Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1785-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1785-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Predicting storm-triggered debris flow events: application to the 2009 Ionian Peloritan disaster (Sicily, Italy)
M. Cama
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
L. Lombardo
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
Department of Physical Geography and GIS, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
C. Conoscenti
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
V. Agnesi
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
E. Rotigliano
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy
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Cited
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An updated landslide susceptibility model and a log-Gaussian Cox process extension for Scotland E. Bryce et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02368-9
- A Probabilistic Assessment of Soil Erosion Susceptibility in a Head Catchment of the Jemma Basin, Ethiopian Highlands M. Cama et al. 10.3390/geosciences10070248
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- Investigating the Effects of Cell Size in Statistical Landslide Susceptibility Modelling for Different Landslide Typologies: A Test in Central–Northern Sicily C. Martinello et al. 10.3390/app13021145
- Handling high predictor dimensionality in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models through LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model D. Camilo et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.08.003
- Exploiting Maximum Entropy method and ASTER data for assessing debris flow and debris slide susceptibility for the Giampilieri catchment (north‐eastern Sicily, Italy) L. Lombardo et al. 10.1002/esp.3998
- Space-time landslide predictive modelling L. Lombardo et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103318
- Improving transferability strategies for debris flow susceptibility assessment: Application to the Saponara and Itala catchments (Messina, Italy) M. Cama et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.03.025
- Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides by Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach: A Case Study of the 2001 El Salvador Coseismic Landslides C. Mercurio et al. 10.3390/ijgi12040178
- Landslide susceptibility maps of Italy: Lesson learnt from dealing with multiple landslide types and the uneven spatial distribution of the national inventory M. Loche et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104125
- Landslide susceptibility mapping using precipitation data, Mazandaran Province, north of Iran M. Arab Amiri & C. Conoscenti 10.1007/s11069-017-2962-8
- Investigating Limits in Exploiting Assembled Landslide Inventories for Calibrating Regional Susceptibility Models: A Test in Volcanic Areas of El Salvador C. Martinello et al. 10.3390/app12126151
- Surface temperature controls the pattern of post-earthquake landslide activity M. Loche et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-04992-8
- Mapping Susceptibility to Debris Flows Triggered by Tropical Storms: A Case Study of the San Vicente Volcano Area (El Salvador, CA) C. Mercurio et al. 10.3390/earth2010005
- Accounting for covariate distributions in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models. A case study in the alpine environment G. Amato et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105237
- From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: rewinding to the past via statistical simulations L. Luo et al. 10.1007/s00477-020-01959-x
- Predicting gully occurrence at watershed scale: Comparing topographic indices and multivariate statistical models C. Conoscenti & E. Rotigliano 10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107123
- Landslide-hazard mapping through multi-technique activity assessment: an example from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain) J. Jiménez-Perálvarez et al. 10.1007/s10346-017-0851-6
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- Space-time susceptibility modeling of hydro-morphological processes at the Chinese national scale N. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2022.106586
- Exploring the effect of absence selection on landslide susceptibility models: A case study in Sicily, Italy C. Conoscenti et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.03.006
- Chrono-validation of near-real-time landslide susceptibility models via plug-in statistical simulations L. Lombardo & H. Tanyas 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105818
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- Physically-based catchment-scale prediction of slope failure volume and geometry B. Van den Bout et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105942
- Presence-only approach to assess landslide triggering-thickness susceptibility: a test for the Mili catchment (north-eastern Sicily, Italy) L. Lombardo et al. 10.1007/s11069-016-2443-5
