Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-811-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-811-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 17 Feb 2026
| 17 Feb 2026
Numerical modelling framework for assessing dune effectiveness against coastal inundation
Italo dos Reis Lopes
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Augusto Righi” (DIFA) – Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna (UNIBO), Bologna, Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Ivan Federico
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Michalis Vousdoukas
University of the Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences, Mytilene, Greece
Luisa Perini
Area Geologia, Suoli e Sismica – Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 40127, Italy
Salvatore Causio
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Giovanni Coppini
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Maurilio Milella
Environmental Surveys S.r.l. (ENSU), Spin off University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, 70125, Italy
Nadia Pinardi
Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Augusto Righi” (DIFA) – Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna (UNIBO), Bologna, Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Lorenzo Mentaschi
Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Augusto Righi” (DIFA) – Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna (UNIBO), Bologna, Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Francesco Maicu, Seimur Shirinov, Charikleia L. G. Oikonomou, Vitalii Sharmar, Lucia Gualtieri, Anna Chiara Goglio, Ehsan Sadighrad, Dimitra Denaxa, Aimie Moulin, Bethany McDonagh, Salvatore Causio, Emanuela Clementi, Gerasimos Korres, Ivan Federico, and Enrico Scoccimarro
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-12, 2026
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
In January 2026, an exceptional storm brought record waves, flooding, and strong currents to the Mediterranean Sea. To understand its coastal impact, we combined data from Europe's ocean monitoring service with a detailed coastal computer model, tracking the storm from open sea to shore. We found unusually high waves, raised sea levels, and strong changes in currents and saltiness. Combining wide-area forecasts with local models improves flood prediction, supporting earlier coastal warning.
Anna Chiara Goglio, Emanuela Clementi, Nadia Pinardi, Giulio Boccaletti, Paolo Oddo, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4734, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Venice, one of the world's most famous cities, is threatened by flooding, locally known as Acqua Alta. Based on numerical results from the Copernicus Marine Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting System, we investigate each process involved in the dynamics of these events to improve their predictability. For the first time, we identify processes occurring within the water column that contribute to the sea level peak, providing new insight into the understanding and modeling of Acqua Alta events.
Archit Shirish Wadalkar, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, Vitali Sharmar, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Salvatore Causio, Ivan Federico, Giovanni Coppini, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-598, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-598, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global hazard-oriented dataset of storm surges and significant wave heights, including bulk and spectral peak wave parameters, spanning 1950–2023 on a high-resolution in coastal areas. Significant wave heights are bias-corrected using satellite altimetry, while storm surges are derived from sea surface heights through frequency-based filtering. The dataset is tailor made for regional downscaling and assessment of compound-events for multi hazard mapping.
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3683–3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3683-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3683-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the ability of machine learning emulators, from Multivariate Linear Regression to Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to reproduce storm surge dynamics in the northern Adriatic Sea. Using the corrected Mean Absolute Deviation squared (MADc²) loss function, we demonstrate that data-driven models can match high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations in representing extreme surge events with greatly reduced computational cost.
Milad Niroumand-Jadidi, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Sonia Silvestri
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIX-B3-2026, 825–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIX-B3-2026-825-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIX-B3-2026-825-2026, 2026
Anna Chiara Goglio, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Paolo Oddo, Emanuela Clementi, and Federica Borile
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2026-7, 2026
Preprint under review for SP
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean coastal communities are increasingly threatened by extreme sea level events. We built an indicator combining model and observed data to summarize their changes. The analysis of their evolution revealed that the associated hazard is rising along the entire coastline, especially in the northern Adriatic, the Aegean Sea, and along Turkish and Cypriot coasts. This trend is mostly driven by sea level rise, except for the Adriatic Sea, where strong storm effects play a bigger role.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 5601–5622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5601-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5601-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The parameters that control a model's behavior determine its ability to represent a system. In this work, multiple cases test how to estimate the parameters of a model with components corresponding to both the physics and the chemical and biological processes (i.e. the biogeochemistry) of the ocean. While demonstrating how to approach this problem type, the results show estimating both sets of parameters simultaneously is better than estimating the physics then the biogeochemistry separately.
Mohammad Hadi Bahmanpour, Alois Tilloy, Michalis Vousdoukas, Ivan Federico, Giovanni Coppini, Luc Feyen, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 2301–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2301-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2301-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
As natural hazards evolve, understanding how extreme events interact over time is crucial. While single extremes have been widely studied, joint extremes remain challenging to analyze. We present a framework that combines advanced statistical modeling with copula theory to capture changing dependencies. Applying it to historical data reveals dynamic patterns in extreme events. To support broader use, we provide an open-source tool for improved hazard assessment.
Rita Lecci, Robyn Gwee, Kun Yan, Sanne Muis, Nadia Pinardi, Jun She, Martin Verlaan, Simona Masina, Wenshan Li, Hui Wang, Salvatore Causio, Antonio Novellino, Marco Alba, Etiënne Kras, Sandra Gaytan Aguilar, and Jan-Bart Calewaert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1767–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study explored how sea level is changing along the China-Europe Sea Route. By combining satellite and in-situ observations with advanced modeling, the research identified ongoing sea level rise and an increasing frequency of extreme water level events in some regions. These findings underscore the importance of continued monitoring and provide useful knowledge to support long-term planning, coastal resilience, and informed decision-making.
Jacopo Alessandri, Giulia Bonino, Tomas Lovato, Momme Butenschön, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Giorgia Verri, Ivan Federico, and Nadia Pinardi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1119, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal seas are strongly shaped by complex coastlines, shallow depths, and inputs from rivers, which influence marine life and water quality. This study introduces a new high-resolution modelling system that combines ocean circulation and marine ecosystem processes on unstructured grids. Applied to the northern Adriatic Sea, the model realistically captures seasonal changes in key biogeochemical variables, offering improved tools to support coastal environmental management.
Simona Masina, Andrea Cipollone, Doroteaciro Iovino, Stefania Ciliberti, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretí, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Giovanni Coppini, and Emanuela Clementi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-887, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents GOFS16, an eddy-resolving global operational ocean and sea ice forecasting system which provides 6-day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents, sea level, and sea ice properties. The system assimilates satellite and in situ observations using a 3D variational data assimilation scheme. Validation is conducted routinely using global and regional metrics. Results indicate that GOFS16 performs within the expected range of skill for current global systems.
Mahmud Hasan Ghani, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Silvia Bianconcini, Francesco Maicu, and Francesco Trotta
Ocean Sci., 22, 427–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-427-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-427-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Using the same sea surface temperature and the same bulk formula but different atmospheric reanalysis and analysis surface-variable datasets, we show that a higher-resolution dataset is crucial for evaluating the heat-budget closure hypothesis in the Mediterranean Sea. For the first time, we investigate the impact of extreme heat-loss events in the Mediterranean Sea by computing the long-term, basin-averaged mean heat budget.
Paolo Oddo, Mario Adani, Francesco Carere, Andrea Cipollone, Anna Chiara Goglio, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesca Mele, Italo Epicoco, Jenny Pistoia, Emanuela Clementi, Nadia Pinardi, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 423–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study present a data assimilation system that combines ocean observational data with ocean model results to better understand the ocean and predict its future state. The method uses a three dimensional incremental variational approach focusing on the physical relationships between all the state vector variables errors. Testing in the Mediterranean Sea showed that a complex sea level operator based on a barotropic model works best.
Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Simone Bonamano, Salvatore Causio, Nicolás Biocca, Viviana Piermattei, Daniele Piazzolla, Jacopo Alessandri, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Giovanni Coppini, Marco Marcelli, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3737–3758, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3737-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This research investigates how seagrass meadows attenuate coastal waves. Our methodology integrates site measurements with numerical simulations, revealing that plant flexibility and seasonal growth cycles are crucial factors that enhance model fidelity for predicting wave damping. These insights aid ecosystem-based coastal protection and conservation of these vital habitats. Future work should address current–sediment–vegetation interactions for a more complete hydrodynamic understanding.
Salvatore Causio, Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Giovanni De Cillis, Emanuela Clementi, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Giovanni Coppini
Ocean Sci., 21, 1105–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how waves and ocean currents interact during severe weather, focusing on Medicane Ianos, one of the strongest storms in the Mediterranean. Using advanced modeling, we created a unique system to simulate these interactions, capturing effects like wave-induced water levels and wave-induced effects on the vertical structure of the ocean. We validated our approach with ideal tests and real data from the storm.
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Jacopo Alessandri, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Francesco Ferrari, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1513–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show the development of high-resolution simulations of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea employing different atmospheric forcing data and physical configurations. Traditional metrics favor a simulation forced by a coarser database and employing a less sophisticated setup. Closer examination allows us to identify a baroclinic model forced by a high-resolution dataset as being better able to capture the variability and peak values of the storm surge.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Nadia Pinardi, Bart van den Hurk, Michael Depuydt, Thorsten Kiefer, Petra Manderscheid, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, and Kanika Singh
State Planet, 3-slre1, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (KH-SLR), a joint effort between JPI Climate and JPI Oceans, addresses the critical need for science-based information on sea level changes in Europe. The KH-SLR actively involves stakeholders through a co-design process discussing the impacts, adaptation planning, and policy requirements related to SLR in Europe. Its primary output is the KH Assessment Report (KH-AR), which is described in this volume.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion and emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Roberta Benincasa, Giovanni Liguori, Nadia Pinardi, and Hans von Storch
Ocean Sci., 20, 1003–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean dynamics result from the interplay of internal processes and external inputs, primarily from the atmosphere. It is crucial to discern between these factors to gauge the ocean's intrinsic predictability and to be able to attribute a signal under study to either external factors or internal variability. Employing a simple analysis, we successfully characterized this variability in the Mediterranean Sea and compared it with the oceanic response induced by atmospheric conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3433–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure, and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here, we provide 80 indicators of this kind at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
Ocean Sci., 19, 1483–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Leonardo Lima, Salvatore Causio, Mehmet Ilicak, Ronan McAdam, and Eric Jansen
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have revealed an increase in the ocean temperature and heat content in the Black Sea, where the research on marine heat waves (MHWs) is still incipient. Our study reveals long-lasting MHWs and interesting connections between surface and subsurface MHWs in the Black Sea. Our analysis is a starting point to create a monitoring system of MHWs for the Black Sea.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Giorgio Micaletto, Ivano Barletta, Silvia Mocavero, Ivan Federico, Italo Epicoco, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Pasquale Schiano, Giovanni Aloisio, and Nadia Pinardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The full exploitation of supercomputing architectures requires a deep revision of the current climate models. This paper presents the parallelization of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules). Optimized numerical libraries were used to partition the model domain and solve the sparse linear system of equations in parallel. The performance assessment demonstrates a good level of scalability with a realistic configuration used as a benchmark.
Cited articles
Almarshed, B., Figlus, J., Miller, J., and Verhagen, H. J.: Innovative Coastal Risk Reduction through Hybrid Design: Combining Sand Cover and Structural Defenses, J. Coast. Res., 36, 174–188, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-18-00078.1, 2020.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., Valentini, A., and Masina, M.: Critical storm thresholds for significant morphological changes and damage along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy, Geomorphology, 143–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.09.006, 2012.
Armaroli, C., Duo, E., and Viavattene, C.: From Hazard to Consequences: Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Flooding Along the Emilia-Romagna Coastline, Italy, Front. Earth Sci. (Lausanne), 7, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00203, 2019.
Bates, P. D. and De Roo, A. P. J.: A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation, J. Hydrol. (Amst), 236, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00278-X, 2000.
Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., and Fewtrell, T. J.: A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling, J. Hydrol. (Amst), 387, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027, 2010.
Bertin, X., Li, K., Roland, A., Zhang, Y. J., Breilh, J. F., and Chaumillon, E.: A modeling-based analysis of the flooding associated with Xynthia, central Bay of Biscay, Coastal Engineering, 94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.08.013, 2014.
Bertoni, D., Biagioni, C., Sarti, G., Ciccarelli, D., and Ruocco, M.: The role of sediment grain-size, mineralogy, and beach morphology on plant communities of two Mediterranean coastal dune systems, Italian Journal of Geosciences, 133, https://doi.org/10.3301/IJG.2014.09, 2014.
Bessar, M. A., Choné, G., Lavoie, A., Buffin-Bélanger, T., Biron, P. M., Matte, P., and Anctil, F.: Comparative analysis of local and large-scale approaches to floodplain mapping: a case study of the Chaudière River, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 46, https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2021.1961610, 2021.
Bonneton, P.: Energy and dissipation spectra of waves propagating in the inner surf zone, J. Fluid Mech., 977, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2023.878, 2023.
Carisi, F., Schröter, K., Domeneghetti, A., Kreibich, H., and Castellarin, A.: Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018.
Carneiro-Barros, J. E., Plomaritis, T. A., Fazeres-Ferradosa, T., Rosa-Santos, P., and Taveira-Pinto, F.: Coastal Flood Mapping with Two Approaches Based on Observations at Furadouro, Northern Portugal, Remote Sens (Basel), 15, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15215215, 2023.
Ciavola, P., Perini, L., Luciani, P., and Armaroli, C.: Il rilievo Lidar della costa dell'Emilia-Romagna: uno strumento per la valutazione dell'impatto delle mareggiate sulle zone costiere e per la caratterizzazione della morfodinamica della spiaggia, Hydrogeo., 2006.
Ciavola, P., Armaroli, C., Chiggiato, J., Valentini, A., Deserti, M., Perini, L., and Luciani, P.: Impact of storms along the coastline of Emilia-Romagna: The morphological signature on the Ravenna coastline (Italy), J. Coast. Res., https://doi.org/10.2112/jcr-si50-103.1, 2007.
De Falco, G., Simeone, S., Conforti, A., Brambilla, W., and Molinaroli, E.: Compatibility between Continental Shelf Deposits and Sediments of Adjacent Beaches along Western Sardinia (Mediterranean Sea), Water (Switzerland), 14, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233971, 2022.
Didier, D., Baudry, J., Bernatchez, P., Dumont, D., Sadegh, M., Bismuth, E., Bandet, M., Dugas, S., and Sévigny, C.: Multihazard simulation for coastal flood mapping: Bathtub versus numerical modelling in an open estuary, Eastern Canada, J. Flood Risk Manag., 12, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12505, 2019.
Dottori, F., Alfieri, L., Bianchi, A., Skoien, J., and Salamon, P.: A new dataset of river flood hazard maps for Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1549–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, 2022.
Duo, E., Chris Trembanis, A., Dohner, S., Grottoli, E., and Ciavola, P.: Local-scale post-event assessments with GPS and UAV-based quick-response surveys: A pilot case from the Emilia-Romagna (Italy) coast, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2969-2018, 2018.
European Environmental Agency (EEA): European Climate Risk Assessment. Executive summary, EEA Report 01/2024, The European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA), https://doi.org/10.2800/8671471, 2024.
Geertsen, K.-S., Piontkowitz, T., Merino, M., Gruppe, C., Larsen, R., Leijnse, T., van Dongeren, A., Kortenhaus, A., Karl-Søren, G., Thorsten, P., Marta, M., Christoffer, G., Rie, L., Tim, L., DONGEREN Ap, V., and Andreas, K.: Developing a national model for calculating dike failures and related floods in Denmark, Caen, France, https://hal.science/hal-04705556v1 (last access: 31 December 2025), 2024.
Grasso, F., Michallet, H., and Barthélemy, E.: Sediment transport associated with morphological beach changes forced by irregular asymmetric, skewed waves, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006550, 2011.
Harley, M. D. and Ciavola, P.: Managing local coastal inundation risk using real-time forecasts and artificial dune placements, Coastal Engineering, 77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.02.006, 2013.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B. R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M., and Waterfield, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001, 2018.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, 3–32, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001, 2021.
Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Melet, A., and Armaroli, C.: Towards a pan-European coastal flood awareness system: Skill of extreme sea-level forecasts from the Copernicus Marine Service, Front. Mar. Sci., 9, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1091844, 2023.
Lopes, I. and Lorenzo, M.: menta78/LISFLOOD-FP-unibo: Model and simulations from Lopes et al. 2026, in: Natural Hazard And Earth System Sciences (v8.0.3_lopes2026_0.0.1), Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18377755, 2026.
Leaman, C. K., Harley, M. D., Splinter, K. D., Thran, M. C., Kinsela, M. A., and Turner, I. L.: A storm hazard matrix combining coastal flooding and beach erosion, Coastal Engineering, 170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2021.104001, 2021.
Le Gal, M., Fernández-Montblanc, T., Duo, E., Montes Perez, J., Cabrita, P., Souto Ceccon, P., Gastal, V., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023.
Leijnse, T., van Ormondt, M., Nederhoff, K., and van Dongeren, A.: Modeling compound flooding in coastal systems using a computationally efficient reduced-physics solver: Including fluvial, pluvial, tidal, wind- and wave-driven processes, Coastal Engineering, 163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103796, 2021.
Martinelli, L., Zanuttigh, B., and Corbau, C.: Assessment of coastal flooding hazard along the Emilia Romagna littoral, IT, Coastal Engineering, 57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.06.007, 2010.
Medvedev, I. P., Vilibić, I., and Rabinovich, A. B.: Tidal Resonance in the Adriatic Sea: Observational Evidence, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016168, 2020.
Melet, A., Meyssignac, B., Almar, R., and Le Cozannet, G.: Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Chang., 8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0088-y, 2018.
Mentaschi, L., Vousdoukas, M. I., García-Sánchez, G., Fernández-Montblanc, T., Roland, A., Voukouvalas, E., Federico, I., Abdolali, A., Zhang, Y. J., and Feyen, L.: A global unstructured, coupled, high-resolution hindcast of waves and storm surge, Front Mar. Sci., 10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1233679, 2023.
Nativi, S., Craglia, M., and Delipetrev, B.: Destination Earth: survey on “Digital Twins” technologies and activities, in the Green Deal area, Publications Office of the European Union, https://doi.org/10.2760/430025, 2020.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., and Luciani, P.: Coastal flood risk in Emilia-Romagna (Italy): the sea storm of February 2015, Coastal and Maritime Mediterranean Conf., 3rd edition, 225–230, https://doi.org/10.5150/cmcm.2015.044, 2015.
Pillai, U. P. A., Pinardi, N., Alessandri, J., Federico, I., Causio, S., Unguendoli, S., Valentini, A., and Staneva, J.: A Digital Twin modelling framework for the assessment of seagrass Nature Based Solutions against storm surges, Science of the Total Environment, 847, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157603, 2022.
Shaw, J., Kesserwani, G., Neal, J., Bates, P., and Sharifian, M. K.: LISFLOOD-FP 8.0: the new discontinuous Galerkin shallow-water solver for multi-core CPUs and GPUs, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3577–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3577-2021, 2021.
Shustikova, I., Neal, J. C., Domeneghetti, A., Bates, P. D., Vorogushyn, S., and Castellarin, A.: Levee breaching: A new extension to the LISFLOOD-FP model, Water (Switzerland), 12, https://doi.org/10.3390/W12040942, 2020.
Singhvi, A., Luijendijk, A. P., and van Oudenhoven, A. P. E.: The grey–green spectrum: A review of coastal protection interventions, J. Environ. Manag., 311, 114824, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114824, 2022.
Smith, R. A. E., Bates, P. D., and Hayes, C.: Evaluation of a coastal flood inundation model using hard and soft data, Environmental Modelling and Software, 30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.11.008, 2012.
Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger, A. H.: Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coastal Engineering, 53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12.005, 2006.
Suntoyo, Tanaka, H., and Sana, A.: Characteristics of turbulent boundary layers over a rough bed under saw-tooth waves and its application to sediment transport, Coastal Engineering, 55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.04.007, 2008.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction: The human cost of disasters: an overview of the last 20 years (2000–2019), Human Cost of Disasters, https://doi.org/10.18356/79b92774-en, 2020.
van Rijn, L. C.: Prediction of dune erosion due to storms, Coastal Engineering, 56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.10.006, 2009.
van Wiechen, P. P. J., de Vries, S., Reniers, A. J. H. M., and Aarninkhof, S. G. J.: Dune erosion during storm surges: A review of the observations, physics and modelling of the collision regime, Coastal Engineering, 186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2023.104383, 2023.
Vousdoukas, M. I.: Erosion/accretion patterns and multiple beach cusp systems on a meso-tidal, steeply-sloping beach, Geomorphology, 141–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.12.003, 2012.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Dottori, F., Giardino, A., Bouziotas, D., Bianchi, A., Salamon, P., and Feyen, L.: Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1841–1853, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016, 2016.
Wijnberg, K., Poppema, D., Mulder, J., van Bergen, J., Campmans, G., Galiforni-Silva, F., Hulscher, S., and Pourteimouri, P.: Beach-dune modelling in support of Building with Nature for an integrated spatial design of urbanized sandy shores, Research in Urbanism Series, 7, https://doi.org/10.47982/rius.7.136, 2021.
Williams, L. L. and Lück-Vogel, M.: Comparative assessment of the GIS based bathtub model and an enhanced bathtub model for coastal inundation, J. Coast Conserv., 24, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-020-00735-x, 2020.
Wilmink, R., McCall, R., Santen, R. Van, Kuik, N. van, Pluis, S., Bakker, A. de, and Steetzel, H.: XBEACH IMPLEMENTATION IN THE NEW NATIONAL COASTAL FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR THE DUTCH COAST, Coastal Engineering Proceedings, https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v37.management.46, 2023.
Xie, Y., Dang, X., Zhou, Y., Hou, Z., Li, X., Jiang, H., Zhou, D., Wang, J., Hai, C., and Zhou, R.: Using sediment grain size characteristics to assess effectiveness of mechanical sand barriers in reducing erosion, Sci. Rep., 10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71053-3, 2020.
Zhang, Y. and Najafi, M. R.: Probabilistic Numerical Modeling of Compound Flooding Caused by Tropical Storm Matthew Over a Data-Scarce Coastal Environment, Water Resour. Res., 56, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028565, 2020.
Short summary
We improved a computer model to simulate coastal flooding by including temporary barriers like sand dunes. We tested it where sand dunes are built seasonally to protect the shoreline for two real storms: one that broke through the dunes and another where dunes held strong. Our model showed how important it is to design these defenses carefully since even if a small part of a dune fails, a major flooding can happen. Overall, our work helps create better tools to manage and protect coastal areas.
We improved a computer model to simulate coastal flooding by including temporary barriers like...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint