Predicting storm-triggered debris flow events: application to the 2009 Ionian Peloritan disaster (Sicily, Italy)

Cama, M.; Lombardo, L.; Conoscenti, C.; Agnesi, V.; Rotigliano, E.

doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1785-2015

Articles | Volume 15, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1785-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Landslide Prediction & Forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1785-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 8

Research article

|

13 Aug 2015

Research article |

| 13 Aug 2015

Predicting storm-triggered debris flow events: application to the 2009 Ionian Peloritan disaster (Sicily, Italy)

M. Cama, L. Lombardo, C. Conoscenti, V. Agnesi, and E. Rotigliano

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Latest update: 06 Dec 2025

Short summary

This work aims to test the basic assumption that new landslides will occur under the same conditions which drove the past ones, within the framework of susceptibility assessment. In order to evaluate the domain of validity of the aforementioned assumption, models have been built to predict two landslide scenarios exhibited in different time frames in the catchment of Itala (southern Italy). Chrono-validation procedures are carried out both forwards and backwards in time.