- Reconstruction of a Storm Map and New Approach in the Definition of Categories of the Extreme Rainfall, Northeastern Sicily F. Fiorillo et al. 10.3390/w8080330
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- Landslide susceptibility map refinement using PSInSAR data A. Ciampalini et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2016.07.018
- Integration of two-phase solid fluid equations in a catchment model for flashfloods, debris flows and shallow slope failures B. Bout et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.017
- Predicting the landslides triggered by the 2009 96E/Ida tropical storms in the Ilopango caldera area (El Salvador, CA): optimizing MARS-based model building and validation strategies E. Rotigliano et al. 10.1007/s12665-019-8214-3
- Landslide Susceptibility Based on Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslide Inventories and the Following Landslide Evolution C. Wu 10.3390/w11122609
- High-resolution Bayesian mapping of landslide hazard with unobserved trigger event T. Opitz et al. 10.1214/21-AOAS1561
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An updated landslide susceptibility model and a log-Gaussian Cox process extension for Scotland E. Bryce et al. 10.1007/s10346-024-02368-9
- A Probabilistic Assessment of Soil Erosion Susceptibility in a Head Catchment of the Jemma Basin, Ethiopian Highlands M. Cama et al. 10.3390/geosciences10070248
- Combining multi-typologies landslide susceptibility maps: a case study for the Visso area (central Italy) C. Martinello et al. 10.1080/17445647.2023.2198148
- Investigating the Effects of Cell Size in Statistical Landslide Susceptibility Modelling for Different Landslide Typologies: A Test in Central–Northern Sicily C. Martinello et al. 10.3390/app13021145
- Handling high predictor dimensionality in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models through LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model D. Camilo et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.08.003
- Exploiting Maximum Entropy method and ASTER data for assessing debris flow and debris slide susceptibility for the Giampilieri catchment (north‐eastern Sicily, Italy) L. Lombardo et al. 10.1002/esp.3998
- Space-time landslide predictive modelling L. Lombardo et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103318
- Improving transferability strategies for debris flow susceptibility assessment: Application to the Saponara and Itala catchments (Messina, Italy) M. Cama et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.03.025
- Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides by Using a Stochastic Modeling Approach: A Case Study of the 2001 El Salvador Coseismic Landslides C. Mercurio et al. 10.3390/ijgi12040178
- Landslide susceptibility maps of Italy: Lesson learnt from dealing with multiple landslide types and the uneven spatial distribution of the national inventory M. Loche et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104125
- Landslide susceptibility mapping using precipitation data, Mazandaran Province, north of Iran M. Arab Amiri & C. Conoscenti 10.1007/s11069-017-2962-8
- Investigating Limits in Exploiting Assembled Landslide Inventories for Calibrating Regional Susceptibility Models: A Test in Volcanic Areas of El Salvador C. Martinello et al. 10.3390/app12126151
- Surface temperature controls the pattern of post-earthquake landslide activity M. Loche et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-04992-8
- Mapping Susceptibility to Debris Flows Triggered by Tropical Storms: A Case Study of the San Vicente Volcano Area (El Salvador, CA) C. Mercurio et al. 10.3390/earth2010005
- Accounting for covariate distributions in slope-unit-based landslide susceptibility models. A case study in the alpine environment G. Amato et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105237
- From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: rewinding to the past via statistical simulations L. Luo et al. 10.1007/s00477-020-01959-x
- Predicting gully occurrence at watershed scale: Comparing topographic indices and multivariate statistical models C. Conoscenti & E. Rotigliano 10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107123
- Landslide-hazard mapping through multi-technique activity assessment: an example from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain) J. Jiménez-Perálvarez et al. 10.1007/s10346-017-0851-6
- Comparing impact effects of common storms and Medicanes along the coast of south-eastern Sicily G. Scicchitano et al. 10.1016/j.margeo.2021.106556
- The influence of forest cover on landslide occurrence explored with spatio-temporal information E. Schmaltz et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.04.024
- Robustness evaluation of the probability-based HTCA model for simulating debris-flow run-out extent: Case study of the 2010 Hongchun event, China Y. Ma et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2022.106918
- Geostatistical Modeling to Capture Seismic‐Shaking Patterns From Earthquake‐Induced Landslides L. Lombardo et al. 10.1029/2019JF005056
