Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3597-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3597-2026
Research article
 | 
04 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 04 Aug 2026

Basin-scale geometric focusing: a probabilistic-geometric framework for global tsunami exposure assessment and the 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula tsunami

Ali Abdolali, Michael-Angelo Y.-H. Lam, Usama Kadri, Matt Malej, Maxim Filimonov, and Fengyan Shi

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Cited articles

Abdolali, A.: Okeanos ray, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21461088, 2026. a
Abdolali, A. and Kirby, J. T.: Role of Compressibility on Tsunami Propagation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 9780–9794, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013054, 2017. a
Abdolali, A. and Kadri, U.: Phase Speed Modification Across Infragravity to Tidal Bands in a Compressible Ocean over Stratified Elastic Earth with Gravitational Terms, J. Fluid Mech., in review, 2026. a
Abdolali, A., Kadri, U., and Kirby, J. T.: Effect of Water Compressibility, Sea-floor Elasticity, and Field Gravitational Potential on Tsunami Phase Speed, Scientific reports, 9, 16874, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52475-0, 2019. a, b, c
Aki, K.: Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log⁡N=a-bM and its confidence limits, Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 43, 237–239, https://repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/record/33631/files/ji0432001.pdf (last access: 3 December 2025), 1965. a, b
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Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid tsunami risk method that fuses probabilistic hazard assessment with ray tracing to enable rapid global mapping. Using historical tsunamigenic earthquake statistics, it identifies how bathymetry focuses wave energy into convergence hotspots. Validated with the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka and 2011 M9.0 Tohoku events, high-fidelity Boussinesq outputs showed strong observational skill, offering a robust basis for quick hazard evaluation and coastal resilience planning.
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