A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion

Wang, J. P.; Xu, Y.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2401-2015

Articles | Volume 15, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2401-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2401-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 10

Research article

|

23 Oct 2015

Research article |

| 23 Oct 2015

A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion

J. P. Wang and Y. Xu

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Final revised paper (published on 23 Oct 2015)
Preprint (discussion started on 31 Jul 2014)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C3722: 'Review of "Probability assessment on the recurring Meishan earthquake in central Taiwan with a new non-stationary model"', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 May 2015
- AC C3855: 'all combined (revision, commpent and response, annotated revision)', J.P. Wang, 10 Jul 2015
RC C3797: 'Comments', Chung-Han Chan, 02 Jun 2015
- AC C3869: 'Revision and comment and reponse', J.P. Wang, 10 Jul 2015

Short summary

This paper introduces a new non-stationary calculation of characteristic earthquake probability, motivated and derived from the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. A total of six parameters are present in the model, including earthquake return period, fault-plane strength parameters, rock unit weight, focal depth, and the level of uncertainty of annual stress increment. In addition to the detailed derivations in the algorithm, a model demonstration is also presented in the paper.