Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 15, issue 10
Articles | Volume 15, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2401-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2401-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 10
Research article
 | 
23 Oct 2015
Research article |  | 23 Oct 2015

A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion

J. P. Wang and Y. Xu

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Short summary
This paper introduces a new non-stationary calculation of characteristic earthquake probability, motivated and derived from the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. A total of six parameters are present in the model, including earthquake return period, fault-plane strength parameters, rock unit weight, focal depth, and the level of uncertainty of annual stress increment. In addition to the detailed derivations in the algorithm, a model demonstration is also presented in the paper.
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