Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-187
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-187

  01 Aug 2018

01 Aug 2018

Review status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Quantification of uncertainty in rapid estimation of earthquake fatalities based on scenario analysis

Xiaoxue Zhang1,2, Hanping Zhao1,2, Fangping Wang1,2, Zezheng Yan1,2, Sida Cai1,2, and Xiaowen Mei1,2 Xiaoxue Zhang et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
  • 2Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China

Abstract. The rapid estimation of earthquake fatalities using earthquake parameters is the core basis for emergency response. However, there are numerous factors affecting earthquake fatalities, and it is impossible to obtain an accurate estimation result. The key to solve this problem is quantifying the uncertainty. In this paper, we proposed a new method to estimate earthquake fatalities and quantify the uncertainty based on basic earthquake emergency scenarios. The accuracy of the model is verified by earthquake that occurred during recent year. The preliminary analysis and comparison results show that the model is more effective and reasonable and can also provide a theoretical basis for post-earthquake emergency response.

Xiaoxue Zhang et al.

 
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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Xiaoxue Zhang et al.

Xiaoxue Zhang et al.

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Short summary
This study proposed a new method to estimate earthquake fatalities and quantify the uncertainty based on the basic earthquake emergency scenarios. The basic earthquake emergency scenarios are constructed by the main factors, which affecting the earthquake fatalities. We verified the accuracy of the model with the earthquake that occurred during recent year, and compared the accuracy with other two models.
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