Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jul 2018
Research article |
| 03 Jul 2018
Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches
Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de
Catalunya Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Jordi Girona 1–3, 08034, Spain
Enrico Duo
Department of Physics and Earth Science, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat
1, Ferrara, 44122, Italy
Wiebke S. Jäger
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology,
Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, the Netherlands
Paolo Ciavola
Department of Physics and Earth Science, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat
1, Ferrara, 44122, Italy
José A. Jiménez
Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de
Catalunya Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Jordi Girona 1–3, 08034, Spain
Related authors
Marc Sanuy, Juan Carlos Peña, Sotiris Assimenidis, and José Antonio Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-104, 2023
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents the first classification of weather types associated to compound events of extreme rainfall and coastal storms (waves). The upper level low resulted in the main general configuration conducive to extreme compound events in NW Mediterranean conditions. We used objective classification methods coupled with a Bayesian Network to assess the non-linear relationships between the obtained weather types and other variables characterizing the events and their local magnitudes.
Marc Sanuy, Tomeu Rigo, José A. Jiménez, and M. Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3759–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a preliminary study to characterize events of simultaneous heavy rainfall and damaging waves at the regional scale (~600 km of coastline) in the NW Mediterranean. The atmospheric pressure conditions of such events are also classified into three main weather types, which are characterized in terms of severity of the forcing and probability of co-occurrence of simultaneous hazardous waves and rain. The study also presents some historical cases that are compared with obtained results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
Marc Sanuy, Juan Carlos Peña, Sotiris Assimenidis, and José Antonio Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-104, 2023
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents the first classification of weather types associated to compound events of extreme rainfall and coastal storms (waves). The upper level low resulted in the main general configuration conducive to extreme compound events in NW Mediterranean conditions. We used objective classification methods coupled with a Bayesian Network to assess the non-linear relationships between the obtained weather types and other variables characterizing the events and their local magnitudes.
Marc Sanuy, Tomeu Rigo, José A. Jiménez, and M. Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3759–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a preliminary study to characterize events of simultaneous heavy rainfall and damaging waves at the regional scale (~600 km of coastline) in the NW Mediterranean. The atmospheric pressure conditions of such events are also classified into three main weather types, which are characterized in terms of severity of the forcing and probability of co-occurrence of simultaneous hazardous waves and rain. The study also presents some historical cases that are compared with obtained results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
Enrico Duo, Arthur Chris Trembanis, Stephanie Dohner, Edoardo Grottoli, and Paolo Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study illustrates the implementation of a local-scale post-event survey that combined GPS and UAV-based techniques with qualitative information collected through interviews with local stakeholders. The comprehensive approach employed in this case study was conducted on the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event that impacted the shoreline on the 5-6 February 2015, called the St Agatha storm.
J. M. Brown, P. Ciavola, G. Masselink, R. McCall, and A. J. Plater
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 463–467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016, 2016
M. D. Harley, A. Valentini, C. Armaroli, L. Perini, L. Calabrese, and P. Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
L. Perini, L. Calabrese, G. Salerno, P. Ciavola, and C. Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper compares two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations, whose core is the Cost Distance tool of ArcGIS®. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods show a positive agreement.
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Public intention to participate in sustainable geohazard mitigation: an empirical study based on an extended theory of planned behavior
An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Design and application of a multi-hazard risk rapid assessment questionnaire for hill communities in the Indian Himalayan region
Identifying the drivers of private flood precautionary measures in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa
Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling
Classifying marine faults for hazard assessment offshore Israel: a new approach based on fault size and vertical displacement
Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions
Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy
Brief communication: Critical infrastructure impacts of the 2021 mid-July western European flood event
Multi-scenario urban flood risk assessment by integrating future land use change models and hydrodynamic models
Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy
Process-based flood damage modelling relying on expert knowledge: a methodological contribution applied to the agricultural sector
Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China
Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally-applicable framework: A case study in the Sofala region
Machine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditions
Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany
Invited perspectives: Managed realignment as a solution to mitigate coastal flood risks – optimizing success through knowledge co-production
Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals
Estimating return intervals for extreme climate conditions related to winter disasters and livestock mortality in Mongolia
Surveying the surveyors to address risk perception and adaptive-behaviour cross-study comparability
Comparison of sustainable flood risk management by four countries – the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan – and the implications for Asian coastal megacities
Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland
Full-scale experiments to examine the role of deadwood in rockfall dynamics in forests
Predicting drought and subsidence risks in France
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of an earthquake: Istanbul case study
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
The determinants affecting the intention of urban residents to prepare for flood risk in China
Strategic framework for natural disaster risk mitigation using deep learning and cost-benefit analysis
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Invited perspectives: Challenges and step changes for natural hazard – perspectives from the German Committee for Disaster Reduction (DKKV)
Invited perspectives: When research meets practice: challenges, opportunities, and suggestions from the implementation of the Floods Directive in the largest Italian river basin
Rapid landslide risk zoning toward multi-slope units of the Neikuihui tribe for preliminary disaster management
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps
Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment
Education, financial aid, and awareness can reduce smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought under climate change
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Regional county-level housing inventory predictions and the effects on hurricane risk
Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Invited Perspectives: “Small country, big challenges – Switzerland's hazard prevention research”
Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Bangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal flooding
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Huige Xing, Ting Que, Yuxin Wu, Shiyu Hu, Haibo Li, Hongyang Li, Martin Skitmore, and Nima Talebian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1529–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk reduction requires public power. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the public's intention to participate in disaster risk reduction. An empirical study was conducted using structural equation modeling data analysis methods. The findings show that public attitudes, perceptions of those around them, ability to participate, and sense of participation are important factors.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Roberto Fray Silva, Greicelene Jesus Silva, Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo, Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antônio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
Shivani Chouhan and Mahua Mukherjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1267–1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayas are prone to multi-hazards. To minimise loss, proper planning and execution are necessary. Data collection is the basis of any risk assessment process. This enhanced survey form is easy to understand and pictorial and identifies high-risk components of any building (structural and non-structural) surrounded by multi-hazards. Its results can help to utilise the budget in a prioritised way. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities) analysis has been performed.
Thulasi Vishwanath Harish, Nivedita Sairam, Liang Emlyn Yang, Matthias Garschagen, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal Asian cities are becoming more vulnerable to flooding. In this study we analyse the data collected from flood-prone houses in Ho Chi Minh City to identify what motivates the households to adopt flood precautionary measures. The results revealed that educating the households about the available flood precautionary measures and communicating the flood protection measures taken by the government encourage the households to adopt measures without having to experience multiple flood events.
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, and Antje Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 973–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-973-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe with 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling their warning system into question. An online survey revealed that 35 % of respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Many of those who were warned did not expect severe flooding, nor did they know how to react. The study provides entry points for improving Germany's warning system.
Blaise Mafuko Nyandwi, Matthieu Kervyn, François Muhashy Habiyaremye, François Kervyn, and Caroline Michellier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 933–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-933-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Risk perception involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about the uncertain impacts of hazards. It may contribute to improving risk communication and motivating the protective behaviour of the population living near volcanoes. Our work describes the spatial variation and factors influencing volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults of Goma exposed to Nyiragongo. It contributes to providing a case study for risk perception understanding in the Global South.
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation and fragility model selection.
Carlos Mesta, Gemma Cremen, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 711–731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change. The benefits of risk-mitigation measures remain inadequately quantified for potential future events in some multi-hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley (KV), Nepal, which this paper addresses. The analysis involves modeling two flood occurrence scenarios and using four residential exposure inventories representing current urban system or near-future development trajectories for KV.
Kirk B. Enu, Aude Zingraff-Hamed, Mohammad A. Rahman, Lindsay C. Stringer, and Stephan Pauleit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In sub-Saharan Africa, there is reported uptake of at least one nature-based solution (NBS) in 71 % of urban areas in the region for mitigating hydro-meteorological risks. These NBSs are implemented where risks exist but not where they are most severe. With these NBSs providing multiple ecosystem services and four out of every five NBSs creating livelihood opportunities, NBSs can help address major development challenges in the region, such as water and food insecurity and unemployment.
Madeleine-Sophie Déroche
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 251–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proves the need to conduct an in-depth review of the existing loss modelling framework and makes it clear that only a transdisciplinary effort will be up to the challenge of building global loss models. These two factors are essential to capture the interactions and increasing complexity of the three risk drivers (exposure, hazard, and vulnerability), thus enabling insurers to anticipate and be equipped to face the far-ranging impacts of climate change and other natural events.
May Laor and Zohar Gvirtzman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 139–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to provide a practical and relatively fast solution for early-stage planning of marine infrastructure that must cross a faulted zone. Instead of investing huge efforts in finding whether each specific fault meets a pre-defined criterion of activeness, we map the subsurface and determine the levels of fault hazard based on the amount of displacement and the fault's plane size. This allows for choosing the least problematic infrastructure routes at an early planning stage.
Ruth Stephan, Stefano Terzi, Mathilde Erfurt, Silvia Cocuccioni, Kerstin Stahl, and Marc Zebisch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study maps agriculture's vulnerability to drought in the European pre-Alpine regions of Thurgau (CH) and Podravska (SI). We combine region-specific knowledge with quantitative data mapping; experts of the study regions, far apart, identified a few common but more region-specific factors that we integrated in two vulnerability scenarios. We highlight the benefits of the participatory approach in improving the quantitative results and closing the gap between science and practitioners.
Lorenzo Cugliari, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, Andrea Cerase, Alessandro Amato, and Loredana Cerbara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4119–4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy since 2018. A total of 7342 questionnaires were collected in three survey phases (2018, 2020, 2021). In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the survey.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qinke Sun, Jiayi Fang, Xuewei Dang, Kepeng Xu, Yongqiang Fang, Xia Li, and Min Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding by extreme weather events and human activities can lead to catastrophic impacts in coastal areas. The research illustrates the importance of assessing the performance of different future urban development scenarios in response to climate change, and the simulation study of urban risks will prove to decision makers that incorporating disaster prevention measures into urban development plans will help reduce disaster losses and improve the ability of urban systems to respond to floods.
Andrea Taramelli, Margherita Righini, Emiliana Valentini, Lorenzo Alfieri, Ignacio Gatti, and Simone Gabellani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3543–3569, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to support decision-making processes to prioritize effective interventions for flood risk reduction and mitigation for the implementation of flood risk management concepts in urban areas. Our findings provide new insights into vulnerability spatialization of urban flood events for the residential sector, demonstrating that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially and is influenced by landscape characteristics, as well as building features.
Pauline Brémond, Anne-Laurence Agenais, Frédéric Grelot, and Claire Richert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3385–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3385-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is impossible to protect all issues against flood risk. To prioritise protection, economic analyses are conducted. The French Ministry of the Environment wanted to make available damage functions that we have developed for several sectors. For this, we propose a methodological framework and apply it to the model we have developed to assess damage to agriculture. This improves the description, validation, transferability and updatability of models based on expert knowledge.
Wenwu Gong, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3271–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model named variable fuzzy set and information diffusion (VFS–IEM–IDM) to assess the dynamic risk of compound hazards, which takes into account the interrelations between the hazard drivers, deals with the problem of data sparsity, and considers the temporal dynamics of the occurrences of the compound hazards. To examine the efficacy of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model, a case study of typhoon–rainstorm risks in Shenzhen, China, is presented.
Sanish Bhochhibhoya and Roisha Maharjan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that considers the dynamic relationship between loss and damage. The study combines physical risk with social science to mitigate the disaster caused by earthquakes in Nepal, taking socioeconomical parameters into account such that the risk estimates can be monitored over time. The main objective is to recognize the cause of and solutions to seismic hazard, building the interrelationship between individual, natural, and built-in environments.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-248, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We present a globally-applicable framework for compound flood risk assessments using combined hydrodynamic, impact and statistical modeling. Our results show the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Lennart Marien, Mahyar Valizadeh, Wolfgang zu Castell, Christine Nam, Diana Rechid, Alexandra Schneider, Christine Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen, Kathrin Wolf, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Myocardial infarctions (MIs; heart attacks) are influenced by temperature extremes, air pollution, lack of green spaces and ageing population. Here, we apply machine learning (ML) models in order to estimate the influence of various environmental and demographic risk factors. The resulting ML models can accurately reproduce observed annual variability in MI and inter-annual trends. The models allow quantification of the importance of individual factors and can be used to project future risk.
Annette Sophie Bösmeier, Iso Himmelsbach, and Stefan Seeger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.
Mark Schuerch, Hannah L. Mossman, Harriet E. Moore, Elizabeth Christie, and Joshua Kiesel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2879–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2879-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal nature-based solutions to adapt to sea-level rise, such as managed realignments (MRs), are becoming increasingly popular amongst scientists and coastal managers. However, local communities often oppose these projects, partly because scientific evidence for their efficiency is limited. Here, we propose a framework to work with stakeholders and communities to define success variables of MR projects and co-produce novel knowledge on the projects’ efficiency to mitigate coastal flood risks.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Masahiko Haraguchi, Nicole Davi, Mukund Palat Rao, Caroline Leland, Masataka Watanabe, and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2751–2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mass livestock mortality during severe winters (dzud in Mongolian) is a compound event. Summer droughts are a precondition for dzud. We estimate the return levels of relevant variables: summer drought conditions and minimum winter temperature. The result shows that the return levels of drought conditions vary over time. Winter severity, however, is constant. We link climatic factors to socioeconomic impacts and draw attention to the need for index insurance.
Samuel Rufat, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Alexander Fekete, Emeline Comby, Peter J. Robinson, Iuliana Armaş, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2655–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It remains unclear why people fail to act adaptively to reduce future losses, even when there is ever-richer information available. To improve the ability of researchers to build cumulative knowledge, we conducted an international survey – the Risk Perception and Behaviour Survey of Surveyors (Risk-SoS). We find that most studies are exploratory and often overlook theoretical efforts that would enable the accumulation of evidence. We offer several recommendations for future studies.
Faith Ka Shun Chan, Liang Emlyn Yang, Gordon Mitchell, Nigel Wright, Mingfu Guan, Xiaohui Lu, Zilin Wang, Burrell Montz, and Olalekan Adekola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2567–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sustainable flood risk management (SFRM) has become popular since the 1980s. This study examines the past and present flood management experiences in four developed countries (UK, the Netherlands, USA, and Japan) that have frequently suffered floods. We analysed ways towards SFRM among Asian coastal cities, which are still reliant on a hard-engineering approach that is insufficient to reduce future flood risk. We recommend stakeholders adopt mixed options to undertake SFRM practices.
Zélie Stalhandske, Valentina Nesa, Marius Zumwald, Martina S. Ragettli, Alina Galimshina, Niels Holthausen, Martin Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2531–2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We model the impacts of heat on both mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland in a changing climate. We estimate 658 heat-related death currently per year in Switzerland and CHF 665 million in losses in labour productivity. Should we remain on a high-emissions pathway, these values may double or even triple by the end of the century. Under a lower-emissions scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak by around mid-century.
Adrian Ringenbach, Elia Stihl, Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Perry Bartelt, Andreas Rigling, Marc Christen, Guang Lu, Andreas Stoffel, Martin Kistler, Sandro Degonda, Kevin Simmler, Daniel Mader, and Andrin Caviezel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2433–2443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2433-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forests have a recognized braking effect on rockfalls. The impact of lying deadwood, however, is mainly neglected. We conducted 1 : 1-scale rockfall experiments in three different states of a spruce forest to fill this knowledge gap: the original forest, the forest including lying deadwood and the cleared area. The deposition points clearly show that deadwood has a protective effect. We reproduced those experimental results numerically, considering three-dimensional cones to be deadwood.
Arthur Charpentier, Molly James, and Hani Ali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2401–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2401-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting consequences of drought episodes is complex, all the more when focusing on subsidence. We use 20 years of insurer data to derive a model to predict both the intensity and the severity of such events, using geophysical and climatic information located in space and time.
Oya Kalaycioglu, Serhat Emre Akhanli, Emin Yahya Mentese, Mehmet Kalaycioglu, and Sibel Kalaycioglu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-198, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between household characteristics and earthquake related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Turkey was assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security, risk of job loss, who live in squatter house are at higher risk of social vulnerability. We present findings in an open access R-shiny web application which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-183, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Tiantian Wang, Yunmeng Lu, Tiezhong Liu, Yujiang Zhang, Xiaohan Yan, and Yi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2185–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the main determinants influencing urban residents' intention to prepare for flood risk in China, we developed an integrated theoretical framework based on protection motivation theory (PMT) and validated it with structural equation modeling. The results showed that both threat perception and coping appraisal were effective in increasing residents' intention to prepare. In addition, individual heterogeneity and social context also had an impact on preparedness intentions.
Ji-Myong Kim, Sang-Guk Yum, Hyunsoung Park, and Junseo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2131–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2131-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Insurance data has been utilized with deep learning techniques to predict natural disaster damage losses in South Korea.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Benni Thiebes, Ronja Winkhardt-Enz, Reimund Schwarze, and Stefan Pickl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1969–1972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The worldwide challenge of the present as well as the future is to navigate the global community to a sustainable and secure future. Humanity is increasingly facing multiple risks under more challenging conditions. The continuation of climate change and the ever more frequent occurrence of extreme, multi-hazard, and cascading events are interacting with increasingly complex and interconnected societies.
Tommaso Simonelli, Laura Zoppi, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1819–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1819-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The paper discusses challenges (and solutions) emerged during a collaboration among practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists in the definition of flood damage maps in the Po River District. Social aspects were proven to be fundamental components of the risk assessment; variety of competences in the working group was key in finding solutions and revealing weaknesses of intermediate proposals. This paper finally highlights the need of duplicating such an experience at a broader European level.
Chih-Chung Chung and Zih-Yi Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1777-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Neikuihui tribe in northern Taiwan faces landslides during rainfall events. Since the government needs to respond with disaster management for the most at-risk tribes, this study develops rapid risk zoning, which involves the susceptibility, activity, exposure, and vulnerability of each slope unit of the area. Results reveal that one of the slope units of the Neikuihui tribal area has a higher risk and did suffer a landslide during the typhoon in 2016.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Max Schneider, Michelle McDowell, Peter Guttorp, E. Ashley Steel, and Nadine Fleischhut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1499–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1499-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershock forecasts are desired for risk response, but public communications often omit their uncertainty. We evaluate three uncertainty visualization designs for aftershock forecast maps. In an online experiment, participants complete map-reading and judgment tasks relevant across natural hazards. While all designs reveal which areas are likely to have many or no aftershocks, one design can also convey that areas with high uncertainty can have more aftershocks than forecasted.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Marthe L. K. Wens, Anne F. van Loon, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1201–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present an application of the empirically calibrated drought risk adaptation model ADOPT for the case of smallholder farmers in the Kenyan drylands. ADOPT is used to evaluate the effect of various top-down drought risk reduction interventions (extension services, early warning systems, ex ante cash transfers, and low credit rates) on individual and community drought risk (adaptation levels, food insecurity, poverty, emergency aid) under different climate change scenarios.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-112, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large scale avalanche modeling method with a state of the art probilistic risk tool. Over 40'000 individual avalanches were simulated and a building dataset with over 13'000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Caroline J. Williams, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Joseph E. Trainor, Meghan Millea, and Jamie L. Kruse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1055–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A neural network model based on publicly available data was developed to forecast the number of housing units for each of 1000 counties in the southeastern United States in each of the next 20 years. The estimated number of housing units is almost always (97 % of the time) less than 1 percentage point different than the observed number, which are predictive errors acceptable for most practical purposes. The housing unit projections can help quantify changes in future expected hurricane impacts.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Dorothea Wabbels and Gian Reto Bezzola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 927–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to its geography and climate, densely populated Switzerland is often affected by water-related hazards such as surface runoff, floods, debris flows, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches. Almost every part of Switzerland is exposed to natural hazards, and anyone can be affected.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Aurélia Bernard, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 729–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article reviews current scientific literature in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. A new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index, is defined as a function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that three very densely populated districts, located in the Ganges delta tidal floodplain, are highly vulnerable to cyclonic flooding.
Cited articles
Agència Catalana de l'Aigua: Pla especial d'emergències per inundacions (INUNCAT), available at: http://interior.gencat.cat/web/.content/home/030_arees_dactuacio/proteccio_civil/plans_de_proteccio_civil/plans_de_proteccio_civil_a_catalunya/documents/inuncat.pdf (last access: May 2018), 2014.
Armaroli, C. and Duo, E.: Validation of the Coastal Storm Risk Assessment Framework along the Emilia-Romagna coast, Coast. Eng., 134, 159–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.014, 2018.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Masina, M., and Perini, L.: Run-up computation behind emerged breakwaters for marine storm risk assessment, J. Coast. Res., 56, 1612–1616, 2009.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., Valentini, A., and Masina, M.: Critical storm thresholds for significant morphological changes and damage along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy, Geomorphology, 143–144, 34–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.09.006, 2012.
Barquet, K. and Cumiskey, L.: Using participatory Multi-Criteria Assessments for assessing disaster risk reduction measures. Coast. Eng., 134, 93–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.006, 2018.
Bertin, X., Bruneau, N., Breilh, J. F., Fortunato, A. B., and Karpytchev, M.: Importance of wave age and resonance in storm surges: The case Xynthia, Bay of Biscay, Ocean Model., 42, 16–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.11.001, 2012.
Bertoni, D., Armaroli, C., and Ciavola, P.: Fast retreat of a barrier system due to reduced sediment supply (Bellocchio , Northern Adriatic Sea , Italy), in Coastal and Maritime Mediterranean Conference, 3rd edn., Ferrara, Italy 7–10, 2015.
Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J. R., Bunney, C., Cavaleri, L., Delli Passeri, L., Gomez, M., Lefèvre, J. M., Paccagnella, T., Torrisi, L., Valentini, A., and Vocino, A.: Performance of different forecast systems in an exceptional storm in the Western Mediterranean Sea, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 34–55, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.892, 2012.
Beven II, J. L., Avila, L. A., Blake, E. S., Brown, D. P., Franklin, J. L., Knabb, R. D., Pasch, R. J., Rhome, J. R., and Stewart, S. R.: Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 1109–1173, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2074.1, 2008.
Billi, P. and Rinaldi, M.: Human impact on sediment yield and channel dynamics in the Arno River basin (central Italy), in Human Impact on Erosion and Sedimentation, Proceedings of Rabat Symposium S6, April 1997, IAHS Press, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK, 301–311, 1997.
Booij, N., Holthuijsen, L. H., and Ris, R. C.: The SWAN wave model for shallow water, Proc. 25th Int. Conf. Coastal Eng., Orlando, Florida, USA, 668–676, 1996.
Bosom, E.: Coastal vulnerability to storms at different time scales: application to the Catalan coast, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, PhD Thesis, 2014.
Bruun, P.: Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion, J. Waterw. Harb. Div., 88, 117–132, 1962.
Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour, Global Environ. Chang., 23, 1327–1338, 2013.
Carley, J. T. and Cox, R. J.: A Methodology for Utilising Time-Dependent Beach Erosion Models for Design Events, in: Coasts & Ports 2003 Australasian Conference: Proceedings of the 16th Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference, the 9th Australasian Port and Harbour Conference and the Annual New Zealand Coastal Society Conference, edited by: Kench, P. S., and Hume, T. M., 587–595, 2003.
Casas-Prat, M. and Sierra, J. P.: Trend analysis of wave direction and associated impacts on the Catalan coast, Clim. Change, 115, 667–691, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0466-9, 2012.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., and Pfeffer, W. T.: Sea-Level Rise by 2100, Science, 342, 1445, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.342.6165.1445-a, 2013.
Ciavola, P., Armaroli, C., Chiggiato, J., Valentini, A., Deserti, M., Perini, L., and Luciani, P.: Impact of storms along the coastline of Emilia-Romagna: the morphological signature on the Ravenna coastline (Italy), J. Coast. Res., 50, 540–544, 2007.
Ciavola, P., Ferreira, O., Haerens, P., Van Koningsveld, M., Armaroli, C., and Lequeux, Q.: Storm impacts along European coastlines, Part 1: The joint effort of the MICORE and ConHaz Projects, Environ. Sci. Policy, 14, 912–923, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.011, 2011a.
Ciavola, P., Ferreira, O., Haerens, P., Van Koningsveld, M., and Armaroli, C.: Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: Lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environ. Sci. Policy, 14, 924–933, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.009, 2011b.
Ciavola, P., Harley, M. D., and den Heijer, C.: The RISC-KIT storm impact database: a new tool in support of DRR, Coast. Eng., 134, 24–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.016, 2018.
Coco, G., Senechal, N., Rejas, A., Bryan, K. R., Capo, S., Parisot, J. P., and MacMahan, J. H.: Beach response to a sequence of extreme storms, Geomorphology, 204, 493–501, 2014.
Cohn, N. and Ruggiero, P.: The influence of seasonal to interannual nearshore profile variability on extreme water levels: Modeling wave runup on dissipative beaches, Coast. Eng., 115, 79–92, 2016.
Conte, D. and Lionello, P.: Characteristics of large positive and negative surges in the Mediterranean Sea and their attenuation in future climate scenarios, Glob. Planet. Change, 111, 159–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.006, 2013.
Corbella, S. and Stretch, D. D.: Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2699–2708, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2699-2012, 2012.
FLOODsite: Language of risk: Project Definitions, edited by: Samuels, P. and Gouldby, B., Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK, available at: http://floodsite.net/html/partner_area/project_docs/T32_04_01_FLOODsite_Language_of_Risk_D32_2_v5_2_P1.pdf (last access: 31 August 2017), 2009.
Guedes-Soares, C., Weisse, R., Carretero, J. C., and Alvarez, E.: A 40 years hindcast of wind, sea level and waves in European waters, in 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 2, 669–675, ASME, Oslo, Norway, 2002.
Gutierrez, B. T., Plant, N. G., and Thieler, E. R.: A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 116, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JF001891, 2011.
Hanson, H., Aarninkhof, S., Capobianco, M., Jiménez, J. A., Larson, M., Nicholls, R. J., Plant, N. G., Southgate, H. N., Steetzel, H. J., Stive, M. J. F., and de Vriend, H. J.: Modelling of coastal evolution on yearly to decadal time scales, J. Coastal Res., 19, 790–811, 2003.
Harley, M.: DuneMaker 2.0: A MATLAB tool to simulate artifitial dunes using XBeach, https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.3941.7120, 2014
Harley, M. and Ciavola, P.: Managing local coastal inundation risk using real-time forecasts and artificial dune placements, Coast. Eng., 77, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.02.006, 2013.
Harley, M., Armaroli, C., and Ciavola, P.: Evaluation of XBeach predictions for a real-time warning system in Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy, J. Coast. Res., 64, 1861–1865, 2011.
Harley, M. D., Valentini, A., Armaroli, C., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and Ciavola, P.: Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016.
ICC: Vissir: Cartographic and topographic dataset, Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya, http://www.icc.cat/vissir/, last access: May 2018.
IDROSER: Progetto di Piano per la difesa del mare e la riqualificazione ambientale del litorale della Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy, 1996.
IPCC: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 2012.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Jäger, W. S., Christie, E. K., Hanea, A. M., den Heijer, C., and Spencer, T.: A Bayesian network approach for coastal risk analysis and decision making, Coast. Eng., 134, 48–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.05.004, 2018.
Jensen, F. V.: An introduction to Bayesian networks, UCL Press, London, UK, 1996.
Jiménez, J. A., Gracia, V., Valdemoro, H. I., Mendoza, E. T., and Sánchez-Arcilla, A.: Managing erosion-induced problems in NW Mediterranean urban beaches, Ocean Coast. Manag., 54, 907–918, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.05.003, 2011.
Jiménez, J. A., Sancho-García, A., Bosom, E., Valdemoro, H. I., and Guillén, J.: Storm-induced damages along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) during the period 1958–2008, Geomorphology, 143–144, 24–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.07.034, 2012.
Jiménez, J. A., Valdemoro, H. I., Bosom, E., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., and Nicholls, R. J.: Impacts of sea-level rise-induced erosion on the Catalan coast, Reg. Environ. Chang., 17, 593–603, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1052-x, 2017.
Jiménez, J. A., Sanuy, M., Ballesteros, C., and Valdemoro, H. I.: The Tordera Delta, a hotspot to storm impacts in the coast northwards of Barcelona (NW Mediterranean), Coast. Eng., 134, 148–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.012, 2018.
Kolen, B., Slomp, R., and Jonkman, S. N.: The impacts of storm Xynthia February 27–28, 2010 in France: Lessons for flood risk management, J. Flood Risk Manag., 6, 261–278, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12011, 2013.
Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, T., Daniell, J. E., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Vannieuwenhuyse, M., Comes, T., Elmer, F., Schröter, K., Fohringer, J., Münzberg, T., Lucas, C., and Zschau, J.: Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013.
Lauritzen, S. L. and Spiegelhalter, D. J.: Local Computations with Probabilities on Graphical Structures and Their Application to Expert Systems, J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 50, 157–224, 1988.
Le Cozannet, G., Garcin, M., Yates, M., Idier, D., and Meyssignac, B.: Approaches to evaluate the recent impacts of sea-level rise on shoreline changes, Earth Sci. Rev., 138, 47–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.08.005, 2014.
Lesser, G. R., Roelvink, J. V., Van Kester, J. A. T. M., and Stelling, G. S.: Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological model, Coast. Eng., 51, 883–915, 2004.
Lionello, P., Boldrin, U., and Giorgi, F.: Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation, Clim. Dynam., 30, 657–671, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0315-0, 2008.
Martinez, G., Armaroli, C., Costas, S., Harley, M. D., and Paolisso, M.: Experiences and results from interdisciplinary collaboration: Utilizing qualitative information to formulate disaster risk reduction measures for coastal regions, Coast. Eng., 134, 62–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.09.010, 2018.
Masina, M., Lamberti, A., and Archetti, R.: Coastal flooding: A copula based approach for estimating the joint probability of water levels and waves, Coast. Eng., 97, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.12.010, 2015.
McCall, R. T., Van Thiel de Vries, J. S. M., Plant, N. G., Van Dongeren, A. R., Roelvink, J. A., Thompson, D. M., and Reniers, A. J. H. M.: Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island, Coast. Eng., 57, 668–683, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.02.006, 2010.
Mendoza, E. T. and Jiménez, J.: Clasificación de tormentas costeras para el litoral catalán (Mediterráneo NO), Ing. Hidr. en México, 2, 23–34, 2008.
Mendoza, E. T., Jimenez, J. A., and Mateo, J.: A coastal storms intensity scale for the Catalan sea (NW Mediterranean), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2453–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2453-2011, 2011.
Narayan, S., Nicholls, R. J., Clarke, D., Hanson, S., Reeve, D., Horrillo-Caraballo, J., le Cozannet, G., Hissel, F., Kowalska, B., Parda, R., Willems, P., Ohle, N., Zanuttigh, B., Losada, I., Ge, J., Trifonova, E., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Vanderlinden, J. P.: The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: Lessons from Europe, Coast. Eng., 87, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.021, 2014.
Nordstrom, K. F., Armaroli, C., Jackson, N. L., and Ciavola, P.: Opportunities and constraints for managed retreat on exposed sandy shores: Examples from Emilia-Romagna, Italy, Ocean Coast. Manag., 104, 11–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.11.010, 2015.
Oumeraci, H., Kortenhaus, A., Burzel, A., Naulin, M., Dassanayake, D. R., Jensen, J., Wahl, T., Mudersbach, C., Gönnert, G., Gerkensmeier, B., Fröhle, P., and Ujeyl, G.: XtremRisK – Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges at Open Coasts and in Estuaries: Methodology, Key Results and Lessons Learned, Coast. Eng. J., 57, 1540001, https://doi.org/10.1142/S057856341540001X, 2015.
Pearl, J.: Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference, Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, California, USA, 1988.
Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Priest, S. J., Parker, D. J., Morris, J., Tunstall, S. M., Viavattene, C., Chatterton, J., and Owen, D.: Flood and coastal erosion risk management: a manual for economic appraisal, Routledge, Taylor & Francis, London, 2013.
Penning-Rowsell, E. C., De Vries, W. S., Parker, D. J., Zanuttigh, B., Simmonds, D., Trifonova, E., Hissel, F., Monbaliu, J., Lendzion, J., Ohle, N., Diaz, P., and Bouma, T.: Innovation in coastal risk management: An exploratory analysis of risk governance issues at eight THESEUS study sites, Coast. Eng., 87, 210–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.005, 2014.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Deserti, M., Valentini, A., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: Le mareggiate e gli impatti sulla costa in Emilia-Romagna 1946–2010, ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy, 2011.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., and Luciani, P.: Costal flood risk in Emilia-Romagna (Italy): the sea storm of February 2015, in Coastal and Maritime Mediterranean Conference, 3rd edn., Ferrara, Italy, 225–230, 2015.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Salerno, G., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: Evaluation of coastal vulnerability to flooding: comparison of two different methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016.
Plant, N. G., Thieler, E. R., and Passeri, D. L.: Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network, Earth's Future, 4, 143–158, 2016.
Plomaritis, T. A., Costas, S., and Ferreira, Ó.: Use of a Bayesian Network for coastal hazards, impact and disaster risk reduction assessment at a coastal barrier (Ria Formosa, Portugal), Coast. Eng., 134, 134–147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.07.003, 2018.
Poelhekke, L., Jäger, W. S., van Dongeren, A., Plomaritis, T. A., McCall, R., and Ferreira, Ó.: Predicting coastal hazards for sandy coasts with a Bayesian Network, Coast. Eng., 118, 21–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.08.011, 2016.
Preciso, E., Salemi, E., and Billi, P.: Land use changes, torrent control works and sediment mining: Effects on channel morphology and sediment flux, case study of the Reno River (Northern Italy), Hydrol. Process., 26, 1134–1148, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8202, 2012.
Puertos del Estado (Spanish Ministry of Public Works): Oceanografic Data, available at: http://www.puertos.es/es-es/oceanografia/Paginas/portus.aspx, last access: May 2018.
Ratsimandresy, A. W., Sotillo, M. G., Carretero Albiach, J. C., Álvarez Fanjul, E., and Hajji, H.: A 44-year high-resolution ocean and atmospheric hindcast for the Mediterranean Basin developed within the HIPOCAS Project, Coast. Eng., 55, 827–842, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.02.025, 2008.
Regione Emilia-Romagna: Geoportale, available at: http://geoportale.regione.emilia-romagna.it/it, last access: May 2018.
Regione Emilia-Romagna, Servizio Geologico Sismico e dei Suoli: Il sistema mare-costa dell'Emilia-Romagna, edited by: Perini, L. and Calabrese, L., Pendragon Monographies, Bologna, 240 pp., 2010.
Roelvink, D. and Reniers, A.: Advances in Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 12, A Guide to Modeling Coastal Morphology, 2012.
Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A., van Thiel de Vries, J., McCall, R., and Lescinski, J.: Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands, Coast. Eng., 56, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.08.006, 2009.
Sanuy, M. and Jiménez, J. A.: On the variability of extreme storm-induced hazards to wave direction changes in a curvilinear sandy coast, Coast. Eng,. submitted, 2018
Sardá, R., Conde, R., Casadesús, M., Sánchez, A., and Pablo, J.: Erosión en las playas y gestión desintegrada: la problemática actual de la playa de S'Abanell, in Hacia un nuevo modelo integral de gestión de playas, Documenta Universitaria, Girona, 51–71, 2013.
Sano, M., Jiménez, J. A., Medina, R., Stanica, A., S-Arcilla, A., and Trumbic, I.: The role of coastal setbacks in the context of coastal erosion and climate change, Ocean Coast. Manage., 54, 943–950, 2011.
Scorzini, A. R. and Frank, E.: Flood damage curves: New insights from the 2010 flood in Veneto, Italy, J. Flood Risk Manag., 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12163, 2015.
Spencer, T., Brooks, S. M., Evans, B. R., Tempest, J. A., and Möller, I.: Southern North Sea storm surge event of 5 December 2013: Water levels, waves and coastal impacts, Earth-Sci. Rev., 146, 120–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.04.002, 2015.
Sutherland, J., Peet, A., and Soulsby, R.: Evaluating the performance of morphological models, Coast. Eng., 51, 917–939, 2004.
Sytnik, O. and Stecchi, F.: Disappearing coastal dunes: tourism development and future challenges, a case-study from Ravenna, Italy, J. Coast. Conserv., 19, 715–727, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-014-0353-9, 2014.
Taramelli, A., Di Matteo, L., Ciavola, P., Guadagnano, F., and Tolomei, C.: Temporal evolution of patterns and processes related to subsidence of the coastal area surrounding the Bevano River mouth (Northern Adriatic) – Italy, Ocean Coast. Manag., 108, 74–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.06.021, 2015.
Trembanis, A. C., Duo, E., Dohner, S., Grottoli, E., and Ciavola, P.: Quick Response Assessment of the Impact of an Extreme Storm Combining Aerial Drone and RTK GPS, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-337, in review, 2017.
Trigo, I. F., Bigg, G. R., and Davies, T. D.: Climatology of Cyclogenesis Mechanisms in the Mediterranean, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 549–569, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0549:COCMIT>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Valdemoro, H. I. and Jiménez, J. A.: The Influence of Shoreline Dynamics on the Use and Exploitation of Mediterranean Tourist Beaches, Coast. Manage., 34, 405–423, 2016.
Van Dongeren, A., Ciavola, P., Martinez, G., and Viavattene, C.: Introduction to RISC-KIT: Resilience-increasing strategies for coasts, Coast. Eng., 134, 2–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.007, 2018.
Van Verseveld, H. C. W., Van Dongeren, A. R., Plant, N. G., Jäger, W. S., and den Heijer, C.: Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach, Coast. Eng., 103, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.05.006, 2015.
Vojinovic, Z., Abebe, Y., Sanchez, A., Medina Pena, N., Nikolic, I., Monojlovic, N., Makropoulos, C., Pelling, M., and Abbott, M.: Holistic flood risk assessment in coastal areas – the PEARL approach, in 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, 1–8, CUNY Academic Works, New York City, USA, 2014.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen, L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3171–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5, 2016.
Zanuttigh, B., Simcic, D., Bagli, S., Bozzeda, F., Pietrantoni, L., Zagonari, F., Hoggart, S., and Nicholls, R. J.: THESEUS decision support system for coastal risk management, Coast. Eng., 87, 218–239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.11.013, 2014.
Short summary
To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. Process-based models are used to predict hazards at receptors. Impacts are calculated through vulnerability relations. Simulations are integrated with a Bayesian-based approach to link source with consequences. The tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies and as support for coastal decision making.
To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint