Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4177-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4177-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Aug 2026
Research article |
| 28 Aug 2026
| 28 Aug 2026
Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessments of the area comprised between west Gulf of Cádiz and east Alboran Sea
Adrián José Rosario Beltré
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geological and Mining Engineering, Higher Technical School of Mines and Energy, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Ríos Rosas 21, 28003 Madrid, Spain
Department of Geological Resources for the Ecological Transition, Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), La Calera 1, 28760 Tres Cantos (Madrid), Spain
Carlos Paredes Bartolomé
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geological and Mining Engineering, Higher Technical School of Mines and Energy, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Ríos Rosas 21, 28003 Madrid, Spain
Miguel Llorente Isidro
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geological Risk and Climatic Change, Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Rios Rosas 23, 28003 Madrid, Spain
Related authors
No articles found.
Carlos Paredes, Inés Santalices, Celia Sanchíz, and Miguel Angel Ropero
The Cryosphere, 20, 3847–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3847-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3847-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses multidecadal coastal bluff erosion at Deception Island, Antarctica, using historical aerial and satellite imagery (1956–2023). A non-linear shoreline change approach reveals heterogeneous and accelerating recession patterns. Logistic sigmoidal models outperform traditional linear methods, offering improved insights into periglacial coastal dynamics under climate change.
Adrián José Rosario Beltré, Carlos Paredes Bartolomé, and Miguel Llorente Isidro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-52, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The Ibero-Maghrebian region has been the scene of major natural disasters that have been devastating for the coasts of the southern Iberian Peninsula and North Africa. In our study, we carried out a DSHA in the marine strip between the W of the Gulf of Cádiz and the E of the Alboran Sea, and the results show that PGA values of up to 1.0 g have been reached in certain areas, making them potential tsunamigenic or submarine landslide sources.
Cited articles
AEIS-IGN: Seminario sobre criterios sísmicos para centrales nucleares y obras públicas: Madrid, 29–30 de marzo de 1978, Asoc. Esp. Ing. Sísmica AEIS Inst. Geográfico Nac. IGN, http://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=8885840 (last access: 25 August 2026), 1979.
Ang, A. H. S. and Tang, W. H.: Probability Concepts in Engineering: Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2nd edn., John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 406 pp., ISBN 9780471720645, 2007.
Atik, L. A., Abrahamson, N., Bommer, J. J., Scherbaum, F., Cotton, F., and Kuehn, N.: The Variability of Ground-Motion Prediction Models and Its Components, Seismol. Res. Lett., 81, 794–801, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.5.794, 2010.
Ayadi, A. and Bezzeghoud, M.: Seismicity of Algeria from 1365 to 2013: Maximum Observed Intensity Map (MOI2014), Seismol. Res. Lett., 86, 236–244, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220140075, 2014.
Báez, J. C., Vázquez, J.-T., Camiñas, J. A., and Malouli Idrissi, M. (Eds.): Alboran Sea – Ecosystems and Marine Resources, Springer International Publishing, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65516-7, 2021.
Barani, S., Albarello, D., Massa, M., and Spallarossa, D.: Influence of Twenty Years of Research on Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in Italy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 240–255, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120150276, 2016.
Basili, R., Danciu, L., Beauval, C., Sesetyan, K., Vilanova, S. P., Adamia, S., Arroucau, P., Atanackov, J., Baize, S., Canora, C., Caputo, R., Carafa, M. M. C., Cushing, E. M., Custódio, S., Demircioglu Tumsa, M. B., Duarte, J. C., Ganas, A., García-Mayordomo, J., Gómez de la Peña, L., Gràcia, E., Jamšek Rupnik, P., Jomard, H., Kastelic, V., Maesano, F. E., Martín-Banda, R., Martínez-Loriente, S., Neres, M., Perea, H., Šket Motnikar, B., Tiberti, M. M., Tsereteli, N., Tsironi, V., Vallone, R., Vanneste, K., Zupančič, P., and Giardini, D.: The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3945–3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, 2024.
Benfedda, A., Bouhadad, Y., Boughacha, M. S., Guessoum, N., Abbes, K., and Bezzeghoud, M.: The Oran January 9th (Mw 4.7) and June 6th, 2008 (Mw 5.4) earthquakes: Seismological study and seismotectonic implication, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 169, 103896, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2020.103896, 2020.
Benito, B. and Jiménez, E.: Peligrosidad sísmica, Física Tierra, 11, 13–47, 1999.
Ben-Zion, Y., Lee, W. H. K., Kanamori, H., Jennings, P. C., and Kisslinger, C.: Key formulas in earthquake seismology, Int. Handb. Earthq. Eng. Seismol., 81, 1857–1875, 2003.
Boore, D. M. and Smith, C. E.: Analysis of earthquake recordings obtained from the Seafloor Earthquake Measurement System (SEMS) instruments deployed off the coast of southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89, 260–274, https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0890010260, 1999.
