Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4045-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Collection:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4045-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Brief communication
 | 
26 Aug 2026
Brief communication |  | 26 Aug 2026

Brief communication: Towards defining the worst-case breach scenarios and potential flood volumes for moraine-dammed lake outbursts

Adam Emmer, Ashim Sattar, and Jan Hrebrina

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Cited articles

Allen, S. K., Sattar, A., King, O., Zhang, G., Bhattacharya, A., Yao, T., and Bolch, T.: Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022. 
Bazai, N. A., Carling, P. A., Cui, P., Hao, W., Guotao, Z., Dingzhu, L., and Hassan, J.: Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation, The Cryosphere, 18, 5921–5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5921-2024, 2024. 
Emmer, A.: Understanding the risk of glacial lake outburst floods in the twenty-first century, Nat. Water, 2, 608–610, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00254-1, 2024. 
Emmer, A., Allen, S. K., Carey, M., Frey, H., Huggel, C., Korup, O., Mergili, M., Sattar, A., Veh, G., Chen, T. Y., Cook, S. J., Correas-Gonzalez, M., Das, S., Diaz Moreno, A., Drenkhan, F., Fischer, M., Immerzeel, W. W., Izagirre, E., Joshi, R. C., Kougkoulos, I., Kuyakanon Knapp, R., Li, D., Majeed, U., Matti, S., Moulton, H., Nick, F., Piroton, V., Rashid, I., Reza, M., Ribeiro de Figueiredo, A., Riveros, C., Shrestha, F., Shrestha, M., Steiner, J., Walker-Crawford, N., Wood, J. L., and Yde, J. C.: Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022. 
Frank, P.-J.: Hydraulics of spatial dike breaches, Doctoral thesis, ETH Zurich, VAW Mitteilung 236, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010803310, 2016. 
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are major concern in high mountain regions across the globe and effective disaster risk management requires predictive modelling which needs various input data including potential flood volume. Building on the analysis of breached channels of largest documented GLOFs originating from moraine dam failures, we present new methodology that estimates maximum breach depth and so potential flood volumes of moraine-dammed lake outbursts.
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