Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Feb 2014
Research article |
| 04 Feb 2014
A quality assessment framework for natural hazard event documentation: application to trans-basin flood reports in Germany
S. Uhlemann
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Potsdam, Germany
now at: ASPEN Re, Aspen Insurance UK Limited, Research and Development, Zurich, Switzerland
A. H. Thieken
University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Potsdam, Germany
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
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Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022, 2022
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Guilherme S. Mohor, Annegret H. Thieken, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021
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Abhirup Banerjee, Bedartha Goswami, Yoshito Hirata, Deniz Eroglu, Bruno Merz, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-213-2021, 2021
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, Sergiy Vorogushyn, David Lun, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1347–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1347-2021, 2021
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We estimate the contribution of extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt to changes in small and large floods across Europe.
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Gustavo Andrei Speckhann, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 731–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-731-2021, 2021
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Jerom P. M. Aerts, Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Dirk Eilander, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, 2020
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We compare and analyse flood hazard maps from eight global flood models that represent the current state of the global flood modelling community. We apply our comparison to China as a case study, and for the first time, we include industry models, pluvial flooding, and flood protection standards. We find substantial variability between the flood hazard maps in the modelled inundated area and exposed gross domestic product (GDP) across multiple return periods and in expected annual exposed GDP.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2997-2020, 2020
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Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2503–2519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2503-2020, 2020
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The flood damage database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. This paper presents HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data.
Zhihua He, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Stephan M. Weise, Doris Duethmann, Olga Kalashnikova, Abror Gafurov, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3289–3309, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3289-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the seasonal contributions of the runoff components, including groundwater, snowmelt, glacier melt, and rainfall, to streamflow is highly necessary for understanding the dynamics of water resources in glacierized basins given the vulnerability of snow- and glacier-dominated environments to the current climate warming. Our study provides the first comparison of two end-member mixing approaches for hydrograph separation in glacierized basins.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Rathinasamy Maheswaran, Ugur Ozturk, Jürgen Kurths, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020, 2020
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In the climate/hydrology network, each node represents a geographical location of climatological data, and links between nodes are set up based on their interaction or similar variability. Here, using network theory, we first generate a node-ranking measure and then prioritize the rain gauges to identify influential and expandable stations across Germany. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, we also compared the results with existing traditional and contemporary network measures.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, 2020
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The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
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For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
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Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Jürgen Kurths, Ankit Agarwal, Roopam Shukla, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Levke Caesar, Raghavan Krishnan, and Bruno Merz
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, 2019
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We examined the spatial diversity of Indian rainfall teleconnection at different timescales, first by identifying homogeneous communities and later by computing non-linear linkages between the identified communities (spatial regions) and dominant climatic patterns, represented by climatic indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
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We investigate whether flood probabilities in Europe vary for different large-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Maximum seasonal river flows from 600 gauges in Europe and five synchronous atmospheric circulation indices are analyzed. We find that a high percentage of stations is influenced by at least one of the climate indices, especially during winter. These results can be useful for preparedness and damage planning by (re-)insurance companies.
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018
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We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2859–2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018, 2018
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In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Marlies Holkje Barendrecht, Alberto Viglione, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 379, 193–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-193-2018, 2018
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The aim of this paper is to assess whether a Socio-Hydrological model can be calibrated to data artificially generated from it. This is not trivial because the model is highly nonlinear and it is not clear what amount of data would be needed for calibration. We demonstrate that, using Bayesian inference, the parameters of the model can be estimated quite accurately from relatively few data, which could be available in real case studies.
Nguyen Le Duy, Ingo Heidbüchel, Hanno Meyer, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1239–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018, 2018
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This study analyzes the influence of local and regional meteorological factors on the isotopic composition of precipitation. The impact of the different factors on the isotopic condition was quantified by multiple linear regression of all factor combinations combined with relative importance analysis. The proposed approach might open a pathway for the improved reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Jonas Laudan, Viktor Rözer, Tobias Sieg, Kristin Vogel, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017, 2017
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The flash flood in Braunsbach, Germany, in May 2016 was a severe and rather unfamiliar event which caused high monetary losses and heavy damage to buildings. Between 7 and 8 June we investigated all affected houses and conducted damage assessment to gain insights into the damage driving factors of those events. We conclude that the damage driving factors are complex and also differ partly from those of riverine floods, pointing out the need for further research.
Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Kai Schröter, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2075–2092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2075-2017, 2017
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Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. To gain more knowledge, surveys were taken after the 2002 and the 2013 floods in Germany. Results show that early warning and preparedness improved substantially. However, there is still room for further improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication.
Ankit Agarwal, Norbert Marwan, Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Bruno Merz, and Jürgen Kurths
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 599–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-599-2017, 2017
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Extreme events such as floods and droughts result from synchronization of different natural processes working at multiple timescales. Investigation on an observation timescale will not reveal the inherent underlying dynamics triggering these events. This paper develops a new method based on wavelets and event synchronization to unravel the hidden dynamics responsible for such sudden events. This method is tested with synthetic and real-world cases and the results are promising.
Matthieu Spekkers, Viktor Rözer, Annegret Thieken, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1337–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1337-2017, 2017
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hideto Fujii, Matti Kummu, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017, 2017
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In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta.
Mathias Seibert, Bruno Merz, and Heiko Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1611–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1611-2017, 2017
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Seasonal early warning is vital for drought management in arid regions like the Limpopo Basin in southern Africa. This study shows that skilled seasonal forecasts can be achieved with statistical methods built upon driving factors for drought occurrence. These are the hydrological factors for current streamflow and meteorological drivers represented by anomalies in sea surface temperatures of the surrounding oceans, which combine to form unique combinations in the drought forecast models.
Lars Gerlitz, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4605–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016, 2016
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Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction.
This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.
Patric Kellermann, Christine Schönberger, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2357–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, 2016
Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4283–4306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016, 2016
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To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.
Jaroslav Mysiak, Swenja Surminski, Annegret Thieken, Reinhard Mechler, and Jeroen Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2189–2193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016, 2016
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In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Annegret H. Thieken, Tina Bessel, Sarah Kienzler, Heidi Kreibich, Meike Müller, Sebastian Pisi, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016, 2016
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In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in central Europe, especially in Germany. The paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data, and how good data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international level, e.g. by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Bruno Merz
Proc. IAHS, 373, 179–182, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016, 2016
Heiko Apel, Oriol Martínez Trepat, Nguyen Nghia Hung, Do Thi Chinh, Bruno Merz, and Nguyen Viet Dung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 941–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, 2016
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Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, thus this study aims to analyse fluvial and pluvial flood hazards as well as combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazards. This combined fluvial–pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed in a tropical environment for Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. The final results are probabilistic hazard maps, showing the maximum inundation caused by floods of different magnitudes along with an uncertainty estimation.
P. Kellermann, A. Schöbel, G. Kundela, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2485–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, 2015
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
S. Kienzler, I. Pech, H. Kreibich, M. Müller, and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 505–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-505-2015, 2015
A. Gafurov, S. Vorogushyn, D. Farinotti, D. Duethmann, A. Merkushkin, and B. Merz
The Cryosphere, 9, 451–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-451-2015, 2015
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Spatially distributed snow-cover data are available only for the recent past from remote sensing. Sometimes we need snow-cover data over a longer period for climate impact analysis for the calibration/validation of hydrological models. In this study we present a methodology to reconstruct snow cover in the past using available long-term in situ data and recently available remote sensing snow-cover data. The results show about 85% accuracy although only a limited number of stations (7) were used.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
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Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
N. V. Manh, N. V. Dung, N. N. Hung, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1579–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014, 2014
H. Cammerer, A. H. Thieken, and J. Lammel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3063–3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013, 2013
C. Pfurtscheller and A. H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2619–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2619-2013, 2013
S. Vorogushyn and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3871–3884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3871-2013, 2013
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3127–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3127-2013, 2013
N. V. Manh, B. Merz, and H. Apel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3039–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3039-2013, 2013
D. Duethmann, J. Zimmer, A. Gafurov, A. Güntner, D. Kriegel, B. Merz, and S. Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2415–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2415-2013, 2013
V. Meyer, N. Becker, V. Markantonis, R. Schwarze, J. C. J. M. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, E. Genovese, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, H. Kreibich, Q. Lequeux, I. Logar, E. Papyrakis, C. Pfurtscheller, J. Poussin, V. Przyluski, A. H. Thieken, and C. Viavattene
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1351–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1351-2013, 2013
M. Nied, Y. Hundecha, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1401–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1401-2013, 2013
S. Uhlemann, R. Bertelmann, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 895–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-895-2013, 2013
N. V. Dung, B. Merz, A. Bárdossy, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Merz, H. Kreibich, and U. Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-53-2013, 2013
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It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Rapid high-resolution impact-based flood early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
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Claudia Teutschbein, Thomas Grabs, Markus Giese, Andrijana Todorović, and Roland Barthel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2541–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, 2025
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This study is an exploration of how droughts develop and spread in high-latitude regions, focusing on the unique conditions found in areas like Scandinavia. It reveals that droughts affect soil, rivers, and groundwater differently, depending on such factors as land cover, water availability, and soil properties. The findings highlight the importance of tailored water management strategies to protect resources and ecosystems in these regions, especially as climate change continues to affect weather patterns.
Alessia Ferrari, Giulia Passadore, Renato Vacondio, Luca Carniello, Mattia Pivato, Elena Crestani, Francesco Carraro, Francesca Aureli, Sara Carta, Francesca Stumpo, and Paolo Mignosa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2473–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2473-2025, 2025
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Between 17 and 20 September 2024, the Lamone River basin in northern Italy was hit by extreme precipitation. This study adopts the hydrological model Rhyme and the hydrodynamic model PARFLOOD to simulate the hydrological processes in the watershed and the levee-breach-induced inundation affecting the village of Traversara. The close match between the resulting flooded areas and the observed ones shows the capability of these numerical models to support the preparedness for at-risk populations.
Yue Zhu, Paolo Burlando, Puay Yok Tan, Christian Geiß, and Simone Fatichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2271–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2271-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2271-2025, 2025
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This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting floods in regions with limited terrain data. By utilising a deep learning model, we developed a method that improves the resolution of digital elevation data by fusing low-resolution elevation data with high-resolution satellite imagery. This approach not only substantially enhances flood prediction accuracy, but also holds potential for broader applications in simulating natural hazards that require terrain information.
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2007–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025, 2025
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The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1737–1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1737-2025, 2025
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This work introduces RIM2D (Rapid Inundation Model 2D), a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions that is ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1293–1313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1293-2025, 2025
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Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out and structural changes challenge water resources management of the German capital Berlin. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater and surface water. Analysing the impacts of the 2018–2023 drought helps to address water-related challenges and implement effective measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1187–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1187-2025, 2025
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Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large-inland-lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, their processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes of two inland lakes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modeling. Their causes and mechanisms were also investigated.
Laurent Pascal Malang Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
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We propose a decision support tool that detect the occurrence of flooding by drainage overflow, with sufficiently short calculation times. The simulations are based on a drainage topology on 5 m grids, incorporating changes to surface flows induced by urbanization. The method can be used for flood mapping in project mode and in real time. It applies to the present situation as well as to any scenario involving climate change or urban growth.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1071–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1071-2025, 2025
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The 2022 monsoon in Pakistan's Swat River basin brought record rainfall, exceeding averages by 7–8%, triggering catastrophic debris flows and floods. Key factors include extreme rainfall, deforestation, and steep slopes. Fieldwork, remote sensing, and simulations highlight land degradation's role in intensifying floods. Recommendations include reforestation, early warning systems, and land use reforms to protect communities and reduce future risks
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 975–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-975-2025, 2025
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Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine the RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early-warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, 2025
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West Africa is very vulnerable to rivers floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 893–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-893-2025, 2025
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Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In northeastern Brazil, we compare official data to local experiences, finding data mismatches and blind spots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blind spots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Andrew Schepen, Andrew Bolt, Dorine Bruget, John Carter, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Zvi Hochman, Neal Hughes, Chris Sharman, Peter Tan, and Peter Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, 2025
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The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important factors like soil conditions and market prices. We have developed an agricultural drought forecasting system to help drought analysts and policymakers more accurately identify communities that are enduring financial stress. By coupling climate forecasts and agricultural models, we can skillfully predict crop yields and farm profits for the coming seasons, which will support proactive responses.
Edward R. Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 727–745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-727-2025, 2025
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Post-wildfire flooding and debris are dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
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In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Till Francke and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, 2025
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Brandenburg is among the driest federal states in Germany. The low ground water recharge (GWR) is fundamental to both water supply and the support of natural ecosystems. In this study, we show that the decline of observed discharge and groundwater tables since 1980 can be explained by climate change in combination with an increasing leaf area index. Still, simulated GWR rates remain highly uncertain due to the uncertainty of precipitation trends.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
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A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
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Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
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Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
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Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
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This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
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This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
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When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
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Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
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This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
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Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
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A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
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The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
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Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
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We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
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Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
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This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
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We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
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Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
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Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Ann M. Youberg, Charles J. Abolt, and Adam L. Atchley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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After a fire, soil infiltration decreases, increasing flash flood risks, worsened by intense rainfall from climate change. Using data from a burned watershed in Arizona and a hydrological model, we examined postfire soil changes under medium and high emissions scenarios. Results showed soil infiltration increased sixfold from the first to third postfire year. Both scenarios suggest that rainfall intensification will extend high flood risks after fires by late century.
Yu Gao, Haipeng Lu, Yaru Zhang, Hengxu Jin, Shuai Wu, Yixuan Gao, and Shuliang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), where we determined flood risk assessment indices across different dimensions, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. We constructed a flood risk assessment model using AutoML and AHP to examine the spatial and temporal changes in flood risk in the region over the past 30 years (1990 to 2020), aiming to provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and resilience strategies in the YRDUA.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
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Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
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Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
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Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
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The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Tabea Wilke, Katharina Lengfeld, and Markus Schultze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, 2024
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Hail in Germany is a natural hazard that is not in everyone's focus, even though it can cause great damage. In this study we focus on hail frequency, sizes and spatial distribution in Germany based on crowd sourcing and weather radar data. We compare different algorithms based on weather radar data with crowd sourced data and show the annual and diurnal cycle of hail in Germany.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
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This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
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Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
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Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
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We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
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Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
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On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
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