BSSC: NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings and other structures (FEMA 450). Part 1: Provisions., Build. Seism. Saf. Counc. BSSC Natl. Inst. Build. Sci. Wash. DC USA, https://nehrpsearch.nist.gov/article/PB2008-105291/XAB (last access: 25 August 2026), 2004.
Budnitz, R. J., Apostolakis, G., and Boore, D. M.: Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Washington, DC (United States). Div. of Engineering Technology; Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington DC (United States), https://doi.org/10.2172/479072, 1997.
Buforn, E. and Udías, A.: Sismicidad y mecanismo focal de los terremotos de la región Cabo de San Vicente-Argelia, Rev. Soc. Geológica Esp., 20, 301–310, 2007.
Buforn, E., Sanz de Galdeano, C., and Udías, A.: Seismotectonics of the Ibero-Maghrebian region, Tectonophysics, 248, 247–261, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(94)00276-F, 1995.
Buforn, E., Udías, A., and Pro, C.: Large Earthquakes at the Ibero-Maghrebian Region: Basis for an EEWS, Pure Appl. Geophys., 172, 2387–2396, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0954-0, 2015.
Buforn, E., Udías, A., and Pro, C.: Source mechanism studies of earthquakes in the Ibero-Maghrebian region and their tectonic implications, J. Seismol., 20, 1075–1088, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-015-9551-7, 2016.
Burden, R. L., Faires, J. D., and Burden, A. M.: Numerical Analysis, 10th edn., Cengage Learning, Boston, MA, 912 pp., ISBN 9781305253667, 2015.
Campbell, K. W. and Bozorgnia, Y.: Updated Near-Source Ground-Motion (Attenuation) Relations for the Horizontal and Vertical Components of Peak Ground Acceleration and Acceleration Response Spectra, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 93, 314–331, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120020029, 2003.
Candia, G., Macedo, J., Jaimes, M. A., and Magna‐Verdugo, C.: A New State‐of‐the‐Art Platform for Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment, Seismol. Res. Lett., 90, 2262–2275, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190025, 2019.
CEN: Eurocode 8: design of structures for earthquake resistance – part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings, Eur. Comm. Stand. CEN Bruss., BS EN 1998–1:2004: E, 219, https://www.confinedmasonry.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Eurocode-8-1-Earthquakes-general.pdf (last access: 25 August 2026), 2004.
Chen, B., Wang, D., Li, H., Sun, Z., and Shi, Y.: Characteristics of Earthquake Ground Motion on the Seafloor, J. Earthq. Eng., 19, 874–904, https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2015.1006344, 2015.
Chen, B., Wang, B., Ma, Z., Du, Y., and Li, C.: Influence of seawater depth on offshore ground motion characteristics and seismic responses of sea-crossing cable-stayed bridges, Ocean Eng., 280, 114853, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114853, 2023.
Chen, B., Wang, B., Hu, S., and Bi, K.: The influence of seabed on offshore ground motion, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 179, 108567, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2024.108567, 2024a.
Chen, W., Lin, J., Zheng, Y., Su, L., Chen, G., and Huang, L.: Nonlinear seismic response of seabed with terrain variation and seawater-seabed coupling, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 180, 108579, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2024.108579, 2024b.
Chen, Y.-S., Weatherill, G., Pagani, M., and Cotton, F.: A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment, Geophys. J. Int., 213, 1263–1280, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy005, 2018.
Chester, D. K.: The 1755 Lisbon earthquake, Prog. Phys. Geogr. Earth Environ., 25, 363–383, https://doi.org/10.1177/030913330102500304, 2001.
Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer, London, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0, 2001.
Coppersmith, K. J. and Youngs, R. R.: Capturing uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments within intraplate tectonic environments, in: Proceedings of the Third US national conference on earthquake engineering, Vol. 1, Charleston, South Carolina, USA, 24-28 August, 301–312, ISBN 0943198070, 1986.
Cornell, C. A.: Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 1583–1606, https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0580051583, 1968.
Cornell, C. A., Howells, D. A., Haigh, I. P., and Taylor, C.: Probabilistic analysis of damage to structures under seismic loads, Dyn. Waves Civ. Eng., 473–488, 1971.
Crespo, M. J., Martínez, F., and Martí, J.: Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with kernel functions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1309–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1309-2014, 2014.
Custódio, S., Lima, V., Vales, D., Cesca, S., and Carrilho, F.: Imaging active faulting in a region of distributed deformation from the joint clustering of focal mechanisms and hypocentres: Application to the Azores–western Mediterranean region, Tectonophysics, 676, 70–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2016.03.013, 2016.
D'Acremont, E., Lafuerza, S., Rabaute, A., Lafosse, M., Jollivet Castelot, M., Gorini, C., Alonso, B., Ercilla, G., Vazquez, J. T., Vandorpe, T., Juan, C., Migeon, S., Ceramicola, S., Lopez-Gonzalez, N., Rodriguez, M., El Moumni, B., Benmarha, O., and Ammar, A.: Distribution and origin of submarine landslides in the active margin of the southern Alboran Sea (Western Mediterranean Sea), Mar. Geol., 445, 106739, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2022.106739, 2022.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C., Basili, R., Weatherill, G., Beauval, C., Rovida, A., Vilanova, S., Sesetyan, K., Bard, P.-Y., Cotton, F., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: Main Datasets of the 2020 Update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), EFEHR Eur. Facil. Earthq. Hazard Risk [data set], https://doi.org/10.12686/ESHM20-MAIN-DATASETS, 2021a.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C., Wiemer, S., and Giardini, D.: OpenQuake Input Files for the 2020 Update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), EFEHR Eur. Facil. Earthq. Hazard Risk [data set], https://doi.org/10.12686/ESHM20-OQ-INPUT, 2021b.
Danciu, L., Nandan, S., Reyes, C. G., Basili, R., Weatherill, G., Beauval, C., Rovida, A., Vilanova, S., Sesetyan, K., and Bard, P.-Y.: The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model-ESHM20: Model Overview, EFEHR Tech. Rep., 1, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000590386, 2021c.
Danciu, L., Giardini, D., Weatherill, G., Basili, R., Nandan, S., Rovida, A., Beauval, C., Bard, P.-Y., Pagani, M., Reyes, C. G., Sesetyan, K., Vilanova, S., Cotton, F., and Wiemer, S.: The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3049–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024, 2024.
Dhakal, Y. P. and Kunugi, T.: Preliminary analysis of nonlinear site response at the S-net seafloor sites during three Mw 7 class earthquakes, Front. Earth Sci., 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1180289, 2023.
Dhakal, Y. P., Kunugi, T., Suzuki, W., Kimura, T., Morikawa, N., and Aoi, S.: Strong Motions on Land and Ocean Bottom: Comparison of Horizontal PGA, PGV, and 5 % Damped Acceleration Response Spectra in Northeast Japan and the Japan Trench Area, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 111, 3237–3260, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200368, 2021.
Dhakal, Y. P., Kubo, H., and Kunugi, T.: Prediction Equations for Peak-Ground Accelerations and Velocities in Northeast Japan Using the S-net Data, J. Disaster Res., 19, 760–771, https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0760, 2024.
Diao, H., Hu, J., and Xie, L.: Effect of seawater on incident plane P and SV waves at ocean bottom and engineering characteristics of offshore ground motion records off the coast of southern California, USA, Earthq. Eng. Eng. Vib., 13, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11803-014-0222-4, 2014.
Douglas, J.: Ground motion prediction equations 1964–2023 [online resource], https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.26827750, 2024.
EPRI: Seismic hazard methodology for the central and eastern United States, Seysmicity Own. Group Electr. Power Res. Inst. EPRI, P101-38-45–46, 2256–14, Report NP-472, 1987.
Epstein, B. and Lomnitz, C.: A Model for the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes, Nature, 211, 954–956, https://doi.org/10.1038/211954b0, 1966.
Ercilla, G., Casas, D., Alonso, B., Casalbore, D., Galindo-Zaldívar, J., García-Gil, S., Martorelli, E., Vázquez, J.-T., Azpiroz-Zabala, M., DoCouto, D., Estrada, F., Fernández-Puga, M. C., González-Castillo, L., González-Vida, J. M., Idárraga-García, J., Juan, C., Macías, J., Madarieta-Txurruka, A., Nespereira, J., Palomino, D., Sánchez-Guillamón, O., Tendero-Salmerón, V., Teixeira, M., Valencia, J., and Yenes, M.: Offshore Geological Hazards: Charting the Course of Progress and Future Directions, Oceans, 2, 393–428, https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2020023, 2021.
Fernandes, R. M. S., Miranda, J. M., Meijninger, B. M. L., Bos, M. S., Noomen, R., Bastos, L., Ambrosius, B. A. C., and Riva, R. E. M.: Surface velocity field of the Ibero-Maghrebian segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary, Geophys. J. Int., 169, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03252.x, 2007.
Fonseca, J. F. B. D.: A Reassessment of the Magnitude of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 110, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120190198, 2020.
García-Fernández, M., Vaccari, F., Jiménez, M.-J., Magrin, A., Romanelli, F., and Panza, G. F.: Chapter 24 – Regional application of the NDSHA approach for continental seismogenic sources in the Iberian Peninsula, in: Earthquakes and Sustainable Infrastructure, edited by: Panza, G. F., Kossobokov, V. G., Laor, E., and De Vivo, B., Elsevier, 491–514, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-823503-4.00006-3, 2022.
García Mayordomo, J.: Creación de un modelo de zonas sismogénicas para el cálculo del Mapa de Peligrosidad Sísmica de España, CSIC - Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME), ISBN 9788478409648, 2015.
GEBCO Bathymetric Compilation Group 2024: The GEBCO_2024 Grid – a continuous terrain model of the global oceans and land, NERC EDS British Oceanographic Data Centre NOC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5285/1c44ce99-0a0d-5f4f-e063-7086abc0ea0f, 2024.
GGS Geo Consultancy: EMODNET Bathymetry World Base Layer version 1, EMODnet Bathymetry Consortium [data set], https://doi.org/10.12770/386fe2aa-84c4-4cea-9e22-fcba4d5f2e75, 2024.
Goded, T., Buforn, E., and Muñoz, D.: The 1494 and 1680 Málaga (Southern Spain) Earthquakes, Seismol. Res. Lett., 79, 707–715, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.79.5.707, 2008.
Gonzalez-Castillo, L., Galindo-Zaldivar, J., de Lacy, M. C., Borque, M. J., Martinez-Moreno, F. J., García-Armenteros, J. A., and Gil, A. J.: Active rollback in the Gibraltar Arc: Evidences from CGPS data in the western Betic Cordillera, Tectonophysics, 663, 310–321, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2015.03.010, 2015.
Grasso, S. and Maugeri, M.: The Seismic Microzonation of the City of Catania (Italy) for the Etna Scenario Earthquake (M=6.2) of 20 February 1818, Earthq. Spectra, 28, 573–594, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000013, 2012.
Grevemeyer, I., Lange, D., Villinger, H., Custódio, S., and Matias, L.: Seismotectonics of the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain and Gorringe Bank, eastern Atlantic Ocean: Constraints from ocean bottom seismometer data, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 122, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013586, 2017.
Guo, Z., Hong, Y., and Jeng, D.-S.: Structure–Seabed Interactions in Marine Environments, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 9, 972, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9090972, 2021.
Gutscher, M.-A., Malod, J., Rehault, J.-P., Contrucci, I., Klingelhoefer, F., Mendes-Victor, L., and Spakman, W.: Evidence for active subduction beneath Gibraltar, Geology, 30, 1071–1074, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2002)030<1071:EFASBG>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Hamidatou, M., Hallal, N., Lebdioui, S., Agius, M. R., and Sawires, R.: Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessments for Northeast Algeria: Insights into the Damaging Impact of the August 7, 2020 (Mw 5.0) Mila Earthquake, Pure Appl. Geophys., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-024-03593-y, 2024.
Herraiz, M., De Vicente, G., Lindo-Ñaupari, R., Giner, J., Simón, J. L., González-Casado, J. M., Vadillo, O., Rodríguez-Pascua, M. A., Cicuéndez, J. I., Casas, A., Cabañas, L., Rincón, P., Cortés, A. L., Ramírez, M., and Lucini, M.: The recent (upper Miocene to Quaternary) and present tectonic stress distributions in the Iberian Peninsula, Tectonics, 19, 762–786, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000TC900006, 2000.
Hu, J., Tan, J., and Zhao, J. X.: New GMPEs for the Sagami Bay Region in Japan for Moderate Magnitude Events with Emphasis on Differences on Site Amplifications at the Seafloor and Land Seismic Stations of K‐NET, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 110, 2577–2597, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120190305, 2020.
Hu, J., Zhang, W., Hu, L., Ding, L., and Tan, J.: Regional offshore ground motion prediction model from a referenced empirical approach: A case study in the Japan Trench area, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 174, 108196, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2023.108196, 2023.
Hu, L., Li, Y., and Ji, S.: An offshore non-ergodic ground motion model for subduction earthquakes in Japan Trench area, Earthq. Spectra, 40, 379–419, https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231207118, 2024.
Idriss, I. M.: Earthquake Ground Motions at Soft Soil Sites, Int. Conf. Recent Adv. Geotech. Earthq. Eng. Soil Dyn., https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/icrageesd/02icrageesd/session12/3 (last access: 25 August 2026), 1991.
IGN: National Geographic Institute (IGN), Geology and tectonics of Gulf of Cadiz, https://www.ign.es/web/resources/sismologia/tproximos/sismotectonica/pag_sismotectonicas/golfocadiz.html (last access: 24 August 2026), 2025a.
IGN: National Geographic Institute (IGN), Geology and tectonics of Alboran basin, https://www.ign.es/web/resources/sismologia/tproximos/sismotectonica/pag_sismotectonicas/alboran.html (last access: 24 August 2026), 2025b.
IGN: National Geographic Institute (IGN), Spanish Seismic Catalogue, https://doi.org/10.7419/162.03.2022, 2025c.
IGN-UPM: Actualización de mapas de peligrosidad sísmica de España 2012, Inst. Geográfico Nac. IGN, 267, https://doi.org/10.7419/162.05.2017, 2017.
Kanazawa, T.: Japan Trench earthquake and tsunami monitoring network of cable-linked 150 ocean bottom observatories and its impact to earth disaster science, in: 2013 IEEE International Underwater Technology Symposium (UT), 2013 IEEE International Underwater Technology Symposium (UT), 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1109/UT.2013.6519911, 2013.
Kanazawa, T., Uehira, K., Mochizuki, M., Shinbo, T., Fujimoto, H., Noguchi, S., Kunugi, T., Shiomi, K., Aoi, S., and Matsumoto, T.: S-net project, cabled observation network for earthquakes and tsunamis, Abstract WE2B–3 presented at SubOptic 2016, Suboptic, Dubai, 18–21 April, https://suboptic.org/ (last access: 25 August 2026), 2016.
Kariche, J., Meghraoui, M., Timoulali, Y., Cetin, E., and Toussaint, R.: The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poroelasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region, Geophys. J. Int., 212, 42–53, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx385, 2018.
Karthigeyan, V.: A review of current practice and future trends in the design of offshore installations to withstand seismic hazard, in: Seismic Design and Practice into the Next Century, Routledge, London, https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203740026-41, 2022.
Kee, T. K., Cheok, C. J., Kamarudin, M. A., Ahmad, S. W., and Suryanti, R.: Seismic Effect of the Offshore Structure Under Different Earthquake Loadings, Int. J. Integr. Eng., 15, 256–262, https://doi.org/10.30880/ijie.2023.15.02.025, 2023.
Khellafi, A. M., Harichane, Z., Afra, H., and Sadouki, A.: A Case Study of Accelerometric Records Analysis of May 21st, 2003, Boumerdes (Algeria) Earthquake, Int. J. Geotech. Earthq. Eng. IJGEE, 4, 34–52, https://doi.org/10.4018/ijgee.2013070103, 2013.
Kijko, A.: Seismic Hazard, in: Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, edited by: Gupta, H. K., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10475-7_10-1, 2019.
Kiureghian, A. D. and Ditlevsen, O.: Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?, Struct. Saf., 31, 105–112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.020, 2009.
Kossobokov, V. and Panza, G.: Seismic roulette: Hazards and risks, Terra Nova, 34, 475–494, https://doi.org/10.1111/ter.12617, 2022.
Kotha, S. R., Weatherill, G., Bindi, D., and Cotton, F.: A regionally-adaptable ground-motion model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Europe, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 18, 4091–4125, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00869-1, 2020.
Kramer, S. L.: Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice-Hall Civ. Eng. Eng. Mech. Ser. Prentice Hall Up. Saddle River, 653, ISBN 9780133749434, 1996.
Krinitzsky, E. L.: Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for critical structures, Eng. Geol., 40, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(95)00031-3, 1995.
Krinitzsky, E. L.: How to obtain earthquake ground motions for engineering design, Eng. Geol., 65, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00098-9, 2002.
Kumar, V., Khan, P. K., Sarkar, R., and Pal, S. K.: Seismic hazard assessment of Faizabad region of Uttar Pradesh, India, utilizing deterministic and probabilistic approaches, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 134, 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-024-02451-8, 2024.
Lafuerza, S., Sultan, N., Canals, M., Lastras, G., Cattaneo, A., Frigola, J., Costa, S., and Berndt, C.: Failure mechanisms of Ana Slide from geotechnical evidence, Eivissa Channel, Western Mediterranean Sea, Mar. Geol., 307–310, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2012.02.010, 2012.
Lan, J., Liu, J., and Song, X.: Study on the influence of the seafloor soft soil layer on seismic ground motion, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 577–585, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-577-2021, 2021.
Leprêtre, R., Frizon de Lamotte, D., Combier, V., Gimeno-Vives, O., Mohn, G., and Eschard, R.: The Tell-Rif orogenic system (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) and the structural heritage of the southern Tethys margin, BSGF-Earth Sci. Bull., 189, 10, https://doi.org/10.1051/bsgf/2018009, 2018.
Li, C., Diao, Y.-C., Li, R.-H., Pan, H.-Y., Han, Q., and Li, H.-N.: Effect of soil spatial variability on characteristics of depth-varying multi-support seismic motions at offshore sites, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 174, 108195, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2023.108195, 2023.
Liu, H., Yang, Y., and Peng, J.: A Unified Model for Analyzing Comprehensive Behaviors of Deepwater Anchors, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 9, 913, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9080913, 2021.
López Arroyo, A. and Udías, A.: Aftershock sequence and focal parameters of the February 28, 1969 earthquake of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 62, 699–719, https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0620030699, 1972.
Martín-Dávila, J. and Pazos, A.: Sismicidad del Golfo de Cadiz y zonas adyacentes, Física Tierra ISSN 0214-4557 No. 15 2003, Pags 189–210, https://revistas.ucm.es/index.php/FITE/article/view/FITE0303110213A/11828 (last access: 25 August 2026), 2003.
Martínez-Loriente, S., Gràcia, E., Bartolome, R., Sallarès, V., Connors, C., Perea, H., Lo Iacono, C., Klaeschen, D., Terrinha, P., Dañobeitia, J. J., and Zitellini, N.: Active deformation in old oceanic lithosphere and significance for earthquake hazard: Seismic imaging of the Coral Patch Ridge area and neighboring abyssal plains (SW Iberian Margin), Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 14, 2206–2231, https://doi.org/10.1002/ggge.20173, 2013.
Martín Míguez, B., Novellino, A., Vinci, M., Claus, S., Calewaert, J.-B., Vallius, H., Schmitt, T., Pititto, A., Giorgetti, A., Askew, N., Iona, S., Schaap, D., Pinardi, N., Harpham, Q., Kater, B. J., Populus, J., She, J., Palazov, A. V., McMeel, O., Oset, P., Lear, D., Manzella, G. M. R., Gorringe, P., Simoncelli, S., Larkin, K., Holdsworth, N., Arvanitidis, C. D., Molina Jack, M. E., Chaves Montero, M. del M., Herman, P. M. J., and Hernandez, F.: The European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet): Visions and Roles of the Gateway to Marine Data in Europe, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00313, 2019.
Mayer, L., Jakobsson, M., Allen, G., Dorschel, B., Falconer, R., Ferrini, V., Lamarche, G., Snaith, H., and Weatherall, P.: The Nippon Foundation – GEBCO Seabed 2030 Project: The Quest to See the World's Oceans Completely Mapped by 2030, Geosciences, 8, 63, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8020063, 2018.
McGuire, R. K.: FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis, US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr7667, 1976.
McGuire, R. K.: Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, Engineering Monographs on Miscellaneous Earthquake Engineering Topics, MNO-10, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, California, xvii+221 pp., ISBN 9780943198019, https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/9861507 (last access: 25 August 2026), 2004.
McGuire, R. K.: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Early history, Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 37, 329–338, https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.765, 2008.
McGuire, R. K. and Shedlock, K. M.: Statistical uncertainties in seismic hazard evaluations in the United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 71, 1287–1308, https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article-abstract/71/4/1287/102122/Statistical-uncertainties-in-seismic-hazard (last access: 24 August 2026), 1981.
Mendes-Victor, L. A., Oliveira, C. S., Azevedo, J., and Ribeiro, A.: The 1755 Lisbon Earthquake: Revisited, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8609-0, 2009.
Molina Palacios, S.: Sismotectónica y peligrosidad sísmica del área de contacto entre Iberia y África, Universidad de Granada, http://hdl.handle.net/10481/53680 (last access: 24 August 2026), 1998.
Morikawa, N. and Fujiwara, H.: A New Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Japan Applicable up to M9 Mega-Earthquake, J. Disaster Res., 8, 878–888, https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2013.p0878, 2013.
Mostafa, S. I., Abdelhafiez, H. E., and Abd el-aal, A. el-aziz K.: Deterministic scenarios for seismic hazard assessment in Egypt, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 160, 103655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2019.103655, 2019.
Mourabit, T., Abou Elenean, K. M., Ayadi, A., Benouar, D., Ben Suleman, A., Bezzeghoud, M., Cheddadi, A., Chourak, M., ElGabry, M. N., Harbi, A., Hfaiedh, M., Hussein, H. M., Kacem, J., Ksentini, A., Jabour, N., Magrin, A., Maouche, S., Meghraoui, M., Ousadou, F., Panza, G. F., Peresan, A., Romdhane, N., Vaccari, F., and Zuccolo, E.: Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa, J. Seismol., 18, 301–318, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-013-9375-2, 2014.
Musson, R. M. W.: Probability in PSHA: Reply to “Comment on `PSHA Validated by Quasi-Observational Means' by Z. Wang,” Seismol. Res. Lett., 83, 717–719, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220120036, 2012a.
Musson, R. M. W.: PSHA Validated by Quasi Observational Means, Seismol. Res. Lett., 83, 130–134, https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.83.1.130, 2012b.
Nakamura, T., Takenaka, H., Okamoto, T., Ohori, M., and Tsuboi, S.: Long-period ocean-bottom motions in the source areas of large subduction earthquakes, Sci. Rep., 5, 16648, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16648, 2015.
Nakanishi, R. and Takemura, S.: Development of an offshore ground motion prediction equation for peak ground acceleration considering path effects based on S-net data, Earth Planets Space, 76, 146, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-024-02078-5, 2024.
Neres, M., Carafa, M. M. C., Fernandes, R. M. S., Matias, L., Duarte, J. C., Barba, S., and Terrinha, P.: Lithospheric deformation in the Africa-Iberia plate boundary: Improved neotectonic modeling testing a basal-driven Alboran plate, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth, 121, 6566–6596, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013012, 2016.
Nishikawa, T., Ide, S., and Nishimura, T.: A review on slow earthquakes in the Japan Trench, Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., 10, 1, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-022-00528-w, 2023.
Nocquet, J.-M.: Present-day kinematics of the Mediterranean: A comprehensive overview of GPS results, Tectonophysics, 579, 220–242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.03.037, 2012.
NRC: Reactor site criteria. Appendix a: seismic and geology siting criteria for nuclear power plants, US Nucl. Regul. Comm. NRC Regul. Guide 10CFR100, https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-10/chapter-I/part-100/appendix-Appendix A to Part 100 (last access: 25 August 2026), 1973.
Olaiz, A., Álvarez Gómez, J. A., de Vicente, G., Muñoz-Martín, A., Cantavella, J. V., Custódio, S., Vales, D., and Heidbach, O.: Onshore and offshore seismotectonics of Iberia: an updated review, Solid Earth, 16, 947–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-16-947-2025, 2025.
Orozova, I. M. and Suhadolc, P.: A deterministic–probabilistic approach for seismic hazard assessment, Tectonophysics, 312, 191–202, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(99)00162-6, 1999.
Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M., and Vigano, D.: OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model, Seismol. Res. Lett., 85, 692–702, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087, 2014.
Palano, M., González, P. J., and Fernández, J.: Strain and stress fields along the Gibraltar Orogenic Arc: Constraints on active geodynamics, Gondwana Res., 23, 1071–1088, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2012.05.021, 2013.
Panza, G. F., Prozorov, A. G., and Suhadolc, P.: Lithosphere structure and statistical properties of seismicity in Italy and surrounding regions, J. Geodyn., 12, 189–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/0264-3707(90)90007-H, 1990.
Poggi, V., Garcia-Peláez, J., Styron, R., Pagani, M., and Gee, R.: A probabilistic seismic hazard model for North Africa, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 18, 2917–2951, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00820-4, 2020.
Ramkrishnan, R., Kolathayar, S., and Sitharam, T. G.: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of North and Central Himalayas using regional ground motion prediction equations, Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ., 80, 8137–8157, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02434-9, 2021.
Randolph, M. and Gourvenec, S.: Offshore Geotechnical Engineering, CRC Press, London, 560 pp., https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315272474, 2017.
Reilly, W. I., Fredrich, G., Hein, G. W., Landau, H., Almazán, J. L., and Caturla, J. L.: Geodetic determination of crustal deformation across the Strait of Gibraltar, Geophys. J. Int., 111, 391–398, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00585.x, 1992.
Reiter, L.: Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights, Columbia University Press, 254 pp., ISBN 0231065345, 1990.
Ritsema, J., Lay, T., and Kanamori, H.: The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Elements, 8, 183–188, https://doi.org/10.2113/gselements.8.3.183, 2012.
Rodriguez, M., Maleuvre, C., Jollivet-Castelot, M., d'Acremont, E., Rabaute, A., Lafosse, M., Ercilla, G., Vázquez, J.-T., Alonso, B., Ammar, A., and Gorini, C.: Tsunamigenic submarine landslides along the Xauen–Tofiño banks in the Alboran Sea (Western Mediterranean Sea), Geophys. J. Int., 209, 266–281, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx028, 2017.
Román-de la Sancha, A., Silva, R., Areu-Rangel, O. S., Verduzco-Zapata, M. G., Mendoza, E., López-Acosta, N. P., Ossa, A., and García, S.: Modelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructure, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022.
Rui, S., Zhang, H., Xu, H., Zha, X., Xu, M., and Shen, K.: Seabed structures and foundations related to deep-sea resource development: A review based on design and research, Deep Undergr. Sci. Eng., 3, 131–148, https://doi.org/10.1002/dug2.12042, 2024.
Sá, L. F., Morales-Esteban, A., and Neyra, P. D.: A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville, Arab. J. Geosci., 14, 2392, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08626-7, 2021.
Salgado Gálvez, M. A., Cardona Arboleda, O. D., Carreño Tibaduiza, M. L., and Barbat Barbat, H. A.: Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment in Spain: national and local level case studies, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), ISBN 9788499330773, 2015.
Shan, Z., Wu, H., Ni, W., Sun, M., Wang, K., Zhao, L., Lou, Y., Liu, A., Xie, W., Zheng, X., and Guo, X.: Recent Technological and Methodological Advances for the Investigation of Submarine Landslides, J. Mar. Sci. Eng., 10, 1728, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10111728, 2022.
Silva, P. G., Elez, J., Giner-Robles, J., Perez-Lopez, R., Roquero, E., Rodriguez-Pascua, M., Azcárate, T., and Martínez-Graña, A.: ANÁLISIS GEOLÓGICO DEL TERREMOTO DE TORREVIEJA DE 1829 (ALICANTE, SE ESPAÑA), https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=7398200 (last access: 25 August 2026), 2019.
Silva, V., Crowley, H., Pagani, M., Monelli, D., and Pinho, R.: Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model's open-source software for seismic risk assessment, Nat. Hazards, 72, 1409–1427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0618-x, 2014.
Stich, D., Batlló, J., Morales, J., Macià, R., and Dineva, S.: Source parameters of the MW = 6.1 1910 Adra earthquake (southern Spain), Geophys. J. Int., 155, 539–546, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.02059.x, 2003.
Sultan, N., Gaudin, M., Berne, S., Canals, M., Urgeles, R., and Lafuerza, S.: Analysis of slope failures in submarine canyon heads: An example from the Gulf of Lions, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JF000408, 2007.
Tan, J. and Hu, J.: Offshore ground motion characteristics on the horizontal PGA, spectral acceleration, frequency content and significant duration from the 2021 Mw 7.1 and 2022 Mw 7.4 offshore earthquakes near the Japan Trench area, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 164, 107646, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2022.107646, 2023.
TeleGeography: Submarine Cable Map, https://www.submarinecablemap.com/ (last access: 25 August 2026), 2026.
Terrinha, P., Matias, L., Vicente, J., Duarte, J., Luís, J., Pinheiro, L., Lourenço, N., Diez, S., Rosas, F., Magalhães, V., Valadares, V., Zitellini, N., Roque, C., and Víctor, L. M.: Morphotectonics and strain partitioning at the Iberia–Africa plate boundary from multibeam and seismic reflection data, Mar. Geol., 267, 156–174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2009.09.012, 2009.
Udias, A. and Muñoz, D.: The Andalusian earthquake of 25 December 1884, Tectonophysics, 53, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(79)90074-X, 1979.
Vázquez, J.-T., Ercilla, G., Alonso, B., Peláez, J. A., Palomino, D., León, R., Bárcenas, P., Casas, D., Estrada, F., Fernández-Puga, M. C., Galindo-Zaldívar, J., Henares, J., Llorente, M., Sánchez-Guillamón, O., d'Acremont, E., Ammar, A., Chourak, M., Fernández-Salas, L. M., López-González, N., and Lafuerza, S.: Triggering Mechanisms of Tsunamis in the Gulf of Cadiz and the Alboran Sea: An Overview, in: Historical Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Archaeology in the Iberian Peninsula, edited by: Álvarez-Martí-Aguilar, M. and Machuca Prieto, F., Springer Nature, Singapore, 65–104, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1979-4_4, 2022.
Veiskarami, M., Neshaei, M. A. L., Karimpour Fard, M., and Pourramezan, T.: Numerical study on static and seismic stability of breakwaters on soft granular marine deposits against deep failure, Mar. Georesources Geotechnol., 35, 42–51, https://doi.org/10.1080/1064119X.2015.1099063, 2017.
Vilanova, S. P. and Fonseca, J. F. B. D.: Seismic hazard impact of the Lower Tagus Valley Fault Zone (SW Iberia), J. Seismol., 8, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOSE.0000038457.01879.b0, 2004.
Vilanova, S. P. and Fonseca, J. F. B. D.: Probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment for Portugal, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97, 1702–1717, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050198, 2007.
Vipin, K. S.: Assessment Of Seismic Hazard With Local Site Effects: Deterministic And Probabilistic Approaches, Thesis, https://etd.iisc.ac.in/handle/2005/1973 (last access: 26 August 2026), 2013.
Wang, B., Hu, S., Song, G., and Chen, B.: The Influences of the Offshore Ground Motion and Site Factors on the Seismic Response of Immersed Tunnels, Int. J. Struct. Stab. Dyn., 24, 2450276, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219455424502766, 2024.
Wang, J.-P., Huang, D., and Yang, Z.: Deterministic seismic hazard map for Taiwan developed using an in-house Excel-based program, Comput. Geosci., 48, 111–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2012.05.014, 2012.
Wang, Z.: Comment on “PSHA Validated by Quasi Observational Means” by R. M. W. Musson, Seismol. Res. Lett., 83, 714–716, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220120016, 2012.
Wang, Z. and Cobb, J. C.: A critique of probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis with special reference to the New Madrid seismic zone, Recent Adv. North Am. Paleoseismology Neotectonics East Rock, https://doi.org/10.1130/2012.2493(13), 2012.
Weatherill, G. and Cotton, F.: A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe: regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 18, 6119–6148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00940-x, 2020.
Wössner, J., Laurentiu, D., Giardini, D., Crowley, H., Cotton, F., Grünthal, G., Valensise, G., Arvidsson, R., Basili, R., Demircioglu, M. B., Hiemer, S., Meletti, C., Musson, R. W., Rovida, A. N., Sesetyan, K., Stucchi, M., and The SHARE Consortium: The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 13, 3553–3596, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1, 2015.
Zhang, Q. and Zheng, X. Y.: Temporal and spectral characteristics of seismic ground motions: Offshore versus onshore, Mar. Struct., 74, 102812, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2020.102812, 2020.
Zhao, J. X., Zhang, J., Asano, A., Ohno, Y., Oouchi, T., Takahashi, T., Ogawa, H., Irikura, K., Thio, H. K., Somerville, P. G., Fukushima, Y., and Fukushima, Y.: Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominant Period, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 898–913, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122, 2006.
Short summary
The Ibero-Maghrebian region has experienced major natural disasters affecting the coasts of the southern Iberian Peninsula and North Africa. This study presents a seismic hazard assessment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches across the marine strip between west Gulf of Cádiz and east Alboran Sea. The expected peak ground accelerations (PGA) exceed 1 g in certain submarine areas, indicating a high potential for earthquakes in the region and poses a risk to subsea infrastructures.
The Ibero-Maghrebian region has experienced major natural disasters affecting the coasts of the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint