Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5647-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5647-2026
Research article
 | 
05 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 05 Nov 2026

Towards improved integration of hydrological uncertainty and hydraulic model sensitivity in flood hazard mapping

Simon Rusjan, Jasna Donevska, and Matjaž Mikoš

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Cited articles

Agopian, A., Hino, M., Siders, A. R., Samoray, C., and Mach, K. J.: A Nationwide Analysis of Community-Level Floodplain Development Outcomes and Key Influences, Earth's Future, 12, e2024EF004585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004585, 2024. 
Aitken, G., Beevers, L., and Christie, M. A.: Advanced Uncertainty Quantification for Flood Inundation Modelling, Water, 16, 1309, https://doi.org/10.3390/w16091309, 2024. 
Alfonso, L., Mukolwe, M., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information, Water Resour. Res., 52, 1026–1043, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015wr017378, 2016. 
Annis, A., Nardi, F., Volpi, E., and Fiori, A.: Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps, Hydrol. Sci. J., 65, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1709640, 2020. 
Apel, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A. H.: Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments, Int. J. River Basin Manag., 6, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635344, 2008. 
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Short summary
Flood hazard maps often show a single "line" of inundation, but the real flooded area can change because inputs are uncertain and flood conditions evolve over time. We tested how the flood hazard maps change when the characteristics of floods varies and when the hydraulic conditions of river channel and floodplains change. We show that channel changes can substantially enlarge flood‑prone areas, and we provide a supporting map of where flooding is most likely to guide safer land‑use planning.
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