Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
On the drought in the Balearic Islands during the hydrological year 2015–2016
Climent Ramis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Meteorology Group, Department of Physics, University of the Balearic
Islands, 07122 Palma, Spain
Romualdo Romero
Meteorology Group, Department of Physics, University of the Balearic
Islands, 07122 Palma, Spain
Víctor Homar
Meteorology Group, Department of Physics, University of the Balearic
Islands, 07122 Palma, Spain
Sergio Alonso
Meteorology Group, Department of Physics, University of the Balearic
Islands, 07122 Palma, Spain
Agustí Jansà
Meteorology Group, Department of Physics, University of the Balearic
Islands, 07122 Palma, Spain
Arnau Amengual
Meteorology Group, Department of Physics, University of the Balearic
Islands, 07122 Palma, Spain
Related authors
Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Arnau Amengual, Celso Garcia, Enrique Morán-Tejeda, Víctor Homar, Aina Maimó-Far, Alejandro Hermoso, Climent Ramis, and Romualdo Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2597–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019, 2019
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On 9 October 2018, an extreme convective storm (> 300 mm accumulated in 6 h) generated a flash flood (305 m3 s−1) in the Ses Planes torrent that devastated the town of Sant Llorenç (Mallorca, Spain). Water reached a depth of 3 m in the most affected areas, and there was greatly increased flow velocity at bridges crossing the town. The floodwaters were very powerful and modified the channel morphology: more than 5000 t of sediment was deposited in the 2 km reach upstream of the town.
Toni López Mayol, Víctor Homar, Climent Ramis, and José Antonio Guijarro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, 2017
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This paper presents a very high-resolution atlas of daily precipitations across the Balearic Islands. The generation of this data set not only allows us to lay the groundwork for future updates ingesting a myriad of observation sources but also aims to provide support to local and network–topology independent studies of precipitation–sensitive systems such as ecosystems, water resources and energy systems. As an example, a better understanding of the negative precipitation trends is found.
A. Jansa, P. Alpert, P. Arbogast, A. Buzzi, B. Ivancan-Picek, V. Kotroni, M. C. Llasat, C. Ramis, E. Richard, R. Romero, and A. Speranza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014
C. Ramis, V. Homar, A. Amengual, R. Romero, and S. Alonso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2483–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, 2013
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-130, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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On 22 October 2019, the Francolí river basin (Catalonia, Spain) experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. The main hydrometeorological factors are investigated. The social response times are also collected and compared with catchment dynamics in order to examine the adequacy of monitoring and warning issuance. Finally, the study provides recommendations aimed at minimizing losses and improving preparedness for similar natural hazards in the future.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
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On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
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This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Saoussen Dhib, Víctor Homar, Zoubeida Bargaoui, and Mariadelmar Vich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Previous evaluation of rainfall estimation by satellite algorithms showed an insufficient over Northern Tunisia. That was why we tried the WRF. We selected four heavy rainy days. For each day, 99 combinations of Cu and PBL are simulated. The sensitivity study highlighted the large difference in the estimation by the different schemes. The use of several verification techniques was extremely helpful to choose the best combinations for each event. The ensemble method gave very satisfying results.
Hélène Roux, Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, Ernest Bladé, and Marcos Sanz-Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 425–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-425-2020, 2020
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The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model. Both deterministic (single forecast of the most likely weather) and ensemble forecasts (set or ensemble of forecasts) have been produced on three subcatchments of the eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.
Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Arnau Amengual, Celso Garcia, Enrique Morán-Tejeda, Víctor Homar, Aina Maimó-Far, Alejandro Hermoso, Climent Ramis, and Romualdo Romero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2597–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
On 9 October 2018, an extreme convective storm (> 300 mm accumulated in 6 h) generated a flash flood (305 m3 s−1) in the Ses Planes torrent that devastated the town of Sant Llorenç (Mallorca, Spain). Water reached a depth of 3 m in the most affected areas, and there was greatly increased flow velocity at bridges crossing the town. The floodwaters were very powerful and modified the channel morphology: more than 5000 t of sediment was deposited in the 2 km reach upstream of the town.
Béatrice Vincendon and Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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Discharge forecasts are affected by meteorological and hydrological uncertainties, particularly difficult to handle when dealing with Mediterranean flash-flood. In this work, an intercomparison of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies is presented for heavy precipitation events that affected semi-arid Spanish catchments. Both stategies are more beneficial than a deterministic approach when conveying information to end-users. Their skill is enhanced by shorter forecasting lead-times.
Beatrice Vincendon and Arnau Amengual
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-427, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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Several hydrometeorological prediction systems were designed for two heavy precipitation events that affected Spanish Mediterranean catchments. The uncertainty on precipitation forecasting is sampled through probabilistic atmospheric systems based on two distinct kilometric-scale models. The rainfall scenarios are used to drive two distinct hydrological models. These strategies have proven useful for discharge forecasting, allowing to better encompass the arising uncertainty.
Toni López Mayol, Víctor Homar, Climent Ramis, and José Antonio Guijarro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a very high-resolution atlas of daily precipitations across the Balearic Islands. The generation of this data set not only allows us to lay the groundwork for future updates ingesting a myriad of observation sources but also aims to provide support to local and network–topology independent studies of precipitation–sensitive systems such as ecosystems, water resources and energy systems. As an example, a better understanding of the negative precipitation trends is found.
A. Jansa, P. Alpert, P. Arbogast, A. Buzzi, B. Ivancan-Picek, V. Kotroni, M. C. Llasat, C. Ramis, E. Richard, R. Romero, and A. Speranza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1965–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014, 2014
M. A. Picornell, J. Campins, and A. Jansà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1059–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1059-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1059-2014, 2014
C. Ramis, V. Homar, A. Amengual, R. Romero, and S. Alonso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2483–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Analysis of the phase space of the downburst that occurred on 25 June 2021 in Sânnicolau Mare (Romania)
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
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Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
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The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
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Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
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Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
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Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe
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Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
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Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
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We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
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The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
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Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
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The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
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Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
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Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
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Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
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This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1683, 2023
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The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-158, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Hailstorms cause large damages to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
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Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
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There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
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Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
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The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
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This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
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The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
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Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-103, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 hours ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the south of France in September 2021.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
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The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
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We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
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Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1219, 2023
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How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
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We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
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Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
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To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-62, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. An altering seasonality with the years is regional divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions outstand with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
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We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
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Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
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We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
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This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
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Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
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This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2)The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
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The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
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A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-176, 2023
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Large hail devastates crops and property, and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is incomplete. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate this database to understand the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205, 2023
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This study uses climate projections from 30 climate models and a climate-risk assessment model to obtain projections of future windstorm damage over Europe. We find the damage projections to be highly uncertain and dominated by climate model uncertainty. We find potential increases in windstorm damage over western, and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the projections of windstorms in Europe.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
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A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
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As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
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Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
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Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
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Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
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The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
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During the hydrological year 2015–2016 (September to August) a severe drought affected the Balearic Islands, with substantial consequences on water availability. In this paper we analyze this anomalous episode in terms of the corresponding water balance. It is shown that the drought was the result of a lack of winter precipitation, the lowest in the last 43 years. In several analyzed meteorological stations, evaporation was greater than precipitation during all the months of the year.
During the hydrological year 2015–2016 (September to August) a severe drought affected the...
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