Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-765-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-765-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 May 2017
Research article |
| 29 May 2017
Costs of sea dikes – regressions and uncertainty estimates
Stephan Lenk
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK, Member of Leibniz Association, P.O. Box
601203,
14412 Potsdam, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK, Member of Leibniz Association, P.O. Box
601203,
14412 Potsdam, Germany
Oliver Heidrich
School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences & Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
Richard J. Dawson
School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences & Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
Jürgen P. Kropp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK, Member of Leibniz Association, P.O. Box
601203,
14412 Potsdam, Germany
University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Fergus McClean, Richard Dawson, and Chris Kilsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 331–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-331-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-331-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalysis datasets are increasingly used to drive flood models, especially for continental and global analysis. We investigate the impact of using four reanalysis products on simulations of past flood events. All reanalysis products underestimated the number of buildings inundated, compared to a benchmark national dataset. These findings show that while global reanalyses provide a useful resource for flood modelling where no other data are available, they may underestimate impact in some cases.
Wei Weng, Matthias K. B. Luedeke, Delphine C. Zemp, Tobia Lakes, and Juergen P. Kropp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 911–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-911-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-911-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a detailed spatial analysis of hydrological impacts of land use change in Amazonia, focusing on the aspect of
aerial rivers. Our approach of observation-based atmospheric moisture tracking allows us to recognize potential teleconnection between source and sink regions of atmospheric moisture. Relying on a quantitative assessment, we identified regions where water availability is most sensitive to land use change and regions where land use change is critical for a given sink region.
Boris F. Prahl, Diego Rybski, Markus Boettle, and Jürgen P. Kropp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1189–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Damage functions are an essential tool for vulnerability assessment and the quantification of disaster loss. They are often tailored to specific hazards and regions, which complicates knowledge transfer between different hazards and places. In our work, we unify approaches for climate-related hazards, e.g. for storms and coastal floods. A unified damage function is embedded in an uncertainty framework, where we identify the dominating sources of uncertainty on local and regional scales.
Claire L. Walsh, Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Aidan Burton, Richard J. Dawson, Vassilis Glenis, Lucy J. Manning, Golnaz Jahanshahi, and Chris G. Kilsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1869–1884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1869-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1869-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Changing climate and growing populations pose significant challenges for managing water resources. However, a better understanding of these would contribute to improved decisions about how adequate water supplies are maintained. In this paper, we show that a portfolio of both demand management and new supply options are required for the Thames Basin, which provides the majority of water for London, to help alleviate climate and population challenges in the future.
M. Boettle, D. Rybski, and J. P. Kropp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 559–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-559-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We provide simple functional expressions to characterise the development of coastal flood damage for rising mean sea levels as well as implemented flood protection levels. Furthermore, we are able to quantify the aleatory uncertainty of our estimates. All results are mathematically proven and their usability confirmed by employing two case study regions. Thus, we gain fundamental insights into the interplay of coastal flood damage, the mean sea level, and flood defence.
B. F. Prahl, D. Rybski, O. Burghoff, and J. P. Kropp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. Their costs can be assessed via damage functions relating storm intensity to loss. However, the heavy-tailed loss distribution and the high uncertainty pose difficulties for their application. We address these difficulties by comparing four empirical damage functions and providing model recommendations. In a broader context, we discuss the shape of the damage functions in the light of theoretical considerations.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: A watershed level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Disaster Management Following the Great Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
Brief Communication: Bridging the data gap – enhancing the representation of global coastal flood protection
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
An evaluation on the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Modelling Flood Losses to Microbusinesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? – case study Berlin
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Sensitive infrastructures and people with disabilities – Key issues when strengthening resilience in reconstruction
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal, and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners' needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. We provide examples to demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 Western European flood. By analysing flood-related topics on social media, we found that conversations varied depending on the location and impact of the flood, with in-disaster concerns emerging in severely affected upstream areas and post-disaster discussions in less affected regions. This shows the potential of social media for better disaster coordination along border crossing rivers.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Bektaş Sari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the earthquake, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50,000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to contrast subsidence and its damages. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques, to which site-specific assessment should always follow.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection is limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTPROS-EU, which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates twelve drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI Framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and provides useful insights to develop next generation of drought guidelines.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct impact of extremes on crop yields and farm revenues. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of €781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, and Angela Wendnagel-Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend stronger on inner-variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on – therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g. to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Cited articles
Aerts, J. C. J. H., Botzen, W. J. W., Moel, H. d., and Bowman, M.: Cost estimates for flood resilience and protection strategies in New York City, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1294, 1–104, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.12200, 2013.
Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., AC–19, 716–723, https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705, 1974.
Arcadis and Fugro: Kostenfuncties Dijkringgebieden 7, 14, en 29, Report, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Amersfoort, Netherlands, in Dutch, 2006.
BCIS: Elemental Standard Form of Cost Analysis, Royal Instituttion of Chartered Surveyors, London, 4th Edn., available at: http://www.rics.org/Global/BCIS_Elemental_Standard_Form_of_Cost_Analysis_4th__NRM__Edition_2012.pdf (last access: 7 May 2017), 2012.
Boettle, M., Rybski, D., and Kropp, J. P.: How changing sea level extremes and protection measures alter coastal flood damages, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1199–1210, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20108, 2013a.
Boettle, M., Rybski, D., and Kropp, J. P.: Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: Calculating Costs and Benefits for the Case Study Kalundborg, Denmark, in: Climate Change Adaptation in Practice, edited by: Schmidt-Thomé, P. and Klein, J., Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK, chap. 3, 25–34, 2013b.
Boettle, M., Costa, L., Kriewald, S., Kropp, J. P., Prahl, B. F., and Rybski, D.: Development of a library of impact functions and general uncertainty measures (Deliverable 1.2), Tech. rep., RAMSES project: Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities, available at: http://www.ramses-cities.eu/fileadmin/uploads/Deliverables_Uploaded/Development_of_a_library_of_impact_functions_and_general_uncertainty_measures_D1.2.pdf (last access: 7 May 2017), 2014.
Boettle, M., Rybski, D., and Kropp, J. P.: Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence – a point process perspective on coastal flood damage, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 559–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-559-2016, 2016.
Prahl, B. F., Boettle, M., Costa, L., Kropp, J. P., and Rybski, D.: Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods in the largest European cities, in preparation, 2017.
Bouwer, L. M.: Projections of Future Extreme Weather Losses Under Changes in Climate and Exposure, Risk. Anal., 33, 915–930, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01880.x, 2013.
Chou, J.-S., Yang, I.-T., and Chong, W. K.: Probabilistic simulation for developing likelihood distribution of engineering project cost, Automat. Constr., 18, 570–577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2008.12.001, 2009.
Dawson, R. and Hall, J.: Adaptive importance sampling for risk analysis of complex infrastructure systems, P. Roy. Soc. A – Math. Phy., 462, 3343–3362, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2006.1720, 2006.
Dawson, R. J., Dickson, M. E., Nicholls, R. J., Hall, J. W., Walkden, M. J. A., Stansby, P. K., Mokrech, M., Richards, J., Zhou, J., Milligan, J., Jordan, A., Pearson, S., Rees, J., Bates, P. D., Koukoulas, S., and Watkinson, A. R.: Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change, Climatic Change, 95, 249–288, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9532-8, 2009.
Dawson, R. J., Ball, T., Werritty, J., Werritty, A., Hall, J. W., and Roche, N.: Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change, Global Environ. Chang., 21, 628–646, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.013, 2011.
de Grave, P. and Baase, G.: Kosten van maatregelen, technical report, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands, 2011.
Delcan Corporation: Cost of Adaptation – Sea Dikes & Alternative Strategies, FINAL REPORT EB3762, British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations, Vancouver, available at: http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wsd/public_safety/flood/pdfs_word/cost_of_adaptation-final_report_oct2012.pdf (last access: 7 May 2017), 2012.
Diaz, D. B.: Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM), Climatic Change, 137, 143–156, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1675-4, 2016.
Dijkman, J.: A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization, Report WL-Z4307 prepared for the United States Army European Research Office, Netherlands Water Partnership, Delft, Netherlands, 2007.
Dronkers, J., Gilbert, J. T. E., Butler, L., Carey, J. J., Campbell, J., James, E., McKenzie, C., Misdorp, R., Quin, N. Ries, K. L., Schroder, P. C., Spradley, J. R., Titus, J. G., Vallianos, L., and von Dadelszen, J.: Strategies for Adaption to Sea Level Rise, Report, IPCC Coastal Zone Management Subgroup: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, available at: http://papers.risingsea.net/IPCC-1990-Strategies-for-Adaption-to-Sea-Level-Rise.html (last access: 7 May 2017), 1990.
Eijgenraam, C., Kind, J., Bak, C., Brekelmans, R., den Hertog, D., Duits, M., Roos, K., Vermeer, P., and Kuijken, W.: Economically Efficient Standards to Protect the Netherlands Against Flooding, Interfaces, 44, 7–21, https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.2013.0721, 2014.
Eijgenraam, C. J. J.: Optimal safety standards for dike-ring areas, Discussion paper, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Den Haag, Netherlands, 2006.
Eijgenraam, C. J. J. and Zwaneveld, P. J.: Second Opinion Kosten-batenanalyse Waterveiligheid 21e eeuw, CPB notitie, Centraal Planbureau, Den Haag, Netherlands, 2011.
Fankhauser, S.: Protection versus retreat: the economic costs of sea-level rise, Environ. Plann. A, 27, 299–319, https://doi.org/10.1068/a270299, 1995.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator, available at: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPDEF, last access: 1 March 2016.
Flyvbjerg, B.: Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures, Environ. Plann. B, 34, 578–597, https://doi.org/10.1068/b32111, 2007a.
Flyvbjerg, B.: Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure, Transport. Plan. Techn., 30, 9–30, https://doi.org/10.1080/03081060701207938, 2007b.
Flyvbjerg, B. and Stewart, A.: Olympic Proportions: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Olympics 1960–2012, Working paper, Saïd Business School – University of Oxford, Oxford, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2238053, 2012.
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J.: Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change, 3, 802–806, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1979, 2013.
Heidrich, O., Dawson, R. J., Reckien, D., and Walsh, C. L.: Assessment of the climate preparedness of 30 urban areas in the UK, Climatic Change, 120, 771–784, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0846-9, 2013.
Heidrich, O., Reckien, D., Olazabal, M., Foley, A., Salvia, M., Gregorio Hurtado, S. d., Orru, H., Flacke, J., Geneletti, D., Pietrapertosa, F., Hamann, J. J.-P., Tiwary, A., Feliu, E., and Dawson, R. J.: National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies, J. Environ. Manage., 168, 36–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.11.043, 2016.
Hillen, M. M.: Safety Standards Project, Risk Analysis for New Sea Dike Design Guidelines in Vietnam, technical report, Delft University of Technology, Hanoi Water Ressources University, 2008.
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292–3297, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111, 2014.
Hoozemans, F. M. J., Marchand, M., and Pennekamp, H. A.: A Global Vulnerability Analysis: Vulnerability Assessment for Population, Coastal Wetlands and Rice Production on a Global Scale, Delft Hydraulics, Delft, the Netherlands, 1993.
Hudson, T., Keating, K., and Pettit, A.: Cost estimation for coastal protection – summary of evidence, Report SC080039/R7, Environment Agency, Bristol, available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/411178/Cost_estimation_for_coastal_protection.pdf (last access: 7 May 2017), 2015.
Jongmann, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Mechler, R., Botzen, W. J. W., Bouwer, L. M., Pflug, G., Rojas, R., and Ward, P. J.: Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods, Nature Climate Change, 4, 264–268, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2124, 2014.
Jonkman, S. N., Brinkhuis-Jak, M., and Kok, M.: Cost benefit analysis and flood damage mitigation in the Netherlands, Heron, 49, 95–111, 2004.
Jonkman, S. N., Maskaant, B., Boyd, E., and Levitan, M. L.: Loss of life caused by the flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina: analysis of the relationship between flood characteristics and mortality, Risk. Anal., 5, 676–698, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01190.x, 2009.
Jonkman, S. N., Hillen, M. M., Nicholls, R. J., Kanning, W., and van Ledden, M.: Costs of Adapting Coastal Defences to Sea-Level Rise– New Estimates and Their Implications, J. Coastal Res., 29, 1212–1226, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00230.1, 2013.
Keating, K., Pettit, A., and Wood, A.: Cost estimation for fluvial defences – summary of evidence, Research Contractor Report SC080039/R2, Environment Agency, Bristol, UK, available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/411171/Cost_estimation_for_fluvial_defences.pdf (last access: 7 May 2017), jBA Consulting, 2015.
