Ground motion prediction from nearest seismogenic zones in and around Greater Cairo Area, Egypt

Abstract. This paper reviews the likely source characteristics, focal source mechanism and fault patterns of the nearest effective seismogenic zones to Greater Cairo Area. Furthermore, M_max and ground accelerations related to the effective seismic events expected in future from those seismogenic zones are well evaluated. For this purpose, the digital waveform of earthquakes than M_L=3 that occurred in and around Greater Cairo Area from 1997 to 2008 which have been recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network, are used to study source characterization, focal mechanism and fault pattern of the seismogenic zones around Greater Cairo Area. The ground motions are predicted from seismogenic zones to assess seismic hazard in the northeastern part of Greater Cairo, where three effective seismogenic zones, namely Abou Zabul, southeast Cairo trend and Dahshour area, have the largest effect to the Greater Cairo Area. The M_max was determined, based upon an empirical relationship between the seismic moment and the rupture length of the fault during the earthquake. The estimated M_max expected from Abou Zabul, southeast Cairo trend, Dahshour seismic sources are of M_w magnitudes equal to 5.4, 5.1, and 6.5, respectively. The predominant fundamental frequency and soil amplification characteristics at the area were obtained using boreholes data and in-situ ambient noise measurement.