- Optimal slope units partitioning in landslide susceptibility mapping C. Martinello et al. 10.1080/17445647.2020.1805807
- Spatio-temporal pattern distribution of landslides causing damage in Switzerland M. Tonini & M. Cama 10.1007/s10346-019-01236-1
- Modeling impacts of climate change on return period of landslide triggering D. Peres & A. Cancelliere 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.036
- Point process-based modeling of multiple debris flow landslides using INLA: an application to the 2009 Messina disaster L. Lombardo et al. 10.1007/s00477-018-1518-0
- Landform classification: a high-performing mapping unit partitioning tool for landslide susceptibility assessment—a test in the Imera River basin (northern Sicily, Italy) C. Martinello et al. 10.1007/s10346-021-01781-8
- Space-time susceptibility modeling of hydro-morphological processes at the Chinese national scale N. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2022.106586
- Exploring the effect of absence selection on landslide susceptibility models: A case study in Sicily, Italy C. Conoscenti et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.03.006
- Chrono-validation of near-real-time landslide susceptibility models via plug-in statistical simulations L. Lombardo & H. Tanyas 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105818
- Prediction of debris-avalanches and -flows triggered by a tropical storm by using a stochastic approach: An application to the events occurred in Mocoa (Colombia) on 1 April 2017 G. Vargas-Cuervo et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.04.023
- Physically-based catchment-scale prediction of slope failure volume and geometry B. Van den Bout et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105942
- Presence-only approach to assess landslide triggering-thickness susceptibility: a test for the Mili catchment (north-eastern Sicily, Italy) L. Lombardo et al. 10.1007/s11069-016-2443-5
- Reconstruction of a Storm Map and New Approach in the Definition of Categories of the Extreme Rainfall, Northeastern Sicily F. Fiorillo et al. 10.3390/w8080330
- Exploring relationships between grid cell size and accuracy for debris-flow susceptibility models: a test in the Giampilieri catchment (Sicily, Italy) M. Cama et al. 10.1007/s12665-015-5047-6
- Evaluation of different machine learning models for predicting and mapping the susceptibility of gully erosion O. Rahmati et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.09.006
- Exploring the geomorphological adequacy of the landslide susceptibility maps: A test for different types of landslides in the Bidente river basin (northern Italy) C. Martinello et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2024.107835
- Spatiotemporal clustering of flash floods in a changing climate (China, 1950–2015) N. Wang et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2109-2021
- From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: fast-forwarding to the future via statistical simulations L. Lombardo & H. Tanyas 10.1007/s00477-021-02020-1
- A novel ensemble learning based on Bayesian Belief Network coupled with an extreme learning machine for flash flood susceptibility mapping A. Shirzadi et al. 10.1016/j.engappai.2020.103971
- Soil moisture information can improve shallow landslide forecasting using the hydrometeorological threshold approach P. Marino et al. 10.1007/s10346-020-01420-8
- Presenting logistic regression-based landslide susceptibility results L. Lombardo & P. Mai 10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.07.019
- Landslide susceptibility map refinement using PSInSAR data A. Ciampalini et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2016.07.018
- Integration of two-phase solid fluid equations in a catchment model for flashfloods, debris flows and shallow slope failures B. Bout et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.017
- Predicting the landslides triggered by the 2009 96E/Ida tropical storms in the Ilopango caldera area (El Salvador, CA): optimizing MARS-based model building and validation strategies E. Rotigliano et al. 10.1007/s12665-019-8214-3
- Landslide Susceptibility Based on Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslide Inventories and the Following Landslide Evolution C. Wu 10.3390/w11122609
- High-resolution Bayesian mapping of landslide hazard with unobserved trigger event T. Opitz et al. 10.1214/21-AOAS1561
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 21 Nov 2024
Short summary
This work aims to test the basic assumption that new landslides will occur under the same conditions which drove the past ones, within the framework of susceptibility assessment. In order to evaluate the domain of validity of the aforementioned assumption, models have been built to predict two landslide scenarios exhibited in different time frames in the catchment of Itala (southern Italy). Chrono-validation procedures are carried out both forwards and backwards in time.
This work aims to test the basic assumption that new landslides will occur under the same...
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