Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015
Brief communication
 | 
11 Aug 2015
Brief communication |  | 11 Aug 2015

Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence

M. Raschke

Abstract. In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.

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Here, I discuss and improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm...
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