Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-463-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate
The National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK
P. Ciavola
University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
G. Masselink
Plymouth University, Plymouth, UK
R. McCall
Plymouth University, Plymouth, UK
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
A. J. Plater
University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Related authors
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
M. P. Wadey, J. M. Brown, I. D. Haigh, T. Dolphin, and P. Wisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015
P. Dissanayake, J. Brown, and H. Karunarathna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1533–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1533-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1533-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Impacts of storm event chronology in a storm cluster was investigated. The largest event-driven bed level change occurred under the most powerful storm event when it initialised the cluster, and the lowest bed level change occurred for the weakest event when it ended the cluster. Negligible variability in the cumulative impact of the storm clusters occurred in response to different storm wave chronologies. However, the highest erosion was found when the storms approached in increasing severity.
P. J. Knight, T. Prime, J. M. Brown, K. Morrissey, and A. J. Plater
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1457–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1457-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1457-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows.
M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown
Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014
J. M. Brown, L. O. Amoudry, F. M. Mercier, and A. J. Souza
Ocean Sci., 9, 721–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-721-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-721-2013, 2013
Paola Emilia Souto-Ceccon, Juan Montes-Perez, Enrico Duo, Paolo Ciavola, Tomas Fernandez Montblanc, and Clara Armaroli
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-183, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset will support the growing need for information on coastal storm impacts. To our knowledge a specific public access database is not available yet. The database was assembled after an extensive European-scale search of online and published resources and financed by the European Union within the H2020 Programme. Finally, we believe that our approach could be easily exported to all European countries and beyond.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-482, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m/s and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System ECFAS project, presents an approach used to estimate coastal flood direct impacts on population, buildings, and roads along the European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS Impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Enrico Duo, Arthur Chris Trembanis, Stephanie Dohner, Edoardo Grottoli, and Paolo Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2969–2989, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study illustrates the implementation of a local-scale post-event survey that combined GPS and UAV-based techniques with qualitative information collected through interviews with local stakeholders. The comprehensive approach employed in this case study was conducted on the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event that impacted the shoreline on the 5-6 February 2015, called the St Agatha storm.
Marc Sanuy, Enrico Duo, Wiebke S. Jäger, Paolo Ciavola, and José A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1825–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To enable efficient coastal management, present and future scenarios must be included, risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. Process-based models are used to predict hazards at receptors. Impacts are calculated through vulnerability relations. Simulations are integrated with a Bayesian-based approach to link source with consequences. The tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies and as support for coastal decision making.
M. D. Harley, A. Valentini, C. Armaroli, L. Perini, L. Calabrese, and P. Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of a state-of-the-art early-warning system for the coastline of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy is rigorously assessed with regards to a major storm event that occurred in October 2012. It is found that such a system has great potential as a new tool for coastal management, following several improvements to the forecast model chain. What-if scenarios in terms of the construction of artificial dunes prior to this event suggest that this may have helped minimize storm impacts.
L. Perini, L. Calabrese, G. Salerno, P. Ciavola, and C. Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper compares two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations, whose core is the Cost Distance tool of ArcGIS®. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods show a positive agreement.
M. P. Wadey, J. M. Brown, I. D. Haigh, T. Dolphin, and P. Wisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015
P. Dissanayake, J. Brown, and H. Karunarathna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1533–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1533-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1533-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Impacts of storm event chronology in a storm cluster was investigated. The largest event-driven bed level change occurred under the most powerful storm event when it initialised the cluster, and the lowest bed level change occurred for the weakest event when it ended the cluster. Negligible variability in the cumulative impact of the storm clusters occurred in response to different storm wave chronologies. However, the highest erosion was found when the storms approached in increasing severity.
P. J. Knight, T. Prime, J. M. Brown, K. Morrissey, and A. J. Plater
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1457–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1457-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1457-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows.
M. P. Wadey, I. D. Haigh, and J. M. Brown
Ocean Sci., 10, 1031–1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1031-2014, 2014
J. M. Brown, L. O. Amoudry, F. M. Mercier, and A. J. Souza
Ocean Sci., 9, 721–729, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-721-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-721-2013, 2013
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Armstrong, J., Wilby, R., and Nicholls, R. J.: Climate change adaptation
frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2511–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, 2015.
Ashton, A., Murray, B., and Arnauly, O.: Formation of coastline features by
large-scale instabilities induced by high angle waves, Nature, 414, 296–299, 2001.
Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Vafeidism A., Hinkel, J., and Watkiss, P.: The
Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise in Europe and the Costs and
Benefits of Adaptation. Summary of Results from the EC RTD ClimateCost
Project, in: The ClimateCost Project, Final Report, Vol. 1: Europe, edited by:
Watkiss, P., Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, 44 pp., 2011.
De Winter, R. C., Sterl, A., de Vries, J. W., Weber, S. L., and Ruessink, B.
G.: The effect of climate change on extreme waves in front of the Dutch
coast, Ocean Dynam., 62, 1139–1152, 2012.
Dissanayake, P., Brown, J., and Karunarathna, H.: Impacts of storm
chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system,
UK, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1533–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1533-2015, 2015.
Fakhruddin, S. H. M., Babel, M. S., and Kawasaki, A.: Assessing the
vulnerability of infrastructure to climate change on the Islands of Samoa,
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1343–1356, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1343-2015, 2015.
Flowerdew, J., Horsburgh, K., Wilson, C., and Mylne K.: Development and
evaluation of an ensemble forecasting system for coastal storm surges, Q. J.
R. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1444–1456, 2010.
Harley, M. D., Valentini, A., Armaroli, C., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and
Ciavola, P.: Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of
coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy,
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016, 2016.
Hodges, B. R.: Representing hydrodynamically important blocking features in
coastal or riverine lidar topography, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15,
1011–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1011-2015, 2015.
Howard, T., Pardaens, A. K., Bamber, J. L., Ridley, J., Spada, G., Hurkmans,
R. T. W. L., Lowe, J. A., and Vaughan, D.: Sources of 21st century regional
sea-level rise along the coast of northwest Europe, Ocean Sci., 10, 473–483,
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014, 2014.
Knight, P. J., Prime, T., Brown, J. M., Morrissey, K., and Plater, A. J.:
Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision
support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 15, 1457–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1457-2015, 2015.
Lapidez, J. P., Tablazon, J., Dasallas, L., Gonzalo, L. A., Cabacaba, K. M.,
Ramos, M. M. A., Suarez, J. K., Santiago, J., Lagmay, A. M. F., and Malano,
V.: Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines
through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over
historical storm tracks, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1473–1481,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1473-2015, 2015.
Pescaroli, G. and Magni, M.: Flood warnings in coastal areas: how do
experience and information influence responses to alert services?, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 703–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-703-2015, 2015.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Salerno, G., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.:
Evaluation of coastal vulnerability to flooding: comparison of two different
methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016.
Pine, J. C.: Enhancing the Resilience of Coastal Communities: Dealing with
Immediate and Long-Term Impacts of Natural Hazards, in: Chapter 12.13 In
Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, edited by: Wolanski, E. and
McLusky, D., Academic Press, Waltham, 271–288, 2011.
Sekovski, I., Armaroli, C., Calabrese, L., Mancini, F., Stecchi, F., and
Perini, L.: Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the
Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2331–2346,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2331-2015, 2015.
Sembiring, L., van Ormondt, M., van Dongeren, A., and Roelvink, D.: A
validation of an operational wave and surge prediction system for the Dutch
coast, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1231–1242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1231-2015, 2015.
Smolders, S., Plancke, Y., Ides, S., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.: Role of
intertidal wetlands for tidal and storm tide attenuation along a confined
estuary: a model study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1659–1675,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1659-2015, 2015.
Stevens, A. J., Clarke, D., Nicholls, R. J., and Wadey, M. P.: Estimating
the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal
populations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1215–1229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1215-2015, 2015.
Van Dongeren, A., Van Ormondt, M., Sembiring, L., Sasso, R., Austin, M.,
Briere, C., Swinkels, C., Roelvink, D., and Van Thiel de Vries, J.: Rip
current predictions through model data assimilation on two distinct beaches,
Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Coastal Dynamics,
Bordeaux, France, 1775–1786, 2013.
Wadey, M. P., Brown, J. M., Haigh, I. D., Dolphin, T., and Wisse, P.:
Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the
2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15,
2209–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015, 2015.
Altmetrics