Kind, J. M.: Economically efficient flood protection standards for the Netherlands, J. Flood Risk Management, 7, 103–117, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12026, 2014.
Klijn, F., Knoop, J. M., Ligtvoet, W., and Mens, M. J. P.: In search of robust flood risk management alternatives for the Netherlands, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1469–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1469-2012, 2012.
Kok, M., Jonkman, S., Kanning, W., Stijnen, J., and Rijcken, T.: Toekomst voor het Nederlandse polderconcept, Annex to “Working Together with Water”, Delta Comittee, Den Haag, Netherlands, in Dutch, 2008.
Kreibich, H., van den Berg, J. C. J. M., Bouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., Ciavola, P., Green, C., Hallegatte, S., Logar, I., Meyer, V., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A. H.: Costing Natural Hazards, Nature Climate Change, 4, 303–306, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2182, 2014.
Linham, M. M., Green, C. H., and Nicholls, R. J.: Costs of adaptation to the effects of climate change in the world's large port cities, Report AV/WS2/D1/R14, AVOID: Avoiding dangerous climate change, available at: http://www.avoid.uk.net/2010/07/avoid-1-costs-of-adaptation-to-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-worlds-large-port-cities/ (last access: 7 May 2017), work stream 2, 2010.
Love, P. E. D., Wang, X., Sing, C.-P., and Tiong, R. L. K.: Determining the Probability of Project Cost Overruns, J. Constr. Eng. Manage., 139, 321–330, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000575, 2013.
MacDonald, M.: CESMM4 Carbon & Price Book 2013, ICE Publishing, London, https://doi.org/10.1680/ccpb2013.58125, 2013.
Mai, C. V., van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., Vrijling, J. K., and Mai, T. C.: Risk analysis of coastal flood defences: a Vietnam case, in: Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence (Toronto, Canada, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction), 931–938, 2008.
Marquardt, D. W.: An Algorithm for Least-Squares Estimations of Nonlinear Parameters, J. Soc. Ind. Appl. Math., 11, 431–441, 1963.
Menéndez, M. and Woodworth, P. L.: Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge data set, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C10011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005997, 2010.
Pettit, A. and Robinson, P.: Supporting Spreadsheet for the Long Term Costing Project, in: Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme, JBA Consulting and Environment Agency (EA), Environment Agency (EA), Bristol, UK, 2012.
Prahl, B. F., Rybski, D., Kropp, J. P., Burghoff, O., and Held, H.: Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL050961, 2012.
Prahl, B. F., Rybski, D., Boettle, M., and Kropp, J. P.: Damage functions for climate-related hazards: unification and uncertainty analysis, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1189–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016, 2016.
Public Works and Government Services Canada: Cost estimation definitions, available at: http://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/biens-property/sngp-npms/bi-rp/conn-know/couts-cost/definition-eng.html (last access: 18 January 2016), last modified 2 March 2015.
Reckien, D., Flacke, J., Olazabal, M., and Heidrich, O.: The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans–An Empirical Analysis of European Cities, PLoS One, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135597, 2015.
USACE: Louisina Coastal Protection and Restoration (LAPCR), final technical report, US Army Corp of Engineers, available at: http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/Portals/56/docs/environmental/LaCPR/LACPRFinalTechnicalReportJune2009.pdf (last access: 21 May 2017), 2011.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Dottori, F., Giardino, A., Bouziotas, D., Bianchi, A., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L.: Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016.
Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Salamon, P., Simpson, A., Bates, P., De Groeve, T., Muis, S., de Perez, E. C., Rudari, R., Trigg, M. A., and Winsemius, H. C.: Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models, Nature Climate Change, 5, 712–715, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2742, 2015.
World Bank: World Development Indicators, available at: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD, last access: 1 March 2016.
Short summary
We plot the dike costs divided by their length as a function of height and test four different regression models. Our analysis shows that a linear function without intercept is sufficient to model the costs, i.e. fixed costs and higher-order contributions are less significant. We employ log-normal distributions and calculate that the range between 3x and x/3 contains 95% of the data, where x represents the regression value. We compare estimates from Canada, the Netherlands, US, UK, and Vietnam.
We plot the dike costs divided by their length as a function of height and test four different...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint