrological model Rhyme and the hydrodynamic model PARFLOOD to simulate the hydrological processes in the watershed and the levee-breach-induced inundation affecting the Traversara village. The close match between the resulting flooded areas and the observed ones shows the capability of these numerical models to support the preparedness for at-risk populations.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Yue Zhu, Paolo Burlando, Puay Yok Tan, Christian Geiß, and Simone Fatichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting floods in regions with limited terrain data. By utilizing a deep learning model, we developed a method that improves the resolution of digital elevation data by fusing low-resolution elevation data with high-resolution satellite imagery. This approach not only substantially enhances flood prediction accuracy, but also holds potential for broader applications in simulating natural hazards that require terrain information.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
Claudia Teutschbein, Thomas Grabs, Markus Giese, Andrijana Todorović, and Roland Barthel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2742, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how droughts develop and spread in high-latitude regions, focusing on the unique conditions found in areas like Scandinavia. It reveals that droughts affect soil, rivers, and groundwater differently, depending on factors like land cover, water availability, and soil properties. The findings highlight the importance of tailored water management strategies to protect resources and ecosystems in these regions, especially as climate change continues to impact weather patterns.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Yu Gao, Haipeng Lu, Yaru Zhang, Hengxu Jin, Shuai Wu, Yixuan Gao, and Shuliang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), where we determined flood risk assessment indices across different dimensions, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. We constructed a flood risk assessment model using AutoML and AHP to examine the spatial and temporal changes in flood risk in the region over the past 30 years (1990 to 2020), aiming to provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and resilience strategies in the YRDUA.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Tabea Wilke, Katharina Lengfeld, and Markus Schultze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hail in Germany is a natural hazard that is not in everyone's focus, even though it can cause great damage. In this study we focus on hail frequency, sizes and spatial distribution in Germany based on crowd sourcing and weather radar data. We compare different algorithms based on weather radar data with crowd sourced data and show the annual and diurnal cycle of hail in Germany.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Cited articles
Addor, N., Rohrer, M., Furrer, R., and Seibert, J.: Propagation of biases in
climate models from the synoptic to the regional scale: Implications for bias
adjustment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 2075–2089, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024040, 2016.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases
the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19,
2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Allan, R. P. and Soden, B. J.: Atmospheric warming and the amplification of
precipitation extremes. Science, 321, 1481–1484, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160787, 2008.
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and
the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002.
Awan, N. K., Truhetz, H., and Gobiet, A.: Parameterization-Induced Error
Characteristics of MM5 and WRF Operated in Climate Mode over the Alpine Region:
An Ensemble-Based Analysis, J. Climate, 24, 3107–3123, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3674.1, 2011.
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schaer, C.: Evaluation of the convection-resolving
regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 119, 7889–7907, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021478, 2014.
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schaer, C.: Heavy precipitation in a changing climate:
Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42,
1165–1172, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062588, 2015.
Berg, P., Moseley, C., and Haerter, J. O.: Strong increase in convective
precipitation in response to higher temperatures, Nat. Geosci., 6, 181–185,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1731, 2013.
Berthou, S., Kendon, E. J., Chan, S. C., Ban, N., Leutwyler, D., Schär, C.,
and Fosser, G.: Pan-European climate at convection-permitting scale: a model
intercomparison study, Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4114-6, in press, 2018.
Blöschl, G., Reszler, C., and Komma, J.: A spatially distributed flash flood
forecasting model, Environ. Model. Softw., 23, 464–478, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.06.010, 2008.
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R. A. P., Merz, B.,
Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bonacci, O., Borga, O. M., Canjevac,
I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Frovola, N., Gorbachova,
L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R.,
Kohnová, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova,
M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M.,
Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Rogger, M., Salinas, J., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M.,
Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Zivkovic, N.:
Changing climate shifts timing of European floods, Science, 357, 588–590, 2017.
BMLFUW: Hydrologic Atlas Austria, in: chap. 6.2: Hydrogeology, Bundesministerium
für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft (BMLFUW), Sektion
Wasser – Abt. Wasserhaushalt, Austrian ministery, 2007.
Böhm, U., Kücken, M., Ahrens, W., Block, A., Hauffe, D., Keuler, K.,
Rockel, B., and Will, A.: CLM – The Climate Version of LM: Brief Description
and Long-Term Applications, COSMO Newsletter, 6, 225–235, 2006.
Chan, S. C., Kendon, E. J., Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., Ferro, C. A., and
Stephenson, D. B.: Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate
model improve the simulated daily precipitation?, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1475–1495,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9, 2013.
Chan, S. C., Kendon, E. J., Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., Roberts, N. M., and
Ferro, C. A.: The value of high-resolution met office regional climate models
in the simulation of multihourly precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 27,
6155–6174, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00723.1, 2014.
Chan, S. C., Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., and Blenkinsop, S.:
The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a
high-resolution convective permitting model, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 094024,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094024, 2016.
Dankers, R., Christensen, O. B., Feyen, L., Kalas, M., and de Roo, A.:
Evaluation of very high resolution climate model data for simulating flood
hazards in the Upper Danube Basin, J. Hydrol., 347, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.055, 2007.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars,
A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R.,
Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E.
V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Koehler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P.,
Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P.,
Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis:
configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy.
Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Flügel H. W. and Neubauer, F.: Geologische Karte der Steiermark 1:200.000,
Geologische Bundesanstalt, Wien, 1984.
Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., and Tebaldi, C.: Linking climate change modelling
to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological
modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1547–1578, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1556, 2007.
Giorgi, F., Jones, C., and Asrar, G. R.: Addressing climate information needs
at the regional level: the CORDEX framework, WMO Bulletin, 58, 175–183, 2009.
Gobiet, A., Kotlarski, S., Beniston, M., Heinrich, G., Rajczak, J., and Stoffel,
M.: 21st Century Climate Change in the European Alps – A Review, Sci. Total
Environ., 493, 1138–1151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050, 2014.
Godina, R. and Müller, G.: Das Hochwasser in Österreich vom 22. bis
30 Juni, 2009 – Beschreibung der hydrologischen Situation, Report, Austrian
Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW),
Abt. VII/3, Vienna, Austria, 21 pp., 2009.
Grayson, R. and Blöschl, G.: Summary of pattern comparison and concluding
remarks, chap. 14, in: Spatial Patterns in Catchment Hydrology: Observations
and Modelling, edited by: Grayson, R. and Blöschl, G., Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, 355–367, 2000.
Hanel, M. and Buishand, T. A.: On the value of hourly precipitation extremes
in regional climate model simulations, J. Hydrol., 393, 265–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.024, 2010.
Hennegriff, W., Kolokotronis, V., Weber, H., and Bartels, H.: Klimawandel und
Hochwasser – Erkenntnisse und Anpassungsstrategien beim Hochwasserschutz,
KA – Abwasser, Abfall, 2006, 8, 2006.
Hershfield, D. M.: Estimating the probable maximum precipitation, J. Hydraul.
Div. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 87, 99–116, 1961.
Hewitt, C. D. and Griggs, D. J.: Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes
and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES), Eos Trans. AGU, 85, 566, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004EO520005, 2004.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L.
M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Deque, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet,
A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K.,
Kovats, S., Kroener, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard,
E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K.,
Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann,
C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new
high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg.
Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2013.
Kain, J. S.: The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: An update, J. Appl.
Meteorol., 43, 170–181, 2004.
Katragkou, E., Garcia-Diez, M., Vautard, R., Sobolowski, S., Zanis, P.,
Alexandri, G., Cardoso, R. M., Colette, A., Fernandez, J., Gobiet, A., Goergen,
K., Karacostas, T., Knist, S., Mayer, S., Soares, P. M. M., Pytharoulis, I.,
Tegoulias, I., Tsikerdekis, A., and Jacob, D.: Regional climate hindcast
simulations within EURO-CORDEX: evaluation of a WRF multi-physics ensemble,
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 603–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, 2015.
Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Kendon, E. J., and Jones, R. G.: Use
of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: baseline
performance and future flood changes, Climatic Change, 133, 193–208,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1455-6, 2015.
Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, M. J., Chan, S. C., and
Senior, C. A.: Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather
forecast resolution model, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 570–576, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2258, 2014.
Kida, H., Koide, T., Sasaki, H., and Chiba, M.: A New Approach for Coupling a
Limited Area Model to a Gcm for Regional Climate Simulations, J. Meteorol. Soc.
Jpn., 69, 723–728, 1991.
Knist, S., Goergen, K., and Simmer, C.: Evaluation and projected changes of
precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over
Central Europe, Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x, in press, 2018.
Komma, J., Reszler, C., Blöschl, G., and Haiden, T.: Ensemble prediction
of floods – catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 431–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-431-2007, 2007.
Köplin, N., Schädler, B., Viviroli, D., and Weingartner, R.: Seasonality
and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change, Hydrol.
Process., 28, 2567–2578, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9757, 2014.
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Deque, M., Gobiet,
A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Luethi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schaer,
C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional
climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the
EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.
Langhans, W., Schmidli, J., Fuhrer, O., Bieri, S., and Schär, C.: Long-Term
Simulations of Thermally Driven Flows and Orographic Convection at
Convection-Parameterizing and Cloud-Resolving Resolutions, J. Appl. Meteorol.
Clim., 52, 1490–1510, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0167.1, 2013.
Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard E.: Unexpected rise in extreme precipitation
caused by a shift in rain type?, Nat. Geosci., 2, 373, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo524, 2009.
Lenderink, G., Barbero, R., Loriaux, J. M., and Fowler, H. J.: Super-Clausius–Clapeyron
Scaling of Extreme Hourly Convective Precipitation and Its Relation to Large-Scale
Atmospheric Conditions, J. Climate, 30, 6037–6052, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0808.1, 2017.
Lorenz, P. and Skoda, G.: Bemessungsniederschläge kurzer Dauerstufen mit
inadäquaten Daten, Nr. 80, Mitteilungsblatt des Hydrographischen Dienstes
in Österreich, Wien, 2000.
Maraun, D.: Nonstationarities of regional climate model biases in European
seasonal mean temperature and precipitation sums, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39,
L06706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051210, 2012.
Maraun, D.: Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping, and Downscaling: Revisiting the
Inflation Issue, J. Climate, 26, 2137–2143, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00821.1, 2013.
Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J.,
Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themessl, M., Venema, V. K.
C., Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and Thiele-Eich,
I.: Precipitation Downscaling Under Climate Change: Recent Developments to Bridge
the Gap between Dynamical Models and the End User, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010.
Maurer, E. P. and Pierce, D. W.: Bias correction can modify climate model
simulated precipitation changes without adverse effect on the ensemble mean,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 915–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-915-2014, 2014.
Mearns, L. O., Gutowski, W. J., Jones, R., Leung, R., McGinnis, S., Nunes, A.
M. B., and Qian, Y.: A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North
America, Eos Trans. AGU, 90, 311–312, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009EO360002, 2009.
Meredith, E. P., Maraun, D., Semenov, V. A., and Park, W.: Evidence for added
value of convection-permitting models for studying changes in extreme precipitation,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 12500–12513, 2015.
Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: A process typology of regional floods, Water
Resour. Res., 39, 1340, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001952, 2003.
Merz, R., Blöschl, G., und Piock-Ellena, U.: Zur Anwendbarkeit des
Gradex-Verfahrens in Österreich (Applicability of the Gradex-Method in
Austria), Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft, 51, 291–305, 1999.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
Nissen, K. M. and Ulbrich, U.: Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics
of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate
change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1177-1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017, 2017.
Parajka, J., Kohnová, S., Bálint, G., Barbuc, M., Borga, M., Claps, P.,
Cheval, S., Dumitrescu, A., Gaume, E., Hlavčová, K., Merz, R., Pfaundler,
M., Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., and Blöschl, G.: Seasonal characteristics
of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range, J. Hydrol., 394, 78–89,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.015, 2010.
Penna, D., Tromp-van Meerveld, H. J., Gobbi, A., Borga, M., and Dalla Fontana,
G.: The influence of soil moisture on threshold runoff generation processes in
an alpine headwater catchment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 689–702,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-689-2011, 2011.
Piani, C., Haerter, J. O., and Coppola, E.: Statistical bias correction for
daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe, Theor. Appl.
Climatol., 99, 187–192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9, 2010.
Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., Suklitsch, M., Truhetz, H., Awan, N. K., Keuler, K.,
and Georgievski, G.: Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations,
Clim. Dynam., 41, 2655–2677, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1744-6, 2013.
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K.,
Keller, M., Toelle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S.,
Schmidli, J., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung, R.:, A review on regional
convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and
challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015.
Prein, A. F., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Keuler, K., Goergen, K., Teichmann, C.,
Maule, C. F., van Meijgaard, E., Deque, M., Nikulin, G., Vautard, R., Colette,
A., Kjellström, E., and Jacob, D.: Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX
0.11∘ and 0.44∘ simulations: high resolution, high benefits?,
Clim. Dynam., 46, 383–412, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2589-y, 2016.
Prein, A. F., Rasmussen, R. M., Ikeda, K., Liu, C., Clark, M. P., and Holland,
G. J.: The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes, Nat. Clim.
Change, 7, 48–52, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3168, 2017.
Reszler, C., Komma, J., Blöschl, G., and Gutknecht, D.: Ein Ansatz zur
Identifikation flächendetaillierter Abflussmodelle für die
Hochwasservorhersage, Hydrol. Wasserbewirt., 50, 220–232, 2006.
Reszler, C., Komma, J., Blöschl, G., and Gutknecht, D.: Dominante Prozesse
und Ereignistypen zur Plausibilisierung flächendetaillierter Niederschlag-Abflussmodelle,
Hydrol. Wasserbewirt., 52, 120–131, 2008a.
Reszler, C., Blöschl, G., and Komma, J.: Identifying runoff routing
parameters for operational flood forecasting in small to medium sized
catchments, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 112–129, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.1.112, 2008b.
Rockel, B., Will, A., and Hense, A.: Special issue on regional climate modelling
with COSMO-CLM (CCLM), Meteorol. Z., 17, 477–485, 2008.
Rogger, M., Pirkl, H., Viglione, A., Komma, J., Kohl, B., Kirnbauer, R., Merz,
R., and Blöschl, G.: Step changes in the flood frequency curve: Process
controls, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05544, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011187, 2012.
Ruch, C., Reszler, C., Rock, G., and Plieschnegger, M.: Flash Flood Warning
System – One Model, Two Methods, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 14, EGU2012-9437, 2012.
Schemm, S., Nisi, L., Martinov, A., Leuenberger, D., and Martius, O.: On the
link between cold fronts and hail in Switzerland, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17,
315–325, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.660, 2016.
Schrödter, H.: Verdunstung – Anwendungsorientierte Meßverfahren und
Bestimmungsmethoden, Springer Verlag, p. 186, 1985.
Seibert, P., Frank, A., and Formayer, H.: Synoptic and regional patterns of
heavy precipitation in Austria, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, 139–153,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-006-0198-8, 2007.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D., Wang, W.,
and Powers, J.: A description of the advanced research WRF version 2, Tech. Rep.,
NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2007.
Suklitsch, M., Gobiet, A., Truhetz, H., Awan, N. K., Göttel, H., and Jacob,
D.: Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the
Alpine area, Clim. Dynam., 37, 377–390, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0848-5, 2011.
Switanek, M. B., Troch, P. A., Castro, C. L., Leuprecht, A., Chang, H.-I.,
Mukherjee, R., and Demaria, E. M. C.: Scaled distribution mapping: a bias
correction method that preserves raw climate model projected changes, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, 2017.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Is bias correction of regional climate model (RCM)
simulations possible for nonstationary conditions?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
17, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, 2013.
Themeßl M., Gobiet, A., and Leuprecht, A.: Empirical-statistical downscaling
and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models, Int.
J. Climatol., 31, 1530–1544, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2168, 2011.
Tiedtke, M.: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in
large-scale models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1779–1800, 1989.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.: The changing
character of precipitation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1217,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205, 2003.
Wang, G., Wang, D., Trenberth, K. E., Erfanian, A., Yu, M., Bosilovich, M. G.,
and Parr, D. T.: The peak structure and future changes of the relationships
between extreme precipitation and temperature, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 268–274,
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3239, 2017.
Wood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic
implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate
model outputs, Climatic Change, 62, 189–216, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e, 2004.
Zittis, G., Bruggeman, A., Camera, C., Hadjinicolaou, P., and Lelieveld, J.:
The added value of convection permitting simulations of extreme precipitation
events over the eastern Mediterranean, Atmos. Res., 191, 20–33,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.03.002, 2017.
Short summary
Small-scale floods are a consequence of high rainfall rates in small areas that can occur along frontal activity and convective storms. This situation is expected to become more severe due to a warming climate. This study shows the test of fine-gridded (~ 3 km spacing) climate models combined with error-correction techniques for flood modelling in small- and medium-sized catchments. Results are promising, but further research is needed so these models can be applied in climate change studies.
Small-scale floods are a consequence of high rainfall rates in small areas that can occur along...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint