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Volume 14, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 04 Jul 2014
Research article | 04 Jul 2014
Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013
C. M. Grams et al.
Related authors
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
M. Rautenhaus, C. M. Grams, A. Schäfler, and R. Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the application of interactive 3D visualization of ensemble
weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. A method to predict 3D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of WCBs is developed and integrated into the 3D visualization tool "Met.3D", introduced in the first part of this two-paper study. A case study demonstrates the use of 3D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting.
Iris Thurnherr, Katharina Hartmuth, Lukas Jansing, Josué Gehring, Maxi Boettcher, Irina Gorodetskaya, Martin Werner, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-46, 2020
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are important for the transport of moisture from low to high latitudes. In this study, we investigate, how the isotopic composition of water vapour is affected by horizontal temperature advection associated with extratropical cyclones using measurements and modelling. It is shown, that air–sea moisture fluxes induced by this horizontal temperature advection lead to the large variability observed in the isotopic composition of water vapour in the marine boundary layer.
Daniel Steinfeld, Maxi Boettcher, Richard Forbes, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of latent heating on atmospheric blocking is investigated using numerical sensitivity experiments. The modification of latent heating in the upstream cyclone has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation, demonstrating that some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating. The results highlight the importance of moist-diabatic processes for the dynamics of prolonged anticyclonic circulation anomalies.
Sebastian Schemm, Heini Wernli, and Hanin Binder
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-33, 2020
Preprint under review for WCD
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian M. Grams, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We cannot currently predict the weather over Europe beyond 2 weeks. The stratosphere provides a promising opportunity to go beyond that limit by providing a change in probability of certain weather regimes at the surface. However, not all stratospheric extreme events are followed by the same surface weather evolution. We show that this weather evolution is related to the tropospheric weather regime around the onset of the stratospheric extreme event for many stratospheric events.
Raphael Portmann, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-30, 2020
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate the three-dimensional life cycle of cyclonic structures (so-called PV cutoffs) in the upper troposphere. PV cutoffs are frequent weather systems in the extratropics and contribute substantially to high impact weather in many regions of the globe. However, many unknowns exist regarding their evolution. Using a new method to track PV cutoffs in reanalysis data, their life cycle is studied in detail and a classification into three life cycle types is proposed.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Matthias Röthlisberger, Maxi Boettcher, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-28, 2020
Preprint under review for WCD
Hanin Binder, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-26, 2020
Revised manuscript under review for WCD
Short summary
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important cloud and precipitation producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones. By combining satellite observations with model data from a new reanalysis dataset, this study provides detailed observational insight into the vertical cloud structure of WCBs. We find that the reanalyses essentially capture the observed cloud pattern, but the observations reveal many mesoscale structures not resolved by the temporally and spatially much coarser-resolution model data.
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
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Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
Stefan Rüdisühli, Michael Sprenger, David Leutwyler, Christoph Schär, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-18, 2020
Preprint under review for WCD
Short summary
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Most precipitation over Europe is linked to low-pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, or high-pressure systems. Based on a massive computer simulation able to resolve thunderstorms, we quantify in detail how much precipitation these weather systems produced during 2000–2008. We find distinct seasonal and regional differences, such as fronts precipitating a lot in fall and winter over the North Atlantic, but high-pressure systems mostly in summer over the continent by way of thunderstorms.
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
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We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
Mauro Hermann, Lukas Papritz, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-16, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for WCD
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We find, by tracing backward in time, that air masses causing extensive melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet originate from further south and lower altitudes than usual. Their exceptional warmth further arises due to ascent and cloud formation, which is special compared to near-surface heatwaves in the midlatitudes or the Central Arctic. The atmospheric systems and transport pathways identified here are crucial in understanding and simulating the atmospheric control of the ice sheet in the future.
Annika Oertel, Maxi Boettcher, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 127–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127-2020, 2020
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Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important, mainly stratiform cloud forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones that can include embedded convection. This WCB case study systematically compares the characteristics of convective vs. slantwise ascent of the WCB. We find that embedded convection leads to regions of significantly stronger precipitation. Moreover, it strongly modifies the potential vorticity distribution in the lower and upper troposphere, where its also influences the waveguide.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Michael Sprenger, Emmanouil Flaounas, Urs Beyerle, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-45-2020, 2020
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In this study we quantify how much the coldest, middle and hottest third of all days during extremely hot summers contribute to their respective seasonal mean anomaly. This
extreme-summer substructurevaries substantially across the Northern Hemisphere and is directly related to the local physical drivers of extreme summers. Furthermore, comparing re-analysis (i.e. measurement-based) and climate model extreme-summer substructures reveals a remarkable level of agreement.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
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Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
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This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Raphael Portmann, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2019-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2019-1, 2019
Revised manuscript under review for WCD
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In September 2018 a Mediterranean cyclone with structural similarities to a hurricane, a so called Medicane, caused severe damages in Greece. The development of the Medicane was uncertain, even a few days ahead. We find that the reason for this was an uncertain state of the jet stream over North America two days earlier. This uncertainty grew and propagated into the Mediterranean where it lead to uncertainty in the location of the cyclone formation and, as a result, its structure and intensity.
Keun-Ok Lee, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Lionel Lacour, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7487–7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, 2019
Short summary
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Our study is the first study to investigate the potential benefit of stable water isotopes (SWIs) in the context of a heavy precipitation event in the Mediterranean. As such, our study provides a proof of concept of the usefulness of SWI data to understand the variety of origins and moisture processes associated with air masses feeding the convection over southern Italy.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
Short summary
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Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
Short summary
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This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
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We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
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Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
Hanna Joos, Erica Madonna, Kasja Witlox, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Heini Wernli, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6243–6255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6243-2017, 2017
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The influence of pollution on the precipitation formation in warm conveyor belts (WCBs), the most rising air streams in low-pressure systems is investigated. We investigate in detail the cloud properties and resulting precipitation along these rising airstreams which are simulated with a global climate model. Overall, no big impact of aerosols on precipitation can be seen, however, when comparing the most polluted/cleanest WCBs, a suppression of precipitation by aerosols is observed.
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
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We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
P. Reutter, B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10939–10953, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10939-2015, 2015
Short summary
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In this manuscript, we investigate the exchange of air masses across the dynamical tropopause (stratosphere-troposphere exchange, STE) in the vicinity of North Atlantic cyclones. By using two 6-hourly resolved ERA-Interim climatologies of STE and cyclones from 1979 to 2011, we are able to directly compute the amount of STE in the vicinity of every individual cyclone in this time period. This enables us to provide a robust and consistent quantification of STE near North Atlantic cyclones.
M. Sprenger and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015
M. Rautenhaus, C. M. Grams, A. Schäfler, and R. Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2355-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the application of interactive 3D visualization of ensemble
weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. A method to predict 3D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of WCBs is developed and integrated into the 3D visualization tool "Met.3D", introduced in the first part of this two-paper study. A case study demonstrates the use of 3D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting.
A. Kunz, N. Spelten, P. Konopka, R. Müller, R. M. Forbes, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10803–10822, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10803-2014, 2014
P. Reutter, J. Trentmann, A. Seifert, P. Neis, H. Su, D. Chang, M. Herzog, H. Wernli, M. O. Andreae, and U. Pöschl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7573–7583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7573-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1461–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl and H. Sodemann
Clim. Past, 10, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, 2014
B. Škerlak, M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 913–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
C. Frick, A. Seifert, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1925–1939, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1925-2013, 2013
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We considered the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) to analyse the occurrence of extreme torrential episodes (≥ 200 mm in 24 h) over Catalonia (NE Iberia) during the 1951–2016 period. Principal results reveal the occurrence of 50 episodes, mainly in autumn, especially during the second 10 d period of October (11–20), coinciding with the most negative WeMOi values of the year. Seasonal changes in these episodes and in WeMOi values might be due to sea warming.
Leah Hayward, Malcolm Whitworth, Nick Pepin, and Steve Dorling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2463–2482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2463-2020, 2020
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This review article outlines the state of thunderstorm climatologies, which are underrepresented in the literature. Thunderstorms overlap with lightning and intense precipitation events, both of which create important hazards. This article compiles and evaluates information on datasets, research approaches and methodologies used in quantifying thunderstorm distribution, providing an introduction to the topic and signposting new and established researchers to research articles and datasets.
Xian Luo, Xuemei Fan, Yungang Li, and Xuan Ji
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2243–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2243-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2243-2020, 2020
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In this study, we corrected Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin using both linear and nonlinear methods, and their influences on resulting extreme precipitation indices were assessed. Results showed that all methods were able to correct mean precipitation, but their ability to correct wet-day frequency and coefficient of variation were markedly different.
Milica M. Pecelj, Milica Z. Lukić, Dejan J. Filipović, Branko M. Protić, and Uroš M. Bogdanović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2021–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2021-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2021-2020, 2020
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The variation in UTCI heat stress grade was observed during heat waves over the past 20 years in order to identify patterns of biothermal heat stress conditions in Serbia.
Very strong heat stressdescribes an alarming biothermal state and has occurred frequently in the last 10 years. The findings indicate the UTCI14 h index
very strong heat stress event(VSHSE) as an indicator of biothermal heat hazard.
Deanna Nash and Leila M. V. Carvalho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1931–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1931-2020, 2020
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On 6 March 2019, during an atmospheric river (AR) event, over 8000 lightning flashes were recorded near southern California in under 24 h, resulting in a unique meteorological event for this region. This study examines the characteristics of this AR compared to previous landfalling ARs in Santa Barbara and explores how the conditions led to the formation of hail and enhanced electrification in a region that sees little to no lightning.
Kuo Li and Gyilbag Amatus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1889–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1889-2020, 2020
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In recent years, heat waves have become more frequent in the world, e.g., in Europe, Australia, China and the US, at huge detriment to human health and natural resources. Thus we establish an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days to provide unified standards for assessing heat waves and hot years. It provides a clear picture of the evolution and spatial distribution of heat waves and hot years in China.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
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Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, Ketil Isaksen, Jens Kristian Steen Jacobsen, and Irene Brox Nilsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1847–1865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020, 2020
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We have studied changes in winter weather known to trigger road closures and isolation of small seaside communities in northern Norway. We find that snow amounts and heavy snowfall events have increased in the past, while future projections for 2040–2100 show a decrease in snow-related indices. Events of heavy water supply and zero crossings are expected to increase. Our results imply fewer dry-snow-related access disruptions in the future, while wet-snow avalanches and slushflows may increase.
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020, 2020
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
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Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Genshen Fang, Lin Zhao, Shuyang Cao, Ledong Zhu, and Yaojun Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1617-2020, 2020
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Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) damage. A TC is a moving rotating storm with a small occurrence rate at a specific site. Wind anemometers are usually damaged during strong typhoon events, making the record of observed winds an unreliable predictor for design wind speed. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the typhoon wind hazards in coastal regions of China.
Oriol Rodríguez, Joan Bech, Juan de Dios Soriano, Delia Gutiérrez, and Salvador Castán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1513–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020, 2020
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Post-event damage assessment data are used to study the consequences of natural hazards, such as strong convective winds (i.e. tornadoes, downbursts). The information gathered during fieldwork can be used to characterize those events, which is necessary to build up and maintain robust and homogeneous databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events. Accordingly, a methodology to carry out damage surveys of strong-convective-wind events is presented in this article.
Christina Kagkara, Wolfram Wobrock, Céline Planche, and Andrea I. Flossmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1469–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020, 2020
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Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km2 with more than 50 mm rain accumulation was observed during IOP7a of HyMeX. This study evaluates the performance of a bin-resolved cloud model for simulating this heavy-precipitation event. The simulation results were compared with observations of rain accumulation, radar reflectivity, temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, 5 min rain rates, and raindrop size distributions.
Diego Cerrai, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Marika Koukoula, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1463–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1463-2020, 2020
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On 1 September 2019 Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco, unleashing unprecedented destruction on the northern Bahamas. Dorian was characterized by extreme winds, extensive coastal flooding, and impressive precipitation. We studied the event through images acquired by the synthetic aperture radars (SARs) mounted on European Space Agency satellites to derive flooding maps showing the extent of the devastation. We found that the flooded area in the Bahamas was at least 3000 km2.
Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1369–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020, 2020
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We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
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Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
Marco Tedesco, Steven McAlpine, and Jeremy R. Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 907–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their impact on economy. Here, we show that value of property exposed to Hurricane Florence in September 2018 was USD 52 billion vs. USD 10 billion that would have occurred at the beginning of the 19th century due to urban expansion that increased after 1950s and the increasing number of houses built near water, showing the importance of accounting for the distribution of new buildings in risk and exposure.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-10, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany on the spatial scale of administrative districts. If information about precipitation and temperature is provided to the model, it produces the best results. Based on weather forecasts we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 hours are possible. The findings are relevant in the context of impact based warnings for road users and authorities.
James M. Done, Ming Ge, Greg J. Holland, Ioana Dima-West, Samuel Phibbs, Geoffrey R. Saville, and Yuqing Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020, 2020
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Assessing tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk is challenging due to a lack of historical TC wind data. This paper presents a novel approach to simulating landfalling TC winds anywhere on Earth. It captures local features such as high winds over coastal hills and lulls over rough terrain. A dataset of over 700 global historical wind footprints has been generated to provide new views of historical events. This dataset can be used to advance our understanding of overland TC wind risk.
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias, Paloma Esteve, Ana María Tarquis, and Alberto Garrido
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, 2020
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We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020
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The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020, 2020
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Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, 2020
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In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Philip Ward, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2855–2877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, 2019
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The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, 2019
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This work investigates the dependence between drought hazard and yield anomalies of rainfed cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula using the copula theory. The applied methodology allows us to estimate the likelihood of wheat and barley loss under drought conditions, and a dependence among extreme values is suggested. From the decision-making point of view this study aims to contribute to the mitigation of drought-related crop failure.
Sean D. Egan, Martin Stuefer, Peter W. Webley, Taryn Lopez, Catherine F. Cahill, and Marcus Hirtl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-382, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The Weather Research Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was modified to include a volcanic ash aggregation. The modified WRF-Chem model was run with and without aggregation and changes in the model output were measured. Changes in the lifetime of volcanic as a function of the chosen fractal dimension were quantified. A case study using the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull revealed that the aggregation modifications result in tephra fallout and ash concentrations near observed values.
Yoav Yair, Yifat Yair, Baruch Rubin, Ronit Confino-Cohen, Yosef Rosman, Eduardo Shachar, and Menachem Rottem
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2715–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019, 2019
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During severe thunderstorms, cold outflows can eject pollen and dust particles from the surface, releasing allergens and causing
thunderstorm asthmaepidemics in sensitive populations. We report the first case in Israel that occurred on 25 October 2015. The emergency room presentation records from three hospitals in central Israel showed a clear increase in patients with respiratory complaints immediately after the passage of a massive super-cell thunderstorm in the area.
Carlos D. Hoyos, Lina I. Ceballos, Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla, Julián Sepúlveda, Silvana M. López-Zapata, Manuel D. Zuluaga, Nicolás Velásquez, Laura Herrera-Mejía, Olver Hernández, Gisel Guzmán-Echavarría, and Mauricio Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2635–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019, 2019
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On the morning of 18 May 2015, a flash flood in the La Liboriana river basin inundated the town of Salgar, killing more than 100 people. The ultimate goal of science, regarding risk management, is to be able to reduce the number of people affected by severe storms. Our goal is to identify the meteorological conditions that led to the flood, assess the characteristics of the rainfall events before the disaster, and identify lessons for vulnerable regions settled in complex terrains.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-319, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-319, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Heavy precipitation costs yearly important losses and several people's lives in the Western Mediterranean. To predict better this phenomenon, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation, correcting the moisture distribution using GPS data. We found, for a case study in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and the humidity aloft 1.5 km.
Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt, and Deepak Vatvani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, 2019
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Tropical cyclone wind models are often used in engineering applications. However, these models lack the required accuracy when the size of the tropical cyclone is not known. In this paper, new relationships are derived to describe parameters affecting the size. These relationships are formulated using observed data and make it possible to estimate tropical cyclone size and to use this information in tropical cyclone wind models to obtain more reliable estimates of the tropical cyclone winds.
Yongqiang Liu, Lu Hao, Decheng Zhou, Cen Pan, Peilong Liu, Zhe Xiong, and Ge Sun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2281–2294, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, 2019
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A transition zone often exists between a moist upper river reach and an arid lower reach in a watershed with complex topography. This zone is more suitable for human activities but is difficult to identify in climate classification. We found that a hydrological index overpowers a meteorological index in identifying a transition zone of a watershed in northwestern China, indicating the important role of the land-surface processes and human disturbances in formulating the transition zone.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
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This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
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In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1509–1539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019, 2019
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In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization can exert a large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of the TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Guojie Wang, Guofu Wang, Jinlong Huang, and Tong Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1319–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, 2019
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Considering flood risk composed of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability from global to local scales, this paper reviews and presents increasing observed flood losses and projections of flood hazard and losses. We acknowledge existence of multiple driving factors and of considerable uncertainty, in particular with regards to projections for the future. Finally, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction from a global framework to regional and local scales.
Sorin Burcea, Roxana Cică, and Roxana Bojariu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, 2019
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The mapping of convective storms in the area of the transboundary Prut River basin was developed using a 15-year radar dataset (2003–2017). The analysis is based on data sampled in successive 6 min scans of the atmosphere, to detect and track the convective storms. The results highlighted a yearly, monthly, and daily variation of convective activity but also spatial distribution patterns. The study of atmospheric convection is important in assessing the risks associated with extreme weather.
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019
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Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, 2019
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Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote-sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of 23 vegetation types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.
Alfredo Rodríguez, David Pérez-López, Enrique Sánchez, Ana Centeno, Iñigo Gómara, Alessandro Dosio, and Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1087–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019, 2019
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Growing trees are vulnerable to cold temperatures. Fruit trees stop their growth during the coldest months of the year until meeting a required cold accumulation, specific for each tree species and variety. Under global warming, a reduction in cold accumulation in Spain is projected. This threatens the viability of some current tree crops and varieties in some areas, but other varieties with less requirements can be used. Our results allow adaptation of tree plantations to climate change.
Frank Colberg, Kathleen L. McInnes, Julian O'Grady, and Ron Hoeke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1067-2019, 2019
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This study investigates coastal sea level variability and extremes
around Australia, taking into account historical conditions and future
atmospheric changes. Modelling suggests changes in future extreme sea levels may occur. A southward movement of the subtropical ridge leads to reduced sea level extremes in many areas, while changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria are largest and positive during austral summer in two of four simulations, likely associated with changes in the northwest monsoon.
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
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Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
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A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Robin Noyelle, Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, and Edmund P. Meredith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 941–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, 2019
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This paper investigates the formation of the Mediterranean hurricane that developed between Balearic Islands and Sardinia in October 1996, with a particular focus on the influence of sea surface temperature. We show that increased sea surface temperatures lead to greater probabilities of appearance and a greater strength of the resulting hurricane, suggesting that the processes for Mediterranean hurricanes at steady state are very similar to tropical cyclones.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
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The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometre-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, and Nadia Fourrié
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 821–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019, 2019
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The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP model on predicting heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area. The positive impact of the assimilation of such data is particularly evidenced for a heavy precipitation event and results are slightly encouraging over a 45-day period. In addition, the impact of the length of the assimilation window in a 3h-3DVar assimilation system is investigated.
Dae Il Jeong, Alex J. Cannon, and Xuebin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 857–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-857-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-857-2019, 2019
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Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation leads to severe damage and failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads used to design infrastructure over North America for future periods of specified global mean temperature change using a Canadian regional climate model. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40° N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design.
Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 611–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, 2019
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We mapped – for the first time – the probability of occurrence of drought over Spain, with the overriding aim of improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures, and strategies across the region. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central areas of Spain compared to northern and eastern regions. Nevertheless, there are strong differences among drought indices and drought timescales.
Symeon Koumoutsaris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 489–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-489-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-489-2019, 2019
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Extended periods of extreme cold weather can cause severe disruptions in human societies, in terms of human health, agriculture, infrastructure, and other factors. A novel statistical model is developed in order to model these extreme cold episodes under different climate conditions. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change.
Alex J. Cannon and Silvia Innocenti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 421–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-421-2019, 2019
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Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are used as the basis for water resource infrastructure design. Given intensification of the hydrological cycle with global warming, quantitative information on the future extreme rainfall hazard is needed by practitioners. Projected changes in annual maximum rainfall in high-resolution regional climate model simulations result in IDF curves that shift upward and steepen, with greater intensification at short durations and long return periods.
Pedro Folgueras, Sebastián Solari, and Miguel Ángel Losada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 221–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-221-2019, 2019
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Directional effects are often relevant when studying the extreme values of natural agents, such as wind, waves, or currents. The use of a priori defined divisions is a common but subjective way to address the problem and may not fit data well in certain cases. In this work, a rational method is presented for the selection of directional sectors that, taking into account statistical indicators of the data, leads to the definition of independent and statistically homogeneous sectors.
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