Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-811-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-811-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 17 Feb 2026
| 17 Feb 2026
Numerical modelling framework for assessing dune effectiveness against coastal inundation
Italo dos Reis Lopes
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Augusto Righi” (DIFA) – Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna (UNIBO), Bologna, Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Ivan Federico
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Michalis Vousdoukas
University of the Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences, Mytilene, Greece
Luisa Perini
Area Geologia, Suoli e Sismica – Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 40127, Italy
Salvatore Causio
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Giovanni Coppini
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Maurilio Milella
Environmental Surveys S.r.l. (ENSU), Spin off University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, 70125, Italy
Nadia Pinardi
Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Augusto Righi” (DIFA) – Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna (UNIBO), Bologna, Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
Lorenzo Mentaschi
Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Augusto Righi” (DIFA) – Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna (UNIBO), Bologna, Italy
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
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Mohammad Hadi Bahmanpour, Alois Tilloy, Michalis Vousdoukas, Ivan Federico, Giovanni Coppini, Luc Feyen, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 2301–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2301-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2301-2026, 2026
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As natural hazards evolve, understanding how extreme events interact over time is crucial. While single extremes have been widely studied, joint extremes remain challenging to analyze. We present a framework that combines advanced statistical modeling with copula theory to capture changing dependencies. Applying it to historical data reveals dynamic patterns in extreme events. To support broader use, we provide an open-source tool for improved hazard assessment.
Rita Lecci, Robyn Gwee, Kun Yan, Sanne Muis, Nadia Pinardi, Jun She, Martin Verlaan, Simona Masina, Wenshan Li, Hui Wang, Salvatore Causio, Antonio Novellino, Marco Alba, Etiënne Kras, Sandra Gaytan Aguilar, and Jan-Bart Calewaert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1767–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, 2026
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This study explored how sea level is changing along the China-Europe Sea Route. By combining satellite and in-situ observations with advanced modeling, the research identified ongoing sea level rise and an increasing frequency of extreme water level events in some regions. These findings underscore the importance of continued monitoring and provide useful knowledge to support long-term planning, coastal resilience, and informed decision-making.
Jacopo Alessandri, Giulia Bonino, Tomas Lovato, Momme Butenschön, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Giorgia Verri, Ivan Federico, and Nadia Pinardi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1119, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Coastal seas are strongly shaped by complex coastlines, shallow depths, and inputs from rivers, which influence marine life and water quality. This study introduces a new high-resolution modelling system that combines ocean circulation and marine ecosystem processes on unstructured grids. Applied to the northern Adriatic Sea, the model realistically captures seasonal changes in key biogeochemical variables, offering improved tools to support coastal environmental management.
Simona Masina, Andrea Cipollone, Doroteaciro Iovino, Stefania Ciliberti, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretí, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Giovanni Coppini, and Emanuela Clementi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-887, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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The paper presents GOFS16, an eddy-resolving global operational ocean and sea ice forecasting system which provides 6-day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents, sea level, and sea ice properties. The system assimilates satellite and in situ observations using a 3D variational data assimilation scheme. Validation is conducted routinely using global and regional metrics. Results indicate that GOFS16 performs within the expected range of skill for current global systems.
Mahmud Hasan Ghani, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Silvia Bianconcini, Francesco Maicu, and Francesco Trotta
Ocean Sci., 22, 427–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-427-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-427-2026, 2026
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Using the same sea surface temperature and the same bulk formula but different atmospheric reanalysis and analysis surface-variable datasets, we show that a higher-resolution dataset is crucial for evaluating the heat-budget closure hypothesis in the Mediterranean Sea. For the first time, we investigate the impact of extreme heat-loss events in the Mediterranean Sea by computing the long-term, basin-averaged mean heat budget.
Paolo Oddo, Mario Adani, Francesco Carere, Andrea Cipollone, Anna Chiara Goglio, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesca Mele, Italo Epicoco, Jenny Pistoia, Emanuela Clementi, Nadia Pinardi, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 423–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, 2026
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This study present a data assimilation system that combines ocean observational data with ocean model results to better understand the ocean and predict its future state. The method uses a three dimensional incremental variational approach focusing on the physical relationships between all the state vector variables errors. Testing in the Mediterranean Sea showed that a complex sea level operator based on a barotropic model works best.
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5313, 2025
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We assess the ability of machine learning emulators, from Multivariate Linear Regression to Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to reproduce storm surge dynamics in the northern Adriatic Sea. Using the corrected Mean Absolute Deviation squared (MADc²) loss function, we demonstrate that data-driven models can match high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations in representing extreme surge events with greatly reduced computational cost.
Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Simone Bonamano, Salvatore Causio, Nicolás Biocca, Viviana Piermattei, Daniele Piazzolla, Jacopo Alessandri, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Giovanni Coppini, Marco Marcelli, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3737–3758, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3737-2025, 2025
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This research investigates how seagrass meadows attenuate coastal waves. Our methodology integrates site measurements with numerical simulations, revealing that plant flexibility and seasonal growth cycles are crucial factors that enhance model fidelity for predicting wave damping. These insights aid ecosystem-based coastal protection and conservation of these vital habitats. Future work should address current–sediment–vegetation interactions for a more complete hydrodynamic understanding.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3795, 2025
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The parameters that control a model's behavior determine its ability to represent a system. In this work, multiple cases test how to estimate the parameters of a model with components corresponding to both the physics and the chemical and biological processes (i.e. the biogeochemistry) of the ocean. While demonstrating how to approach this problem type, the results show estimating both sets of parameters simultaneously is better than estimating the physics then the biogeochemistry separately.
Salvatore Causio, Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Giovanni De Cillis, Emanuela Clementi, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Giovanni Coppini
Ocean Sci., 21, 1105–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, 2025
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This study examines how waves and ocean currents interact during severe weather, focusing on Medicane Ianos, one of the strongest storms in the Mediterranean. Using advanced modeling, we created a unique system to simulate these interactions, capturing effects like wave-induced water levels and wave-induced effects on the vertical structure of the ocean. We validated our approach with ideal tests and real data from the storm.
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Jacopo Alessandri, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Francesco Ferrari, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1513–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, 2024
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Here we show the development of high-resolution simulations of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea employing different atmospheric forcing data and physical configurations. Traditional metrics favor a simulation forced by a coarser database and employing a less sophisticated setup. Closer examination allows us to identify a baroclinic model forced by a high-resolution dataset as being better able to capture the variability and peak values of the storm surge.
José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
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The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion and emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Nadia Pinardi, Bart van den Hurk, Michael Depuydt, Thorsten Kiefer, Petra Manderscheid, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, and Kanika Singh
State Planet, 3-slre1, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, 2024
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The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (KH-SLR), a joint effort between JPI Climate and JPI Oceans, addresses the critical need for science-based information on sea level changes in Europe. The KH-SLR actively involves stakeholders through a co-design process discussing the impacts, adaptation planning, and policy requirements related to SLR in Europe. Its primary output is the KH Assessment Report (KH-AR), which is described in this volume.
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
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Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
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Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Roberta Benincasa, Giovanni Liguori, Nadia Pinardi, and Hans von Storch
Ocean Sci., 20, 1003–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, 2024
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Ocean dynamics result from the interplay of internal processes and external inputs, primarily from the atmosphere. It is crucial to discern between these factors to gauge the ocean's intrinsic predictability and to be able to attribute a signal under study to either external factors or internal variability. Employing a simple analysis, we successfully characterized this variability in the Mediterranean Sea and compared it with the oceanic response induced by atmospheric conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Maarten Pronk, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3433–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3433-2024, 2024
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The shape of the coast, the intensity of waves, the height of the water levels, the presence of people or critical infrastructure, and the land use are important information to assess the vulnerability of the coast to coastal hazards. Here, we provide 80 indicators of this kind at consistent locations along the global ice-free coastline using open-access global datasets. These can be valuable for quick assessments of the vulnerability of the coast and at data-poor locations.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
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Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
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Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Giovanni Coppini, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Gerasimos Korres, Michalis Ravdas, Rita Lecci, Jenny Pistoia, Anna Chiara Goglio, Massimiliano Drudi, Alessandro Grandi, Ali Aydogdu, Romain Escudier, Andrea Cipollone, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Antonio Mariani, Sergio Cretì, Francesco Palermo, Matteo Scuro, Simona Masina, Nadia Pinardi, Antonio Navarra, Damiano Delrosso, Anna Teruzzi, Valeria Di Biagio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Gianluca Coidessa, Carolina Amadio, Alberto Brosich, Arnau Miró, Eva Alvarez, Paolo Lazzari, Cosimo Solidoro, Charikleia Oikonomou, and Anna Zacharioudaki
Ocean Sci., 19, 1483–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023, 2023
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The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
Leonardo Lima, Salvatore Causio, Mehmet Ilicak, Ronan McAdam, and Eric Jansen
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2023-19, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Recent studies have revealed an increase in the ocean temperature and heat content in the Black Sea, where the research on marine heat waves (MHWs) is still incipient. Our study reveals long-lasting MHWs and interesting connections between surface and subsurface MHWs in the Black Sea. Our analysis is a starting point to create a monitoring system of MHWs for the Black Sea.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
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Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Giorgio Micaletto, Ivano Barletta, Silvia Mocavero, Ivan Federico, Italo Epicoco, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Pasquale Schiano, Giovanni Aloisio, and Nadia Pinardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, 2022
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The full exploitation of supercomputing architectures requires a deep revision of the current climate models. This paper presents the parallelization of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules). Optimized numerical libraries were used to partition the model domain and solve the sparse linear system of equations in parallel. The performance assessment demonstrates a good level of scalability with a realistic configuration used as a benchmark.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
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In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Katherine M. Smith, Skyler Kern, Peter E. Hamlington, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Emily F. Klee, and Kyle E. Niemeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2419–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, 2021
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We present a newly developed reduced-order biogeochemical flux model that is complex and flexible enough to capture open-ocean ecosystem dynamics but reduced enough to incorporate into highly resolved numerical simulations with limited additional computational cost. The model provides improved correlations between model output and field data, indicating that significant improvements in the reproduction of real-world data can be achieved with a small number of variables.
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Short summary
We improved a computer model to simulate coastal flooding by including temporary barriers like sand dunes. We tested it where sand dunes are built seasonally to protect the shoreline for two real storms: one that broke through the dunes and another where dunes held strong. Our model showed how important it is to design these defenses carefully since even if a small part of a dune fails, a major flooding can happen. Overall, our work helps create better tools to manage and protect coastal areas.
We improved a computer model to simulate coastal flooding by including temporary barriers like...
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