Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jul 2018
Research article |
| 03 Jul 2018
| 03 Jul 2018
Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches
Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de
Catalunya Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Jordi Girona 1–3, 08034, Spain
Enrico Duo
Department of Physics and Earth Science, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat
1, Ferrara, 44122, Italy
Wiebke S. Jäger
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology,
Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, the Netherlands
Paolo Ciavola
Department of Physics and Earth Science, University of Ferrara, Via Saragat
1, Ferrara, 44122, Italy
José A. Jiménez
Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de
Catalunya Barcelona Tech, Barcelona, Jordi Girona 1–3, 08034, Spain
Related authors
Marc Sanuy, Juan C. Peña, Sotiris Assimenidis, and José A. Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 283–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents the first classification of weather types associated to compound events of extreme rainfall and coastal storms. These are found to be characterized by upper-level lows and troughs in conjunction with Mediterranean cyclones, resulting in severe to extreme coastal storms combined with convective systems. We used objective classification methods coupled with a Bayesian Network, testing different variables, domains and number of weather types.
Marc Sanuy, Tomeu Rigo, José A. Jiménez, and M. Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3759–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a preliminary study to characterize events of simultaneous heavy rainfall and damaging waves at the regional scale (~600 km of coastline) in the NW Mediterranean. The atmospheric pressure conditions of such events are also classified into three main weather types, which are characterized in terms of severity of the forcing and probability of co-occurrence of simultaneous hazardous waves and rain. The study also presents some historical cases that are compared with obtained results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, Jose Jimenez, Kate Larkin, Angelique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-3, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policy Makers compiles findings from ‘Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean & Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Paola Emilia Souto-Ceccon, Juan Montes-Perez, Enrico Duo, Paolo Ciavola, Tomas Fernandez Montblanc, and Clara Armaroli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-183, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset will support the growing need for information on coastal storm impacts. To our knowledge a specific public access database is not available yet. The database was assembled after an extensive European-scale search of online and published resources and financed by the European Union within the H2020 Programme. Finally, we believe that our approach could be easily exported to all European countries and beyond.
Marc Sanuy, Juan C. Peña, Sotiris Assimenidis, and José A. Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 283–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents the first classification of weather types associated to compound events of extreme rainfall and coastal storms. These are found to be characterized by upper-level lows and troughs in conjunction with Mediterranean cyclones, resulting in severe to extreme coastal storms combined with convective systems. We used objective classification methods coupled with a Bayesian Network, testing different variables, domains and number of weather types.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System ECFAS project, presents an approach used to estimate coastal flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
José A. Jiménez, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hirk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, Natalia Vazquez Riveiros, and Gundula Winter
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-34, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
Short summary
Short summary
The European Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion, emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Marc Sanuy, Tomeu Rigo, José A. Jiménez, and M. Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3759–3781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a preliminary study to characterize events of simultaneous heavy rainfall and damaging waves at the regional scale (~600 km of coastline) in the NW Mediterranean. The atmospheric pressure conditions of such events are also classified into three main weather types, which are characterized in terms of severity of the forcing and probability of co-occurrence of simultaneous hazardous waves and rain. The study also presents some historical cases that are compared with obtained results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-219-2021, 2021
Enrico Duo, Arthur Chris Trembanis, Stephanie Dohner, Edoardo Grottoli, and Paolo Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study illustrates the implementation of a local-scale post-event survey that combined GPS and UAV-based techniques with qualitative information collected through interviews with local stakeholders. The comprehensive approach employed in this case study was conducted on the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event that impacted the shoreline on the 5-6 February 2015, called the St Agatha storm.
J. M. Brown, P. Ciavola, G. Masselink, R. McCall, and A. J. Plater
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 463–467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016, 2016
M. D. Harley, A. Valentini, C. Armaroli, L. Perini, L. Calabrese, and P. Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
L. Perini, L. Calabrese, G. Salerno, P. Ciavola, and C. Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper compares two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations, whose core is the Cost Distance tool of ArcGIS®. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods show a positive agreement.
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
A Guide of Indicators Creation for Critical Infrastructures Resilience. Based on a Multi-criteria Framework Focusing on Optimisation Actions for Road Transport System
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Dynamic Response of Pile-Slab Retaining Wall Structure under Rockfall Impact
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances will increase in the future endangering our forests and their provision of wood, protection against natural hazards and carbon sequestration. Considering the hazard to forests by wind or fire damage together with vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize high-risk forest stands. In this study we propose a new methodological approach helping with decision-making process for climate-smart forest management.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Operationalision of “resilience” will be a major milestone contributing to hazard management for Critical infrastructures (CIs). To integrate resilience assessment into operational management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables users to create specific indicators to suit their particular situation. The assessment results can assist CIs managers in their decision-making as it is based on a multi-criteria framework that considers the various interests of stakeholders.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Maria-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes is shared by four countries and groups 59 volcanoes. We identified the ones with the most intense and frequent eruptions (e.g., El Misti and Ubinas), the cities with the highest density of elements at risk (e.g., Arequipa and Mequegua), and the volcanoes with the highest potential impact (e.g., Cerro Blanco and Yucamane). Our study contributes into the prioritization of risk reduction resources, which is crucial for surrounding communities.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript addresses to numerically analyze the dynamic responses and damage mechanism of the pile-slab retaining wall under the rockfall impacts by employing the refined finite element model. The results provide insights into structure dynamic response analysis of the PSRW and serve as a benchmark for further research.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, and Zacharias Fasoulakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses which can impact population and assets of different types. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess the feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed to facilitate a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Cited articles
Agència Catalana de l'Aigua: Pla especial d'emergències per inundacions (INUNCAT), available at: http://interior.gencat.cat/web/.content/home/030_arees_dactuacio/proteccio_civil/plans_de_proteccio_civil/plans_de_proteccio_civil_a_catalunya/documents/inuncat.pdf (last access: May 2018), 2014.
Armaroli, C. and Duo, E.: Validation of the Coastal Storm Risk Assessment Framework along the Emilia-Romagna coast, Coast. Eng., 134, 159–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.014, 2018.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Masina, M., and Perini, L.: Run-up computation behind emerged breakwaters for marine storm risk assessment, J. Coast. Res., 56, 1612–1616, 2009.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., Valentini, A., and Masina, M.: Critical storm thresholds for significant morphological changes and damage along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy, Geomorphology, 143–144, 34–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.09.006, 2012.
Barquet, K. and Cumiskey, L.: Using participatory Multi-Criteria Assessments for assessing disaster risk reduction measures. Coast. Eng., 134, 93–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.006, 2018.
Bertin, X., Bruneau, N., Breilh, J. F., Fortunato, A. B., and Karpytchev, M.: Importance of wave age and resonance in storm surges: The case Xynthia, Bay of Biscay, Ocean Model., 42, 16–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.11.001, 2012.
Bertoni, D., Armaroli, C., and Ciavola, P.: Fast retreat of a barrier system due to reduced sediment supply (Bellocchio , Northern Adriatic Sea , Italy), in Coastal and Maritime Mediterranean Conference, 3rd edn., Ferrara, Italy 7–10, 2015.
Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J. R., Bunney, C., Cavaleri, L., Delli Passeri, L., Gomez, M., Lefèvre, J. M., Paccagnella, T., Torrisi, L., Valentini, A., and Vocino, A.: Performance of different forecast systems in an exceptional storm in the Western Mediterranean Sea, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 34–55, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.892, 2012.
Beven II, J. L., Avila, L. A., Blake, E. S., Brown, D. P., Franklin, J. L., Knabb, R. D., Pasch, R. J., Rhome, J. R., and Stewart, S. R.: Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 1109–1173, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2074.1, 2008.
Billi, P. and Rinaldi, M.: Human impact on sediment yield and channel dynamics in the Arno River basin (central Italy), in Human Impact on Erosion and Sedimentation, Proceedings of Rabat Symposium S6, April 1997, IAHS Press, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK, 301–311, 1997.
Booij, N., Holthuijsen, L. H., and Ris, R. C.: The SWAN wave model for shallow water, Proc. 25th Int. Conf. Coastal Eng., Orlando, Florida, USA, 668–676, 1996.
Bosom, E.: Coastal vulnerability to storms at different time scales: application to the Catalan coast, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, PhD Thesis, 2014.
Bruun, P.: Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion, J. Waterw. Harb. Div., 88, 117–132, 1962.
Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour, Global Environ. Chang., 23, 1327–1338, 2013.
Carley, J. T. and Cox, R. J.: A Methodology for Utilising Time-Dependent Beach Erosion Models for Design Events, in: Coasts & Ports 2003 Australasian Conference: Proceedings of the 16th Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference, the 9th Australasian Port and Harbour Conference and the Annual New Zealand Coastal Society Conference, edited by: Kench, P. S., and Hume, T. M., 587–595, 2003.
Casas-Prat, M. and Sierra, J. P.: Trend analysis of wave direction and associated impacts on the Catalan coast, Clim. Change, 115, 667–691, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0466-9, 2012.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., and Pfeffer, W. T.: Sea-Level Rise by 2100, Science, 342, 1445, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.342.6165.1445-a, 2013.
Ciavola, P., Armaroli, C., Chiggiato, J., Valentini, A., Deserti, M., Perini, L., and Luciani, P.: Impact of storms along the coastline of Emilia-Romagna: the morphological signature on the Ravenna coastline (Italy), J. Coast. Res., 50, 540–544, 2007.
Ciavola, P., Ferreira, O., Haerens, P., Van Koningsveld, M., Armaroli, C., and Lequeux, Q.: Storm impacts along European coastlines, Part 1: The joint effort of the MICORE and ConHaz Projects, Environ. Sci. Policy, 14, 912–923, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.011, 2011a.
Ciavola, P., Ferreira, O., Haerens, P., Van Koningsveld, M., and Armaroli, C.: Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: Lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environ. Sci. Policy, 14, 924–933, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.009, 2011b.
Ciavola, P., Harley, M. D., and den Heijer, C.: The RISC-KIT storm impact database: a new tool in support of DRR, Coast. Eng., 134, 24–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.016, 2018.
Coco, G., Senechal, N., Rejas, A., Bryan, K. R., Capo, S., Parisot, J. P., and MacMahan, J. H.: Beach response to a sequence of extreme storms, Geomorphology, 204, 493–501, 2014.
Cohn, N. and Ruggiero, P.: The influence of seasonal to interannual nearshore profile variability on extreme water levels: Modeling wave runup on dissipative beaches, Coast. Eng., 115, 79–92, 2016.
Conte, D. and Lionello, P.: Characteristics of large positive and negative surges in the Mediterranean Sea and their attenuation in future climate scenarios, Glob. Planet. Change, 111, 159–173, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.006, 2013.
Corbella, S. and Stretch, D. D.: Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2699–2708, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2699-2012, 2012.
FLOODsite: Language of risk: Project Definitions, edited by: Samuels, P. and Gouldby, B., Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK, available at: http://floodsite.net/html/partner_area/project_docs/T32_04_01_FLOODsite_Language_of_Risk_D32_2_v5_2_P1.pdf (last access: 31 August 2017), 2009.
Guedes-Soares, C., Weisse, R., Carretero, J. C., and Alvarez, E.: A 40 years hindcast of wind, sea level and waves in European waters, in 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 2, 669–675, ASME, Oslo, Norway, 2002.
Gutierrez, B. T., Plant, N. G., and Thieler, E. R.: A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 116, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JF001891, 2011.
Hanson, H., Aarninkhof, S., Capobianco, M., Jiménez, J. A., Larson, M., Nicholls, R. J., Plant, N. G., Southgate, H. N., Steetzel, H. J., Stive, M. J. F., and de Vriend, H. J.: Modelling of coastal evolution on yearly to decadal time scales, J. Coastal Res., 19, 790–811, 2003.
Harley, M.: DuneMaker 2.0: A MATLAB tool to simulate artifitial dunes using XBeach, https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.3941.7120, 2014
Harley, M. and Ciavola, P.: Managing local coastal inundation risk using real-time forecasts and artificial dune placements, Coast. Eng., 77, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.02.006, 2013.
Harley, M., Armaroli, C., and Ciavola, P.: Evaluation of XBeach predictions for a real-time warning system in Emilia-Romagna, Northern Italy, J. Coast. Res., 64, 1861–1865, 2011.
Harley, M. D., Valentini, A., Armaroli, C., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and Ciavola, P.: Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016.
ICC: Vissir: Cartographic and topographic dataset, Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya, http://www.icc.cat/vissir/, last access: May 2018.
IDROSER: Progetto di Piano per la difesa del mare e la riqualificazione ambientale del litorale della Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy, 1996.
IPCC: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 2012.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Jäger, W. S., Christie, E. K., Hanea, A. M., den Heijer, C., and Spencer, T.: A Bayesian network approach for coastal risk analysis and decision making, Coast. Eng., 134, 48–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.05.004, 2018.
Jensen, F. V.: An introduction to Bayesian networks, UCL Press, London, UK, 1996.
Jiménez, J. A., Gracia, V., Valdemoro, H. I., Mendoza, E. T., and Sánchez-Arcilla, A.: Managing erosion-induced problems in NW Mediterranean urban beaches, Ocean Coast. Manag., 54, 907–918, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.05.003, 2011.
Jiménez, J. A., Sancho-García, A., Bosom, E., Valdemoro, H. I., and Guillén, J.: Storm-induced damages along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) during the period 1958–2008, Geomorphology, 143–144, 24–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.07.034, 2012.
Jiménez, J. A., Valdemoro, H. I., Bosom, E., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., and Nicholls, R. J.: Impacts of sea-level rise-induced erosion on the Catalan coast, Reg. Environ. Chang., 17, 593–603, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1052-x, 2017.
Jiménez, J. A., Sanuy, M., Ballesteros, C., and Valdemoro, H. I.: The Tordera Delta, a hotspot to storm impacts in the coast northwards of Barcelona (NW Mediterranean), Coast. Eng., 134, 148–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.012, 2018.
Kolen, B., Slomp, R., and Jonkman, S. N.: The impacts of storm Xynthia February 27–28, 2010 in France: Lessons for flood risk management, J. Flood Risk Manag., 6, 261–278, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12011, 2013.
Kunz, M., Mühr, B., Kunz-Plapp, T., Daniell, J. E., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Vannieuwenhuyse, M., Comes, T., Elmer, F., Schröter, K., Fohringer, J., Münzberg, T., Lucas, C., and Zschau, J.: Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013.
Lauritzen, S. L. and Spiegelhalter, D. J.: Local Computations with Probabilities on Graphical Structures and Their Application to Expert Systems, J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 50, 157–224, 1988.
Le Cozannet, G., Garcin, M., Yates, M., Idier, D., and Meyssignac, B.: Approaches to evaluate the recent impacts of sea-level rise on shoreline changes, Earth Sci. Rev., 138, 47–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.08.005, 2014.
Lesser, G. R., Roelvink, J. V., Van Kester, J. A. T. M., and Stelling, G. S.: Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological model, Coast. Eng., 51, 883–915, 2004.
Lionello, P., Boldrin, U., and Giorgi, F.: Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation, Clim. Dynam., 30, 657–671, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0315-0, 2008.
Martinez, G., Armaroli, C., Costas, S., Harley, M. D., and Paolisso, M.: Experiences and results from interdisciplinary collaboration: Utilizing qualitative information to formulate disaster risk reduction measures for coastal regions, Coast. Eng., 134, 62–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.09.010, 2018.
Masina, M., Lamberti, A., and Archetti, R.: Coastal flooding: A copula based approach for estimating the joint probability of water levels and waves, Coast. Eng., 97, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.12.010, 2015.
McCall, R. T., Van Thiel de Vries, J. S. M., Plant, N. G., Van Dongeren, A. R., Roelvink, J. A., Thompson, D. M., and Reniers, A. J. H. M.: Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island, Coast. Eng., 57, 668–683, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.02.006, 2010.
Mendoza, E. T. and Jiménez, J.: Clasificación de tormentas costeras para el litoral catalán (Mediterráneo NO), Ing. Hidr. en México, 2, 23–34, 2008.
Mendoza, E. T., Jimenez, J. A., and Mateo, J.: A coastal storms intensity scale for the Catalan sea (NW Mediterranean), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2453–2462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2453-2011, 2011.
Narayan, S., Nicholls, R. J., Clarke, D., Hanson, S., Reeve, D., Horrillo-Caraballo, J., le Cozannet, G., Hissel, F., Kowalska, B., Parda, R., Willems, P., Ohle, N., Zanuttigh, B., Losada, I., Ge, J., Trifonova, E., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Vanderlinden, J. P.: The SPR systems model as a conceptual foundation for rapid integrated risk appraisals: Lessons from Europe, Coast. Eng., 87, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.021, 2014.
Nordstrom, K. F., Armaroli, C., Jackson, N. L., and Ciavola, P.: Opportunities and constraints for managed retreat on exposed sandy shores: Examples from Emilia-Romagna, Italy, Ocean Coast. Manag., 104, 11–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.11.010, 2015.
Oumeraci, H., Kortenhaus, A., Burzel, A., Naulin, M., Dassanayake, D. R., Jensen, J., Wahl, T., Mudersbach, C., Gönnert, G., Gerkensmeier, B., Fröhle, P., and Ujeyl, G.: XtremRisK – Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges at Open Coasts and in Estuaries: Methodology, Key Results and Lessons Learned, Coast. Eng. J., 57, 1540001, https://doi.org/10.1142/S057856341540001X, 2015.
Pearl, J.: Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference, Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, California, USA, 1988.
Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Priest, S. J., Parker, D. J., Morris, J., Tunstall, S. M., Viavattene, C., Chatterton, J., and Owen, D.: Flood and coastal erosion risk management: a manual for economic appraisal, Routledge, Taylor & Francis, London, 2013.
Penning-Rowsell, E. C., De Vries, W. S., Parker, D. J., Zanuttigh, B., Simmonds, D., Trifonova, E., Hissel, F., Monbaliu, J., Lendzion, J., Ohle, N., Diaz, P., and Bouma, T.: Innovation in coastal risk management: An exploratory analysis of risk governance issues at eight THESEUS study sites, Coast. Eng., 87, 210–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.005, 2014.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Deserti, M., Valentini, A., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: Le mareggiate e gli impatti sulla costa in Emilia-Romagna 1946–2010, ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy, 2011.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., and Luciani, P.: Costal flood risk in Emilia-Romagna (Italy): the sea storm of February 2015, in Coastal and Maritime Mediterranean Conference, 3rd edn., Ferrara, Italy, 225–230, 2015.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Salerno, G., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: Evaluation of coastal vulnerability to flooding: comparison of two different methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016.
Plant, N. G., Thieler, E. R., and Passeri, D. L.: Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network, Earth's Future, 4, 143–158, 2016.
Plomaritis, T. A., Costas, S., and Ferreira, Ó.: Use of a Bayesian Network for coastal hazards, impact and disaster risk reduction assessment at a coastal barrier (Ria Formosa, Portugal), Coast. Eng., 134, 134–147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.07.003, 2018.
Poelhekke, L., Jäger, W. S., van Dongeren, A., Plomaritis, T. A., McCall, R., and Ferreira, Ó.: Predicting coastal hazards for sandy coasts with a Bayesian Network, Coast. Eng., 118, 21–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.08.011, 2016.
Preciso, E., Salemi, E., and Billi, P.: Land use changes, torrent control works and sediment mining: Effects on channel morphology and sediment flux, case study of the Reno River (Northern Italy), Hydrol. Process., 26, 1134–1148, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8202, 2012.
Puertos del Estado (Spanish Ministry of Public Works): Oceanografic Data, available at: http://www.puertos.es/es-es/oceanografia/Paginas/portus.aspx, last access: May 2018.
Ratsimandresy, A. W., Sotillo, M. G., Carretero Albiach, J. C., Álvarez Fanjul, E., and Hajji, H.: A 44-year high-resolution ocean and atmospheric hindcast for the Mediterranean Basin developed within the HIPOCAS Project, Coast. Eng., 55, 827–842, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.02.025, 2008.
Regione Emilia-Romagna: Geoportale, available at: http://geoportale.regione.emilia-romagna.it/it, last access: May 2018.
Regione Emilia-Romagna, Servizio Geologico Sismico e dei Suoli: Il sistema mare-costa dell'Emilia-Romagna, edited by: Perini, L. and Calabrese, L., Pendragon Monographies, Bologna, 240 pp., 2010.
Roelvink, D. and Reniers, A.: Advances in Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 12, A Guide to Modeling Coastal Morphology, 2012.
Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A., van Thiel de Vries, J., McCall, R., and Lescinski, J.: Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands, Coast. Eng., 56, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.08.006, 2009.
Sanuy, M. and Jiménez, J. A.: On the variability of extreme storm-induced hazards to wave direction changes in a curvilinear sandy coast, Coast. Eng,. submitted, 2018
Sardá, R., Conde, R., Casadesús, M., Sánchez, A., and Pablo, J.: Erosión en las playas y gestión desintegrada: la problemática actual de la playa de S'Abanell, in Hacia un nuevo modelo integral de gestión de playas, Documenta Universitaria, Girona, 51–71, 2013.
Sano, M., Jiménez, J. A., Medina, R., Stanica, A., S-Arcilla, A., and Trumbic, I.: The role of coastal setbacks in the context of coastal erosion and climate change, Ocean Coast. Manage., 54, 943–950, 2011.
Scorzini, A. R. and Frank, E.: Flood damage curves: New insights from the 2010 flood in Veneto, Italy, J. Flood Risk Manag., 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12163, 2015.
Spencer, T., Brooks, S. M., Evans, B. R., Tempest, J. A., and Möller, I.: Southern North Sea storm surge event of 5 December 2013: Water levels, waves and coastal impacts, Earth-Sci. Rev., 146, 120–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.04.002, 2015.
Sutherland, J., Peet, A., and Soulsby, R.: Evaluating the performance of morphological models, Coast. Eng., 51, 917–939, 2004.
Sytnik, O. and Stecchi, F.: Disappearing coastal dunes: tourism development and future challenges, a case-study from Ravenna, Italy, J. Coast. Conserv., 19, 715–727, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-014-0353-9, 2014.
Taramelli, A., Di Matteo, L., Ciavola, P., Guadagnano, F., and Tolomei, C.: Temporal evolution of patterns and processes related to subsidence of the coastal area surrounding the Bevano River mouth (Northern Adriatic) – Italy, Ocean Coast. Manag., 108, 74–88, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.06.021, 2015.
Trembanis, A. C., Duo, E., Dohner, S., Grottoli, E., and Ciavola, P.: Quick Response Assessment of the Impact of an Extreme Storm Combining Aerial Drone and RTK GPS, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-337, in review, 2017.
Trigo, I. F., Bigg, G. R., and Davies, T. D.: Climatology of Cyclogenesis Mechanisms in the Mediterranean, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 549–569, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0549:COCMIT>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Valdemoro, H. I. and Jiménez, J. A.: The Influence of Shoreline Dynamics on the Use and Exploitation of Mediterranean Tourist Beaches, Coast. Manage., 34, 405–423, 2016.
Van Dongeren, A., Ciavola, P., Martinez, G., and Viavattene, C.: Introduction to RISC-KIT: Resilience-increasing strategies for coasts, Coast. Eng., 134, 2–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.007, 2018.
Van Verseveld, H. C. W., Van Dongeren, A. R., Plant, N. G., Jäger, W. S., and den Heijer, C.: Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach, Coast. Eng., 103, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.05.006, 2015.
Vojinovic, Z., Abebe, Y., Sanchez, A., Medina Pena, N., Nikolic, I., Monojlovic, N., Makropoulos, C., Pelling, M., and Abbott, M.: Holistic flood risk assessment in coastal areas – the PEARL approach, in 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, 1–8, CUNY Academic Works, New York City, USA, 2014.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen, L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3171–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5, 2016.
Zanuttigh, B., Simcic, D., Bagli, S., Bozzeda, F., Pietrantoni, L., Zagonari, F., Hoggart, S., and Nicholls, R. J.: THESEUS decision support system for coastal risk management, Coast. Eng., 87, 218–239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.11.013, 2014.
Short summary
To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. Process-based models are used to predict hazards at receptors. Impacts are calculated through vulnerability relations. Simulations are integrated with a Bayesian-based approach to link source with consequences. The tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies and as support for coastal decision making.
To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint